• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.72-80
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• 2016

The market size of plant projects in overseas is so large that domestic EPC project contractors are actively seeking the overseas projects and then trying to meet completion plans since successful fulfillment of these projects can provide great opportunities for them to expand into new foreign markets. International EPC projects involve all of the uncertainties common to domestic projects as well as uncertainties specific to foreign projects including marine transportation, customs, regulations, nationality, culture and so on. When overseas project gets off-schedule, the resulting uncertainty may trigger unexpected exceptions and then critical effects to the project performance. It usually require much more time and costs to encounter these exceptions in foreign sites compared to domestic project sites. Therefore, an exception handling approach is required to manage exceptions effectively for successful project progress in foreign project sites. In this research, we proposed a methodology for prediction and evaluation of exceptions caused by risks in international EPC projects based on sensitivity analysis and Bayesian Networks. First, we identified project schedule risks and related exceptions, which may meet during the fulfillment of foreign EPC projects that is performed in a sequence of engineering, procurement, preparatory manufacture, foreign shipping, construction, inspection and modification activities, and affect project performance, using literature review and expert interviews. The impact of exceptions to the schedule delay were also identified. Second, we proposed a methodology to predict the occurrence of exceptions caused by project risks and evaluate them. Using sensitivity analysis, we can identify activities that critically affect schedule delay and need to focus by priority. Then, we use Bayesian Networks to predict and evaluate exceptions. Third, we applied the proposed methodology to an international EPC project example to validate the proposed approach. Finally, we concluded the research with the further research topics. We expect that the proposed approach can be extended to apply in exception management in project management.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SD
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• v.37 no.12
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• pp.79-90
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• 2000

In this paper, a high-performance floating point unit, which is suitable for high-performance superscalar microprocessors and supports IEEE 754 standard, is designed. Floating-point arithmetic unit (AU) supports all denormalized number processing through hardware, while eliminating the additional delay time due to the denormalized number processing by proposing the proposed gradual underflow prediction (GUP) scheme. Contrary to the existing fixed-radix implementations, floating-point divide/square root unit adopts a new architecture which determines variable length quotient bits per cycle. The new architecture is superior to the SRT implementations in terms of performance and design complexity. Moreover, sophisticated exception prediction scheme enables precise exception to be implemented with ease on various superscalar microprocessors, and removes the stall cycles in division. Designed floating-point AU and divide/square root unit are integrated with and instruction decoder, register file, memory model and multiplier to form a floating-point unit, and its function and performance is verified.

• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.323-337
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• 2015

This study explores the 6-month lead prediction skill of several climate indices that influence on East Asian climate in the GloSea5 hindcast experiment. Such indices include Nino3.4, Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD), Arctic Oscillation (AO), various summer and winter Asian monsoon indices. The model's prediction skill of these indices is evaluated by computing the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean squared skill score (MSSS) for ensemble mean values over the period of 1996~2009. In general, climate indices that have low seasonal variability are predicted well. For example, in terms of ACC, Nino3.4 index is predicted well at least 6 months in advance. The IOD index is also well predicted in late summer and autumn. This contrasts with the prediction skill of AO index which shows essentially no skill beyond a few months except in February and August. Both summer and winter Asian monsoon indices are also poorly predicted. An exception is the Western North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) index that exhibits a prediction skill up to 4- to 6-month lead time. However, when MSSS is considered, most climate indices, except Nino3.4 index, show a negligible prediction skill, indicating that conditional bias is significant in the model. These results are only weakly sensitive to the number of ensemble members.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.11 no.11
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• pp.44-50
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• 2021

Recently, enterprise storage systems that require large-capacity storage devices to accommodate big data have used large-capacity flash memory-based storage devices with high density compared to cost and size. This paper proposes a high-efficiency life prediction method with slope descent to maximize the life of flash memory media that directly affects the reliability and usability of large enterprise storage devices. To this end, this paper proposes the structure of a matrix for storing metadata for learning the frequency of defects and proposes a cost model using metadata. It also proposes a life expectancy prediction policy in exceptional situations when defects outside the learned range occur. Lastly, it was verified through simulation that a method proposed by this paper can maximize its life compared to a life prediction method based on the fixed number of times and the life prediction method based on the remaining ratio of spare blocks, which has been used to predict the life of flash memory.

• Korean Journal of Childcare and Education
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.127-143
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• 2024

Objective: The purpose of this study is to develop a machine learning model to predict the subsequent childbirth intention of married women with one child, aiming to address the low birth rate problem in Korea, This will be achieved by utilizing data from the 2021 Family and Childbirth Survey conducted by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs. Methods: A prediction model was developed using the Random Forest algorithm to predict the subsequent childbirth intention of married women with one child. This algorithm was chosen for its advantages in prediction and generalization, and its performance was evaluated. Results: The significance of variables influencing the Random Forest prediction model was confirmed. With the exception of the presence or absence of leave before and after childbirth, most variables contributed to predicting the intention to have subsequent childbirth. Notably, variables such as the mother's age, number of children planned at the time of marriage, average monthly household income, spouse's share of childcare burden, mother's weekday housework hours, and presence or absence of spouse's maternity leave emerged as relatively important predictors of subsequent childbirth intention.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.227-233
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• 2021

Predictive maintenance has been one of important applications of data science technology that creates a predictive model by collecting numerous data related to management targeted equipment. It does not predict equipment failure with just one or two signs, but quantifies and models numerous symptoms and historical data of actual failure. Statistical methods were used a lot in the past as this predictive maintenance method, but recently, many machine learning-based methods have been proposed. Such proposed machine learning-based methods are preferable in that they show more accurate prediction performance. However, with the exception of some learning models such as decision tree-based models, it is very difficult to explicitly know the structure of learning models (Black-Box Model) and to explain to what extent certain attributes (features or variables) of the learning model affected the prediction results. To overcome this problem, a recently proposed study is an explainable artificial intelligence (AI). It is a methodology that makes it easy for users to understand and trust the results of machine learning-based learning models. In this paper, we propose an explainable AI method to further enhance the explanatory power of the existing learning model by targeting the previously proposedpredictive model [5] that learned data from a core facility (Hyper Compressor) of a domestic chemical plant that produces polyethylene. The ensemble prediction model, which is a black box model, wasconverted to a white box model using the Explainable AI. The proposed methodology explains the direction of control for the major features in the failure prediction results through the Explainable AI. Through this methodology, it is possible to flexibly replace the timing of maintenance of the machine and supply and demand of parts, and to improve the efficiency of the facility operation through proper pre-control.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.301-304
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• 2002

The EPIC model was applied to assess the environmental impacts of two contrasting tillage systems (conventional versus ridge tillage). The model was calibrated with field data and validated with another set of data. The errors between the 12-year predicted and observed means or medians were less than 10% for nearly all of the environmental indicators, with the major exception of a nearly 44% over prediction of the N surface runoff loss for Watershed 2. The predicted N leaching rates, N losses in surface runoff, and sediment loss clearly showed that EPIC was able to simulate the long-term impacts of tillage and residue cover on these processes.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.63-75
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• 2002

Most attempts at Bayesian analysis of neural networks involve hierarchical modeling. We believe that similar results can be obtained with simpler models that require less computational effort, as long as appropriate restrictions are placed on parameters in order to ensure propriety of posterior distributions. In particular, we adopt a model first introduced by Lee (1999) that utilizes an improper prior for all parameters. Straightforward Gibbs sampling is possible, with the exception of the bias parameters, which are embedded in nonlinear sigmoidal functions. In addition to the problems posed by nonlinearity, direct sampling from the posterior distributions of the bias parameters is compounded due to the duplication of hidden nodes, which is a source of multimodality. In this regard, we focus on sampling from the marginal posterior distribution of the bias parameters with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods that combine traditional Metropolis sampling with a slice sampler described by Neal (1997, 2001). The methods are illustrated with data examples that are largely confined to the analysis of nonparametric regression models.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.34-42
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• 1998

Three hardwood (ash, alder and black locust) and three softwood (Japanese red pine, radiata pine and Western hemlock) specimens were dried in microwave(MlW) oven and their drying rates were obtained. Their specific permeabilities were also measured by using a modified liquid permeability measuring device. The correlation between the M/W drying rates and permeabilities of six species were statistically analyzed. It was revealed that within a species there is a logarithmic relationship between the M/W drying rates and average moisture contents and that among species there is a linear relationship between the M/W maximum drying rates and the average specific permeabilities. A exception was Western hemlock, which was of low permeability and of high drying rate. A Me-time equation, which showed a good agreement with the actual data, was derived. Thus using this equation the moisture contents of wood and the drying end points of M/W drying could be predicted. Infrared images of the thermal distribution in wood were illustrated.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.22 no.10
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• pp.1314-1319
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• 2018

The current TW3 - based maximum height prediction technique used in KMAA(Korean Medical Academy of Auxology) is manual and subjective, and it requires a lot of time and effort in the medical treatment, while the interest in the child's growth is very high. In addition, the technique of classifying images using deep learning, especially convolutional neural networks, is used in many fields at a more accurate level than the human eyes, also there is no exception in the medical field. In this paper, we introduce a TW3 algorithm using deep learning, that uses the convolutional neural network to predict the growth level of the left hand bone, to predict the maximum height of child and youth in order to increase the reliability of predictions and improve the convenience of the doctor.