• 유통과학연구
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• 제13권11호
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• pp.39-46
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• 2015

Purpose - In Korea, there has been a recent trend that shows housing prices have risen rapidly following the International Monetary Fund crisis. The rapid rise in housing prices is spreading recognition of this as a factor in housing price volatility. In addition, this raises the expectations of housing prices in the future. These expectations are based on the assumption that a relationship exists between the current housing prices and expected housing prices in the real estate industry. By performing an empirical analysis on the validity of the claim that an increase in current housing prices can be correlated with expected housing prices, this study examines whether a long-term equilibrium relationship exists between expected housing prices and existing housing prices. If such a relationship exists, the recovery of equilibrium from disequilibrium is analyzed to derive related implications. Research design, data, and methodology - The relationship between current housing prices and expected housing prices was analyzed empirically using the Vector Error Correction Model. This model was applied to the co-integration test, the long-term equilibrium equation among variables, and the causality test. The housing prices used in the analysis were based on the National Housing Price Trend Survey released by Kookmin Bank. Additionally, the Index of Industrial Product and the Consumer Price Index were also used and were obtained from the Bank of Korea ECOS. The monthly data analyzed were from January 1987 to May 2015. Results - First, a long-term equilibrium relationship was established as one co-integration between current housing price distribution and expected housing prices. Second, the sign of the long-term equilibrium relationship variable was consistent with the theoretical sign, with the elasticity of housing price distribution to expected housing price, the industrial production, and the consumer price volatility revealed as 1.600, 0.104,and 0.092, respectively. This implies that the long-term effect of expected housing price volatility on housing price distribution is more significant than that of the industrial production and consumer price volatility. Third, the sign of the coefficient of the error correction term coincided with the theoretical sign. The absolute value of the coefficient of the correction term in the industrial production equation was 0.006, significantly larger than the coefficients for the expected housing price and the consumer price equation. In case of divergence from the long-term equilibrium relationship, the state of equilibrium will be restored through changes in the interest rate. Fourth, housing-price volatility was found to be causal to expected housing price, and was shown to be bi-directionally causal to industrial production. Conclusions - Based on the finding of this study, it is required to relieve the association between current housing price distribution and expected housing price by using property taxes and the loan-to-value policy to stabilize the housing market. Further, the relationship between housing price distribution and expected housing price can be examined and tested using a sophisticated methodology and policy variables.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권11호
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• pp.13-22
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• 2020

This research explores the appropriate rubber pricing model and the consistent empirical evidence. This model has been derived from the utility function and firm profit-maximization model of commodity goods. The finding shows that the period t - 1 affects expected commodity price and expected profit of commodity production. In fact, a change in the world price of rubber in the past period led to a change in the expected price of rubber in the short run which influenced the expected rubber profit. As a result, the past-period free on board price has an entirety effect on expected farm price of rubber given an exchange rate. In addition, the rubber pricing model indicates that the profit of local farmer on rubber plant depends solely on the world price of rubber in the short run in case of Thailand. In an empirical study, it was found that a change in the price of ribbed smoke sheet 3 in Singapore Commodity Exchange significantly and positively determined the fluctuation of rubber price at the farm gate in Thailand which was consistent with the behavior of the Thai farmers. Both prices are also cointegrated in the long run. That is, the result states that the VECM is an appropriated pricing model for forecasting the farm price in Thailand.

• 한국의류학회지
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• 제40권1호
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• pp.148-157
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• 2016

In this study, the notion of payment intention price was introduced and examined in relation with self-image congruence, clothing preference and two types of reference price: expected price and fair price. One hundred samples of female collegiate students participated in the group survey and responded to the instrument including variables of clothing image evaluation, clothing preference, reference price, payment intention price toward a one-piece dress as the stimulus, and ideal self-image perception. Descriptive statistics, correlations, and regressions were applied on data analysis. The results were as follow. Payment intention price was determined by clothing preference and fair price, and the explaining power of fair price was greater than clothing preference. One confirmatory path was observed that self-image congruence effects clothing preference, and then clothing preference effects payment intention price. The other confirmatory path was from expected price to fair price and fair price to payment intention price.

• 한국의류학회지
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• 제37권5호
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• pp.645-654
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• 2013

This study investigated the difference of reference price, preference and quality perception of high functional underwear according to innovation cues. High functional underwear was selected as a research stimulus due to its technological innovative characteristics. A total of 93 male university students participated as subjects and data were collected by simple random experimental design operationalized with three types of innovation stimulus cues. Two types of internal reference price perception-expected price and fair price, preference, and 9 items of product quality perception-8 functional properties and overall quality of stimulus were measured with a questionnaire. The result supported the difference of reference price and quality perception by product innovation cue. The higher cue level group perceived two types of reference price and the overall quality higher than the lower cue level group. The difference of the expected price and fair price, the influence of functional properties on overall quality, and relations of the variables were discussed in depth.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.9-14
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• 1984

The competitive bidding model with the reserve price has been studied by Riley and Samuelson. We extend their studies to the competitive model with the reserve price and the entry fee. First we present the bidder's optimal strategy, the winner's expected profit, the auctioner's expected revenue in the first-price sealed bidding model, and next those in the second-price sealed bidding model.

• 한국식생활문화학회지
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• 제17권5호
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• pp.578-583
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• 2002

The purposes of this study were to a) find out the operational characteristics of the contract-managed highschool foodservice in Seoul, b) investigate the expected level of meal-price and facilities investment cost perceived by contract-managed highschool foodservice managers c) compare the present level and expected level of meal-price and facilities investment cost. From October 12 to November 13 in 2001, the questionnaires were mailed to 249 high schools which was managed by contract foodservice company with respondent rate 40.2%. Data were analyzed using SPSS Win(10.0) for descriptive analysis and one group paired t-test. The results of this study were as follows ; 1. The student enrollment of highschools run by contract-managed foodservice was 1,243 with 72.6% participation rate of school lunch program. The average meal-price was 2,138 won. The average annual period of school foodservice operation was 156.78 days per year. The average contracting period was about 3 years. 2. The average cost concerned in the facilities investment amounts 169,578,180 won at the initial investment and 25,204,092 won at the repairs and maintenance cost in the course of operation. 3. The present level of meal-price and facilities investment cost were respectively 2,136won/meal and 171,157,336.72 won. And expected level of meal-price and amount of facilities investment cost were 2,418.75 won and 121,353,215.19 won. Comparing the present level with the expected level of the meal- price and facilities investment cost, expected level of meal-price was significantly higher than the present level of meal-price(p<.001) and expected level of facilities investment cost was significantly lower than present level of facilities investment cost(p<.001).

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.1-17
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• 2008

Market segmentation is a key strategic factor in increasing the expected profits, especially in the practice of revenue management. A manufacturing firm should manage both manufacturing quantities and pricing decisions over its segmented markets to maximize the expected profits, setting different price for each different segment. Also, market segments should be kept separate in order to prevent demand leakages between different market segments. In fact, even though the markets for different products are firmly segmented, it is not easy to keep separate segmentation because many products might be substitutable by customer buying behavior. That is, customers respond to price changes by purchasing other market's products instead of purchasing the originally requested products, which causes demand substitution effect ; This kind of substitution is referred to as price-driven substitution. Therefore, decisions on optimal prices should take into account the differences in customers' valuation of the different products. We consider a deterministic model for deciding optimal prices in the presence of price-driven substitution, and we compare both symmetrical-and asymmetrical-type demand substitutions between two segmented markets. The objective of this study is to develop analytical and numerical models to examine the impact of price-driven substitution on the optimal price levels and the total expected profits.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.95-102
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• 2013

It is difficult to determine an appropriate discount price for daily perishable products to increase profit from a long-term standpoint. Even if the discount pricing is efficient to increase profit of the day, consumers memorize the sales price and they might hesitate to purchase the product at a regular price the following day. The authors discussed the inventory clearance pricing for a single period in our previous study by constructing a mathematical model to derive an optimal sales price to maximize the expected profit by considering the reference price effect of demand. This paper extends the discussion to handle the discount pricing for multiple periods. A mathematical analysis is first conducted to reveal the properties on an objective function, which is the present value of total expected profits for multiple periods. An algorithm is then proposed to derive an optimal price for asymmetric consumers. Numerical experiments investigate the characteristics of the objective function and optimal pricings.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제13권8호
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• pp.61-71
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• 2015

Purpose - Before the year 2000, the housing prices in Korea were increasing every decade. After 2000, for the first time, Korea experienced a decrease in housing prices, and the repetitive cycle of price fluctuation started. Such a "boom and bust cycle" is a worldwide phenomenon. The current study proposes a mathematical model to explain price fluctuation cycles based on the theory of consumer psychology. Specifically, the model incorporates the effects of buyer expectations of future prices on actual price changes. Based on the model, this study investigates various independent variables affecting the amplitude of price fluctuations in housing markets. Research design, data, and methodology - The study provides theoretical analyses based on a mathematical model. The proposed model uses the following assumptions of the pricing mechanism in housing markets. First, the price of a house at a certain time is affected not only by its current price but also by its expected future price. Second, house investors or buyers cannot predict the exact future price but make a subjective prediction based on observed price changes up to the present. Third, the price is determined by demand changes made in previous time periods. The current study tries to explain the boom-bust cycle in housing markets with a mathematical model and several numerical examples. The model illustrates the effects of consumer price elasticity, consumer sensitivity to price changes, and the sensitivity of prices to demand changes on price fluctuation. Results - The analytical results imply that even without external effects, the boom-bust cycle can occur endogenously due to buyer psychological factors. The model supports the expectation of future price direction as the most important variable causing price fluctuation in housing market. Consumer tendency for making choices based on both the current and expected future price causes repetitive boom-bust cycles in housing markets. Such consumers who respond more sensitively to price changes are shown to make the market more volatile. Consumer price elasticity is shown to be irrelevant to price fluctuations. Conclusions - The mechanism of price fluctuation in the proposed model can be summarized as follows. If a certain external shock causes an initial price increase, consumers perceive it as an ongoing increasing price trend. If the demand increases due to the higher expected price, the price goes up further. However, too high a price cannot be sustained for long, thus the increasing price trend ceases at some point. Once the market loses the momentum of a price increase, the price starts to drop. A price decrease signals a further decrease in a future price, thus the demand decreases further. When the price is perceived as low enough, the direction of the price change is reversed again. Policy makers should be cognizant that the current increase in housing prices due to increased liquidity can pose a serious threat of a sudden price decrease in housing markets.

• 지적과 국토정보
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• 제45권2호
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• pp.203-216
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• 2015

본 연구는 최근 전세가격과 전세가격비율의 이상 급등현상에 비추어 매매가격과 전세가격과의 관계를 살피는 데 있다. 전세가격비율과 매매가격에 대한 기대상승률 간의 관계를 고찰한 연구는 그리 많지 않다. 본 연구는 이 문제와 함께 전세가격비율이 지역별로 주택가격별로 어떠한 차이를 보이는지를 고찰하고 있다. 이 같은 점에서 본 연구는 기존 논문들과 차별성이 있다. 분석결과 매매가격에 대한 기대상승률과 전세가격비율은 정의 상관관계를 가지며, 기대상승률이 0일 경우에도 전세가격이 매매가격을 초과하는 현상은 나타나지 않았다. 매매가격이 높은 지역일수록 전세가격비율은 낮아지며, 매매가격이 낮은 지역일수록 전세가격비율은 높아지는 것으로 나타났다.