Journal of Wetlands Research (한국습지학회지)

Korean Wetlands Society (한국습지학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Flood Damage Reduction Plan Using HEC-FDA Model

HEC-FDA 모형을 이용한 홍수피해 저감계획

  • Lee, Jongso (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University) ;
  • Kim, Duckhwan (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University) ;
  • Kim, Jungwook (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University) ;
  • Han, Daegun (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University) ;
  • Kim, Hung Soo (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University)
  • Received : 2015.05.27
  • Accepted : 2015.07.22
  • Published : 2015.08.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This study is estimated the flood damage probability of the flood discharge, the flood stage estimation and Economic Analysis for Flood Control about considering of uncertainty. Sum River Basin has chosen and the probability precipitation is estimated by using the concept of critical rainfall duration depending on the frequency of each flood stage estimation point. For calculating the expected annual damage, the functions of long term hazard, discharge-frequency, stage-discharge and depth-damage are established for 8 areas in Sum River Basin. The expected annual damaged is obtained which is based on the sampling informations through more than 500,000 simulation from the functions of considered uncertainty. The result about the optimum frequency and Investment Priorities are estimated by conducting the evaluation about planning the levee of various of Design Frequency. In analysis result, 12% of B/C value has increased if the uncertainty has concerned. Also the optimum frequency or Investment Priorities are possible to be changed. If the political and social analysis perform together it would be helpful to have a reasonable decision other than only the economical analysis as actual Flood damaged reduction planning.

본 연구에서는 홍수량과 홍수위 산정 및 치수경제성 분석을 함에 있어 본질적으로 내재되어 있는 불확실성에 대한 고려를 분석에 포함하여 피해발생확률을 추정하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 섬강유역을 대상유역으로 선정하였고 각 홍수량 산정지점에서의 빈도별로 임계지속시간 개념을 사용하여 빈도별 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 유역내 8개구간을 대상으로 연 피해 기대치, 연 초과확률, 장기간 위험도, 조건부 비초과확률 등을 계산하기 위해 HEC-FDA를 이용하여 유량-빈도, 수위-유량, 침수심-피해액 함수를 구축 하였으며 불확실성이 고려된 함수들로부터 500,000번 이상의 모의발생을 통하여 표본 추출한 자료를 바탕으로 연 피해 기대치를 구하였다. 여러 가지 설계빈도의 제방을 계획하여 이에 대한 평가를 수행하여 적정 빈도나 투자우선순위에 대한 결과를 산정하였다. 분석결과 불확실성을 고려할 경우 B/C값이 12%정도 증가됨을 알 수 있었으며, 적정 빈도나 투자우선순위 등도 바뀔 가능성이 있었다. 실제 홍수피해 저감계획시 경제적인 분석이외에 정치적, 사회적인 분석을 함께 수행한다면 보다 합리적인 결정에 도움을 줄 수 있을것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

References

  1. Binley, AM, Beven, KJ, Calver A and Watts, LG (1991), Changing Responses in Hydrology : Assessing the uncertainty in Physically Based model prediction, Water Resources Research, Vol.27(16), pp. 1253-1261. https://doi.org/10.1029/91WR00130
  2. Clarke, RT (1999) Uncertainty in the estimation of mean annual flood due to rating-curve indefinition, J. of hydrology, Vol.222, pp. 185-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(99)00097-9
  3. Davis, DW (1991) A risk and uncertainty based concept for sizing levee project, Proc. of a Hydrology and Hydraurics Workshop on Riverine Levee Freeboard, U.S. Army Corps of Engineering Center, pp. 231-249.
  4. Freeman, Gray E., Copeland, Ronald R., and Cowan, Mark A. (1996), Uncertainty in Stage-Discharge Relationships, Proceedings, 7th IAHR International Symposium on Stochastic Hydraulics, Mackay, Queensland, Australia, IAHR.
  5. IPCC(2007). Climate Change 2007, The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
  6. Kim, HS, Kim, YS and Lee, JW (2003). Expected annual damage estimation with uncertainty, J. of Wetlands Research, 5(1) pp. 41-52 [Korean Literature]
  7. Lee, KH (2011). Estimation of expected flood damage considering uncertainty and under climate change, Ph.D Dissertation, Inha University, Incheon, Korea [Korean Literature]
  8. Ministry of Construction & Transportation. (2000). Analysis of temporal variations for determining the local design storms [Korean Literature]
  9. Ministry of Land Transport and Maritime Affairs. (2009). River design criteria [Korean Literature]
  10. Morgan, G. and Henrion, M. (1990), Uncertainty, a Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
  11. National Research Council (2000), Risk Analysis and Uncertainty in Flood Damage Reduction Studies, National Academy of Science. pp. 1-202
  12. US Army Corps of Engineers (1996), Engineering and Design: Risk-based Analysis for Flood Damage Reduction Studies.
  13. US Army Corps of Engineers (2008), HEC-FDA Flood Damage Reduction Analysis.