• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.253-258
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to find suitable probability distribution function of complex distribution data like multimodal. Normal distribution is broadly used to assume probability distribution function. However, complex distribution data like multimodal are very hard to be estimated by using normal distribution function only, and there might be errors when other distribution functions including normal distribution function are used. In this study, we experimented to find fit probability distribution function in multimodal area, by using AIS(Automatic Identification System) observation data gathered in Mokpo port for a year of 2013. By using chi-squared statistic, gaussian mixture model(GMM) is the fittest model rather than other distribution functions, such as extreme value, generalized extreme value, logistic, and normal distribution. GMM was found to the fit model regard to multimodal data of maritime traffic flow distribution. Probability density function for collision probability and traffic flow distribution will be calculated much precisely in the future.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
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• pp.201-201
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• 2016

The asymptotic extreme value distributions of maxima are a natural choice when designing against future extreme events like flood peaks or wave heights, given a stationary time series. The generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) is often utilised in this context because it is seen as a convenient single expression for extreme event analysis. However, the GEV has a drawback because the location of the distribution bound relative to the data is a discontinuous function of the GEV shape parameter. That is, for annual maxima approximated by the Gumbel distribution, the data is also consistent with a GEV distribution with an upper bound (no lower bound) or a GEV distribution with a lower bound (no upper bound). A more consistent single extreme value expression for design purposes is proposed as the Weibull distribution of smallest extremes, as applied to transformed annual maxima. The Weibull distribution limit holds here for sufficiently large sample sizes, irrespective of the extreme value domain of attraction applicable to the untransformed maxima. The Gumbel, Type 2, and Type 3 extreme value distributions thus become redundant, together with the GEV, because in reality there is only a single asymptotic extreme value distribution required for design purposes - the Weibull distribution of minima as applied to transformed maxima. An illustrative synthetic example is given showing transformed maxima from the normal distribution approaching the Weibull limit much faster than the untransformed sample maxima approach the normal distribution Gumbel limit. Some New Zealand examples are given with the Weibull distribution being applied to reciprocal transformations of annual flood maxima, where the untransformed maxima follow apparently different extreme value distributions.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.643-653
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• 2014

In this paper, we propose some estimators for the extreme value distribution based on the interval method and mid-point approximation method from the progressive Type-I interval censored sample. Because log-likelihood function is a non-linear function, we use a Taylor series expansion to derive approximate likelihood equations. We compare the proposed estimators in terms of the mean squared error by using the Monte Carlo simulation.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.261-282
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• 2017

The probabilistic information of directional extreme wind speeds is important for precisely estimating the design wind loads on structures. A new joint probability distribution model of directional extreme wind speeds is established based on observed wind-speed data using multivariate extreme value theory with the t-Copula function in the present study. At first, the theoretical deficiencies of the Gaussian-Copula and Gumbel-Copula models proposed by previous researchers for the joint probability distribution of directional extreme wind speeds are analysed. Then, the t-Copula model is adopted to solve this deficiency. Next, these three types of Copula models are discussed and evaluated with Spearman's rho, the parametric bootstrap test and the selection criteria based on the empirical Copula. Finally, the extreme wind speeds for a given return period are predicted by the t-Copula model with observed wind-speed records from several areas and the influence of dependence among directional extreme wind speeds on the predicted results is discussed.

• 대한수학회보
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• 제45권1호
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• pp.75-93
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• 2008

The rate of convergence of the distribution of order statistics to the corresponding extreme-value distribution may be characterized by the uniform and total variation metrics. de Haan and Resnick [4] derived the convergence rate when the second order generalized regularly varying function has second order derivatives. In this paper, based on the properties of the generalized regular variation and the second order generalized variation and characterized by uniform and total variation metrics, the convergence rates of the distribution of the largest order statistic are obtained under weaker conditions.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.222-228
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• 2019

An extreme value analysis (EVA) is essential to obtain a design value for highly nonlinear variables such as long-term environmental data for wind and waves, and slamming or sloshing impact pressures. According to the extreme value theory (EVT), the extreme value distribution is derived by multiplying the initial cumulative distribution functions for independent and identically distributed (IID) random variables. However, in the position mooring of DNVGL, the sampled global maxima of the mooring line tension are assumed to be IID stochastic variables without checking their independence. The ITTC Recommended Procedures and Guidelines for Sloshing Model Tests never deal with the independence of the sampling data. Hence, a design value estimated without the IID check would be under- or over-estimated because of considering observations far away from a Weibull or generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) as outliers. In this study, the IID sampling data are first checked in an EVA. With no IID random variables, an automatic resampling scheme is recommended using the block maxima approach for a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach for a GPD. A partial autocorrelation function (PACF) is used to check the IID variables. In this study, only one 5 h sample of sloshing test results was used for a feasibility study of the resampling IID variables approach. Based on this study, the resampling IID variables may reduce the number of outliers, and the statistically more appropriate design value could be achieved with independent samples.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제31권4호
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• pp.48-54
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• 2016

The prediction of various emissions from coal combustion is an important subject of researchers and engineers because of environmental consideration. Therefore, the development of the models for predicting pollutants very fast has received much attention from international research community, especially in the field of safety assessment. In this work, response surface method was introduced as a design of experiment, and the database for RSM was set with the numerical simulation of a drop tube furnace (DTF) to predict the spatial distribution of pollutant concentrations as well as final ones. The distribution of carbon dioxide in DTF was assumed to have Boltzman function, and the resulted function with parameters of a high $R^2$ value facilitates predicting an accurate distribution of $CO_2$. However, CO distribution had a difference near peak concentration when Gaussian function was introduced to simulate the CO distribution. It might be mainly due to the anti-symmetry of the CO concentration in DTF, and hence Extreme function was used to permit the asymmetry. The application of Extreme function enhanced the regression accuracy of parameters and the prediction was in a fairly good agreement with the new experiments. These results promise the wide use of statistical models for the quantitative safety assessment.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제15권12호
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• pp.4567-4583
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• 2021

This study proposes an analytical approximation algorithm based on extreme value theory (EVT) for the inverse of the power of the incomplete Gamma function. First, the Gumbel function is used to approximate the power of the incomplete Gamma function, and the corresponding inverse problem is transformed into the inversion of an exponential function. Then, using the tail equivalence theorem, the normalized coefficient of the general Weibull distribution function is employed to replace the normalized coefficient of the random variable following a Gamma distribution, and the approximate closed form solution is obtained. The effects of equation parameters on the algorithm performance are evaluated through simulation analysis under various conditions, and the performance of this algorithm is compared to those of the Newton iterative algorithm and other existing approximate analytical algorithms. The proposed algorithm exhibits good approximation performance under appropriate parameter settings. Finally, the performance of this method is evaluated by calculating the thresholds of space-time block coding and space-frequency block coding pattern recognition in multiple-input and multiple-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing. The analytical approximation method can be applied to other related situations involving the maximum statistics of independent and identically distributed random variables following Gamma distributions.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.141-153
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• 2020

Probabilistic information regarding directional extreme wind speeds is important for the precise estimation of the design wind loads on structures. A joint probability distribution model of directional extreme typhoon wind speeds is established using Monte Carlo simulation and empirical copula function to fully consider the correlations of extreme typhoon wind speeds among the different directions. With this model, a procedure for estimating directional extreme wind speeds for given return periods, which ensures that the overall risk is distributed uniformly by direction, is established. Taking 5 typhoon-prone cities in China as examples, the directional extreme typhoon wind speeds for given return periods estimated by the present method are compared with those estimated by the method proposed by Cook and Miller (1999). Two types of directional factors are obtained based on Cook and Miller (1999) and the UK standard's drafting committee (Standard B, 1997), and the directional risks for the given overall risks are discussed. The influences of the extreme wind speed correlations in the different directions and the simulated typhoon wind speed sample sizes on the estimated extreme wind speeds for a given return period are also discussed.

• 문화기술의 융합
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.531-536
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• 2022

본 논문은 꼬리가 두꺼운 분포의 꼬리부분에 대한 분포를 추정할 경우 모수적 방법과 비모수적 방법의 성능에 대해 비교하였다. 모수적 방법으로는 일반화 극단값 분포와 일반화 파레토 분포를 이용하였고, 비모수적 방법은 커널형 확률밀도함수 추정방법을 적용하였다. 두 접근법의 비교를 위해 2014년부터 2018년까지 서울시 관측소별 일일 미세먼지 공공데이터를 이용하여 블록 최댓값 모형과 분계점 초과치 모형을 적용하여 함수 추정한 결과를 함께 보이고 2년, 5년, 10년의 재현수준을 통해 고농도의 미세먼지가 일어날 지역을 예측하였다.