• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimated rainfall

검색결과 873건 처리시간 0.043초

Scale-Invariance 기법을 이용한 IDF 곡선의 기후변화 영향 분석: RCP 8.5를 중심으로 (Analysis of the effect of climate change on IDF curves using scale-invariance technique: focus on RCP 8.5)

  • 최정현;이옥정;김상단
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제49권12호
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    • pp.995-1006
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    • 2016
  • IPCC 제5차 평가보고서에 따르면 극한강우의 빈도 및 강도가 증가할 가능성이 매우 높을 것으로 예측되고 있다. 실제로 극한강우에 따른 침수피해가 증가하고 있으며, 이에 따라 기후변화의 영향을 반영한 미래 확률강우량 추정이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화 RCP 8.5 시나리오로부터 도출된 미래 연 최대 일강수량 자료의 추세분석과 scale-invariance 기법을 이용하여 미래 확률강우량을 추정하였다. 먼저, 기상청 관할 60개 기상관측소의 관측 강우자료를 이용하여 관측소별로 스케일 특성을 검토한 후, 현재기후 모의자료를 이용하여 scale-invariance 기법의 적용가능성을 검증하였다. 그 후, 미래 일 강수량 시계열을 scale-invariance 특성에 따라 유도된 IDF 곡선식에 적용하여 기후변화의 영향을 반영한 지속시간별 확률강우량을 추정하였다. 대부분의 지점에서 확률강우량이 증가할 것으로 예측되었으나, 일부 지역의 경우에는 감소할 가능성도 있음을 살펴볼 수 있다.

거대강우 시나리오를 이용한 거대홍수량 산정 (Estimation of Mega Flood Using Mega Rainfall Scenario)

  • 한대건;김덕환;김정욱;정재원;이종소;김형수
    • 한국습지학회지
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    • 제21권spc호
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    • pp.90-97
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    • 2019
  • 최근 연속적인 호우사상으로 인해 홍수가 발생하고 있으며, 이로 인한 재산 및 인명피해가 증가하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 연속적인 호우사상 발생 사례를 바탕으로 거대강우 시나리오와 거대홍수를 정의하였다. 경안천 유역의 100년 빈도 확률강우사상이 연속적으로 발생한다는 가정하에 거대강우 시나리오를 생성하였으며, 거대홍수량을 산정하기 위하여 SSARR(Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation)모형을 이용하였다. 또한, 보다 합리적인 유출해석을 수행하기 위하여 SCE_UA기법을 통해 매개변수를 추정하고, SSR(Sum of Squared of Residual)과 첨두유량 모의에 유리한 WSSR(Weighted Sum of Squared of Residual)의 목적함수를 이용하여 모형의 보정 및 검증을 수행하였다. 이를 통해 적합성 검토를 수행하였다. 그 결과, 경안천 유역의 100년 빈도 강우사상의 연속발생으로 인한 거대홍수량은 4,802㎥/s로 산정되었고, 경안천하천정비기본계획(2011)에서 산정한 100년 빈도 단일 강우사상에 의한 홍수량은 3,810㎥/s으로 산정되었다. 따라서 거대홍수량이 단일 호우사상에 의한 홍수량 보다 약 992㎥/s 만큼 증가하는 것으로 확인되었으며, 이는 향후 거대홍수를 고려할 경우, 경안천 유역의 치수방어대책 수립시 참고자료로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

면적평균강우량 산정을 통한 강우관측망 평가 및 추정오차 (Evaluation of Raingauge Network using Area Average Rainfall Estimation and the Estimation Error)

  • 이지호;전환돈
    • 한국습지학회지
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.103-112
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    • 2014
  • 면적평균강우량의 산정은 가용 수자원의 정확한 양을 파악하고 강우-유출해석에 필수적인 입력자료이기 때문에 매우 중요하다. 이와 같은 면적평균강우량의 정확한 산정을 위한 필수적인 조건은 강우관측망의 균일한 공간적 분포이다. 본 연구에서는 보다 향상된 유역 면적평균강우량 산정을 위한 강우관측망의 공간분포 평가방법론을 제시하고, 이를 한강 및 금강 유역에 적용하였다. 강우관측소의 공간적 분포 특성은 최근린 지수(nearest neighbor index)를 이용하여 정량화하였다. 유역별 강우관측소의 공간적 분포가 면적평균강우량 산정에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위하여 2013년의 강우사상에 대해 산술평균법, 티센가중법, 추정이론을 이용하여 면적평균강우량을 산정하고 각 경우에 대해 추정오차를 평가하였다. 그 결과 공간분포가 우수한 유역은 면적평균강우량의 추정오차가 상대적으로 작으며, 반대로 공간분포가 왜곡된 유역의 경우는 상대적으로 추정오차가 큼을 확인하였다.

기후변화에 따른 강수 특성 변화 분석을 위한 대규모 기후 앙상블 모의자료 적용 (Application of the Large-scale Climate Ensemble Simulations to Analysis on Changes of Precipitation Trend Caused by Global Climate Change)

  • 김영규;손민우
    • 대기
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2022
  • Recently, Japan's Meteorological Research Institute presented the d4PDF database (Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change, d4PDF) through large-scale climate ensemble simulations to overcome uncertainty arising from variability when the general circulation model represents extreme-scale precipitation. In this study, the change of precipitation characteristics between the historical and future climate conditions in the Yongdam-dam basin was analyzed using the d4PDF data. The result shows that annual mean precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation increased by more than 10% in future climate conditions. This study also performed an analysis on the change of the return period rainfall. The annual maximum daily rainfall was extracted for each climatic condition, and the rainfall with each return period was estimated. In this process, we represent the extreme-scale rainfall corresponding to a very long return period without any statistical model and method as the d4PDF provides rainfall data during 3,000 years for historical climate conditions and during 5,400 years for future climate conditions. The rainfall with a 50-year return period under future climate conditions exceeded the rainfall with a 100-year return period under historical climate conditions. Consequently, in future climate conditions, the magnitude of rainfall increased at the same return period and, the return period decreased at the same magnitude of rainfall. In this study, by using the d4PDF data, it was possible to analyze the change in extreme magnitude of rainfall.

WQV 기반 비점오염저감시설의 강우유출수 처리비 경험공식의 개선 (The Improvement on the Empirical Formula of Stormwater Captured Ratio for Water Quality Volume Based Non-Point Pollutants Water Quality Control Basins)

  • 최대규;박무종;박배경;김상단
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제30권1호
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2014
  • According to the technical guideline of water pollutant load management, the rainfall captured ratio which can be estimated by the empirical formula is an important element to estimate reduction loads of non-point pollutants water quality control basin. In this study, the rainfall captured ratio is altered to stormwater captured ratio considering its meaning in the technical guideline of water pollutant load management, and the new empircal formula of stormwater captured ratio is suggested. In order to do this, we calculate stormwater captured ratio by using the hourly rainfall data of seven urban weather stations (Busan, Daegu, Daejeon, Gangreung, Seoul, Gwangju, and Jeju) for 43 years. The regression coefficients of the existed empirical formula cannot reflect the catchment properties at all, because they are fixed values regardless of regions. However the empirical formula of stormwater captured ratio has flexible regression coefficients by runoff coefficient(C), so it is allowed to consider the characteristics of runoff in catchment. It is expected that reduction loads of storage based water quality control basin can be more reasonably estimated than before.

동화지구 절계 수문량 재추정 (Reestimation of Hydrologic Design Data in Donghwa Area)

  • 권순국;이재형;정재성;전일권;김민환;이경도
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제46권6호
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 2004
  • The fundamental study of hydrologic redesign of Donghwa area located in a sccond tributary of Seomjin river was performed. The amounts of hydrologic design were estimated using the available cumulated hydrology data provided by Korea Agricultural and Rural Infrastructure Corporation (KARICO). The management status of The water resources in Donghwa area was also widely surveyed. The probability rainfalls, probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probability floods were estimated and subsequently their changes analyzed. The amount of 200 year frequency rainfall with l day duration was 351.1 mm, 2.5 % increased from the original design value, and The PMP was 780.2 mm. The concentration time was reestimated as 2.5 hours from existing 2.4 hours. Soil Conservation Service(SCS) method was used to estimate effective rainfall- The runoff curve number was changed from 90 to 78, therefore the maximum potential retention was 71.6 mm, 154 % increased from the original value. The Hood estimates using SCS unit hydrograph showed 8 % increase from original value 623 $m^3$/s to 674 $m^3$/s and The probable maximum Hood was 1,637 $m^3$/s. Although the Row rate at the dam site was increased, the Hood risk at the downstream river was decreased by the Hood control of the Donghwa dam.

배수개선공법개발에 관한 연구(I) -각종 지하배수용 암거재료의 배수성능- (Drainage Performance of Various Subsurface Drain Materials-)

  • 김철회;이근후;유시조;서원명
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제21권3호
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    • pp.104-120
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    • 1979
  • I. Title of the Study Studies on the Development of Improved Subsurface Drainage Methods. -Drainage Performance of Various Subsurface Drain Materials- II. Object of the Study Studies were carried out to select the drain material having the highest performance of drainage; And to develop the water budget model which is necessary for the planning of the drainage project and the establishment of water management standards in the water-logged paddy field. III. Content and Scope of the Study 1. The experiment was carried out in the laboratory by using a sand tank model. The drainage performance of various drain materials was compared evaluated. 2. A water budget model was established. Various parameters necessary for the model were investigated by analyzing existing data and measured data from the experimental field. The adaptability of the model was evaluated by comparing the estimated values to the field data. IV. Results and Recommendations 1. A corrugated tube enveloped with gravel or mat showed the highest drainage performance among the eight materials submmitted for the experiment. 2. The drainage performance of the long cement tile(50 cm long) was higher than that of the short cement tile(25 cm long). 3. Rice bran was superior to gravel in its' drain performance. 4. No difference was shown between a grave envelope and a P.V.C. wool mat in their performance of drainage. Continues investigation is needed to clarify the envelope performance. 5. All the results described above were obtained from the laboratory tests. A field test is recommended to confirm the results obtained. 6. As a water balance model of a given soil profile, the soil moisture depletion D, could be represented as follows; $$D=\Sigma\limit_{t=1}^{n}(Et-R_{\ell}-I+W_d)..........(17)$$ 7. Among the various empirical formulae for potential evapotranspiration, Penman's formular was best fit to the data observed with the evaporation pans in Jinju area. High degree of positive correlation between Penman;s predicted data and observed data was confirmed. The regression equation was Y=1.4X-22.86, where Y represents evaporation rate from small pan, in mm/100 days, and X represents potential evapotranspiration rate estimated by Penman's formular. The coefficient of correlation was r=0.94.** 8. To estimate evapotranspiration in the field, the consumptive use coefficient, Kc, was introduced. Kc was defined by the function of the characteristics of the crop soil as follows; $Kc=Kco{\cdot}Ka+Ks..........(20)$ where, Kco, Ka ans Ks represents the crop coefficient, the soil moisture coefficient, and the correction coefficient, respectively. The value of Kco and Ka was obtained from the Fig.16 and the Fig.17, respectively. And, if $Kco{\cdot}Ka{\geq}1.0,$ then Ks=0, otherwise, Ks value was estimated by using the relation; $Ks=1-Kco{\cdot}Ka$. 9. Into type formular, $r_t=\frac{R_{24}}{24}(\frac{b}{\sqrt{t}+a})$, was the best fit one to estimate the probable rainfall intensity when daily rainfall and rainfall durations are given as input data, The coefficient a and b are shown on the Table 16. 10. Japanese type formular, $I_t=\frac{b}{\sqrt{t}+a}$, was the best fit one to estimate the probable rainfall intensity when the rainfall duration only was given. The coefficient a and b are shown on the Table 17. 11. Effective rainfall, Re, was estimated by using following relationships; Re=D, if $R-D\geq}0$, otherwise, Re=R. 12. The difference of rainfall amount from soil moisture depletion was considered as the amount of drainage required. In this case, when Wd=O, Equation 24 was used, otherwise two to three days of lag time was considered and correction was made by use of storage coefficient. 13. To evaluate the model, measured data and estimated data was compared, and relative error was computed. 5.5 percent The relative error was 5.5 percent. 14. By considering the water budget in Jinju area, it was shown that the evaporation amount was greater than the rainfall during period of October to March in next year. This was the behind reasonning that the improvement of surface drainage system is needed in Jinju area.

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Estimation of R factor using hourly rainfall data

  • Risal, Avay;Kum, Donghyuk;Han, Jeongho;Lee, Dongjun;Lim, Kyoungjae
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.260-260
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    • 2016
  • Soil erosion is a very serious problem from agricultural as well as environmental point of view. Various computer models have been used to estimate soil erosion and assess erosion control practice. Universal Soil loss equation (USLE) is a popular model which has been used in many countries around the world. Erosivity (USLE R-factor) is one of the USLE input parameters to reflect impacts of rainfall in computing soil loss. Value of R factor depends upon Energy (E) and maximum rainfall intensity of specific period ($I30_{max}$) of that rainfall event and thus can be calculated using higher temporal resolution rainfall data such as 10 minute interval. But 10 minute interval rainfall data may not be available in every part of the world. In that case we can use hourly rainfall data to compute this R factor. Maximum 60 minute rainfall ($I60_{max}$) can be used instead of maximum 30 minute rainfall ($I30_{max}$) as suggested by USLE manual. But the value of Average annual R factor computed using hourly rainfall data needs some correction factor so that it can be used in USLE model. The objective of our study are to derive relation between averages annual R factor values using 10 minute interval and hourly rainfall data and to determine correction coefficient for R factor using hourly Rainfall data.75 weather stations of Korea were selected for our study. Ten minute interval rainfall data for these stations were obtained from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and these data were changed to hourly rainfall data. R factor and $I60_{max}$ obtained from hourly rainfall data were compared with R factor and $I30_{max}$ obtained from 10 minute interval data. Linear relation between Average annual R factor obtained from 10 minute interval rainfall and from hourly data was derived with $R^2=0.69$. Correction coefficient was developed for the R factor calculated using hourly rainfall data.. Similarly, the relation was obtained between event wise $I30_{max}$ and $I60_{max}$ with higher $R^2$ value of 0.91. Thus $I30_{max}$ can be estimated from I60max with higher accuracy and thus the hourly rainfall data can be used to determine R factor more precisely by multiplying Energy of each rainfall event with this corrected $I60_{max}$.

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연최대 호우사상 계열을 이용한 측우기자료 및 현대자료의 비교 (Comparison of Chukwooki and Modern data Using Annual Maximum Rainfall Event Series)

  • 박민규;유철상;김현준
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제30권2B호
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    • pp.137-147
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구에서는 연최대 호우사상 계열을 이용하여 측우기자료와 현대자료를 비교하였다. 측우기 시강우 자료를 이용하여 현대 빈도해석에서 필요한 특정지속기간의 연최대치 계열을 얻는 것이 불가능하므로 두 관측기간의 비교를 위해 독립호우사상 개념을 이용해 연최대 호우사상 계열을 작성하였다. 연최대호우사상은 이변량지수분포를 이용하여 결정하였으며 모수 추정을 위해 연도별 모수를 이용하는 경우가 보다 적절할 것으로 검토되었다. 이는 연도별 모수를 이용할 경우의 결과가 모수의 경년별 변동성이 연강수량의 변동성과 비교해 의미를 가지기 때문이다. 전체적인 독립호우사상을 비교한다면 현대기록이든 측우기기록이든 강우지속기간에서는 큰 차이가 없지만 현대보다는 측우기 관측기록의 경우가 총강우량과 강우강도가 크게 나타났다. 그러나, 연최대 호우사상의 비교에서는 측우기에 비해 현대의 경우가 강우지속기간이 현격하게 길어지면서 강우강도는 큰 차이가 없게 나타나 총강우량에서 상당한 증가를 보이는 것으로 확인되었다. 또한 이러한 연최대호우사상의 경향성을 살펴본 결과 현대관측기간 동안에는 강우지속기간과 총강우량이 증가하는 경향을 보이고 있지만 측우기 관측기록과 비교시에는 일정한 주기성의 한 부분으로 보는 것이 보다 적절한 것으로 판단되었다.

제주도 하천의 수위-유량 변동특성연구

  • 문덕철;하규철;고기원;박기화
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지하수토양환경학회 2004년도 임시총회 및 추계학술발표회
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    • pp.422-425
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    • 2004
  • To understand runoff Phenomena in Jeju island, some streams are monitored automatically about stream stage, and water quality in Jeju Provincial Water Resources Management Office. Rating curves for stream discharge are reviewed. Stream stages respond very quick to some rainfall events, and parameters influencing runoff phenomena such as landuse, soil condition, preconditoned rainfall, and vegetables will be studied. A few thousand to ten thousand ml/day are estimated from 6 permanent streams in Jeju island.

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