• 제목/요약/키워드: Expected Returns

검색결과 130건 처리시간 0.021초

거시경제변수의 호텔·레저 주가지수에 대한 정보이전효과에 관한 연구 (Information Spillover Effects from Macroeconomic Variables to Hotel·Leisure Stock Index)

  • 김수경;유서영;변영태
    • 한국조리학회지
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.212-223
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구의 목적은 거시경제변수의 수익률 및 변동성이 호텔 레저 주가지수 수익률 및 변동성에 대해 정보이전효과가 존재하는 지에 대해 알아보는 것이다. 실증분석을 위해 2000년 1월 4일부터 2015년 12월 31일까지 자료가 사용되었다. 연구의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 시간가변 AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) 모형을 이용하여 분석한 결과, 거시경제변수으로부터 호텔 레저 주가지수로 수익률 및 변동성의 이전효과는 통계적으로 존재하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 환율(KOSPI)과 호텔 레저 주가지수의 수익률 간에는 음(양)의 관계를 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 원유(금리)와 호텔 레저 주가지수의 변동성 간에는 양(음)의 관계를 가지는 것으로 관측되었다.

배수개선사업(排水改善事業)의 경제적효과분석(經濟的效果分析) (A Study on Economic Impacts of Drainage Projects)

  • 김재홍;임재환
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.371-381
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    • 1983
  • This study is aimed at identifying the economic effects of drainage improvement projects. The total area of poor drainage is equivalent to 170,000ha, 13% of the total area of paddy field in Korea. The development of poor drained paddy is an urgent problem considering the low rate of self-sufficiency of food grain and the limitation of farmer's income increase. Rapid development of Korean economy has brought labor shoriage in rural farming sector. Accordingly farm mechanization is an important agricultural policy to hike labor productivity and to save production costs of rice farming. The expected economic benefits of the drainage improvement project are derived from increasing land productivity, expanding double cropped area and farming the farm mechanization base in paddy fields. The economic and financial rate of return of the project are considered very important decision making criteria for project implementation by resource allocation. Therefore this study covered benefit and cost analysis of the sampled area, the estimated financial rate of returns in $Buy{\check{o}}$ and Jinsung are represented 15% and 51% respectively and the economic rate of returns in both project area are also showing 1% and 26% respectively. The rate of return of the projects has showed an outstanding variance according to the locational and natural characteristics of the project area. As showing the above economic rate of return, $Buy{\check{o}}$ is very low Jinsung is very high. But the financial rate of return of both projects are considered comparatively high. Cosequently, the drainage improvement projects should be promoted from the view point of farm income increase to make narrow the income gap between rural and urban incomes and farm mechanization to solve labor shortage in the rural area.

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유료노인주거시설에 대한 투자 의사결정을 위한 수요자 요구 분석 (Customers' Needs Analysis for Investment Decision Making in Residential Facility for Retired Seniors)

  • 진미연;최종수
    • 한국건축시공학회지
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 2008
  • It is expected that the market of residential facility for retired seniors will be a new investment field for construction firms. This study describes the questionnaire survey analysis results of potential customers' demand for the facility. For comparison purpose, direct construction cost was estimated by estimation experts. In addition, a case analysis was conducted to compare direct cost and indirect project cost with the experts' estimation. According to the questionnaire survey analysis, it is observed that there were significant differences in demand between groups which are classified by the regions, living expenditures, the level of property ownership and the scales of residence. From an investor's perspective, investment decision on residential facility for retired seniors should be made considering bothe the level of returns which can be generated from the investment and the customers' needs.

포트폴리오 기법을 이용한 복수어종의 최적 생산관리 전략 (A Strategy for Optimal Production Management of Multi-Species Fisheries using a Portfolio Approach)

  • 김도훈
    • 수산경영론집
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    • 제45권1호
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    • pp.109-119
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    • 2014
  • This study aimed to examine the applicability of a portfolio approach to the ecosystem-based fisheries management targeting the large purse seine fishery. Most fisheries are targeting multispecies and species are biologically and technically interacted each other. It enables a portfolio approach to be applied to find optimal production of each species through expected returns and risk analyses. Under specific assumptions on the harvest quota by species, efficient risk-return frontiers were generated and they showed a combination of optimal production level. Comparisons between portfolio and actual production provided a useful information for targeting strategy and management. Results also showed the possibility of effective multispecies fisheries management by imposing constraints on each species such as total allowable catch quotas.

Can Big Data Help Predict Financial Market Dynamics?: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market

  • Pyo, Dong-Jin
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.147-165
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    • 2017
  • This study quantifies the dynamic interrelationship between the KOSPI index return and search query data derived from the Naver DataLab. The empirical estimation using a bivariate GARCH model reveals that negative contemporaneous correlations between the stock return and the search frequency prevail during the sample period. Meanwhile, the search frequency has a negative association with the one-week- ahead stock return but not vice versa. In addition to identifying dynamic correlations, the paper also aims to serve as a test bed in which the existence of profitable trading strategies based on big data is explored. Specifically, the strategy interpreting the heightened investor attention as a negative signal for future returns appears to have been superior to the benchmark strategy in terms of the expected utility over wealth. This paper also demonstrates that the big data-based option trading strategy might be able to beat the market under certain conditions. These results highlight the possibility of big data as a potential source-which has been left largely untapped-for establishing profitable trading strategies as well as developing insights on stock market dynamics.

Portfolio Optimization with Groupwise Selection

  • Kim, Namhyoung;Sra, Suvrit
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.442-448
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    • 2014
  • Portfolio optimization in the presence of estimation error can be stabilized by incorporating norm-constraints; this result was shown by DeMiguel et al. (A generalized approach to portfolio optimization: improving performance by constraining portfolio norms, Management Science, 5, 798-812, 2009), who reported empirical performance better than numerous competing approaches. We extend the idea of norm-constraints by introducing a powerful enhancement, grouped selection for portfolio optimization. Here, instead of merely penalizing norms of the assets being selected, we penalize groups, where within a group assets are treated alike, but across groups, the penalization may differ. The idea of groupwise selection is grounded in statistics, but to our knowledge, it is novel in the context of portfolio optimization. Novelty aside, the real benefits of groupwise selection are substantiated by experiments; our results show that groupwise asset selection leads to strategies with lower variance, higher Sharpe ratios, and even higher expected returns than the ordinary norm-constrained formulations.

e-Business가 기업의 시장 가치에 미치는 영향에 대한 분석 (The Impact of e-Business Announcements on the Market Value of Firms)

  • 이호근;조동환;전지현
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.185-208
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    • 2001
  • A growing number of firms are competitively entering into e-business because they see the high potential of e-business growth as an opportunity. The positive expectation of e-business market leads most firms to go into e-business, but it is not clarified what kinds of benefits firms gain through e-business. In this paper, we examine whether firms' economic benefits are related to e-business activities. For this purpose, we employ event study methodology and assess the cumulative abnormal returns for 782 e-business initiatives made by firms listed in Korean capital markets. The well-known "Dot Com Effect" is empirically verified through this study. The results of this study indicate that the e-business potential is highly evaluated in the capital market, and e-business firms are expected to create significant benefits in the future period.

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ERP 도입이후 변화관리의 중요도에 대한 연구: 정보역량 관점에서 (The Importance of Change Management after ERP Implementation: An Information Capability Perspective)

  • 이승창;이호근
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 2007
  • This research proposes a conceptual framework to highlight the importance of change management after firms implement ERP systems. With ERP, firms need to rework their business processes to make information flow smoothly within organizations. Firms cannot realize expected returns from ERP investments unless changes are effectively managed after ERP systems are put into operation. The research model is empirically tested using data collected from over 170 firms that had used ERP systems at least for more than one year. Our analysis reveals that the eventual success of ERP systems depends on effective change management after ERP implementation, supporting the existence of the 'valley of despair.

DEA를 활용한 민간 기업의 R&D 효율성 분석 사례: 공작기계 A사를 중심으로 (R&D Efficiency Analysis Case of the Machine Tools Industry by Using DEA)

  • 전수진;이진수;홍재범
    • 기술혁신연구
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.27-53
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    • 2016
  • 본 사례는 공작기계산업의 A사에서 수행한 R&D 개발완료 과제 79건을 대상으로 R&D 효율성을 DEA를 활용하여 분석하고, 그 개선방안을 제시한 것이다. DEA 분석에서 투입변수는 R&D 투자비와 연구인력 맨먼스, 산출변수는 개발기간 목표달성률과 예상매출액(5년간)으로 설정하였으며, 표본은 제품, 선행기술, 제어기술로 구분하여 분석하였다. 여기서 선행기술은 제품성능을 위한 요소기술과 응용프로그램을 개발하는 것이고 제어기술은 컴퓨터를 토대로 수치제어 프로그램을 설계하는 것이다. 분석결과에 따르면 제품, 제어기술, 선행기술 순으로 효율적으로 운영되고 있어 선행기술의 효율성이 가장 낮았다. 그 이유는 선행기술의 불학실성에 기인한다. 선행기술은 개발목표를 정하기 어렵고 개발계획도 수립하기 어렵다. 심지어 운영하는 과정에도 환경변화가 영향을 미친다. 투자효율성 분석결과에서 CRS는 제품 34.6%, 선행기술 14.3%, 제어기술 38.9%이다. IRS는 제품 53.8%, 선행기술 85.7%, 제어기술 38.9%이다. DRS는 제품 11.5%, 선행기술 0%, 제어기술 22.2%이다. 전체적으로 본 사례는 과다투입보다는 과소투입이 문제가 되고 있다. 이는 R&D 투자 부족을 의미한다. 주목할 부분은 기업의 미래 경쟁력이 될 수 있는 응용기술에 대한 과소투입이 심각하다는 것이다. 비효율적 DMU의 효율적 운영을 위해서는 최적의 투입량을 관리해야 하며, 이것은 준거집단과의 비교를 통해 구할 수 있다.

기업의 시장성과는 신용위험에 영향을 미치는가? (Does Market Performance Influence Credit Risk?)

  • 임형주;다피드 말리
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구는 당기 주가수익률과 차기 신용등급 및 신용등급 변화와의 관련성을 검증하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 신용등급평가사들은 개별 기업의 채무불이행위험(default risk)을 측정하여 최종 신용등급을 결정하는데 기업의 높은 주가수익률은 낮은 위험(default risk)으로 인지될 가능성이 있다. 반면 시장참여자들은 효율적으로 높은 수익을 달성하기 위하여 규모가 크고 안정적인 기업보다 고수익을 달성할 수 있는 신용위험(risk)이 높은 기업들의 주식을 선호할 가능성 역시 배제할 수 없다. 이는 실증적으로 해결되어야 할 문제이며 현재까지 이러한 관련성을 고찰한 연구는 부재하다. 본 연구는 2002년부터 2013년까지 회사채를 발행한 유가증권 상장기업을 대상으로 당기 주가수익률과 차기 신용등급 및 신용등급의 관련성을 검증하였고, 그 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 먼저 당기 주가수익률은 차기 신용등급과 유의한 음(-)의 관련성이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 신용평가사들이 주가수익률을 채무불이행 위험의 대리변수로 고려하지 않음을 예측케 하는 결과이고, 오히려 투자자들은 신용등급이 낮은 기업의 주식을 선호한다고 해석할 수 있다. 본 연구는 직관과는 달리 주가수익률과 신용등급의 음(-)의 관련성을 찾은 최초의 연구로써 신용평가사 및 시장참여자들에게 의미 있는 통찰력을 제공할 것으로 기대한다.