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http://dx.doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2015.25.2.323

Assessment of 6-Month Lead Prediction Skill of the GloSea5 Hindcast Experiment  

Jung, Myung-Il (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Son, Seok-Woo (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Choi, Jung (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Kang, Hyun-Suk (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Research)
Publication Information
Atmosphere / v.25, no.2, 2015 , pp. 323-337 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study explores the 6-month lead prediction skill of several climate indices that influence on East Asian climate in the GloSea5 hindcast experiment. Such indices include Nino3.4, Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD), Arctic Oscillation (AO), various summer and winter Asian monsoon indices. The model's prediction skill of these indices is evaluated by computing the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean squared skill score (MSSS) for ensemble mean values over the period of 1996~2009. In general, climate indices that have low seasonal variability are predicted well. For example, in terms of ACC, Nino3.4 index is predicted well at least 6 months in advance. The IOD index is also well predicted in late summer and autumn. This contrasts with the prediction skill of AO index which shows essentially no skill beyond a few months except in February and August. Both summer and winter Asian monsoon indices are also poorly predicted. An exception is the Western North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) index that exhibits a prediction skill up to 4- to 6-month lead time. However, when MSSS is considered, most climate indices, except Nino3.4 index, show a negligible prediction skill, indicating that conditional bias is significant in the model. These results are only weakly sensitive to the number of ensemble members.
Keywords
GloSea5; seasonal prediction; climate index;
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