• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimated rainfall

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Frequency Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Using 3 Parameter Probability Distributions (3변수 확률분포형에 의한 극치강우의 빈도분석)

  • Kim, Byeong-Jun;Maeng, Sung-Jin;Ryoo, Kyong-Sik;Lee, Soon-Hyuk
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.31-42
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    • 2004
  • This research seeks to derive the design rainfalls through the L-moment with the test of homogeneity, independence and outlier of data on annual maximum daily rainfall at 38 rainfall stations in Korea. To select the appropriate distribution of annual maximum daily rainfall data by the rainfall stations, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO), Generalized Pareto (GPA), Generalized Normal (GNO) and Pearson Type 3 (PT3) probability distributions were applied and their aptness were judged using an L-moment ratio diagram and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. Parameters of appropriate distributions were estimated from the observed and simulated annual maximum daily rainfall using Monte Carlo techniques. Design rainfalls were finally derived by GEV distribution, which was proved to be more appropriate than the other distributions.

On the Stationarity of Rainfall Quantiles: 1. Application and Evaluation of Conventional Methodologies (확률강우량의 정상성 판단: 1. 기존 방법의 적용 및 평가)

  • Jung, Sung-In;Yoo, Chul-Sang;Yoon, Yong-Nam
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.79-88
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    • 2007
  • This study evaluated the statistical stationarity of rainfall quantiles as well as the rainfall itself. The conventional methodologies like the Cox-Stuart test for trend and Dickey-Fuller test for a unit root used for testing the stationarity of a time series were applied and evaluated their application to the rainfall quantiles. As results, first, no obvious increasing or decreasing trend was found for the rainfall in Seoul, which was also found to be a stationary time series based on the Dickey-Fuller test. However, the Cox-Stuart test for the rainfall quantiles show some trends but not in consistent ways of increasing or decreasing. Also, the Dickey-Fuller test for a unit root shows that the rainfall quantiles are non-stationary. This result is mainly due to the difference between the rainfall data and rainfall quantiles. That is, the rainfall is a random variable without any trend or non-stationarity. On the other hand, the rainfall quantiles are estimated by considering all the data to result in high correlation between their consecutive estimates. That is, as the rainfall quantiles are estimated by adding a stationary rainfall data continuously, it becomes possible for their consecutive estimates to become highly correlated. Thus, it is natural for the rainfall quantiles to be decided non-stationary if considering the methodology used in this study.

Estimation and Assessment of Future Design Rainfall from Non-stationary Rainfall Frequency Analysis using Separation Method (호우분리기법을 적용한 비정상성 빈도해석의 미래확률강우량 산정 및 평가)

  • Son, Chan-Young;Lee, Bo-Ram;Choi, Ji-Hyeok;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.451-461
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    • 2015
  • This study aimed to estimate the future design rainfall through a non-stationary frequency analysis using the rainfall separation technique. First, we classified rainfall in the Korean Peninsula into local downpour and TC-induced rainfall through rainfall separation technique based on the path and size of a typhoon. Furthermore, we performed the analysis of regional rainfall characteristics and trends. In addition, we estimated the future design rainfall through a non-stationary frequency analysis using Gumbel distribution and carried out its quantitative comparison and evaluation. The results of the analysis suggest that the increase and decrease rate of rainfall in the Korean Peninsula were different and the increasing and decreasing tendencies were mutually contradictory at some points. In addition, a non-stationary frequency analysis was carried out by using the rainfall separation technique. The outcome of this analysis suggests that a relatively reasonable future design rainfall can be estimated. Comparing total rainfall with the future design rainfall, differences were found in the southern and eastern regions of the Korean peninsula. This means that climate change may have a different effect on the typhoon and local downpour. Thus, in the future, individual assessment of climate change impacts needs to be done through moisture separation. The results presented here are applicable in future hydraulic structures design, flood control measures related to climate change, and policy establishment.

Variation Characteristics of Annual Maximum Rainfall Series and Frequency-Based Rainfall in Korea (우리나라 연최대치 강우량 계열 및 확률강우량의 변화 특성)

  • Kim, Jae-Hvung
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.43-56
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    • 2002
  • About 12 rain gauge stations of Korea, annual maximum rainfall series of before and after 1980 whose durations are 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 72 hours respectively were composed and statistical characteristics of those time series were calculated and probability rainfall were estimated by L-moment frequency analysis method and compared each other in order to investigate the recent quantitative rainfall variations. And also, distribution curves of each statistical variations for each duration were constructed by using Kigging method to look into spacial rainfall variation aspects. As a result, We could confirm recent rainfall increase in the South Korea. And spatial increase pattern of standard deviation and frequency rainfall appeared analogously each other. 1n the cases of comparatively short rainfall duration, we could see relatively low increase or decrease tendency in Chungchong Province, Cholla-bukdo, Cholla-namdo eastern part, Kyongsang-namdo western part area. While, variations happened great1y in seaside district of east coast, southwest seashore, Inchon area etc. In the cases of longer durations relatively low increase was showed in southern seashore such as Yeosoo area and as distance recedes from this area, showed gradually augmented tendency. The aspect of mean looks similar tendency of above except that the variation rate of almost seaside district are big in the case of shorter durations. In addition, rainfall increases of short durations which became the center of hydrologist and meteorologist are unconfirmed in this study.

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Considerations on the Specific Yield Estimation Using the Relationship between Rainfall and Groundwater Level Variations (강우 대비 지하수위 변동량을 이용한 비산출율 추정 기법의 적용성 고찰)

  • Kim, Gyoo-Bum;Choi, Doo-Houng;Jeong, Jae-Hoon
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2010
  • In case of groundwater recharge estimation using water table fluctuation method, specific yield affects the accuracy and confidence level of recharge rate. Nevertheless, there have been few studies on the method for the accurate estimation of specific yield in Korea. Specific yield estimated from the relationship between rainfall and groundwater levels is reasonable compared to the other methods. However, lots of factors such as artificial pumping, evapotranspiration by the plants, and a sudden increase in water levels by a heavy rainfall can affect the pattern of groundwater levels' fluctuation and make an over-estimated or under-estimated specific yield. This study obtained a reasonable specific yield by using a daily or 12 hourly average of rainfall and groundwater levels measured in a dry season.

Estimation of the Unit Load by the Outflow Characteristics of Non-Point Source Pollution in the Upstream Watershed of So-yang Lake (소양호 상류유역의 비점오염원 유출특성에 의한 원단위 산정)

  • Choi, Han-Kuy;Park, Soo-Jin;Kim, Jin-Soo
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.25 no.B
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2005
  • From 2000 to 2004, the research was carried out at Naerin-cheon and Inbook-cheon, the upper streams of Soyang Lake, to study the relationship between precipitation and eutrophication-causing water pollutants, BOD, T-N and T-P. During the five years, the amount of flowing water was measured, and the water quantity was examined under different precipitation levels. From the observation, outflow patterns of the water pollutants and changes in the water quality factors at the time of rainfall were clarified. In addition, estimation of the unit load was made for each stream; for Naerin-cheon at the time of rainfall, we estimated BOD to be $1,112kg/km^2/year$, T-N to be $2,077kg/km^2/year$, and T-P to be $223kg/km^2/year$; for Inbook-cheon at the time of rainfall, we estimated BOD to be $1,229kg/km^2/year$, T-N to be $1,565kg/km^2/year$, and T-P to be $255kg/km^2/year$. For the time of no rainfall different estimation was made; for Naerin-cheon, we estimated BOD to be $2,403g/km^2/day$, T-N to be $5,004g/km^2/day$, and T-P to be $53g/km^2/day$; and for Inbook-cheon, we estimated BOD to be $1,550g/km^2/day$, T-N to be $2,283g/km^2/day$, and T-P to be $42g/km^2/day$.

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Estimation of Runoff Curve Number for Agricultural Reservoir Watershed Using Hydrologic Monitoring and Water Balance Method (수문모니터링과 물수지법을 이용한 농업용 저수지 유역 유출곡선번호 추정)

  • Yoon, Kwang-Sik;Kim, Young-Joo;Yoon, Suk-Gun;Jung, Jae-Woon;Han, Kuk-Heon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2005
  • The rainfall-runoff potential of Jangseong reservoir watershed was studied based on SCS (Soil Conservation Service, which is now the NRCS, Natural Resources Conservation Service, USDA) runoff curve number (CN) technique. Precipitation and reservoir operation data had been collected. The rainfall-runoff pairs from the watershed for ten years was estimated using reservoir water balance analysis using reservoir operation records. The maximum retention, S, for each storm event from rainfall-runoff pair was estimated for selected storm events. The estimated S values were arranged in descending order, then its probability distribution was determined as log-normal distribution, and associated CNs were found about probability levels of Pr=0.1, 0.5, and 0.9, respectively. A subwatershed that has the similar portions of land use categories to the whole watershed of Jangseong reservoir was selected and hydrologic monitoring was conducted. CNs for subwatershed were determined using observed data. CNs determined from observed rainfall-runoff data and reservoir water balance analysis were compared to the suggested CNs by the method of SCS-NEH4. The $CN_{II}$ measured and estimated from water balance analysis in this study were 78.0 and 78.1, respectively. However, the $CN_{II}$, which was determined based on hydrologic soil group, land use, was 67.2 indicating that actual runoff potential of Jangseong reservoir watershed is higher than that evaluated by SCS-NEH4 method. The results showed that watershed runoff potential for large scale agricultural reservoirs needs to be examined for efficient management of water resources and flood prevention.

Variation Characteristics of Hydraulic Gradient and Major Flow Direction in the Landfill Soils (매립지 토양층의 수리경사와 주 흐름 방향의 변동특성)

  • Kim, Tae-Yeong;Kang, Dong-Hwan;Kim, Sung-Soo;Kwon, Byung-Hyuk
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.315-323
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    • 2009
  • Hydraulic gradient of the landfill soils is estimated by Devlin (2003) method, and its variation characteristics from rainfall and permeability of the aquifer material are analyzed. The study site of 18 m $\times$ 12 m is located in front of the Environment Research Center at the Pukyong National University, and core logging, slug/bail test and groundwater monitoring was performed. The sluglbail tests were performed in 9 wells (except BH9 well), and drawdown data with elapsed time for bail tests were analyzed using Bouwer-Rice and Hvorslev methods. The average hydraulic conductivity estimated in each of the test wells was ranged $1.991{\times}10^{-7}{\sim}4.714{\times}10^{-6}m/sec$, and the average hydraulic conductivity in the study site was estimated $2.376{\times}10^{-6}m/sec$ for arithmetic average, $1.655{\times}10^{-6}m/sec$ for geometric average and $9.366{\times}10^{-7}m/sec$ for harmonic average. The permeability of landfill soils was higher at the east side of the study site than at the west side. Groundwater level in 10 wells was monitored 44 times from October 2 to November 7, 2007. The groundwater level was ranged 1.187$\sim$1.610 m, and the average groundwater level range in each of the well showed 1.256$\sim$1.407 m. The groundwater level was higher at the east side than at the west side of the study site, and this distribution is identify to it of hydraulic conductivity. The hydraulie gradient and the major flow direction for 10 wells were estimated 0.0072$\sim$0.0093 and $81.7618{\sim}88.0836^{\circ}$, respectively. Also, the hydraulic gradient and the major flow direction for 9 wells were estimated 0.0102$\sim$0.0124 and $84.6822{\sim}89.1174^{\circ}$, respectively. The hydraulic gradient of the study site increased from rainfall (83.5 mm) on October 7, causing by that the groundwater level of the site with high permeability was higher. The hydraulic gradient estimated on and after October 16 was stable, due to almost no rainfall. Thus, it was confirmed that the variation of the hydraulic gradient in the landfill soils was controlled by the rainfall.

Use of Sediment Trap to Control Sediment from Alpine Fields (침사구를 이용한 고랭지 유사방지 대책)

  • Choi, Joong-Dae;Choi, Ye-Hwan;Sim, Hyeuk-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.571-574
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    • 2003
  • Three sediment traps were placed at the toe of sloping fields in the alpine belt of Korea and sediment removal efficiency was estimated. Soil texture of the site was sandy soil and 5 runoff and sediment events were observed during 2002. Sediment was largely affected by both the amount and intensity of rainfall. Especially, rainfall intensity seemed to have profound effect on sediment yield from sloping sandy fields. Sediment removal of the sediments ranged widely from 266 kg/ha to 16,974 kg/ha depending on tillage method, slope and slope length, and amount and intensity of rainfall. Sediment removal efficiency was estimated to be more than 98.8%. It was suggested that rational combination of sediment trap and drainage channel might well contribute to control sediment discharge from alpine sloping fields.

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Heavy Rainfall Prediction by the Physically Based Model (물리 모형을 토대로한 호우 예측)

  • Lee, Jae Hyoung;Sonu, Jung Ho;Ceon, Ir Kweon;Hwang, Man Ha
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.1129-1136
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    • 1994
  • A point heavy rainfall process is physically modeled. It uses meteorological variables at the ground level as its inputs. The components of the model are parameterized based on well established observations and the previous studies of cloud physics. Particular emphasis is placed on the efficiency of accretion. So we adopt the modified skew-symmetric model for hydrometeor size distribution function that is suitable for the heavy rain cloud. The dominant parameters included in the model are estimated by the optimization technique. The rainfall intensity is predicted by the model with the medium values of estimated parameters.

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