• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expected Annual Damage

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Expected Annual Damage Estimation with Uncertainty (불확실성을 고려한 연피해 기대치 산정)

  • Kim, Hung Soo;Kim, Yoo Jin;Lee, Ji-Won
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.41-52
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    • 2003
  • The flood damage reduction studies have been performed by the channel improvement plan and the levee has mainly constructed with the freeboard concept. However, the freeboard concept might be an inappropriate choice as a safety factor of the levee because many uncertainties are involved in the procedure of the channel improvement plan studies. So, we considered the uncertainties In the discharge-probability, stage-discharge, and stage-damage functions and estimate the expected annual damage. The Monte Carlo technique for uncertainty analysis is used. As our results, the expected annual damage with uncertainty shows the larger value than without uncertainty. Since the expected annual damage with uncertainty already considers the safety factor it is the proper result. However, the expected annual damage without uncertainty does not consider the safety factor yet. Thus, if the expected annual damage without uncertainty considers the freeboard concept, it could be compared with the expected annual damage with uncertainty for the evaluation of the overestimation or underestimation of the levee construction.

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Climate Change-Induced Physical Risks' Impact on Korean Commercial Banks and Property Insurance Companies in the Long Run (기후변화의 위험이 시중은행과 손해보험에 장기적으로 미치는 영향)

  • Seiwan Kim
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.107-121
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    • 2024
  • In this study, we empirically analyzed the impact of physical risks due to climate change on the soundness and operational performance of the financial industry by combining economics and climatology. Particularly, unlike previous studies, we employed the Seasonal-Trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) method to extract trends of climate-related risk variables and economic-financial variables, conducting a two-stage empirical analysis. In the first stage estimation, we found that the delinquency rate and the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) ratio of commercial banks have significant negative effects on the damage caused by natural disasters, frequency of heavy rainfall, average temperature, and number of typhoons. On the other hand, for insurance companies, the damage from natural disasters, frequency of heavy rainfall, frequency of heavy snowfall, and annual average temperature have significant negative effects on return on assets (ROA) and the risk-based capital ratio (RBC). In the second stage estimation, based on the first stage results, we predicted the soundness and operational performance indicators of commercial banks and insurance companies until 2035. According to the forecast results, the delinquency rate of commercial banks is expected to increase steadily until 2035 under assumption that recent years' trend continues until 2035. It indicates that banks' managerial risk can be seriously worsened from climate change. Also the BIS ratio is expected to decrease which also indicates weakening safety buffer against climate risks over time. Additionally, the ROA of insurance companies is expected to decrease, followed by an increase in the RBC, and then a subsequent decrease.

Development of the Wind Wave Damage Predicting Functions in southern sea based on Annual Disaster Reports (재해연보기반 남해연안지역 풍랑피해 예측함수 개발)

  • Choo, Tai Ho;Kim, Yeong Sik;Sim, Sang Bo;Son, Jong Keun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.668-675
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    • 2018
  • The continuing urbanization and industrialization around the world has required a large amount of power. Therefore, construction of major infrastructure, including nuclear power plants in coastal areas, has accelerated. In addition, the intensity of natural disasters is increasing due to global warming and abnormal climate phenomena. Natural disasters are difficult to predict in terms of occurrence, location, and scale, resulting in human casualties and property damage. For these reasons, the disaster scale and damage estimation in coastal areas have become important issues. The present study examined the predictable weather data and regional ratings and developed estimating functions for wind wave damage based on the disaster statistics in the southern areas. The results of the present study are expected to help disaster management in advance of the wind wave damage. The NRMSE was used for verification. The accuracy of the NRMSE results ranged from 1.61% to 21.73%.

An Empirical Study on the Cost Behavior in Coastal Fishery (연안어선어업 피해율 산정을 위한 원가행태에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Woo-Soo;Kim, Kil-Yong
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2011
  • It is necessary to set up a standard of estimation for annual unit price of sale and cost, damage rate for calculating compensation against fishery damage objectively. Two items on the unit price and cost have regulations but the damage rate has not, so it may occurred some problems such as reasonability and balance because the estimation should be handling by an appraiser's knowledge and experience. This study has analyzed using Regression model and searched variable costs and fixed costs about each items appraisers to operate in the present. It is compare profit damage index is calculated by an estimated model and an appraised example. This analysis showed highly 23-30% estimated model more than appraised example. It means the overestimation for fishery damage. This difference has caused by limited data, lack of sample, much difference in the standard deviation, and has not classified each kind of business and weight of coastal fishery, the overestimation more than what expected. This study has analyzed that the applied rate of fixed and variable cost in relation to the compensation in the cost of coastal fishery is very valuable.

Multi-Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis (Ⅱ): Application (다차원 홍수피해산정방법 (Ⅱ): 적용)

  • Choi, Seung-An;Yi, Choong-Sung;Shim, Myung-Pil;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.1 s.162
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2006
  • This study is that MD-FDA and the existing method were applied together the outlet project under the construction in the Gulpo River basin. The results of both of them mot the economic feasibility of the Project. But, MD-FDA evaluated the suitable damage according to situations; 1) without project, 2) after 20m outlet construction, 3) after 80m outlet construction. That is, MD-FDA could exactly evaluate the Annual Expected Flood Damage by considering the characteristics to the inundated area. If M-FDA may use in the flood control projects, the projects will be able to be taken into account all characteristics of the total damage area and performed by reasonable criteria.

Flood Damage Reduction Plan Using HEC-FDA Model (HEC-FDA 모형을 이용한 홍수피해 저감계획)

  • Lee, Jongso;Kim, Duckhwan;Kim, Jungwook;Han, Daegun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.237-244
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    • 2015
  • This study is estimated the flood damage probability of the flood discharge, the flood stage estimation and Economic Analysis for Flood Control about considering of uncertainty. Sum River Basin has chosen and the probability precipitation is estimated by using the concept of critical rainfall duration depending on the frequency of each flood stage estimation point. For calculating the expected annual damage, the functions of long term hazard, discharge-frequency, stage-discharge and depth-damage are established for 8 areas in Sum River Basin. The expected annual damaged is obtained which is based on the sampling informations through more than 500,000 simulation from the functions of considered uncertainty. The result about the optimum frequency and Investment Priorities are estimated by conducting the evaluation about planning the levee of various of Design Frequency. In analysis result, 12% of B/C value has increased if the uncertainty has concerned. Also the optimum frequency or Investment Priorities are possible to be changed. If the political and social analysis perform together it would be helpful to have a reasonable decision other than only the economical analysis as actual Flood damaged reduction planning.

Development of Estimation Technique for Rice Yield Reduction by Inundation Damage (침수피해에 의한 벼 감수량 추정기법 개발)

  • Park , Jong-Min;Kim , Sang-Min;Seong, Chung-Hyun;Park, Seung-Woo
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2004
  • The amount of rice yield reduction due to inundation should be estimated to analyse economic efficiency of the farmland drainage improvement projects because those projects are generally promoted to mitigate flood inundation damage to rice in Korea. Estimation of rice yield reduction will also provide information on the flood risk performance to farmers. This study presented the relationships between inundated durations and rice yield reduction rates for different rice growth stages from the observed data collected from 1966 to 2000 in Korea, and developed the rice yield reduction estimation model (RYREM). RYREM was applied to the test watershed for estimating the rice yield reduction rates and the amount of expected average annual rice yield reduction by the rainfalls with 48 hours duration, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 years return periods.

A Study on The Countermeasure by The Types through Case Analysis of Industrial Secret Leakage Accident (산업기밀 유출사고 사례분석을 통한 유형별 대응방안 연구)

  • Chang, Hangbae
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.15 no.7
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    • pp.39-45
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    • 2015
  • Industrial secrets that companies own recently protected by various act related industrial security such as Trade Secret Act, Act on Prevention of Divulgence and Protection of Industrial Technology, etc. However, despite such protection infringement and leakage accidents of industrial secrets is increasing every year. According to a survey conducted by KAITS(Korean Association for Industrial Technology Security) annual average of estimated damage by industrial secrets leakage is estimated to be "50 trillion won." This is equivalent to the amount of annual revenue of small businesses more than 4,700 units. Following this, industrial secrets leakage causes serious damages to competitiveness of nation and companies and economic. However investment and effort to the industrial secrets leakage crime is lack of level compared to the scale of damage. Actually, most companies except some major companies are lack of response action about industrial secrets leakage because of shortage of separate organization, workforce, budget for industrial secrets leakage security. This paper aims to understand the overall flow of the industrial secrets leakage crime through various taxonomy such as cause of occurrence and leakage pathway and grasp the condition of damage from industrial secrets leakage through analyzation of internal and external industrial secrets leakage crime. This is expected to be the basis for related research.

Monthly Changes in Temperature Extremes over South Korea Based on Observations and RCP8.5 Scenario (관측 자료와 RCP8.5 시나리오를 이용한 우리나라 극한기온의 월별 변화)

  • Kim, Jin-Uk;Kwon, Won-Tae;Byun, Young-Hwa
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2015
  • In this study, we have investigated monthly changes in temperature extremes in South Korea for the past (1921~2010) and the future (2011~2100). We used seven stations' (Gangneung, Seoul, Incheon, Daegu, Jeonju, Busan, Mokpo) data from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) for the past. For the future we used the closest grid point values to observations from the RCP8.5 scenario of 1 km resolution. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI)'s climate extreme indices were employed to quantify the characteristics of temperature extremes change. Temperature extreme indices in summer have increased while those in winter have decreased in the past. The extreme indices are expected to change more rapidly in the future than in the past. The number of frost days (FD) is projected to decrease in the future, and the occurrence period will be shortened by two months at the end of the $21^{st}$ century (2071~2100) compared to the present (1981~2010). The number of hot days (HD) is projected to increase in the future, and the occurrence period is projected to lengthen by two months at the end of the $21^{st}$ century compared to the present. The annual highest temperature and its fluctuation is expected to increase. Accordingly, the heat damage is also expected to increase. The result of this study can be used as an information on damage prevention measures due to temperature extreme events.

Techniques of flood damage investigation and flood losses data management (홍수재해조사 및 재해자료관리 기법)

  • 김양수
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.36-51
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    • 2000
  • Almost every year, Korean suffered from the repetitive natural disasters such as typhoons and floods. During last 10 years, Korea experienced annual average of $50 million property damages caused by inundation. To estabilish the flood disaster counter plan, knowledge for flood damage causes based on the field investigations of inundated area is required. The field investigations is focused on technique to document and analyze the meteorological conditions leading to torrential rains, the causes and patterns of flooding, the performance of flood control structures in affected areas, the extent damages and the effectiveness of local emergency response and recovery actions. We did comparative analysis of field investigation techniques. As a major goal of flood hazard map design, one of non structural disaster countermeasures, it was expected to reduce flood damage losses by requiring local governments to implement land-use regulation that would result in safe building practices in flood hazard areas. This requires local governments to develop flood hazard maps to assess how to manage particularly vulnerable floodplain areas. In this study we suggested a design manual and the management system of flood hazard map.

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