• Title/Summary/Keyword: Event Tree Methodology

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The Construction Methodology of a Rule-based Expert System using CART-based Decision Tree Method (CART 알고리즘 기반의 의사결정트리 기법을 이용한 규칙기반 전문가 시스템 구축 방법론)

  • Ko, Yun-Seok
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.6 no.6
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    • pp.849-854
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    • 2011
  • To minimize the spreading effect from the events of the system, a rule-based expert system is very effective. However, because the events of the large-scale system are diverse and the load condition is very variable, it is very difficult to construct the rule-based expert system. To solve this problem, this paper studies a methodology which constructs a rule-based expert system by applying a CART(Classification and Regression Trees) algorithm based decision tree determination method to event case examples.

Real-time Risk Measurement of Business Process Using Decision Tree (의사결정나무를 이용한 비즈니스 프로세스의 실시간 위험 수준 측정)

  • Kang, Bok-Young;Cho, Nam-Wook;Kim, Hoon-Tae;Kang, Suk-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2008
  • This paper proposes a methodology to measure the risk level in real-time for Business Activity Monitoring (BAM). A decision-tree methodology was employed to analyze the effect of process attributes on the result of the process execution. In the course of process execution, the level of risk is monitored in real-time, and an early warning can be issued depending on the change of the risk level. An algorithm for estimating the risk of ongoing processes in real-time was formulated. Comparison experiments were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. The proposed method detects the risks of business processes more precisely and even earlier than existing approaches.

Application of Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Approach for Accident Sequence Precursor Analysis: Case Study for Steam Generator Tube Rupture

  • Lee, Hansul;Kim, Taewan;Heo, Gyunyoung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.306-312
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this research is to introduce the technical standard of accident sequence precursor (ASP) analysis, and to propose a case study using the dynamic-probabilistic safety assessment (D-PSA) approach. The D-PSA approach can aid in the determination of high-risk/low-frequency accident scenarios from all potential scenarios. It can also be used to investigate the dynamic interaction between the physical state and the actions of the operator in an accident situation for risk quantification. This approach lends significant potential for safety analysis. Furthermore, the D-PSA approach provides a more realistic risk assessment by minimizing assumptions used in the conventional PSA model so-called the static-PSA model, which are relatively static in comparison. We performed risk quantification of a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) accident using the dynamic event tree (DET) methodology, which is the most widely used methodology in D-PSA. The risk quantification results of D-PSA and S-PSA are compared and evaluated. Suggestions and recommendations for using D-PSA are described in order to provide a technical perspective.

A Study of Data Mining Methodology for Effective Analysis of False Alarm Event on Mechanical Security System (기계경비시스템 오경보 이벤트 분석을 위한 데이터마이닝 기법 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Min;Choi, Kyong-Ho;Lee, Dong-Hwi
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2012
  • The objective of this study is to achieve the most optimal data mining for effective analysis of false alarm event on mechanical security system. To perform this, this study searches the cause of false alarm and suggests the data conversion and analysis methods to apply to several algorithm of WEKA, which is a data mining program, based on statistical data for the number of case on movement by false alarm, false alarm rate and cause of false alarm. Analysis methods are used to estimate false alarm and set more effective reaction for false alarm by applying several algorithm. To use the suitable data for effective analysis of false alarm event on mechanical security analysis this study uses Decision Tree, Naive Bayes, BayesNet Apriori and J48Tree algorithm, and applies the algorithm by deducting the highest value.

A Safety Assessment Methodology for a Digital Reactor Protection System

  • Lee Dong-Young;Choi Jong-Gyun;Lyou Joon
    • International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 2006
  • The main function of a reactor protection system is to maintain the reactor core integrity and the reactor coolant system pressure boundary. Generally, the reactor protection system adopts the 2-out-of-m redundant architecture to assure a reliable operation. This paper describes the safety assessment of a digital reactor protection system using the fault tree analysis technique. The fault tree technique can be expressed in terms of combinations of the basic event failures such as the random hardware failures, common cause failures, operator errors, and the fault tolerance mechanisms implemented in the reactor protection system. In this paper, a prediction method of the hardware failure rate is suggested for a digital reactor protection system, and applied to the reactor protection system being developed in Korea to identify design weak points from a safety point of view.

Calculation of Top Event Probability of Fault Tree using BDD (BDD를 이용한 사고수목 정상사상확률 계산)

  • Cho, Byeong Ho;Yum, Byeoungsoo;Kim, Sangahm
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.654-662
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    • 2016
  • As the number of gates and basic events in fault trees increases, it becomes difficult to calculate the exact probability of the top event. In order to overcome this difficulty the BDD methodology can be used to calculate the exact top event probability for small and medium size fault trees in short time. Fault trees are converted to BDD by using CUDD library functions and a failure path search algorithm is proposed to calculate the exact top event probability. The backward search algorithm is more efficient than the forward one in finding failure paths and in the calculation of the top event probability. This backward search algorithm can reduce searching time in the identification of disjoint failure paths from BDD and can be considered as an effective tool to find the cut sets and the minimal cut sets for the given fault trees.

A Study on the Influence Diagrams for the Application to Containment Performance Analysis (격납용기 성능해석을 위한 영향도에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Joon-Won;Jae, Moon-Sung;Chun, Moon-Hyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 1996
  • Influence diagram method is applied to containment performance analysis of Young-Gwang 3&4 in an effort to overcome some drawbacks of current containment performance analysis method. Event tee methodology has been adopted as a containment performance analysis method. There are, however, some drawbacks on event tree methodology. This study is to overcome three major drawbacks of the current containment performance analysis method : 1) Event tree cannot express dependency between events explicitly. 2) Accident Progression Event Tree (APET) cannot represent entire containment system. 3) It is difficult to consider decision making problem. To resolve these problems, influence diagrams, is proposed. In the present ok, the applicability of the influence diagrams has been demonstrated for YGN 3&4 containment performance analysis and accident management strategy assessments of this study are in good agreement with those of YGN 3&4 IPE. Sensitivity analysis has been peformed to identify relative important variables for each early containment failure, late containment and basemat melt-though. In addition, influence diagrams are used to assess two accident management strategies : 1) RCS depressurization, 2) cavity flooding. It is shown that influence diagrams can be applied to the containment performance analysis.

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Development of STI/AOT Optimization Methodology and an Application to the AFWPs with Adverse Effects

  • You, Young-Woo;Yang, Hui-Chang;Chung, Chang-Hyun;Moosung Jae
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.211-217
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    • 1997
  • Adverse effects caused by the surveillance test for the components of nuclear power plant involve plant transients, unnecessary wear, burden on licensee's time, and the radiation exposure to personnel along with the characteristics of each component. The optimization methodology of STI and AOT has been developed and applied to AFWPs of a reference plant. The approach proposed in this paper consist of the resole in minimal mean unavailability of the two-out-of-four system with adverse effects are analytically calculated for the example system. The surveillance testing strategy are given by the sequential test, the staggered test and the train staggered test which is a mined test scheme. In the system level, the sensitivity analyses for the STI and AOT, are performed for the measure of the system unavailability of the top event in the fault tree developed for the example system. This methodology may contribute to establishing the basis for the risk-based regulations.

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A Study of Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Assessment for Highway Safety Facilities (고속도로 교통안전시설물의 정성적 및 정량적 위험도분석 연구)

  • Ji, Dong-Han;O, Yeong-Tae;Choi, Hyun-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.99-109
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    • 2007
  • Risk elements of highway safety facilities are affected by complex environments. Thus, risk-based approach for traffic safety facilities is needed. For this, in this study, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methodology and procedure for highway safety facilities is proposed, which can be used as risk-based approach incorporating VE process. Also, for the quantitative risk assessment, event tree using EPDO(Equivalent Property Damage Only) with respect to frequency and magnitude of risk events is introduced. As a result, risk index of alternative 1(140cm) and 2(127(cm) which can be used as performance factor in VE approach are estimated.

Application plan for radiological exposure model using virtual reality-based radiological exercise system

  • Lee, Dewhey;Lee, Byung Il;Park, Younwon;Kim, Dohyung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.745-750
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    • 2018
  • New exercise technology such as the virtual reality (VR)-based exercise system is required to meet soaring demand for target participants in exercises and to alleviate the difficulties in personnel mobilization through an alternative approach to the exercise system. In a previous study, event tree methodologies were introduced in setting up an exercise scenario of a VR-based radiological exercise system. In the scenario, the locations at which major events occur are rephrased as nodes, routes as paths, and public response actions as protective actions or contents of an exercise at individual locations. In the study, a model for estimating effective doses to the participants is proposed to evaluate the exercise system, using the effective dose rates at particular times and locations derived from a computer program. The effective dose received by a student when she/he follows a successful route is about a half of the dose received when she/he does not follow the exercise guide directions. In addition, elapsed time to finish an exercise when following a successful route is less than one-third of the time spent to finish an exercise when following the guide's directions.