• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
• /
• v.27 no.6
• /
• pp.635-642
• /
• 2014

In this paper, an efficient technique is developed to predict failure probability of three failure modes(case rupture, fracture and bolt breakage) related to solid rocket motor case due to the inner pressure during the mission flight. The overall procedure consists of the steps: 1) design parameters affecting the case failure are identified and their uncertainties are modelled by probability distribution, 2) combustion analysis in the interior of the case is carried out to obtain maximum expected operating pressure(MEOP), 3) stress and other structural performances are evaluated by finite element analysis(FEA), and 4) failure probabilities are calculated for the above mentioned failure modes. Axi-symmetric assumption for FEA is employed for simplification while contact between bolted joint is accounted for. Efficient procedure is developed to evaluate failure probability which consists of finding first an Most Probable Failure Point(MPP) using First-Order Reliability Method(FORM), next making a response surface model around the MPP using Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS), and finally calculating failure probability by employing Importance Sampling.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
• /
• v.18 no.4
• /
• pp.205-214
• /
• 2019

Load and resistance factor design of mound breakwater against circular failure was developed in this study. To achieve the goal, uncertainties of parameters of soils, mound, and concrete cap were determined. Eight design cases of domestic mound breakwaters were collected and analyzed. Monte Carlo Simulation was implemented to determine the most critical slip surfaces of the design cases. Using the results of Monte Carlo Simulation, First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) was used to perform reliability analyses. Optimal load and resistance factors were calculated using the reliability analysis results and final load and resistance factors were proposed based on the calculated optimal factors.

• International Journal of Automotive Technology
• /
• v.4 no.3
• /
• pp.135-140
• /
• 2003

In the deterministic optimization of a structural system, objective function, design constraints and design variables, are treated in a nonstatistical fashion. However, such deterministic engineering optimization tends to promote the structural system with lest reliability redundancy than obtained with conventional design procedures using the factor of safety. Consequently, deterministic optimized structures will usually have higher failure probabilities than unoptimized structures. Therefore, a balance must be developed between the satisfactions of the design requirements and the objectives of reducing manufacturing cost. This paper proposes the reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) technique, which enables the optimum design that considers confidence level for the vibration characteristics of structural system. Response surface method (RSM) is utilized to approximate the performance functions describing the system characteristics in the RBDO procedure. The proposed optimization technique is applied to the pillar section design considering natural frequencies of a vehicle structure.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
• /
• v.29 no.9
• /
• pp.71-80
• /
• 2013

This work studies the reliability analysis of a slope that considers multiple failure modes. The analysis consists of two parts. First, significant failure modes that contribute most to system reliability are determined. The so-called barrier method proposed by Der Kiureghian and Dakessian to identify significant failure modes successively is employed. Second, the failure probability for the slope is estimated on the basis of the identified significant failure modes and corresponding design points. For reliability problems entailing multiple design points, failure probability can be estimated by the multi-point first-order reliability method (FORM), Ditlevsen's bounds method, and Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper, a comparative study between these methods has been made through example problems. Analysis results showed that while a soil slope may have a large number of potential slip surfaces, its system failure probability is usually governed by a few significant slip surfaces. Therefore, the most important step in the system reliability analysis for a soil slope is to identify all the significant failure modes in an efficient way.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
• /
• 2006.03a
• /
• pp.988-997
• /
• 2006

In this paper, a reliability-groundwater flow program is developed by coupling the 3-D finite element numerical groundwater flow program with first and second order reliability program. The numerical groundwater program developed called DGU-FLOW is verified by solving the examples of groundwater flow through the underground excavation and comparing the results with those of commercial MODFLOW 3D programs. Reliability routine of the program is also verified by comparing the probability of failure of the flow model from FORM/SORM with that of Monte-Carlo Simulation. The difference of out-flux and total head calculated near the bottom of the excavation using the deterministic 3D groundwater flow and the commercial programs was negligible. The reliability analysis of the groundwater flow showed that the probability of failure from the first and second order reliability method are quite close that of Monte-Carlo Simulation. Therefore, the developed program is considered effective for analyzing the groundwater flow with uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity of the soils.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.12 no.2
• /
• pp.217-227
• /
• 1992

The first and second-order reliability method(FORM and SORM) is presented using one dimensional finite difference and two dimensional finite element transport models. FORM and SORM can be used without any restrictive assumptions about the properties of the media, and the sensitivity information obtained as part of these analyses is used to identify the parameters which have major influence on the estimate of probability. The reliability analysis of transport in a one-dimensional domain is used to test the robustness of the reliability code and to evaluate the accuracy of the reliability method. A continuous source 2-D example with a concentration threshold limit state function is used to evaluate the influence of the parameters in the location of interest on the reliability solution.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.30 no.4
• /
• pp.260-267
• /
• 2016

Considering the effect of dynamic response amplification, a reliability analysis of an offshore wind turbine support structure under an earthquake is presented. A reliability analysis based on the dynamic response requires a large amount of time when using not only a level 3 approach but also level 2 such as a first order reliability method (FORM). Moreover, if a limit state is defined by using the maximum stress at a structural joint where stress concentration occurs, a three-dimensional element should be used in the finite element analysis. This makes the computational load much heavier. To deal with this kind of problem, two techniques are suggested in this paper. One is the application of a quasi-static structural analysis that takes the dynamic amplification effect into account. The other is the use of a stress concentration factor to estimate the maximum local stress. The proposed reliability analysis is performed using a level 2 FORM and verified using a level 3 simulation approach.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.85 no.3
• /
• pp.369-379
• /
• 2023

Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO) is an appropriate framework for obtaining optimal designs by taking uncertainties into account. Large-scale problems with implicit limit state functions and problems with discrete design variables are two significant challenges to traditional RBDO methods. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a hybrid method to perform RBDO of structures that links Firefly Algorithm (FA) as an optimization tool to advanced (finite element) reliability methods. Furthermore, the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and the FA are compared based on the design cost (objective function) they achieve. In the proposed method, Weighted Simulation Method (WSM) is utilized to assess reliability constraints in the RBDO problems with explicit limit state functions. WSM is selected to reduce computational costs. To performing RBDO of structures with finite element modeling and implicit limit state functions, a First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) based on the Direct Differentiation Method (DDM) is utilized. Four numerical examples are considered to assess the effectiveness of the proposed method. The findings illustrate that the proposed RBDO method is applicable and efficient for RBDO problems with discrete and continuous design variables and finite element modeling.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.537-549
• /
• 2001

The effect of partially restrained(PR) connections and the uncertainties in them on the reliability of steel frames subjected to seismic loading is addressed. A stochastic finite element method(SFEM) is proposed combining the concepts of the response surface method(RSM), the finite element method(FEM), the first-order reliability method (FORM), and the iterative linear interpolation scheme. The behavior of PR connections is captured using moment-relative rotation curves, and is represented by the four-parameter Richard model. For seismic excitation, the loading, unloading, and reloading behavior at PR connections is modeled using moment-relative rotation curves and the Masing rule. The seismic loading is applied in the time domain for realistic representation. The reliability of steel frames in the presence of PR connections is calculated considering all major sources of nonlinearity. The algorithm is clarified with the help of an example.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.131-141
• /
• 2019

Structural control systems have uncertainties in their structural parameters and control devices which by using reliability analysis, uncertainty can be modeled. In this paper, reliability of controlled structures equipped with semi-active Magneto-Rheological (MR) dampers is investigated. For this purpose, at first, the effect of the structural parameters and damper parameters on the reliability of the seismic responses are evaluated. Then, the reliability of MR damper force is considered for expected levels of performance. For sensitivity analysis of the parameters exist in Bouc- Wen model for predicting the damper force, the importance vector is utilized. The improved first-order reliability method (FORM), is used to reliability analysis. As a case study, an 11-story shear building equipped with 3 MR dampers is selected and numerically obtained experimental data of a 1000 kN MR damper is assumed to study the reliability of the MR damper performance for expected levels. The results show that the standard deviation of random variables affects structural reliability as an uncertainty factor. Thus, the effect of uncertainty existed in the structural model parameters on the reliability of the structure is more than the uncertainty in the damper parameters. Also, the reliability analysis of the MR damper performance show that to achieve the highest levels of nominal capacity of the damper, the probability of failure is greatly increased. Furthermore, by using sensitivity analysis, the Bouc-Wen model parameters which have great importance in predicting damper force can be identified.