Browse > Article

On the Stationarity of Rainfall Quantiles: 1. Application and Evaluation of Conventional Methodologies  

Jung, Sung-In (동부엔지니어링 수자원부)
Yoo, Chul-Sang (고려대학교 건축.사회환경공학과)
Yoon, Yong-Nam (㈜삼안)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation / v.7, no.5, 2007 , pp. 79-88 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study evaluated the statistical stationarity of rainfall quantiles as well as the rainfall itself. The conventional methodologies like the Cox-Stuart test for trend and Dickey-Fuller test for a unit root used for testing the stationarity of a time series were applied and evaluated their application to the rainfall quantiles. As results, first, no obvious increasing or decreasing trend was found for the rainfall in Seoul, which was also found to be a stationary time series based on the Dickey-Fuller test. However, the Cox-Stuart test for the rainfall quantiles show some trends but not in consistent ways of increasing or decreasing. Also, the Dickey-Fuller test for a unit root shows that the rainfall quantiles are non-stationary. This result is mainly due to the difference between the rainfall data and rainfall quantiles. That is, the rainfall is a random variable without any trend or non-stationarity. On the other hand, the rainfall quantiles are estimated by considering all the data to result in high correlation between their consecutive estimates. That is, as the rainfall quantiles are estimated by adding a stationary rainfall data continuously, it becomes possible for their consecutive estimates to become highly correlated. Thus, it is natural for the rainfall quantiles to be decided non-stationary if considering the methodology used in this study.
Keywords
Stationarity; Rainfall; Rainfall Quantiles; Cox-Stuart; Dickey-Fuller;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 이상열 (2001) 시계열 분석의 원리. 자유아카데미
2 차은정 (2001) 집중호우의 원인은 지구온난화 때문 인가? 한국 수자원학회지, 한국수자원학회.
3 차은정, 최영진 (2000) 한반도 여름철 집중호우의 시간,공간 변동 특성. 한국 수자원학회지, 한국수자원학회, 제33권, 제4호, pp. 47-56
4 Jhones, P.D. and Wigley, T.M.L. (1990) Global warming trends. Scientitic American, Vol. 263, No.2, pp. 84-91
5 McCabe, G.J. and Hay, L.E. (1995) Hydrologic effect of hypothetical climate change in the East river basin, Colorado, USA. Hydrological Science Journal, Vol. 40, pp. 303-318   DOI   ScienceOn
6 Ng, H.Y.F. and Marsalek, J. (1992) Sensitivity of streamflow simulation to changes in climate inputs. Nordic Hydrology, Vol. 23, pp. 257-272   DOI
7 Sheskin, D.J. (1997) Handbook of psrsmetric and nonpsrsmetric statisticsl procedures. CRC Press, Boca Raton, F1
8 Thomas, E.C.II. (2001) Climate-biased stormfrequency estimation. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 6, pp. 275-283   DOI   ScienceOn
9 Trenberth, K.E. and Guillemot, C.J. (1998) Evaluation of the atmospheric moisture and hydrological cycle III the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 14, No.3, pp. 213-231   DOI
10 Kishor, S.T. (2001) Probability and statistics with reliability, Queueing, and computer science applications. Wiley Interscienc
11 Richard, WK, Marc, B.P., and Philippe N. (2002) Statistics of extremes in hydrology. Advances In Water Resources, Vol. 25, pp. 1287-1304   DOI   ScienceOn
12 안재현, 유철상, 윤용남 (2000) 확률강우량의 상승 및 감소와 관련하여 : 홍수량과 홍수위에 대한 영향 분석. 한국수자원학회 학술발표회 논문집(II), 한국수자원학회, pp. 1274-1279
13 차영준 (1993) SPSS/PC+를 이용한 비모수 통계학. 자유아카데미
14 안재현, 김태웅, 유철상, 윤용남 (2000) 자료기간 증가에 따른 확률강우량의 거동특성분석. 한국수자원학회논문집, 한국수자원학회, 제33권, 제5호, pp. 569-580
15 Ahn, J.H., Kim, T.W., Yoo, C., and Yoon, Y.N. (2001) On the variation of frequency-based rainfall amounts: A case study for evaluating recent extreme rainfalls in Korea. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 17, No.3 pp. 217-227
16 김명직, 장국현 (1998) 금융시계열 분석. 경문사
17 Lettenmaier, D.P. and Gan, T.Y. (1990) Hydrologic sensitivities of the SacromentoSan Joaquin river basin, California, to global warming. Water Resources Research, Vol. 26, No.1, pp. 69-86   DOI
18 Hosking, J.R.M. (1989) The theory of probability weighted moment. Research Report, RC 12210. IBM Research Division, T.J. Watson Research Center. Now York
19 서규우 (1998) 지구온난화에 따른 수문환경의 변화. 한국수자원학회지, 한국수자원학회, 제31권, 제4호, pp. 103-106   과학기술학회마을
20 Lettenmaier, D.P. and Sheer, D.P. (1991) Climate sensitivity of California water resources. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 117, No.1, pp. 108-125   DOI
21 제갈돈, 류지성 (1998) 간여 시계열 분석에서 분산의 비정상성(non-stationarity)과 Log 변형. 정책분석평가학회보, 제8권, 제2호, pp. 5-18
22 최명선 (2001) 단변량 시계열 분석. 세경사
23 Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, pp. 427-431   DOI   ScienceOn
24 Trenberth, K.E. (1999) Atmospheric moisture recycling: Role of advection and local evaporation. Journal of Climate, Vol. 12, No. 5, pp. 1368-1381   DOI   ScienceOn
25 Nash, L.L. and Gleick, P.H. (1991) Sensitivity of streamflow in the Colorado basin to climate changes. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 125, pp. 221-241   DOI   ScienceOn
26 McCabe, G.J. and Ayers, M.A. (1989) Hydrologic effect of climate change in the Delaware river basin. Water Resources Bulletin, Vol. 25, No. 6, pp. 1231-1241   DOI
27 Cox, D.R. and Stuart, A. (1955) Some quick sign tests for trend In location and dispersion. Biometrika, Vol. 42, pp. 80-95   DOI
28 건설교통부 (1988) 수자원관리기법개발 연구조사보고서. 제2권 한국 확률강우량도의 작성
29 이상복, 이동률, 허준행 (2000) 남한지역 강수량의 변동성 및 경향성 해석. 대한토목학회 논문집, 대한토목학회, 제20권, 제7호, pp. 103-106
30 권태영, 오성남, 박상욱 (1998) 한반도 여름 강우의 장기변동과 지역적 특성. 한국기상학회지, 한국기상학회, 제34권, 제1호, pp. 20-30
31 Rind, D., Goldberg, R, and Ruedy, R (1989) Change in climate variability in the 21st century. Climstic Change, Vol. 14, pp. 5-37   DOI
32 Nemec, J. and Schaake, J. (1982) Sensitivity of water resources systems to climate variation. Hydrological Science Journal, Vol. 27, No.3, pp. 327-343   DOI   ScienceOn
33 Wardlaw, RB., Hulme, M., and Stuck, A.Y. (1996) Modeling the impacts of climate change on water resources. Journal of Charted Institution of Water and Environmental Management(J.CIWEM), Vol. 10, pp. 355-364   DOI
34 Krishnaiah, P.R. and Sen, P.K. (1984) Handbook of statistics 4: Nonparametric methods. North-Holland, Elsevier
35 Mansell, M.G. (1997) The effect of climate change on rainfall trend and flooding risk in the west of Scotland. Nordic Hydrology, Vol. 28, pp. 37-50
36 Rao, A.R. and Hamed, KH. (2000) Flood frequency enslysis. CRC Press LLC
37 건설교통부 (2000) 수자원관리기법개발 연구조사보고서. 제1권 한국 확률강우량도의 작성
38 정종호, 윤용남 (2002) 수자원 설계 실무. 구미서관