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Application of Web Query Information for Forecasting Korean Unemployment Rate (실업률 예측을 위한 인터넷 검색 정보의 활용)

  • Kwon, Chi-Myung;Hwang, Sung-Won;Jung, Jae-Un
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2015
  • Unemployment is related to social issues as well as personal economics activity so various policies have been made to reduce the unemployment rate in many countries. Because of delay inherent in the survey mechanism to collect unemployment data, it takes lots of time to acquire survey unemployment data. To develop proper policies for reducing unemployment rate at the right time, it is quite critical to obtain faster and more accurate information concerning about unemployment level. To remedy this problem, recently an advanced analytics utilizing internet queries is suggested. To examine the potential of Web query information, this research investigates the usefulness of internet activity data to predict Korean unemployment rate. One of selected web-query data(unemployment claim) has a quite strong correlation with unemployment rate. This research employes a time series approach of the ARIMA model that utilizes the information of keyword queries provided by the Naver(Korean representative portal site) trend together with unemployment rate data provisioned from Statistics Korea. With respect to model selection guidelines of mean squared error and prediction error, the model with utilizing the web query information shows better results than the model without such information. This suggests that there is a strong potential for the used method, which needs to be further explored.

A Design of Pipelined Adaptive Decision-Feedback Equalized using Delayed LMS and Redundant Binary Complex Filter Structure (Delayed LMS와 Redundant Binary 복소수 필터구조를 이용한 파이프라인 적응 결정귀환 등화기 설계)

  • An, Byung-Gyu;Lee, Jong-Nam;Shin, Kyung-Wook
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SD
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    • v.37 no.12
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    • pp.60-69
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    • 2000
  • This paper describes a single-chip full-custom implementation of pipelined adaptive decision-feedback equalizer(PADFE) using a 0.25-${\mu}m$ CMOS technology for wide-band wireless digital communication systems. To enhance the throughput rate of ADFE, two pipeline stages are inserted into the critical path of the ADFE by using delayed least-mean-square(DLMS) algorithm. Redundant binary (RB) arithmetic is applied to all the data processing of the PADFE including filter taps and coefficient update blocks. When compared with conventional methods based on two's complement arithmetic, the proposed approach reduces arithmetic complexity, as well as results in a very simple complex-valued filter structure, thus suitable for VLSI implementation. The design parameters including pipeline stage, filter tap, coefficient and internal bit-width, and equalization performance such as bit error rate (BER) and convergence speed are analyzed by algorithm-level simulation using COSSAP. The single-chip PADFE contains about 205,000 transistors on an area of about $1.96\times1.35-mm^2$. Simulation results show that it can safely operate with 200-MHz clock frequency at 2.5-V supply, and its estimated power dissipation is about 890-mW. Test results show that the fabricated chip works functionally well.

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Total Degradation Performance Evaluation of the Time- and Frequency-Domain Clipping in OFDM Systems (OFDM 시스템에서 시간 및 주파수 영역 클리핑의 Total Degradation 성능평가)

  • Han, Chang-Sik;Seo, Man-Jung;Im, Sung-Bin
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.44 no.7 s.361
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    • pp.17-22
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    • 2007
  • OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing) is a special case of multicarrier transmission, where a single data stream is transmitted over a number of lower-rate subcarrier. One of the main reasons to use OFDM is to increase robustness against frequency-selective fading or narrowband interference. Unfortunately, an OFDM signal consists of a number of independently modulated subcarriers, which can give a large PAPR (Peak-to-Average Power Ratio) when added up coherently. In this paper, we investigate the performance of a simple PAPR reduction scheme, which requires no change of a receiver structure or no additional information transmission. The approach we employed is clipping in the time and frequency domains. The time-domain clipping is carried out with a predetermined clipping level while the frequency-domain clipping is done within EVM (Error Vector Magnitude). This approach is suboptimal with lower computational complexity compared to the optimal method. This evaluation is carried out on the OFDM system with an nonlinear amplifier. The simulation results demonstrated that the PAPR reduction algorithm is one of ways to reduce the effects of the nonlinear distortion of an HPA (High Power Amplifier).

A study of Bayesian inference on auto insurance credibility application (자동차보험 신뢰도 적용에 대한 베이지안 추론 방식 연구)

  • Kim, Myung Joon;Kim, Yeong-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.689-699
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    • 2013
  • This paper studies the partial credibility application method by assuming the empirical prior or noninformative prior informations in auto insurnace business where intensive rating segmentation is expanded because of premium competition. Expanding of rating factor segmetation brings the increase of pricing cells, as a result, the number of cells for partial credibility application will increase correspondingly. This study is trying to suggest more accurate estimation method by considering the Bayesian framework. By using empirically well-known or noninformative information, inducing the proper posterior distribution and applying the Bayes estimate which is minimizing the error loss into the credibility method, we will show the advantage of Bayesian inference by comparison with current approaches. The comparison is implemented with square root rule which is a widely accepted method in insurance business. The convergence level towarding to the true risk will be compared among various approaches. This study introduces the alternative way of redcuing the error to the auto insurance business fields in need of various methods because of more segmentations.

GAP Estimation on Arterial Road via Vehicle Labeling of Drone Image (드론 영상의 차량 레이블링을 통한 간선도로 차간간격(GAP) 산정)

  • Jin, Yu-Jin;Bae, Sang-Hoon
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.90-100
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to detect and label the vehicles using the drone images as a way to overcome the limitation of the existing point and section detection system and vehicle gap estimation on Arterial road. In order to select the appropriate time zone, position, and altitude for the acquisition of the drone image data, the final image data was acquired by shooting under various conditions. The vehicle was detected by applying mixed Gaussian, image binarization and morphology among various image analysis techniques, and the vehicle was labeled by applying Kalman filter. As a result of the labeling rate analysis, it was confirmed that the vehicle labeling rate is 65% by detecting 185 out of 285 vehicles. The gap was calculated by pixel unitization, and the results were verified through comparison and analysis with Daum maps. As a result, the gap error was less than 5m and the mean error was 1.67m with the preceding vehicle and 1.1m with the following vehicle. The gaps estimated in this study can be used as the density of the urban roads and the criteria for judging the service level.

A Study on Advanced Seafarers' Training for Improving Abilities of Officers in Charge of a Navigational Watch who Handle Navigational Equipment: To Focus on the ECDIS (항해사의 항해기기 취급 능력 향상을 위한 해기 교육 개선에 대한 연구: ECDIS를 중심으로)

  • LEE, Bo-Kyeong;KIM, Dae-Hae;LEE, Sang-Do;CHO, Ik-Soon
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.323-335
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    • 2016
  • The main reason of marine casualties is the human error in respect of ship's operation. The human error of officers in charge of a navigational watch is related to their abilities to handle of navigational equipment. Navigational devices play a key role to help officers decide what to do for safe navigation. Thus, the abilities to handle of navigational equipment mean not only operation of devices but also entire understanding of the system such as interpretation of information obtained from devices, appropriate use of information considering navigational circumstance. Qualification of seafarers is in accordance with STCW and detailed training courses for their qualification are provided by IMO model course series. Recently, ships engaged on international voyages shall be fitted with an ECDIS not later than the first survey on or after 1 July 2018. As increasing use of ECDIS on ships, marine casualties related to ECDIS are on the rise. The primary causes of the accidents are lacking understanding of ECDIS system, wrong presentation of information on display, wrong safety setting by seafarers who use ECDIS, using small-scale chart and missing charts update. As a result of these primary causes, some problems like wrong route planning and use of limited or omitted information occur. It could be happening by inappropriate seafarers' training which is not sufficient to support improving abilities of officers to handle navigational equipment. For efficient training, it is need to develop training courses. Applying full mission simulation system to seafarers' training courses with case studies and best practices which are well-constructed scenarios based on true marine casualties can increase the effect of training. To use the simulation system, it is possible that seafarers are trained under condition that closely resemble real situation. It should be considered that IMO model course be revised depending on the level of seafarers also. It could be helpful for increasing seafarers' abilities of equipment operation in place of accumulation of experience spending much time. In the short term, effort of training courses improvement for seafarers is needed and long term, it should be tried to provide stable system and services relate to ECDIS.

Nonlinear Autoregressive Modeling of Southern Oscillation Index (비선형 자기회귀모형을 이용한 남방진동지수 시계열 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.12 s.173
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    • pp.997-1012
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    • 2006
  • We have presented a nonparametric stochastic approach for the SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) series that used nonlinear methodology called Nonlinear AutoRegressive(NAR) based on conditional kernel density function and CAFPE(Corrected Asymptotic Final Prediction Error) lag selection. The fitted linear AR model represents heteroscedasticity, and besides, a BDS(Brock - Dechert - Sheinkman) statistics is rejected. Hence, we applied NAR model to the SOI series. We can identify the lags 1, 2 and 4 are appropriate one, and estimated conditional mean function. There is no autocorrelation of residuals in the Portmanteau Test. However, the null hypothesis of normality and no heteroscedasticity is rejected in the Jarque-Bera Test and ARCH-LM Test, respectively. Moreover, the lag selection for conditional standard deviation function with CAFPE provides lags 3, 8 and 9. As the results of conditional standard deviation analysis, all I.I.D assumptions of the residuals are accepted. Particularly, the BDS statistics is accepted at the 95% and 99% significance level. Finally, we split the SOI set into a sample for estimating themodel and a sample for out-of-sample prediction, that is, we conduct the one-step ahead forecasts for the last 97 values (15%). The NAR model shows a MSEP of 0.5464 that is 7% lower than those of the linear model. Hence, the relevance of the NAR model may be proved in these results, and the nonparametric NAR model is encouraging rather than a linear one to reflect the nonlinearity of SOI series.

Digital Blood Pressure Estimation with the Differential Value of the Arterial Pulse Waveform (맥파의 차동값에 의한 디지털 방식의 혈압 추정 기법)

  • Kim, Boyeon;Chang, Yunseok
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.5 no.6
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    • pp.135-142
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    • 2016
  • We proposed the new method to estimate the blood pressure with the differential value of the digital arterial pulse waveform and BP relation equation. To get the digital arterial pulse waveform, we use the arterial pulse waveform measurement system that has digital air-pressure sensor device and smart phone. The acquired digital arterial pulse waveforms are classified as hypertension group, normal group, and hypotension group, and we can derive the average differential value between the highest point and lowest point of a single waveform of individuals along with the group. In this study, we found the functional correlation between the blood pressure and differential value as a form of BP relation equation through the regression process on the average of differential value and blood pressure value from a tonometer. The Experimental results show the BP relation equation can give easy blood pressure estimation method with a high accuracy. Although this estimation method has over 66 % error rate and does not give the high level of the accuracy for the diastolic compares to the commercial tonometer, the estimation results for the systolic show the high accuracy that has less than 10 % error rate.

Lever Arm Compensation of Reference Trajectory for Flight Performance Evaluation of DGPS/INS installed on Aircraft (항공기에 탑재된 DGPS/INS 복합항법 장치의 비행 시험 성능 평가를 위한 기준궤적의 Lever Arm 보정)

  • Park, Ji-Hee;Lee, Seong-Woo;Park, Deok-Bae;Shin, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.40 no.12
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    • pp.1086-1092
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    • 2012
  • It has been studied for DGPS/INS(Differential Global Positioning System/Inertial Navigation System) to offer the more precise and reliable navigation data with the aviation industry development. The flight performance evaluation of navigation system is very significant because the reliability of navigation data directly affect the safety of aircraft. Especially, the high-level navigation system, as DGPS/INS, need more precise flight performance evaluation method. The performance analysis is performed by comparing between the DGPS/INS navigation data and reference trajectory which is more precise than DGPS/INS. The GPS receiver, which is capable of post-processed CDGPS(Carrier-phase DGPS) method, can be used as reference system. Generally, the DGPS/INS is estimated the CG(Center of Gravity) point of aircraft while the reference system is output the position of GPS antenna which is mounted on the outside of aircraft. For this reason, estimated error between DGPS/INS and reference system will include the error due to lever arm. In order to more precise performance evaluation, it is needed to compensate the lever arm. This paper presents procedure and result of flight test which includes lever arm compensation in order to verify reliability and performance of DGPS/INS more precisely.

An Efficient Congestion Control Mechanism for Tree-based Many-to-many Reliable Multicast (트리 기반의 다대다 신뢰적 멀티캐스트를 위한 효율적인 혼잡 제어 기법)

  • 유제영;강경란;이동만
    • Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.656-667
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    • 2003
  • Congestion control is a key task in reliable multicast along with error control. However, existing tree-based congestion control schemes such as MTCP and TRAMCC are designed for one-to-many reliable multicast and have some drawbacks when they are used for many-to-many reliable multicast. We propose an efficient congestion control mechanism, TMRCC, for tree-based many-to-many reliable multicast protocols. The proposed scheme is based on the congestion windowing mechanism and a rate controller is used in addition. The feedback for error recovery is exploited for congestion control as well to minimize the overhead at the receivers. The ACK timer and the NACK timers are set dynamically reflecting the network condition changes. The rate regulation algorithm in the proposed scheme is designed to help the flows sharing the same link to achieve the fair share quickly The performance of the proposed scheme is evaluated using ns-2. The simulation results show that the proposed scheme outperforms TRAMCC in terms of intra- session fairness and shows good level of responsiveness, TCP-friendliness, and scalability. In addition, we implemented the proposed scheme by integrating with GAM that is one of many-to-many reliable multicast protocols and evaluated the performance in a laboratory-wide testbed.