• Title/Summary/Keyword: Experts' opinion

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A Comparative Study On Accident Prediction Model Using Nonlinear Regression And Artificial Neural Network, Structural Equation for Rural 4-Legged Intersection (비선형 회귀분석, 인공신경망, 구조방정식을 이용한 지방부 4지 신호교차로 교통사고 예측모형 성능 비교 연구)

  • Oh, Ju Taek;Yun, Ilsoo;Hwang, Jeong Won;Han, Eum
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.266-279
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    • 2014
  • For the evaluation of roadway safety, diverse methods, including before-after studies, simple comparison using historic traffic accident data, methods based on experts' opinion or literature, have been applied. Especially, many research efforts have developed traffic accident prediction models in order to identify critical elements causing accidents and evaluate the level of safety. A traffic accident prediction model must secure predictability and transferability. By acquiring the predictability, the model can increase the accuracy in predicting the frequency of accidents qualitatively and quantitatively. By guaranteeing the transferability, the model can be used for other locations with acceptable accuracy. To this end, traffic accident prediction models using non-linear regression, artificial neural network, and structural equation were developed in this study. The predictability and transferability of three models were compared using a model development data set collected from 90 signalized intersections and a model validation data set from other 33 signalized intersections based on mean absolute deviation and mean squared prediction error. As a result of the comparison using the model development data set, the artificial neural network showed the highest predictability. However, the non-linear regression model was found out to be most appropriate in the comparison using the model validation data set. Conclusively, the artificial neural network has a strong ability in representing the relationship between the frequency of traffic accidents and traffic and road design elements. However, the predictability of the artificial neural network significantly decreased when the artificial neural network was applied to a new data which was not used in the model developing.

Risk Ranking Determination of Combination of Foodborne Pathogens and Livestock or Livestock Products (식중독 세균과 주요 축산식품 및 가공품 조합에 대한 위해순위 결정)

  • Hong, Soo-Hyeon;Park, Na-Yoon;Jo, Hye-Jin;Ro, Eun-Young;Ko, Young-Mi;Na, Yu-Jin;Park, Keun-Cheol;Choi, Bum-Geun;Min, Kyung-Jin;Lee, Jong-Kyung;Moon, Jin-San;Yoon, Ki-Sun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2015
  • This study was performed to determine risk ranking of the combination of pathogen-livestock or livestock products to identify the most significant public health risks and to prioritize risk management strategies. First, we reviewed foodborne outbreak data related to livestock products and determined main vehicles and pathogens according to the number of outbreak and case. Second, expert's opinion about management priority of pathogen-livestock product pairing was surveyed with 19 livestock experts in the university, research center, and government agency. Lastly, we used the outcome of Risk Ranger (semi-quantitative risk ranking tool) of 14 combinations of pathogen and livestock or livestock products. We have classified the combination of pathogen-livestock products into group I (high risk), II (medium risk), and III (low risk) according to their risk levels and management priority. Group I, which is the highest risk for foodborne outbreak, includes Salmonella spp./egg and egg products, Campylobacter spp./poultry, pathogenic E. coli/meat and processed ground meat. In conclusion, the results of this study will provide the specific guideline of mid- and long-term planning for risk assessment and risk management prioritization of the combination of pathogen and livestock, or livestock product.

Canadian Public and Stakeholder Engagement Approach to a Spent Nuclear Fuel Management (사용후핵연료 관리를 위한 캐나다 공론화 방안)

  • Hwang, Yong-Soo;Kim, Youn-Ok;Whang, Joo-Ho
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.179-187
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    • 2008
  • After Canada has struggled with a radioactive waste problem over for 20 years, the Canadian government finally found out that its approach by far has been lack of social acceptance, and needed a program such as public and stakeholder engagement (PSE) which involves the public in decision-making process. Therefore, the government made a special law, called Nuclear Fuel Waste Act (NFWA), to search for an appropriate nuclear waste management approach. NFWA laid out three possible approaches which were already prepared in advance by a nuclear expert group, and required Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO) to be established to report a recommendation as to which of the proposed approaches should be adopted. However, NFWA allowed NWMO to consider additional management approach if the other three were not acceptable enough. Thus, NWMO studied and created a fourth management approach after it had undertaken an comparison of the benefits, risks and costs of each management approach: Adaptive Phased Management. This approach was intended to enable the implementers to accept any technological advancement or changes even in the middle of the implementation of the plan. The Canadian PSE case well shows that technological R&D are deeply connected with social acceptance. Even though the developments and technological advancement are carried out by the scientists and experts, but it is important to collect the public opinion by involving them to the decision-making process in order to achieve objective validity on the R&D programs. Moreover, in an effort to ensure the principles such as fairness, public health and safety, security, and adoptability, NWMO tried to make those abstract ideas more specific and help the public understand the meaning of each concept more in detail. Also, they utilized a variety of communication methods from face-to-face meeting to e-dialogue to encourage people to participate in the program as much as possible. Given the fact that Korea has been also having a hard time in dealing with spent nuclear fuel management, all of these efforts that Canada has made with a PSE program would give good lessons and implications to the Korean case. In conclusion, as a deliberative participation program, PSE could be a possible breakthrough approach for the Korean spent nuclear fuel management.

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Validity of Nursing Diagnoses Related to Difficulty in Respiratory Function (호흡기능장애와 관련된 간호진단의 타당도 조사)

  • 김조자;이원희;유지수;허혜경;김창희;홍성경
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.569-584
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    • 1993
  • This study was done to verify validity of nursing diagnoses related to difficulty in respiratory function. First, content validity was examined by an expert group considering the etiology and the signs / symptoms of three nursing diagnoses - ineffective airway clearance, ineffective breathing pattern, impaired gas exchange. Second, clinical validity was examined by comparing the frequencies of the etiologies and signs / symptoms of the three nursing diagnoses in clinical case studies with the results of the content validity. This study was a descriptive study. The sample consisted of 23 experts (professors, head nurses and clinical instructors) who had had a variety of experiences using nursing diagnoses in clinical practice, and 102 case reports done by senior student nurses of the college of nursing of Y-university. These reports were part of their clinical practice in the ICU. The instrument used for this study was a checklist for etiologies and signs and symptoms based on the literature, Doenges and Moorhouse (1988), Kim, McFarland, McLane (1991), Lee Won Hee et al. (1987), Kim Cho Ja et at. (1988). The data was collected over four month period from May 1992 to Aug. 1992. Data were analyzed using frequencies done with the SPSS / PC+ package. The results of this study are summarized as follows : 1. General Characteristics of the Expert Group A bachelor degree was held by 43.5% and a master or doctoral degree by 56.5% of the expert group. The average age of the expert group was 35.3 years. Their average clinical experience was 9.3 years and their average experience in clinical practice was 5.9 years. The general characteristics of the patients showed that there were more women than men, that the age range was from 1 to over 80. Most of their medical diagnoses were diagnoses related to the respiratory. system, circulation or neurologic system, and 50% or more of them had a ventilator with intubation or a tracheostomy. The number of cases for each nursing diagnoses was : · Ineffective airway clearance, 92 cases. · Ineffective breathing pattern, 18 cases. · Impaired gas exchange, 22 cases. 2. The opinion of the expert group as to the classification of the etiology, and signs and symptoms of the three nursing diagnoses was as follows : · In 31.8% of the cases the classification of etiology was clear. · In 22.7%, the classification of signs and symptoms was clear. · In 17.4%, the classification of nursing interventions was clear. 3. In the expert group 80% or mere agreed to ‘dysp-nea’as a common sign and symptom of the three nursing diagnoses. The distinguishing signs and symptoms of (Ineffective airway clearance) were ‘sputum’, ‘cough’, ‘abnormal respiratory sounds : rales’. The distinguishing sings and symptoms of (Ineffective breathing pattern) were ‘tachypnea’, ‘use of accessory muscle of respiration’, ‘orthopnea’ and for (Impaired gas exchange) it was ‘abnormal arterial blood gas’, 4. The distribution of etiology, and signs and symptoms of the three nursing diagnoses was as follows : · There was a high frequency of ‘increased secretion from the bronchus and trachea’ in both the expert group and the case reports as the etiology of ineffective airway clearance. · For the etiologies for ineffective breathing pat-tern, ‘rain’, ‘anxiety’, ‘fear’, ‘obstructions of the tract, ca and bronchus’ had a high ratio in the ex-pert group and ‘decreased expansion of lung’ in the case reports. · For the etiologies for impaired gas exchanges, ‘altered oxygen -carrying capacity of the blood’ and ‘excess accumulation of interstitial fluid in lung’ had a high ratio in the expert group and ‘altered oxygen supply’ in the case reports. · For signs and symptoms for ineffective airway clearance, ‘dyspnea’, ‘altered amount and character of sputum’ were included by 100% of the expert group. ‘Abnormal respiratory. sound(rate, rhonchi)’ were included by a high ratio of the expert group. · For the signs and symptoms for ineffective breathing pattern. ‘dyspnea’, ‘shortness of breath’ were included by 100% of the expert group. In the case reports, ‘dyspnea’ and ‘tachypnea’ were reported as signs and symptoms. · For the sign and symptoms for impaired gas exchange, ‘hypoxia’ and ‘cyanosis’ had a high ratio in the expert group. In the case report, ‘hypercapnia’, ‘hypoxia’ and ‘inability to remove secretions’ were reported as signs and symptoms. In summary, the similarity of the etiologies and signs and symptoms of the three nursing diagnoses related to difficulty in respiratory function makes it difficult to distinguish among them But the clinical validity of three nursing diagnoses was established through this study, and at last one sign and symp-tom was defined for each diagnosis.

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An Investigation into the Secondary Science Teachers' Perception on Scientific Models and Modeling (과학적 모델과 모델링에 대한 중등 과학 교사의 인식 탐색)

  • Cho, Eunjin;Kim, Chan-jong;Choe, Seung-urn
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.859-877
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to probe secondary science teachers' perception on scientific models and modeling. A total of 50 experienced science teachers were surveyed with 10 open-ended questions about several aspects of models and modeling: definition, examples, purpose, multiplicity, changeability, design/construction, evaluation and beliefs in the use of models and modeling as a teaching tool. The analysis of the data shows the following results: 1) understanding of models and modeling held by a majority of experienced secondary science teachers was far from that of experts as they concentrated on a model's superficial, representative, and visual functions, 2) when it comes to their view toward the use of a model, a model does not remain in the stage of 'doing science' but in the stage of being a subsidiary teaching tool for the teacher's explaining and the students' understanding of scientific concepts, 3) the subjects they majored in made meaningful differences in their contextual understanding of models and modeling, 4) though most of the teachers acknowledged the importance of teaching about models and modeling, even a lot of them showed a negative position toward the opinion that they are willing to apply modeling to their classes. Implications of the results were discussed in terms of intervention in order to enhance secondary science teachers' understanding and pedagogical content knowledge of models and modeling.

The current state and prospects of travel business development under the COVID-19 pandemic

  • Tkachenko, Tetiana;Pryhara, Olha;Zatsepina, Nataly;Bryk, Stepan;Holubets, Iryna;Havryliuk, Alla
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.21 no.12spc
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    • pp.664-674
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    • 2021
  • The relevance of this scientific research is determined by the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the current trends and dynamics of world tourism development. This article aims to identify patterns of development of the modern tourist market, analysis of problems and prospects of development in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and methods. General scientific methods and methods of research are used in the work: analysis, synthesis, comparison, analysis of statistical data. The analysis of the viewpoints of foreign and domestic authors on the research of the international tourist market allowed us to substantiate the actual directions of tourism development due to the influence of negative factors connected with the spread of a new coronavirus infection COVID-19. Economic-statistical, abstract-logical, and economic-mathematical methods of research were used during the process of study and data processing. Results. The analysis of the current state of the tourist market by world regions was carried out. It was found that tourism is one of the most affected sectors from COVID-19, as, by the end of 2020, the total number of tourist arrivals in the world decreased by 74% compared to the same period in 2019. The consequence of this decline was a loss of total global tourism revenues by the end of 2020, which equaled $1.3 trillion. 27% of all destinations are completely closed to international tourism. At the end of 2020, the economy of international tourism has shrunk by about 80%. In 2020 the world traveled 98 million fewer people (-83%) relative to the same period last year. Tourism was hit hardest by the pandemic in the Asia-Pacific region, where travel restrictions are as strict as possible. International arrivals in this region fell by 84% (300 million). The Middle East and Africa recorded declines of 75 and 70 percent. Despite a small and short-lived recovery in the summer of 2020, Europe lost 71% of the tourist flow, with the European continent recording the largest drop in absolute terms compared with 2019, 500 million. In North and South America, foreign arrivals declined. It is revealed that a significant decrease in tourist flows leads to a massive loss of jobs, a sharp decline in foreign exchange earnings and taxes, which limits the ability of states to support the tourism industry. Three possible scenarios of exit of the tourist industry from the crisis, reflecting the most probable changes of monthly tourist flows, are considered. The characteristics of respondents from Ukraine, Germany, and the USA and their attitude to travel depending on gender, age, education level, professional status, and monthly income are presented. About 57% of respondents from Ukraine, Poland, and the United States were planning a tourist trip in 2021. Note that people with higher or secondary education were more willing to plan such a trip. The results of the empirical study confirm that interest in domestic tourism has increased significantly in 2021. The regression model of dependence of the number of domestic tourist trips on the example of Ukraine with time tendency (t) and seasonal variations (Turˆt = 7288,498 - 20,58t - 410,88∑5) it forecast for 2020, which allows stabilizing the process of tourist trips after the pandemic to use this model to forecast for any country. Discussion. We should emphasize the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic and the fact that many experts and scientists believe in the long-term recovery of the tourism industry. In our opinion, the governments of the countries need to refocus on domestic tourism and deal with infrastructure development, search for new niches, formats, formation of new package deals in new - domestic - segment (new products' development (tourist routes, exhibitions, sightseeing programs, special rehabilitation programs after COVID) -19 in sanatoriums, etc.); creation of individual offers for different target audiences). Conclusions. Thus, the identified trends are associated with a decrease in the number of tourist flows, the negative impact of the pandemic on employment and income from tourism activities. International tourism needs two to four years before it returns to the level of 2019.

A Study on the Legal Proposal of Crew's Fatigue Management in the Aviation Regulations (항공법규에서의 승무원 피로관리기준 도입방안에 관한 연구 - ICAO, FAA, EASA 기준을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Koo-Hee;Hwang, Ho-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.29-73
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    • 2012
  • Aviation safety is the State and industry's top priority and more scientific approaches for fatigue management should be needed. There are lately various studies and regulation changes for crew fatigue management with ICAO, FAA and EASA. ICAO issued the provisions of fatigue management for flight crew since 1st edition, 1969, of Annex 6 operation of aircraft as a Standards and Recommended practice(SARPs). Unfortunately, there have been few changes and improvement to fatigue management provisions since the time they were first introduced. However the SARPs have been big changed lately. ICAO published guidance materials for development of prescriptive fatigue regulations through amendment 33A of Annex 6 Part 1 as applicable November 19th 2009. And then ICAO introduced additional amendment for using Fatigue Risk Management System (FRMS) with $35^{th}$ amendment in 2011. According to the Annex 6, the State of the operator shall establish a) regulations for flight time, flight duty period, duty period and rest period limitations and b) FRMS regulations. The Operator shall implement one of following 3 provisions a) flight time, flight duty period, duty period and rest period limitations within the prescriptive fatigue management regulations established by the State of the Operator; or b) a FRMS; or c) a combination of a) and b). U.S. FAA recently published several kinds of Advisory Circular about flightcrew fatigue. U.S. passed "Airline Safety and FAA Extension Act of 2010" into law on August 1st, 2010. This mandates all commercial air carriers to develop a FAA-acceptable Fatigue Risk Management Plan(FRMP) by October 31st, 2010. Also, on May 16, 2012, the FAA published a final rule(correction) entitled 'Flightcrew Member Duty and Rest Requirements; correction to amend its existing prescriptive regulations. The new requirements are required to implement same regulations for domestic, flag and supplemental operations from January 4, 2014. EASA introduced a Notice of Proposed Amendment (NPA) 2010-14 entitled "Draft opinion of the European Aviation Safety Agency for a Commission Regulation establishing the implementing rules on Flight and Duty Time Limitations and Rest Requirements for Commercial Air Transport with aeroplanes" on December 10, 2010. The purpose of this NPA is to develop and implement fatigue management for commercial air transport operations. Comparing with Korean and foreign regulations regarding fatigue management, the provisions of ICAO, FAA, EASA are more considering various fatigue factors and conditions. Korea regulations should be needed for some development of insufficiency points. In this thesis, I present the results of the comparative study between domestic and foreign regulations in respect of fatigue management crew member. Also, I suggest legal proposals for amendment of Korea Aviation act and Enforcement Regulations concerning fatigue management for crew members. I hope that this paper is helpful to change korea fatigue regulations, to enhance aviation safety, and to reduce the number of accidents relating to fatigue. Fatigue should be managed at all level such as regulators, experts, operators and pilots. Authority should change surveillance mind-set from regulatory auditor to expert adviser. Operators should identify various fatigue factors and consider to crew scheduling them. Crews should strongly manage both individual and duty-oriented fatigue issues.

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A Study on the Entrepreneurial Intention of College Students in the Entertainment Industry with Idea Education and Support for Startup Infrastructure (아이디어 교육 및 창업 인프라 지원이 엔터테인먼트 산업 분야에 대한 대학생 창업의도 연구)

  • Lee, Ji-Hun
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.15 no.8
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    • pp.19-31
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    • 2021
  • This study tried to identify the characteristics of college students' entrepreneurial intentions in the entertainment industry, focusing on existing literature studies. Based on this, it was intended to suggest realistic educational alternatives for university student start-ups and implications for start-up management to university start-up officials and those in charge of national start-up support policy. Therefore, the implications of this study are as follows. First, technology(item) for idea creation education, which is an essential element in the entertainment industry, how to connect ideas and products, technology methods that can increase content value, and user characteristics education within the entertainment industry will need to be continued. In addition, along with the idea education, it is necessary to increase the understanding of start-up business management such as financing, human resource management, marketing, and operation management, and furthermore, confidence education should be provided so that the possibility of success in an entertainment start-up and a sense of adventure in a new job can be developed. Second, the space and equipment necessary for start-up (club room, student start-up room, entertainment-related equipment, etc.) should be provided centering on the opinion survey of students who are interested in starting a business, and various regulations of universities and government for student start-up should be relaxed. will have to In addition, education for the formation of entrepreneurial knowledge inside and outside of the school, special lectures and consultations by experts, and on-the-spot education, etc., should be made to create more practical entrepreneurial knowledge. something to do. Third, for students wishing to start a business in the entertainment industry, it is necessary to inform their families about the field situation of the entertainment industry accurately so that their children can develop a positive perception rather than a negative perception when choosing a business field. In addition, by promoting various successful cases of college students to their families after starting a business, families should be encouraged so that their children can develop a challenging spirit about starting a business. Fourth, it should be possible to form continuous clubs or gatherings with friends who wish to start a business in the entertainment industry, and furthermore, an opportunity to listen to the opinions of friends who actually started a business through these meetings should be provided. In addition, the meeting and the formation of friends should create a place for discussion about writing a business plan, how to succeed in starting a business, and management of startups, and psychological stimulation activities should be conducted so that each other's will to start a business arises. Fifth, various knowledge related to start-up (methods for securing funds, management of start-up organizations, grasping information about the market in which they want to start a business, etc.) should be cultivated, and how to write a business plan for the various entertainment industry fields they want to start up. You will also need to train them to be practical. Also, based on this knowledge formation, students themselves should be able to respond to risks and changes that may occur in entrepreneurship. Lastly, it is necessary to increase the understanding of business start-up management, and various psychological stimulation activities are needed to make the confidence and fear of starting a business disappear.