• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.252-260
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• 2022

연구목적: 기후변화 등으로 인해 자연재해의 빈도 및 강도가 증가하고 있어, 원자력발전소에 영향을 주는 외부사건이 발생할 수 있다. 원자력발전소는 자연재해, 인공재해 등 외부사건으로부터 안전해야 한다. 따라서 원자력발전소에 발생할 수 있는 외부사건을 식별하여야 하며, 원자력발전소에 큰 영향을 줄 수 있는 외부사건을 선별하여야 한다. 본 연구에서는 외부사건을 식별 및 선별하는 방법의 연구동향을 소개한다. 연구방법: 원자력발전소의 확률론적 안전성 평가를 위한 외부사건의 식별 및 선별에 관한 문헌조사를 실시하였다. 또한 국내외 외부사건의 식별 및 선별에 관한 규정을 조사하였다. 연구결과: 원자력발전소의 외부사건 영향분석의 비용을 최소화하고자 외부사건을 식별 및 선별하는 연구가 이루어지고 있다. 각 연구는 관점에 따라 차이를 보이지만 공통적으로 식별과정에서는 원자력발전소 부지에서 발생할 수 있는 모든 사건을 식별하고자 하며, 선별과정에서는 정성적 기준과 정량적 기준을 바탕으로 외부사건을 선별한다. 결론:기후변화 등으로 인하여 자연재해의 강도가 변화하고 있어, 원자력발전소에 영향을 주는 외부사건을 식별 및 선별하는 과정이 중요해지고 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 외부사건을 식별과 선별하는 방법에 대해 조사하여 정리하였다. 국내의 경우 원자력발전소의 확률론적 안전성 평가를 위한 외부사건의 식별과 선별에 관한 연구가 미미한 실정이다. 또한 외부사건 정량적 선별과정에서 수행하는 '경계분석'과 '명백히 보수적인 분석' 방법에 관한 연구가 필요할 것으로 보인다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권2호
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• pp.380-386
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• 2017

Fennovoima's nuclear power plant, Hanhikivi 1, $Pyh{\ddot{a}}joki$, Finland, is currently in design phase, and its construction is scheduled to begin in 2018 and electricity production in 2024. The objective of this paper is to produce a preliminary list of safety-significant external event combinations including preliminary probability estimates, to be used in the probabilistic risk assessment of Hanhikivi 1 plant. Starting from the list of relevant single events, the relevant event combinations are identified based on seasonal variation, preconditions related to different events, and dependencies (fundamental and cascade type) between events. Using this method yields 30 relevant event combinations of two events for the Hanhikivi site. The preliminary probability of each combination is evaluated, and event combinations with extremely low probability are excluded from further analysis. Event combinations of three or more events are identified by adding possible events to the remaining combinations of two events. Finally, 10 relevant combinations of two events and three relevant combinations of three events remain. The results shall be considered preliminary and will be updated after evaluating more detailed effects of different events on plant safety.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.265-274
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• 2003

Time series data are influenced by the external events such as holiday, strike, oil shock, and political change, so the external events cause a sudden change to the time series data. We regard the observation as outlier that occurred as a result of external events. In general, it is called intervention if we know the period and the reason of external events, and it makes an analyst difficult to establish a time series model. Therefore, it is important that we analyze the styles and effects of intervention. In this paper, we considered the linear time series model with invention and compared with nonlinear time series models such as ARCH, GARCH model and also we compared with the combination prediction method that Tong(1990) introduced. In the practical case study, we compared prediction power with RMSE among linear, nonlinear time series model with intervention and combination prediction method.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권2호
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• pp.376-385
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• 2021

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has improved its elemental technologies used for assessing external events since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident in 2011. HRA needs to be improved for analyzing tasks performed under extreme conditions (e.g., different actors responding to external events or performing operations using portable mitigation equipment). To make these improvements, it is essential to understand plant-specific and scenario-specific conditions that affect human performance. The Nuclear Risk Research Center (NRRC) of the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) has developed an HRA guide that compiles qualitative analysis methods for collecting plant-specific and scenario-specific conditions that affect human performance into "narratives," reflecting the latest research trends, and models for analysis of tasks under extreme conditions.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.88-96
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• 2013

Purpose: This study identifies accident sequences from the past accidents in order to help the risk analysis application to the external radiotherapy. Materials and Methods: This study reviews 59 accidental cases in two retrospective safety analyses that have collected the incidents in the external radiotherapy extensively. Two accident analysis reports that accumulated past incidents are investigated to identify accident sequences including initiating events, failure of safety measures, and consequences. This study classifies the accidents by the treatments stages and sources of errors for initiating events, types of failures in the safety measures, and types of undesirable consequences and the number of affected patients. Then, the accident sequences are grouped into several categories on the basis of similarity of progression. As a result, these cases can be categorized into 14 groups of accident sequence. Results: The result indicates that risk analysis needs to pay attention to not only the planning stage, but also the calibration stage that is committed prior to the main treatment process. It also shows that human error is the largest contributor to initiating events as well as to the failure of safety measures. This study also illustrates an event tree analysis for an accident sequence initiated in the calibration. Conclusion: This study is expected to provide sights into the accident sequences for the prospective risk analysis through the review of experiences.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제44권5호
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• pp.459-470
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• 2012

From the PSA point of view, the Fukushima accident of Japan in 2011 reveals some issues to be re-considered and/or improved in the PSA such as the limited scope of the PSA, site risk, etc. KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has performed researches on the development of an integrated risk assessment framework related to some issues arisen after the Fukushima accident. This framework can cover the internal PSA model and external PSA models (fire, flooding, and seismic PSA models) in the full power and the low power-shutdown modes. This framework also integrates level 1, 2 and 3 PSA to quantify the risk of nuclear facilities more efficiently and consistently. We expect that this framework will be helpful to resolve the issue regarding the limited scope of PSA and to reduce some inconsistencies that might exist between (1) the internal and external PSA, and (2) full power mode PSA and low power-shutdown PSA models. In addition, KAERI is starting researches related to the extreme external events, the risk assessment of spent fuel pool, and the site risk. These emerging issues will be incorporated into the integrated risk assessment framework. In this paper the integrated risk assessment framework and the research activities on the emerging issues are outlined.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.389-404
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• 2019

In coastal regions, it is common to witness significant damages on low-rise buildings caused by hurricanes and other extreme wind events. These damages start at high pressure zones or weak building components, and then cascade to other building parts. The state-of-the-art in experimental and numerical aerodynamic load evaluation is to assume buildings with intact envelopes where wind acts only on the external walls and correct for internal pressure through separate aerodynamic studies. This approach fails to explain the effect of openings on (i) the external pressure, (ii) internal partition walls; and (iii) the load sharing between internal and external walls. During extreme events, non-structural components (e.g., windows, doors or rooftiles) could fail allowing the wind flow to enter the building, which can subject the internal walls to lateral loads that potentially can exceed their load capacities. Internal walls are typically designed for lower capacities compared to external walls. In the present work, an anticipated damage development scenario is modelled for a four-story building with a stepped gable roof. LES is used to examine the change in the internal and external wind flows for different level of assumed damages (starting from an intact building up to a case with failure in most windows and doors are observed). This study demonstrates that damages in non-structural components can increase the wind risk on the structural elements due to changes in the loading patterns. It also highlights the load sharing mechanisms in low rise buildings.

• 아동학회지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.35-47
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• 1998

Negative life events, self-esteem, perceived social support, and maladjustment were studied longitudinally among late elementary children. Subjects were 241 boys and girls for depression and 258 for antisocial behavior. The instruments were the Adolescent Perceived Events Scale, the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, the Social Support Scale for Children, the Revised Korean Version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies' Depression Scale, and the Antisocial Behavior Scale. The results showed that the way variables were reciprocally related to one another in patterns over a period of one year differed by internal and external adjustment. For depression, depression at Time 1 had effects on self-esteem, social support, and depression at Time 2. For antisocial behavior, negative life events at Time 1 influenced negative life events, self-esteem, social support, and antisocial behavior at Time 2. The findings were discussed in relation to the effects of negative life events, self-esteem, and perceived social support on maladjustment.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.283-303
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• 2006

This is the research on the correlation between the marketing activities conducted by the companies participating in the overseas exhibitions in the exhibition and the satisfaction of the visitors. I have been able to obtain the following findings through the positive research on the satisfaction of the visitors to the overseas exhibitions. The research findings show that the external elements of the participating companies such as 'external appearances of booths, interior facilities and the atmosphere', 'designs of exhibits', 'size of the participating companies', and the publicity elements of the participating companies such as 'the degree of application of mass media', 'prior publicity of the participating companies', etc. among the marketing activities conducted by the participating companies in the exhibition affect the interest and repeat business deals of the visitors. The findings also show that the elements to induce the interest of the visitors such as the booth design and display of products where the participating companies may produce their unique image and the prior publicity to the visitors constitute the important elements of marketing. It has also been revealed that the visitors whose purpose of the visits are to purchase the products and to satisfy their interest in 'the events and contents of the events affect the interest and the repeat business deals of the visitors, among the interest and repeat business deals pursuant to the characteristics of the visitors. It has also been found that the visitors who have recognized the representative brands in the exhibitions affect the interest and the repeat business deals and the visitors who have visited the exhibition several times are more satisfied than the visitors who have visited the exhibition for the first time. The comparative evaluation of the degree of importance of the marketing activities of the participating companies before the visitors' visit to the exhibitions and the degree of satisfaction after their visit reveals degrees of satisfaction in the order of 'the booth staff's professional knowledge of the exhibits', 'foreign language proficiency and their techniques of negotiation and demonstration', 'designs of the exhibits (colors and packaging), 'prior publicity of the participating companies. Such being the case, the companies participating in any of the overseas should maximize the result of their participation in the exhibition by training their staff in the products and foreign languages and through the prior publicity. It has also been found out that "the atmosphere of the booth in the exhibition such as 'launching of new products', 'external appearances of the booth, layout of the interior facilities and the atmosphere and events of the participating companies affect the interest and repeat business deals of the visitors, among the factors for the satisfaction of the visitors. Therefore, it has been proven that the external factors such as the external appearances of the booth, display of the products, launching of new products and events producing the atmosphere of the booth of the participating companies among the marketing activities conducted by the participating companies, and the extent of the training of the booth staff and prior publicity are the major factors affecting the interest and repeat business deals of the visitors.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제43권6호
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• pp.699-708
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• 2023

원자력 발전소는 안전하게 운영될 수 있도록 설계단계에서 자연재해를 포함한 예상 가능한 모든 외부사건들이 고려되고 있다. 그러나 최근에 기후변화로 인해 설계를 초과하는 자연재해의 발생 가능성이 증가하면서 설계 당시에 예측하지 못했던 극한자연재해와 외부사건에 대해 세심한 검토가 요구되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 국내 원전 부지별 잠재적 극한자연재해를 선별하고자 하였다. 이를 위해서 원전 부지특성과 원전 부지별 외부재해로 인해 발생한 사건을 조사하고 분석하였다. 그리고 기존 문헌과 연구 자료를 조사하여 국내 원전 실정에 맞는 선별절차와 기준을 수립하였다. 본 연구에서 수립된 선별기준에 근거하여 원전 부지별로 정성적 선별을 수행하였고, 선별된 자연재해를 대상으로 정량적 선별과 현장실사를 통해 국내 원전 부지별 잠재적 극한자연재해를 선별하였다. 선별 결과, 폭우에 의한 내부침수 이외에도 강풍에 의한 풍압과 극한 공기압이 모든 부지에서 공통적인 잠재적 극한자연재해로 선별되었다. 그리고 고리부지의 경우 폭풍해일이 1순위의 잠재적 극한자연재해로 선정되었다.