• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimating Value

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A Network-Based Model for Estimating the Market Share of a High-Speed Rail System in the Korean NW-SE Corridor (네트워크 기반모델을 이용한 서울-부산간 고속철도 개통 후의 교통수단별 시장점유율 예측)

  • Gang-Len Chang
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 2003.02a
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    • pp.127-150
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    • 2003
  • This research presents a novel application of static traffic assignment methods, but with a variable time value, for estimating the market share of a high-speed rail (HSR) in the NW-SE corridor of Korea which is currently served by the airline (AR), conventional rail (CR), and highway (HWY) modes. The proposed model employs the time-space network structure to capture the interrelations among all competing transportation modes, and to reflect their supply- and demand-sides constraints as well as interactions through properly formulated link-node structures. The embedded cost function for each network link offers the flexibility for incorporating all associated factors, such as travel time and fare, in the model computation, and enables the use of a distribution rather than a constant to represent the time-value variation among all transportation mode users. To realistically capture the tripmakers' value-of-time (VOT) along the target area, a novel method for VOT calibration has been developed with aggregate demand information and key system performance data from the target area. Under the assumption that intercity tripmakers often have nearly "perfect" travel information, one can solve the market share of each mode after operations of HSR for each O-D pair under the time-dependent demand with state-of-the-art traffic assignment. Aside from estimating new market share, this paper also investigated the impacts of HSR on other existing transportation modes.

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Estimating quantiles of extreme wind speed using generalized extreme value distribution fitted based on the order statistics

  • Liu, Y.X.;Hong, H.P.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.469-482
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    • 2022
  • The generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is frequently used to fit the block maximum of environmental parameters such as the annual maximum wind speed. There are several methods for estimating the parameters of the GEV distribution, including the least-squares method (LSM). However, the application of the LSM with the expected order statistics has not been reported. This study fills this gap by proposing a fitting method based on the expected order statistics. The study also proposes a plotting position to approximate the expected order statistics; the proposed plotting position depends on the distribution shape parameter. The use of this approximation for distribution fitting is carried out. Simulation analysis results indicate that the developed fitting procedure based on the expected order statistics or its approximation for GEVD is effective for estimating the distribution parameters and quantiles. The values of the probability plotting correlation coefficient that may be used to test the distributional hypothesis are calculated and presented. The developed fitting method is applied to extreme thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm winds for several major cities in Canada. Also, the implication of using the GEVD and Gumbel distribution to model the extreme wind speed on the structural reliability is presented and elaborated.

Estimating Economic Value of Environmental Resource - Focussed on the Preservation Value of Bong-seo Mt. by Using the CVM in Cheonan City (환경자윈의 경제적 가치평가에 관한 연구 - 천안시 봉서산의 보존가치 추정을 중심으로 -)

  • 이지은;허승욱
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.39-53
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    • 2003
  • This study attempted to estimating economic value of environmental resource by using the contingent valuation method(CVM), known as one of the tool measuring the economic benefits. To analysis the preservation value of Bong-seo Mt.. the surveys were conducted for citizens resident in Cheonan city. The sample sizes of the survey were 200 respectively. The survey method adopted face-to-face interview method as a mean of correcting useful response. This study considers models for evaluating the willingness to pay(WTP) based on payment card contingent valuation survey data and has attempted to measure goodness of fit for the data obtained from the survey design. It was estimated that the average WTP of Cheonan citizens for a maintenance and management of Bong-seo Mt. was 5,010 won per month and 60 ,118 won per year. When it is translated by total number of households in Cheonan city, there is the preservation value of approximately 8.8 billion won per year. On the other hand, total expense of development increased about 1.7 times over including application of the preservation value.

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Estimation on the Total Added Value of Household Production : The Extended Concept of Production from Non-SNA (확대된 생산개념를 적용한 가계생산의 부가가치산정)

  • 윤소영
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.42 no.7
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    • pp.131-143
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this paper is to prepare a satellite account of the household sector that is reflected in the current national income account by approving the economic activities of unpaid household labor as production activity and estimating its value. The study produced three results. First, as different methods of evaluation can be useful according to different study goals or the contents of related policies, it is unreasonable to present a single result for estimating unpaid household labor. This study, therefore, presented the values of housework based on 5 methods, ranging from 124 to 150 trillion won. Second, to input the added value of household production from the fixed capital (household durable goods), this study adopted the declining balance method used in the Korea National Statistical Office. As a result, the total consumption of fixed capital was estimated at approximately 18.8 trillion won. Third, the total added value of unpaid household labor was estimated to range from 143 to 169 trillion wens. The amount is a production value excluded from the SNA which needs to be formed as a separate household satellite account. The ratio of this total value added was 30-35.4 percents to the 1999 GDP in Korea(477 trillion wens).

The economic value of water in Korean manufacturing industry

  • Ku, Se-Ju;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.447-451
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    • 2010
  • It is quite important for manufacturing firms to stably secure water, because industrial water is used for a variety of purposes as one of the important inputs in the production process. Despite the significance of industrial water use and the increase of industrial water demand, relatively little has studied regarding the industrial water use in Korea. This paper employs the marginal productivity approach in order to estimate the economic value of water in Korean manufacturing industry, and we use the information of 53,912 factories surveyed in 2003. The result of the likelihood ratio test shows that Trans-log is an appropriate model for estimating the data of this study. In Trans-log function model, the industry-wide output elasticity of water is 0.0104, and the marginal value is KRW 1,156 per ton. The estimated values differ across the sectors and these values range from the high value of about KRW 13,760 per ton in the transportation equipment sector to low values of KRW 428 per ton in the precision instrument sector. The research provides useful information to help policy-makers in developing and implementing more appropriate policies regarding the management and distribution of water resources by estimating the value of water resources by sector. In addition, Korean government enables the drafting of future water pricing scenarios based on the estimated value information.

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A study of parameter estimation of stochastic volatility model

  • Tsukui, Makiko;Furuta, Katsuhisa
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1991.10b
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    • pp.1858-1863
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    • 1991
  • The theory of stock option pricing has, recently, attracted attention of many researchers interested not only in finance but also in statistics and control theory. In this field, the problem of estimating stock return volatility is, above all, of great importance in calculating actual stock option value. In this paper, we assume that the stock market is represented by the stochastic volatility model which is the same as that of Hull and White. Then, we propose an approximation function of option value. It is a type of Black-Sholes option formula in which the first and the second order moments of logarithmic stock value are modified in a special form from the original model. Finally, an algorithm of estimating the parameters of the stochastic volatility model is given, and parameters are estimated by using Nikkei 225 index option data.

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Stencil cutting process by Nd:YAG laser- (I) Estimation of kerf width by neural network (Nd:YAG 레이저를 이용한 스텐실 절단공정- (I) 신경회로망에 의한 절단폭 예측)

  • 신동식;이제훈;한유희;이영문
    • Laser Solutions
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.13-19
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    • 2000
  • The stencil is a thin stainless sheet in which a pattern is formed, which is placed on a surface of plate to reproduce the pattern of electric circuit. Conventionally the stencil has been produced by etching process. This process has many anti-environmental factors. In this study, Nd : YAG laser cutting process has been applied for stencil manufacturing. The study is focused on estimating kerf width of laser cut stencil by E.B.P.(Error Back-Propagation). This algorithm is good for estimating target value from input value. In this paper, target value was kerf width, and input values were frequency, pulse width, cutting speed and laser power. E.B.P. after teaming input and target could estimate kerf width from some variables precisely.

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Analysis of Construction Cost Weight Standards to Calculate Appropriate Construction Costs (적정공사비 산정을 위한 공사비할증기준 분석)

  • Oh, Jae-Hoon;An, Bang-Yul
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.157-158
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    • 2020
  • In order to calculate construction costs properly, it is necessary to add the weight that reflects different worksite conditions. The implementation of the weight, however, is difficult because it is impossible to determine whether wight should be added in basic work or whether weight values are overlapped. Special worksite conditions further complicate the matter. Furthermore, overlapping implementation of weight values result in overestimation of construction costs. The current study clearly analyzed the weight value items in the current construction cost calculation standards, and analyzed the weight value items included under the basic productivity category to propose an improvement of weight standards. Basically, the estimating standards provide 140 weight value items, with different levels of weight given to each item. Among 1,333 items in the estimating standards, 140 include weight values. Some items have two types of weight values.

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Problems in methodology for estimating cost of milk production and its improvement (우유생산비 조사 및 계산상의 문제점과 합리화방안 연구)

  • Chun, Ryong;Seo, Seong-Won;Park, Jong-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.227-242
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    • 2012
  • Accurate estimation of milk production cost is very important for dairy farmers in establishing strategies for business management (e.g. planning a program for milk production, deciding the size of business and investment, determining the milk price for sale). Since the estimated cost of milk production is used as an important index to determine the basal price of milk in Korea, there has been much interest and debate on the method used to estimate milk production cost among the stakeholder. This study was thus carried out to identify problems in the current methodology for estimating cost of milk production, and to find a better way to improve it. We propose several alternatives and better ways to improve the current method for estimating cost of milk production. Estimation of the income and cost per head should be based on the number of cattle converted to grown cows. Cost estimation per liter of milk should be made for both whole milk and 3.4% milk fat corrected milk. The value of purchased cows and raised replacement heifers should be the same as their market value. The productive life span of cows should be less 4 years, and the terminal or salvage value of cows needs to be 30 to 40% less than her initial value. When calculating depreciation of cows over the productive life span, however, the salvage value should be 0 or 1 Korean won. On calculating labor costs, the farm labor wage corresponding to the average wage of nonfarm industrial workers should be assumed. Beside of these, better estimation procedures for other items are also given. The proposed methods from this study should improve the accuracy of estimation of milk production cost and help to achieve consensus among the stakeholder.

Estimating the Conservation Value of Recreation Forests in Chungbuk through CVM (CVM을 활용한 충북지역 자연휴양림의 보전가치 추정연구)

  • Kang, Kee-Rae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.99 no.6
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    • pp.900-907
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    • 2010
  • Recreation forests are offer to personal development through recreation, education about nature, association with people, mind relaxation in forests. Most efficient method for measuring Recreational value of natural forest is economic approach, and Obtained by this approach, visitors to the recreational forests and other people will be able to explain recreational value. The value of the environment goods are not traded in the market, it's real value is difficult to measure. People have appreciated the value of the natural environment but it is not easy to answer the question how much monetary value a natural enjoy prosperity environment. This study is involved in giving the right recognition to the value of recreation and environment by estimating economically the value of the environment in which visitors stay, and presenting the appropriate price. The environmental value of a recreation forests is estimated through contingent valuation method (CVM). The annual recreation value per person of surveyed recreational forests is WTP with a mean between about \14,000 and 16,500. The recreation value of one recreational forest surveyed is annually between approximately 1.2 billion won and 1.4 billion won. The annual recreation value of Chungbuk Province recreation forests is presumed to be between about 15 billion won and 16.9 billion won.