• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation

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Estimation of Pesticide Leaching Potential Using GUS, RF and AF Index in Cheju Citrus Orchard Soils (제주도 감귤원 토양에서 GUS, RF, AF 지수를 이용한 농약의 용탈잠재성 평가)

  • Oh, Sang-Sil;Moon, Doo-Khil;Chung, Jong-Bae;Hyun, Hae-Nam
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 2002
  • Contamination of groundwater by agrochemicals used in the regional-scale Is now a major environmental problem, and this is especially true for Cheju island where virtually all potable water is from groundwater. The objective of this study was to assess leaching potential of eight pesticides in soils of citrus orchards using groundwater ubiquity score (GUS), retardation factor (RF) and attenuation factor (AF). Considering GUS estimated in 30 citrus orchard soils, metribuzin and metolachlor were classified as leacher, alachlor in volcanic ash soils and linuron in non-volcanic soils were classified as leacher, but chlorothalonil and chlorpyrifos were classified as non-leacher. For RF values, metribuzin was classified to be mobile in soils of low organic carbon, metolachlor and alachlor were classified to be moderately immobile in most soils, but linuron, diuron, diniconazole, chlorothalonil and chlorpyrifos were all classified to be very immobile. For AF values, diniconazole, chlorothalonil, and chlorpyrifos were classified to be very unlikely leachable in all of the soils, metribuzin was classified to be likely leachable, and metolahclor, alachlor, linuron and diuron were classified to be leachable only in non-volcanic soils. Although there were some variations in the relative potential of teachability of pesticides estimated with the three different indices, the ranking was essentially determined on the base of the intrinsic properties of the chemicals and environmental properties. Among the eight pesticides, metribuzin, metolachlor, and alachlor, which have high water solubility and low $K_{oc}$ values, have a significant leaching potential especially in non-volcanic ash soils of low organic carbon. But diniconazole, chlorothalonil, and chlorpyrifos, which have low water solubility and high $K_{oc}$ values, were classified to be very immobile in all of the soils. Therefore, to lower the possibility of pesticide contamination of the groundwater in Cheju island, those pesticides which have high water solubility and low $K_{oc}$ values should be used with care in soils of low organic carbon including non-volcanic ash soils.

Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Economic Traits in Swine (종돈의 경제 형질의 유전모수 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, C.S.;Lee, I.J.;Cho, K.H.;Seo, K.S.;Lee, J.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.145-154
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    • 2004
  • This study was conducted to estimate genetic parameter of Duroc, Landrace and Yorkshire breeds based on the on-farm performance tested records of 57,316 pigs under the supervision of Korean Animal Improvement Association from 1992 to 1999. Genetic parameters were estimated with a multiple trait animal model by using DF - REML. The result obtained in this study was summarized as follow ; The estimated heritabilities of Duroc, Landrace and Yorkshire were 0.46${\sim}$0.65 for the average backfat thickness, 0.28${\sim}$0.31 for loin depth, 0.50~0.60 for percent lean, 0.45${\sim}$0.55 for the average daily gain, 0.38${\sim}$0.50 for age at 90kg, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of average backfat thickness with loin depth, percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90㎏ for the three breeds were -0.12${\sim}$-0.01, -0.81${\sim}$-0.76, 0.34${\sim}$0.46, and -0.41${\sim}$-0.33, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of loin depth with percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90kg were 0.12${\sim}$0.23, 0.03${\sim}$0.21, and -0.17${\sim}$-0.03, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of percent lean with average daily gain and age at 90kg were -0.37${\sim}$-0.26 and 0.26~0.35, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of average daily gain with age at 90kg was -0.97${\sim}$-0.95. The estimated genetic correlation coefficients of average backfat thickness with loin depth, percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90kg estimated for the three breeds were -0.17${\sim}$0.03, -0.79${\sim}$-0.69, 0.24${\sim}$0.45 and -0.41${\sim}$-0.19, respectively. The estimated genetic correlation coefficients of loin depth with percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90kg were 0.11~0.19, 0.23 and -0.30~-0.20, respectively. The estimated correlation coefficients of percent lean with average daily gain and age at 90kg were -0.36${\sim}$-0.13 and 0.10~0.34, respectively. The estimated genetic correlation coefficients of average daily gain with age at 90㎏ was -0.96${\sim}$-0.95.

Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Economic Traits and Profit by Milk Production of Holstein Dairy Cattle in Korea (국내 Holstein종 젖소의 경제형질과 착유량에 따른 소득의 유전모수 추정)

  • Noh, Jae-Kwang;Choi, Yun-Ho;Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Choi, Tae-Jeong;Na, Seung-Hwan;Cho, Ju-Hyun;Kim, Jin-Hyung;Shin, Ji-Sub;Do, Chang-Hee
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.275-282
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    • 2012
  • The data including milk yields, fat and protein percent for 628,395 heads collected by National Agricultural Cooperative Federation, 15 type traits and final score for 62,262 heads collected by Korea Animal Improvement Association, which were born in 1998 to 2004, and net profits calculated from milk price and raising expenses of individuals were used to estimate genetic parameters. The highest positive genetic correlation, 0.81, was shown between body depth (BD) and loin strength (SR). Genetic correlations between body depth (BD) and udder depth (UD), front teat placement (TP) and front teat length (TL) were -0.23, which were lowest among the linear type traits. Furthermore, medium level of negative genetic correlations were shown the milk yield with milk contents rate traits. Mostly low level of positive genetic correlations were shown between the milk traits and linear score traits except milk yield and stature. Most of the genetic correlations of between the linear score traits and net profit were low level of positive or negative genetic correlations. Among the genetic correlations, body depth (BD), angularity (DF) and rear attachment width (UW), and final score (FS) with net profit were high as 0.17, 0.17, 0.18 and 0.18, respectively. Finally all of the genetic correlations between net profit and milk traits were positive and higher than the linear traits with positive genetic correlations. The results of this study suggest that net profit has been related with the linear traits, such as body depth (BD), angularity (DF) and rear attachment width (UW) traits, and furthermore, milk traits including yield and contents rates influence positively and greatly on net profit.

Estimation of Microclimate by Site Types in Natural Deciduous Forest and Relation between Periodic Annual Increment of Diameter and the Microclimatic Estimates - A Case Study on the National Forest in Pyungchung, Kangwon Province - (천연 활엽수림의 입지 유형별 미기후 추정과 직경생장과의 관계 - 강원도 평창 지역 국유림을 중심으로 -)

  • 신만용;정상영;이돈구
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.44-54
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    • 2001
  • This study was conducted to estimate microclimate of natural deciduous forest in national forest of Pyungchang, Kangwon province and to investigate the effects of the microclimatic conditions on the periodic annual increment of diameter by site types. In this study, site was first classified by nine types considering both elevation (higher than 1,000 m, 700∼1,000 m, and lower than 700 m) and topographical conditions (ridge, slope and valley). For each of site types, diameter growth was measured by using increment borer and periodic annual increment of diameter was then analyzed. A topoclimatological technique, for estimating microclimatic conditions, which make use of empirical relationships between the topographical factor and the climatic normals in the study area was applied to produce monthly mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, relative humidity, precipitation and hours of sunshine. From these monthly estimtes, 17 weather variables such as warmth index, coldness index, index of aridity etc. which affect the diameter growth were computed for each of site types. The periodic annual increment of diameter was then correlated with and regressed on the 17 weather variables to examine effects of microclimatic conditions on the diameter growth by site types. From the correlation analysis, it was found that the diameter growth by site types was positively correlated with all of 17 weather variables except the warmth index. Especially, the conditions such as high relative humidity and large amount of sunshine hours provide favorable environment for the growth of diameter. On the other hand, it was also found that diameter growth was negatively iufluenced by warmth index. According to the regression analysis, the periodic annual increment of diameter could be well predicted by index of aridity and mean relative humidity for the growing season.

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A Case Study on Forecasting Inbound Calls of Motor Insurance Company Using Interactive Data Mining Technique (대화식 데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용한 자동차 보험사의 인입 콜량 예측 사례)

  • Baek, Woong;Kim, Nam-Gyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.99-120
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    • 2010
  • Due to the wide spread of customers' frequent access of non face-to-face services, there have been many attempts to improve customer satisfaction using huge amounts of data accumulated throughnon face-to-face channels. Usually, a call center is regarded to be one of the most representative non-faced channels. Therefore, it is important that a call center has enough agents to offer high level customer satisfaction. However, managing too many agents would increase the operational costs of a call center by increasing labor costs. Therefore, predicting and calculating the appropriate size of human resources of a call center is one of the most critical success factors of call center management. For this reason, most call centers are currently establishing a department of WFM(Work Force Management) to estimate the appropriate number of agents and to direct much effort to predict the volume of inbound calls. In real world applications, inbound call prediction is usually performed based on the intuition and experience of a domain expert. In other words, a domain expert usually predicts the volume of calls by calculating the average call of some periods and adjusting the average according tohis/her subjective estimation. However, this kind of approach has radical limitations in that the result of prediction might be strongly affected by the expert's personal experience and competence. It is often the case that a domain expert may predict inbound calls quite differently from anotherif the two experts have mutually different opinions on selecting influential variables and priorities among the variables. Moreover, it is almost impossible to logically clarify the process of expert's subjective prediction. Currently, to overcome the limitations of subjective call prediction, most call centers are adopting a WFMS(Workforce Management System) package in which expert's best practices are systemized. With WFMS, a user can predict the volume of calls by calculating the average call of each day of the week, excluding some eventful days. However, WFMS costs too much capital during the early stage of system establishment. Moreover, it is hard to reflect new information ontothe system when some factors affecting the amount of calls have been changed. In this paper, we attempt to devise a new model for predicting inbound calls that is not only based on theoretical background but also easily applicable to real world applications. Our model was mainly developed by the interactive decision tree technique, one of the most popular techniques in data mining. Therefore, we expect that our model can predict inbound calls automatically based on historical data, and it can utilize expert's domain knowledge during the process of tree construction. To analyze the accuracy of our model, we performed intensive experiments on a real case of one of the largest car insurance companies in Korea. In the case study, the prediction accuracy of the devised two models and traditional WFMS are analyzed with respect to the various error rates allowable. The experiments reveal that our data mining-based two models outperform WFMS in terms of predicting the amount of accident calls and fault calls in most experimental situations examined.

Analyzing Mutual Relationships Between Nectar Plants and Butterflies for Landscape Design - Focusing on World Cup Park, Seoul - (나비와 흡밀식물과의 관계 분석을 통한 조경설계에의 활용방안 연구 - 서울 월드컵공원을 대상으로 -)

  • Kim, Ji-Seok;Kang, Hyun-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, in order to select specialist butterfly species that inhabit Haneul and Noeul Parks, previously landfill areas, we verified the reciprocal relationships between nectar plants and butterflies. While we will design the butterfly habitats, this paper will provide the foundation data for selecting the plants. The completed survey indicated that there were a total of 5 families, 23 species and 1,129 individuals. Butterflies of the main action were feeding on nectar, and such behavior was 36% of the total actions. Therefore, these parks play an important role in butterflies feeding on nectar. The correlation between butterflies and the nectar plants' color was not significant; Therefore, it is not necessary to consider flower color when choosing plants to attract the butterflies. In addition, butterflies prefer naturalized plants for feeding on nectar. Thus, when creating butterfly habitats, there is no use in attracting the butterflies by classifying the naturalized plants and native plants. However, if some areas that are need to plant native plants such as Inkigofera pseudo-tinctoria, Lespedeza bicolor, Aster koraiensis make use it, there could be taken an advantage to attract the butterflies. According to the algebraic curve model of curve estimation regression analysis, we were able to classify the generalist species and specialist species by regression analysis. As a result, Colias erate, Artogeia rapae and Parnara guttata were classified as generalist species, where as Rapala caerulea, Pieris melete, Zizera maha and Celastrina argiolus were classified as specialist species. Rapala caerulea prefers hills and forest for its habitat; therefore, it is clearly distinct from Pieris melete, Zizera maha and Celastrina argiolus which prefer grassland for habitats. These results show that Rapala caerulea is high conservation value in a landfill area where is developing ecological succession from grasslands to wood lands. In conclusion, these research are able to contribute to select the target species and suitable species that consider a singularity between butterflies and nectar plants, when we are creating the butterfly habitats, moreover these research will contribute to maintain a stable habitats.

A Study on Measuring the Environmental Value of Gyeongnam Arboretum Using the CVM (가상가치측정법(CVM)을 이용한 경남수목원의 환경가치추정 연구)

  • Kang, Kee-Rae;Ha, Sung-Gyone;Lee, Kee-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.46-55
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    • 2011
  • The importance of forests and plants are appreciated by all of us, but it is often overlooked because we are surrounded by it. The arboretum is one of facilities which provide users with education on the environment, knowledge about plants, and recreation, playing a role as a nature school by exhibiting and collecting plants of various ecosystems. Anyone can enjoy fresh air, a pleasant environment, and knowledge about a wide variety of plants on the condition that they aactually visit it and pay the entrance fee. However, it has not been measured whether the expense which users pay to enjoy an arboretum is a true value of arboretums. The environment that arboretums offer is extra-market goods, or public goods. A variety of ideas and methods to measure the value of public goods have been researched among economists, statisticians, and mathematicians. The Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) is most widely used a s an assessment method on environment goods and adopted as an estimation method for compensation for restoration of the environment by the American Supreme Court. The purpose of this study is to suggest a current monetary value correspondingent to the value of arboretums by applying the CVM. The survey suggested that when an arboretum provides a high educational value and when the respondents have a higher income, it is more likely that they would be willing to pay for entrance into the arboretum. The quantified value in monetary terms for the environmental value of Gyeongnam Arboretum is WTP mean \15,648; WTP median \13,648; and WTP truncated \15,449 per visitor. In annual terms, the amounts are calculated at WTP mean \8,408,265,024; WTP median \7,333,589,024; and WTP truncated \8,301,334,762. These quantified amounts can be thought to represent the value of conservation of arboretums and awaken users to the precious value of nature. Also, they are helpful to let the general public have proper knowledge about and recognize the value of arboretums and forests.

An Analysis of Test Trends for Landscape Structure Construction and Management in Engineer Landscape Architecture Examination (조경기사 필기시험 중 조경시공구조 및 관리학 분야의 출제경향 분석)

  • Jung, Yong-Jo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.76-83
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze people who applied for and passed engineer landscape architecture examination that had been conducted from 2007 to 2016, the test frequency and trends by the question types in the landscape structure construction and management area, and the test tendencies and features by question types, and thereby to find the test trends for landscape structure construction and management in engineer landscape architecture examination. the analysis results are presented as follows: The people who applied for and passed engineer landscape architecture examinations that had been conducted from 2007 to 2016 were analyzed. as a result, the numbers of applicants and those who passed the examination have been on the decrease from 2011 and from 2012, respectively. the 10-year average rate of successful applicants for engineer landscape architecture examination was 11.2%. The test frequency and trends by the question types in the landscape structure construction area, and the test tendencies and features were analyzed. as a result, based on the key words in the seven categories (construction plan & process management, landscape materials, landscape planting foundation, work classification based construction, landscape estimation, basic structural mechanics, and survey), the questions about work classification based construction accounted for the largest, or 25.2%, and the questions about landscape planting foundation accounted for 3.3%. therefore, landscape planting foundation had lower test frequency and was less important than other categories. The test frequency and trends by the question types in the landscape management area, and the test tendencies and features were analyzed. as a result, based on the key words in the nine categories (operation and use & maintenance, pruning management, fertilization management, weed management, irrigation and drainage management, wintering management, pest management, and lawn management, and landscape facility management), the questions about operation and use & maintenance accounted for the largest, or 37.2%, and the numbers of the questions about fertilization management and irrigation & drainage management and of the questions about waterscape facility of landscape facility management have been on the increase from 2011 and from 2015, respectively. According to the analysis on the test tendencies for landscape structure construction and management areas in the examination there have been questions in a wide range and variety of categories. in terms of the landscape structure construction area, the frequency of questions in work classification based construction, landscape materials, and excellent quality in terms of the landscape management area, the frequency of questions in fertilization management, irrigation & drainage management, and waterscape facility of landscape facility management tends to increase because of environmental factors like climate change.

Development of Trip Generation Type Models toward Traffic Zone Characteristics (Zone특성 분할을 통한 유형별 통행발생 모형개발)

  • Kim, Tae-Ho;Rho, Jeong-Hyun;Kim, Young-Il;Oh, Young-Taek
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.93-100
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    • 2010
  • Trip generation is the first step in the conventional four-step model and has great effects on overall demand forecasting, so accuracy really matters at this stage. A linear regression model is widely used as a current trip generation model for such plans as urban transportation and SOC facilities, assuming that the relationship between each socio-economic index and trip generation stays linear. But when rapid urban development or an urban planning structure has changed, socio-economic index data for trip estimation may be lacking to bring many errors in estimated trip. Hence, instead of assuming that a socio-economic index widely used for a general purpose, this study aims to develop a new trip generation model by type based on the market separation for the variables to reflect the characteristics of various zones. The study considered the various characteristics (land use, socio-economic) of zones to enhance the forecasting accuracy of a trip generation model, the first-step in forecasting transportation demands. For a market separation methodology to improve forecasting accuracy, data mining (CART) on the basis of trip generation was used along with a regression analysis. Findings of the study indicated as follows : First, the analysis of zone characteristics using the CART analysis showed that trip production was under the influence of socio-economic factors (men-women relative proportion, age group (22 to 29)), while trip attraction was affected by land use factors (the relative proportion of business facilities) and the socio-economic factor (the relative proportion of third industry workers). Second, model development by type showed as a result that trip generation coefficients revealed 0.977 to 0.987 (trip/person) for "production" 0.692 to 3.256 (trip/person) for "attraction", which brought the necessity for type classifications. Third, a measured verification was conducted, where "production" and "attraction" showed a higher suitability than the existing model. The trip generation model by type developed in this study, therefore, turned out to be superior to the existing one.

An Analysis on Consumers' Awareness of a Rural Specialties Exhibition Shop and the Design Development : Focusing on Rural Tourism Village (농촌 농특산품 전시판매시설 디자인 소비자 의식 분석 및 디자인 개발 - 농촌관광마을을 중심으로 -)

  • Jin, Hye-Ryeon;Seo, Ji-Ye;Jo, Lok-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.253-262
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    • 2014
  • This, an association research for design-improvement and model-development of exhibition shops at rural tourism communities, is to secure objective data by analyzing customers' awareness-tendency of and demand for agricultural-specialty exhibition shops. Survey-questions for finding out consumers' awareness-tendency and demand were determined through brainstorming of a professional council, 30 rural communities of which visit-rate by consumers is considerably high were selected for the recruit of 200 consumers. For investigation and analysis, survey and in-depth interview were carried out at the scene with the application of frequency analysis and summarization of their opinions, which revealed that they have a strong will to visit the rural tourism communities for the purchase of agricultural specialties along with the experience of learning-program and on-the-scene direct dealing and that their viewpoint on the direct dealing at the scene was very positive. Also it was confirmed hat their satisfaction with the purchase of agricultural specialties by on-the-scene direct dealing, their pleasure at the purchase, their satisfaction with services and their intention for re-purchase of them were very high while their satisfaction with the exhibition shops was very low. With on-the-scene survey, the consumers' opinions could be listened to in depth. Almost all of them said their satisfaction with the trip to those rural tourism communities was considerably high since they could go to those communities themselves to relieve the stress from their modern life, to experience healing and to see the goods on the scene. Their satisfaction also was attributed to the fact that they have enough trust in purchase along with feeling the warm-heartedness of rural residents. As to their awareness of exhibition shops, they showed a positive response to the on-the-scene direct dealing at rural communities while they, thinking that the space in those exhibition shops was not sufficiently wide, demanded for more systematic counters in more accessible and affordable exhibition shops so that they might be more satisfied with the exhibition shops. Their demand for the necessity of exhibition shops selling agricultural specialties was found to be over 80%, which indicates that the necessity is very high. As to the suitability of function, they have the opinion that the business at those shops had better be focused on sales since they have the understanding of information when they take a trip to the rural communities, while there was another opinion: since agricultural products are seasonal items they should be exhibited and sold at the same time. More than 90% of the respondents had a positive viewpoint on direct dealing of agricultural specialties on the scene, which showed that their response to it was very high. They preferred the permanent shops equipped with roll-around table-booths. In addition, it was revealed that they want systematic exhibition shops in rural communities because they frequent those communities for on-the-scene direct purchase. The preferred type and opinion resulting from estimation of consumers' demands have been reflected for development of practical designs. The structure of variable principles has been designed so that the types of display-case and table-booth might be created. The result of this study is a positive data as a design model which can be utilized at rural communities and will be commercialized for the verification of its validity.