• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.233-251
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• 2011

The seismic provisions of the current edition (2005) of the National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) differ significantly from the earlier edition. The current seismic provisions are based on the uniform hazard spectra corresponding to 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, as opposed to the seismic hazard level with 10% probablity of exeedance in 50 years used in the earlier edition. Moreover, the current code is presented in an objective-based format where the design is performed based on an acceptable solution. In the light of these changes, an assessment of the expected performance of the buildings designed according to the requirements of the current edition of NBCC would be very useful. In this paper, the seismic performance of a set of six, twelve, and eighteen story buildings of regular geometry and with concrete moment resisting frames, designed for Vancouver western Canada, has been evaluated. Although the effects of non-structural elements are not considered in the design, the non-structural elements connected to the lateral load resisting systems affect the seismic performance of a building. To simulate the non-structural elements, infill panels are included in some frame models. Spectrum compatible artificial ground motion records and scaled actual accelerograms have been used for evaluating the dynamic response. The performance has been evaluated for each building under various levels of seismic hazard with different probabilities of exceedance. From the study it has been observed that, although all the buildings achieved the life-safety performance as assumed in the design provisions of the building code, their performance characteristics are found to be non-uniform.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.450-457
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• 2016

The Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) is a watershed management system that involves the establishment of the target water quality, the calculation of permission loading (allocation loading), and the control of total pollutants for each unit watershed. Allocation loading is assessed through the comprehensive implementation assessment of the previous year's plan. Assessment results are used for follow-up management measures such as the limit of development and updating of TMDL Management Implementation Plans for the next planning period. Although detailed assessment criteria are important, they are not currently available. Therefore, we suggested assessment criteria by comparing two methods('integration method' and 'separation method') using combination point and non-point discharge loading. We also examined the penalty criteria considering controllable load local government and updating methods of the TMDL Management Implementation Plan for the next planning period.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제35권6호
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• pp.807-816
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• 2002

본 연구에서는 댐 건설에 따른 댐 하류 유황의 변화에 대해 살펴보고자 하였다. 이를 위해 대청댐이 위치해 있는 금강유역을 대상으로 하였으며, 댄 건설 전후의 인공위성 영상자료를 분석해서 댐 하류 수표면의 변화를 평가하였고, 유황변화에 대한 분석을 위해서는 대청댐 하류에 위치한 공주 수위관측소의 자료를 이용해서 댐의 건설에 따른 하류 유황변화를 분석을 실시하고 그 영향을 평가하였다. 또한, 댐의 홍수조절에 따른 홍수량 규모의 변화를 살펴보기 위해 대청댐 하류의 공주와 규암지점의 연 초과치 계열에 대한 빈도해석을 실시하고 그 변화를 분석하였다. 이를 통해 댐이 하류하천의 유황을 개선하고 일정하게 유지해서 안정적인 수자원 공급을 가능하게 해주는 역할과 첨두유량의 감소로 홍수피해를 저감시켜주는 역할을 동시에 담당하고 있음을 알 수 있었으며, 수자원의 관리 및 이용측면에서 이·치수에 기여하는 댐의 긍정적인 효과를 다시 한번 확인할 수 있었다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.106-106
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• 2015

The information of flow regimes continues to be norm in water resource and watershed management, in that stream flow regime is a crucial factor influencing water quality, geomorphology, and the community structure of stream biota. The objectives of this study were to estimate Korean stream flows from landscape variables, classify stream flow gages using hydraulic characteristics, and then apply these methods to ungaged biological monitoring sites for effective ecological assessment. Here I used a linear modeling approach (MLR, PCA, and PCR) to describe and predict seasonal flow statistics from landscape variables. MLR models were successfully built for a range of exceedance discharges and time frames (annual, January, May, July, and October), and these models explained a high degree of the observed variation with r squares ranging from 0.555 (Q95 in January) to 0.899 (Q05 in July). In validation testing, predicted and observed exceedance discharges were all significantly correlated (p<0.01) and for most models no significant difference was found between predicted and observed values (Paired samples T-test; p>0.05). I classified Korean stream flow regimes with respect to hydraulic and hydrologic regime into four categories: flashier and higher-powered (F-HP), flashier and lower-powered (F-LP), more stable and higher-powered (S-HP), and more stable and lower-powered (S-LP). These four categories of Korean streams were related to with the characteristics of environmental variables, such as catchment size, site slope, stream order, and land use patterns. I then applied the models at 684 ungaged biological sampling sites used in the National Aquatic Ecological Monitoring Program in order to classify them with respect to basic hydrologic characteristics and similarity to the government's array of hydrologic gauging stations. Flashier-lower powered sites appeared to be relatively over-represented and more stable-higher powered sites under-represented in the bioassessment data sets.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.303-316
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• 2023

Rapid post-earthquake damage estimation of subway stations is particularly necessary to improve short-term crisis management and safety measures of urban subway systems after a destructive earthquake. The conventional Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework with constant earthquake occurrence rate is invalid to estimate the aftershock risk because of the time-varying rate of aftershocks and the uncertainty of mainshock-damaged state before the occurrence of aftershocks. This study presents a time-varying probabilistic seismic risk assessment framework for underground structures considering mainshock and aftershock hazards. A discrete non-omogeneous Markov process is adopted to quantify the time-varying nature of aftershock hazard and the uncertainties of structural damage states following mainshock. The time-varying seismic risk of a typical rectangular frame subway station is assessed under mainshock-only (MS) hazard and mainshock-aftershock (MSAS) hazard. The results show that the probabilities of exceeding same limit states over the service life under MSAS hazard are larger than the values under MS hazard. For the same probability of exceedance, the higher response demands are found when aftershocks are considered. As the severity of damage state for the station structure increases, the difference of the probability of exceedance increases when aftershocks are considered. PSDR=1.0% is used as the collapse prevention performance criteria for the subway station is reasonable for both the MS hazard and MSAS hazard. However, if the effect of aftershock hazard is neglected, it can significantly underestimate the response demands and the uncertainties of potential damage states for the subway station over the service life.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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• pp.191-191
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• 2021

최근 이상기후 및 기후변화에 의한 영향으로, 집중호우 및 대형호우 사상이 빈번하게 발생하고 이로 인한 홍수피해가 급증하고 있다. 지난 2020년 한반도 전역에서 발생한 호우사상은 56일간 지속된 최장기간 강우로 기록되었고, 일부 유역에 대해서 500년 빈도의 강우로 기록되기도 하였다. 이는 2020년 기준 치수시설물 설계기준 중 최상위 기준인 200년 빈도를 상회하는 대규모 호우사상으로, 기후위기에 따른 기존 치수대책의 검토가 필요한 실정이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기존 설계기준 산정을 위한 강우강도-지속기간-빈도 곡선(Intensity-Duration-Frequency curve, IDF curve) 작성 시 사용된 강우 빈도해석의 대안으로서 연초과확률을 이용한 IDF 곡선 산정을 제안하고자 한다. 기존 치수시설물 설계기준에서 활용되고 있는 강우 빈도해석의 경우 분포형의 종류에 따라서 극한사상에 대한 불확실성이 큰 문제를 가지고 있으며, 최상위 기준인 200년 빈도를 넘는 빈도에 대해서 산정된 값을 사용하기에는 어려움이 있다. 또한 통계학적 이론에 근거하여 산정되는 '빈도(Frequency)' 라는 개념의 의미는 발생가능성을 내포한 재현기간으로 명확한 반면, 관련 의사결정자 혹은 민간에서 받아들이는 의미는 발생주기 혹은 재발에 대한 보장기간 등으로 오해하는 경향이 있어, 혼란을 야기하고 있다. 따라서 설계기준 산정을 위한 IDF 곡선 작성시 빈도(Frequency)를 연강우량에 대한 초과확률인 연초과확률(Annual Exceedance Probability)에 근거하여 산정하여 보다 직관적인 설계기준을 제시하고자 한다. 또한 홍수피해 발생이력을 기준으로 대상지역을 선정하고, 기존 빈도(Frequency)에 근거한 IDF 곡선 및 설계기준과 연초과확률에 근거한 IDF 곡선 및 설계기준을 산정 및 비교하여 적용성을 평가하고, 효율적인 치수시설물의 설계기준을 제안하고자 한다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.1661-1671
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• 2016

Risk analysis is a systematic study of uncertainties and risks we encounter in business, engineering, public policy, and many other areas. Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the most widely used risk measurements in risk management. In this paper, the Korean Composite Stock Price Index data has been utilized to model the VaR employing the classical ARMA (1,1)-GARCH (1,1) models with normal, t, generalized hyperbolic, and generalized pareto distributed errors. The aim of this paper is to compare the performance of each model in estimating the VaR. The performance of models were compared in terms of the number of VaR violations and Kupiec exceedance test. The GARCH-GPD likelihood ratio unconditional test statistic has been found to have the smallest value among the models.

• Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
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• 제4권
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• pp.51-63
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• 1993

This study is to verify the applicability of statistical models in predicting flood frequency at the stage gaging stations of which the flow is under natural condition in the Han River basin. The results of the study show that the statistical flood frequency models were proven to be fairly reasonable to apply in practice, and also were compared with sampling variance to calibrate the statistical efficiency of the estimators of the T year floods Q(T) by two different flood frequency models. As a result, it was showed that for return periods greater than about T = 10 years the annual exceedance series estimators of Q(T) has smaller sampling variance than the annual maximum series estimators. It was showed that for the range of return periods the partial duration series estimators of !(T) has smaller sampling variance than the annual maximum series estimate only if the POT model contains at least 2N(N : record length) items or more in order to estimate Q(T) more efficiently than the ANNMAX model.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.127-145
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• 2009

A novel approach is proposed to effectively estimate the quantile functions of normalized performance indices of reliability constraints in a reliability-based optimization (RBO) problem. These quantile functions are not only estimated as functions of exceedance probabilities but also as functions of the design variables of the target RBO problem. Once these quantile functions are obtained, all reliability constraints in the target RBO problem can be transformed into non-probabilistic ordinary ones, and the RBO problem can be solved as if it is an ordinary optimization problem. Two numerical examples are investigated to verify the proposed novel approach. The results show that the approach may be capable of finding approximate solutions that are close to the actual solution of the target RBO problem.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제39권3호
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• pp.303-316
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• 2011

Experimental tests have shown that glass exhibits very different strengths when tested under biaxial and uniaxial conditions. This paper presents a study on the effects of biaxial stresses on the notional ultimate strength of glass. The study involved applying the theory of elasticity and finite element analysis of the Griffith flaw in the micro scale. The strain intensity at the tip of the critical flaw is used as the main criterion for defining the limit state of fracture in glass. A simple and robust relationship between the maximum principal stress and the uniaxial stress to cause failure of the same glass specimen has been developed. The relationship has been used for evaluating the strength values of both new and old annealed glass panels. The characteristic strength values determined in accordance with the test results based on 5% of exceedance are compared with provisions in the ASTM standard.