• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.104-109
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• 2013

The paper will outline how hazard identification and risk evaluation can effectively be performed to obtain Tolerable Hazard Rates (THR). As a target group manufacturers are addressed, who face the situation, that for a generic application THRs are needed for compliance with EN 50129 [1]. Focusing on functional hazards this paper shows a possible hazard log and the relevant analysis methods. The terms safety barrier and barrier function will be introduced and used instead of the term "safety function". As functional hazards and barrier functions depend on each other, emphasis will be put on a comprehensive and detailed definition of barrier functions and the usage of function lists. By using detailed and complete hazard and barrier function definitions THRs can be obtained while at the same time the approach becomes clear how the hazard rates (HR) will be established.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.801-812
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• 1999

Change-point hazard rate models arise for example in applying "burn-in" techniques to screen defective items and in studing times until undesirable side effects occur in clinical trials. Sometimes in screening defectives it might be sensible to model two stages of burn-in. In a clinical trial there might be an initial hazard rate for a side effect which after a period of time changes to an intermediate hazard rate before settling into a long term hazard rate. In this paper we consider the multiple change points hazard rate model. The classical approach's asymptotics can be poor for the small to all moderate sample sizes often encountered in practice. We propose a Bayesian approach avoiding asymptotics to provide more reliable inference conditional only upon the data actually observed. The Bayesian models can be fitted using simulation methods. Model comparison is made using recently developed Bayesian model selection criteria. The above methodology is applied to a generated data and to a generated data and the Lawless(1982) failure times of electrical insulation.

• 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.65-72
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• 2020

In this study, the purpose is to identify the risks of the facilities of packaged hydrogen stations. As a risk identification method, failure mode & effect analysis (FMEA), a qualitative risk assessment, was used to analyze failure mode and effects of component of each facility. The analysis criteria were used to derive the risk priority number (RPN) using the 5-point method according to severity, incidence, and detectability. The study analyzed a total of 141 components of 23 types that can be identified on the design of the packaged hydrogen filling station. As a result, 683 types of failures and their causes and effects were identified. and the RPN was number of a total of 1,485. Of these, 10 failure types with a RPN value of 40 or more were deemed necessary. In addition, a list of failure types with a severity score of 5 was identified and analyzed.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.79-86
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• 2022

Recently, the amount of maintenance is increasing due to the aging of power facilities, but the budget is constrained. Therefore, the importance of asset management that selects replacement priorities based on the failure probability and enhances investment effects is increasing. Because the number of distribution transformers is very large, the proportion of investment cost is very high. Therefore, it is important to select the investment priority by evaluating the reliable remaining life based on the failure probability. This paper evaluates the statistical expected life using the failure data of distribution transformers for the last 11 years and the current operation data. The hazard rate of distribution transformer and MV cable was compared with each other and the adequacy of early failure removal was reviewed and the statistical expected life corresponding to the cumulative failure probability B3% was calculated.

• 한국방재학회 논문집
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• 제10권6호
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• pp.73-80
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• 2010

최저 안전율 또는 최대 파괴확률을 기반으로 하는 기존의 사면안정해석에 대하여, 지반물성과 해석모델이 갖는 고유 불확실성을 최소화하고, 사면안정해석에서 다양한 안정해석모델과 그에 따른 파괴형상을 반영할 수 있도록, 다중 파괴모드를 고려한 사면의 신뢰성해석기법을 제안하였다. 파괴확률의 산정에는 체계 신뢰성해석분야에서 최근 도입된 선형계획법에 의한 최적화를 이용하였다. 이를 통하여 여러 가지 해석모델을 신뢰성 기반으로 동시에 고려하여 해석할 수 있다. 선형계획법에 의한 다중 파괴 모드를 고려한 파괴확률 산정기법을 이용하여 단순 사면의 경사도 결정을 위한 최적 설계를 검토하였다. 그 결과, 동시 파괴확률을 이용하면, 대상으로 하는 사면안정해석모델과 파괴형상 및 파괴확률을 복합적으로 고려할 수 있기 때문에 개선된 안전성을 확보할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국정보전자통신기술학회논문지
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• 제11권6호
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• pp.800-806
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• 2018

소프트웨어 효율성은 운용 환경에서 사용시간에 따라 고장없이 사용할 수 있는 확률이며, 소프트웨어 시스템 안정성에 영향을 미치는 가장 근본적인 요인이다. 정보기술 분야에서 활용되고 있는 컴퓨터 시스템의 오작동은 관련 산업분야에 중요한 손실을 야기할 수도 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 소프트웨어 고장시간 자료를 가지고 유한고장 NHPP 모형에 기반하여 다양한 위험함수에 의존한 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형의 속성을 분석 하였다. 제안한 모형의 위험함수 패턴은 Goel-Okumoto모형은 상수가 되고, Minimax 모형과 Rayleigh모형은 증가패턴을 따르지만, 위험함수의 증가폭은 Minimax 모형이 Rayleigh모형과 Goel-Okumoto모형 보다 작은 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 평균값 함수m(t)의 참값 오차와 평균제곱오차(MSE)는 Minimax 모형이 모두 Rayleigh 모형과 Goel-Okumoto모형 보다 작아서 상대적으로 효율적이였다. 본 연구의 결과는 소프트웨어 개발자에게 위험함수에 관한 기본정보로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2005년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.581-586
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• 2005

In this study, a hazard list is developed for accidents/incidents of Korean railway through identification of the risk sources. The risk sources are classified by the progress of the accidents/incidents, which consists of cause, triggering event, and failure of the safety system. The hazard list of railway accidents/incidents of Korea is then developed through extensive review of both domestic and foreign data for railway accidents/incidents risk sources. The list is refined for each of six subsystems of the railway system, which includes safety management system, operation management, human error and qualification management, installations and equipments, external hazard, and railway level crossing.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2009년도 정기 학술발표대회
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• pp.68.2-68.2
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• 2009

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.421-427
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• 2017

Seismic safety evaluation of weir structure is significant considering the catastrophic economical consequence of operational disruption. In recent years, the seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) has been issued as a key area of research for the hydraulic system to mitigate and manage the risk. The aim of this paper is to assess the seismic probabilistic risk of weir structures employing the seismic hazard and the structural fragility in Korea. At the first stage, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is performed to extract the hazard curve at the weir site using the seismic and geological data. Thereafter, the seismic fragility that defines the probability of structural collapse is evaluated by using the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method in accordance with the four different design limit states as failure identification criteria. Consequently, by combining the seismic hazard and fragility results, the seismic risk curves are developed that contain helpful information for risk management of hydraulic structures. The tensile stress of the mass concrete is found to be more vulnerable than other design criteria. The hazard deaggregation illustrates that moderate size and far source earthquakes are the most likely scenario for the site. In addition, the annual loss curves for two different hazard source models corresponding to design limit states are extracted.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.75-78
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• 2008

Limit states of a tension member are the yielding of gross section, fracture of net section, and block shear failure. Block shear failure is very complicated than other limit state because of interaction of tension and shear failure. Block shear failure is studied continuously since the 1970s. However, failure model to estimate the strength of block shear failure provided in current design specifications is not reflective of the failure mode observed in the various experimental studies. Comparisons between the experimental results and design rules in various specifications about the block shear failure were conducted in this study. Also, the need for further studies of block shear failure were proposed.