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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.6.451

Estimation and Assessment of Future Design Rainfall from Non-stationary Rainfall Frequency Analysis using Separation Method  

Son, Chan-Young (Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Seoul)
Lee, Bo-Ram (Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Seoul)
Choi, Ji-Hyeok (Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Seoul)
Moon, Young-Il (Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Seoul)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.48, no.6, 2015 , pp. 451-461 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study aimed to estimate the future design rainfall through a non-stationary frequency analysis using the rainfall separation technique. First, we classified rainfall in the Korean Peninsula into local downpour and TC-induced rainfall through rainfall separation technique based on the path and size of a typhoon. Furthermore, we performed the analysis of regional rainfall characteristics and trends. In addition, we estimated the future design rainfall through a non-stationary frequency analysis using Gumbel distribution and carried out its quantitative comparison and evaluation. The results of the analysis suggest that the increase and decrease rate of rainfall in the Korean Peninsula were different and the increasing and decreasing tendencies were mutually contradictory at some points. In addition, a non-stationary frequency analysis was carried out by using the rainfall separation technique. The outcome of this analysis suggests that a relatively reasonable future design rainfall can be estimated. Comparing total rainfall with the future design rainfall, differences were found in the southern and eastern regions of the Korean peninsula. This means that climate change may have a different effect on the typhoon and local downpour. Thus, in the future, individual assessment of climate change impacts needs to be done through moisture separation. The results presented here are applicable in future hydraulic structures design, flood control measures related to climate change, and policy establishment.
Keywords
separation method of precipitation; non-stationary rainfall frequency analysis; tropical cyclone induced rainfall; local downpour;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 11  (Citation Analysis)
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