• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.5-16
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• 1988

This study is conducted to evaluate the explosion of tolune storage tank in the petrochemical plant by Fault Tree Analysis. The conclusions are as follows; 1) Fault Tree diagram and the required computer program for evaluation of explosion accident is developed. 2) The probability of the top event, explosion accident, is $1.5\;{\times}\;10^{-8}$ per year, so there is almost no possibility of explosion during the life cycle of tank. However, the probability of Gate 6 and Gate 7 is 8.8 per month, therefore, attention should be paid to them for accident prevention. 3) The number of minimal cut sets is 67 sets which are not calculated the probability of each set, because of the lack of computer capacity. All the minimal cut sets should be examined case by case. However, it is necessary to be paid attention to COM1, 126, 131, and COM4 in minimal cut sets, because the number of appearance is so high. 4) The number path sets is 70 sets which are not calculated the probability of each set, because of the lack of computer capacity. It is very useful to prepare safety checklist by using this minimal path sets. Also, the events which appear many times, 123, COM5, 139, 127 and 128, are very high in reliability.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.50 no.5
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• pp.627-638
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• 2018

This article describes an integrated Level 1-Level 2 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology to evaluate the radiological risk during postulated accident scenarios initiated during the decommissioning phase of a typical Mark I containment boiling water reactor. The fuel damage scenarios include those initiated while the reactor is permanently shut down, defueled, and the spent fuel is located into the spent fuel storage pool. This article focuses on the integrated Level 1-Level 2 PRA aspects of the analysis, from the beginning of the accident to the radiological release into the environment. The integrated Level 1-Level 2 decommissioning PRA uses event trees and fault trees that assess the accident progression until and after fuel damage. Detailed deterministic severe accident analyses are performed to support the fault tree/event tree development and to provide source term information for the various pieces of the Level 1-Level 2 model. Source terms information is collected from accidents occurring in both the reactor pressure vessel and the spent fuel pool, including simultaneous accidents. The Level 1-Level 2 PRA model evaluates the temporal and physical changes in plant conditions including consideration of major uncertainties. The goal of this article is to provide a methodology framework to perform a decommissioning Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), and an application to a real case study is provided to show the use of the methodology. Results will be derived from the integrated Level 1-Level 2 decommissioning PSA event tree in terms of fuel damage frequency, large release frequency, and large early release frequency, including uncertainties.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.473-480
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• 2002

In this paper, it was proposed that hazard analysis and risk assessment about railway signal systems using FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA(Event Tree Analysis) one of the reliability analysis methods executed and output value based on the hazard baseline of CENELEC and EC 61508 producted, and also the SIL(Safety Integrity Level)/THR(Tolerable Hazard Rate) about the system set. On the basis of this principle, more systematic standardizations are required to operate railway system and in the future, we hope that safety and reliability of signal equipment will be better improved.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.554-557
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• 2006

For various historical and technical reasons, the safety of dams has been controlled by an engineering standards-based approach, which has been developed over many years, initially for the design of new dams, but increasingly applied over the past few decades to assess the safety of existing dams. And some countries were asked for risk assessment on existing dam, which included structural, hydraulic safety of dam and social risk. Whereas other countries have developed and adapted as an additional tool to assist in decision-making for dam safety management. Dam risk analysis should need the reliability data of dam failures, the past constructed history and management records of existing dam. It is thought with risk analysis method of dams for structural safety management in domestic that suitable to use consider an event tree, fault tree and conditioning indexes method.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.56-63
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• 1995

Two methods of the numerical method of CPQRA(Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis) and the manual method of IAEA(International Atomic Energy Agency) were used to estimate the individual risk and societal risk around the chemical plant. Where, the CPQRA is introduced to verify the theoritical background of the manual of international atomic energy agency. The Gaussian plume model which has a weather stability class D with velocity of 5m/s was applied to calculate dispersion of hazard material. Also, 8-point method was employed to the effects of accidents for wind distribution. Furthermore, historical record, FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA(Event Tree Analysis) were used to estimate the probability or frequency of accidents. Eventually, the individual risk shows isorisk contour and the societal risk shows F-N curve around hazard facility, especially in chemical plants. Caulculated results, which both individual and societal risk, by using IAEA manual show simillar results to those of calculation by numerical method of CPQRA.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.97-111
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• 2007

In risk assessment, there are several methods such as Safety Review, Checklist, FMEA(Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), FTA(Fault Tree Analysis), ETA (Event Tree Analysis) etc, however, the level of accident is indentified by the probability of accident and severity resulting from accident which used widely in assessing accidents and disasters. In this paper, the risk assessment method to decide the level of risk will be introduced by using severity, frequency and detection according to accident theory.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1997.04a
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• pp.27-34
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• 1997

In this paper, systematic and comprehensive approaches are suggested for the application of quantitative PRA techniques especially for those risk events that cannot be easily evaluated quantitatively In addition, dominant risk events are identified based on their occurrence frequency assessed by both actual survey of construction site conditions and the statistical data related with the probable accidents. Practical FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA(Event Tree Analysis) models are used for the assessment of the identified risks. When the risk events are lack of statistical data, appropriate Bayesian models incorporating engineering judgement and test results are also introduced in this paper. Moreover, a fuzzy probability technique is used for the quantitative risk assessment of those risk components which are difficult to evaluate quantitatively.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.2084-2093
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• 2022

Probabilistic safety assessment is widely used to quantify the risks of nuclear power plants and their uncertainties. When the lognormal distribution describes the uncertainties of basic events, the uncertainty of the top event in a fault tree is approximated with the sum of lognormal random variables after minimal cutsets are obtained, and rare-event approximation is applied. As handling complicated analytic expressions for the sum of lognormal random variables is challenging, several approximation methods, especially Monte Carlo simulation, are widely used in practice for uncertainty analysis. In this study, a theoretical approach for analyzing the sum of lognormal random variables using an efficient numerical integration method is proposed for uncertainty analysis in probability safety assessments. The change of variables from correlated random variables with a complicated region of integration to independent random variables with a unit hypercube region of integration is applied to obtain an efficient numerical integration. The theoretical advantages of the proposed method over other approximation methods are shown through a benchmark problem. The proposed method provides an accurate and efficient approach to calculate the uncertainty of the top event in probabilistic safety assessment when the uncertainties of basic events are described with lognormal random variables.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.180-190
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• 1997

A new method in the fault tree analysis (FTA) for the reliability calculation is suggested. Two steps are necessary in traditional method in evaluation of the occurrence probability of top event in fault tree (FT). The first step is to find the minimal outsets, and the second one is to substitute the result into the poincare equation. In order to reduce the enormous computing time of this method, lots of rapid algorithms have been developed. Almost of all achievements were, however, based on the partial structural properties of FT. In this paper, the FT is transformed to a non-linear graph G which has the same minimal outsets of original n, and then the reliability is calculated using the domination theory. In this new method, the required number of equation terms are at most $2^n$ (n is node number of graph G), while $2^m$-1 (m is the number of minimal cutsets) calculation terms are required in the poincare equation in traditional method. Since m>>n in general. our new method reduces the calculation time significantly.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.661-668
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to analyze the chemical reaction pathway for explosion accident of mixed cargo. The analysis used a structural scenario using event-tree analysis. Structural scenarios were constructed by estimating various chemical reaction paths in the content of the mixed cargo accident recorded in the written verdict. The analytical method was applied to three kinds of analysis: chemical analysis based on chemical theory, quantitative analysis using chemical reaction formula, and probabilistic analysis through questionnaire. As a result of analysis, the main pathway of the accident occurred in three ways: the path of explosion due to the reaction of concentrated sulfuric acid with water, the path of explosion due to the reaction of metal and mixed acid, and the path of explosion by synthesizing with special substances. This result is similar to the path recorded in the validation, and it leads to thar the proposed path analysis method is valid. The proposed method is expected to be applicable to chemical reaction path estimation of various chemical accidents.