• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.487-500
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• 2014

A new method to calculate the transmittable prevalence of an epidemic disease is proposed based on a back-calculation formula. We calculated the probabilities of reactivation and of parasitemia as well as transmittable prevalence (the number of persons with parasitemia in the incubation period) of malaria in South Korea using incidence of 12 years(2001-2012). For this computation, a new probability function of transmittable condition is obtained. The probability of reactivation is estimated by the least squares method for the back-calculated longterm incubation period. The probability of parasitemia is calculated by a convolution of the survival function of the short-term incubation function and the probability of reactivation. Transmittable prevalence is computed by a convolution of the infected numbers and the probabilities of transmission. Confidence intervals are calculated using the parametric bootstrap method. The method proposed is applicable to other epidemic diseases in other countries where incidence and a long incubation period are available. We found the estimated transmittable prevalence in South Korea was concentrated in the summer with 276 cases on a peak at the $31^{st}$ week and with about a 60% reduction in the peak from the naive prevalence. The statistics of transmittable prevalence can be used for malaria prevention programs and to select blood transfusion donors.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.403-415
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• 1974

The author has investigated epidemiological features of human cases of epidemic encephalitis (E. E.) in the Republic of Korea and the status of antibody requisition in pre-and post-epidemic time. And virological and serological studies with regarding the relationship of E. E. infection between human and piglet, and field survey against its vector by means of virus isolation from mosquitoes were carried out. Finally, vaccine field trial against human population has also been evaluated in order to confirm its effectiveness. The results of the studies are summarized as follows : 1. The annual incidence of reported cases during the past 25 years (1949-1973) in the Republic of Korea has shown two patterns, one was typical cyclic incidence and the other one was irregular. Annual average morbidity and mortality rate per 100,000 population were 5.7 and 2.1 and fatality rate was 34.6% in typical cyclic years. 2. With regard to the geographical distribution of E. E., the province of Jeolla-Bug-Do illustrated the highest incidence regardless of the epidemic size. 3. The main epidemic period was between mid-August and mid-September (above 90% of the total number of cases). The first case was reported in middle of July and the epidemic ceased in late of October. 4. An analysis of the age distribution of cases of E. E., has shown that above 90% of the total cases occurred in the age groups under 14 years and it was noted that about its 54% were occurred in the age groups between 5-9 years group. 5. Through the Haemagglutination Inhibition (H-I) test for the laboratory diagnosis of E. E., it was found that higher H-I antibody titer was usually detected in the convalescent phase, 15 days after onset. 6. The H-I antibody survey against 563 healthy population by age groups during the pre-epidemic season showed that 422(75%) were less than H-I titer, 1:20 and 122(21.7%) were positive H-I titer, 1:20. Among the 94 American in Seoul who had not been in E. E. endemic area previously only one person had appeared sero-conversion as a H-I titer of 1:80 after post-epidemic season. 7. The E. E. virus could be isolated from the mosquitos pools-C, tritaeniorhyncus which were caught between late July and middle August. 8. E.E. Virus was also isolated from piglet blood on early August and H-I antibody conversion was occurred mostly on middle of August. 9. H-I antibody sero-conversion rate reached to high level when vaccine purified by mouse brain tissue inoculated, showing 98.9%. Higher antibody titer was acquired when booster inoculation was performed, Four fold rise of H-I add N-T antibodies was confirmed with 93.2% and 82.1% respectively.

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.73-85
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• 1971

A epidemiological study was conducted by author on 925 official reported patients with the first grade legal communicable disease during the period from January 1969 to December 1970 in all area of Kangwon province. As the results of this study, tile following conclusion were obtained. A) Typhoid fever 1. Of all 925 patients surveyed, typhoid fever showed the highest rate as 50.7 percent. 2. Age group from 10 to 14 years old showed the highest rates 3. High epidemic period was from June to September. 4. As for the occupational distribution, unemployed showed the highest rate as 63.2 percent, followed by-21.1 percent in farmer and 9.4 percent in student. 5. Most of all patients(93.7%) were isolated in their own house 6. The morbidity rate was 16.0 per 100, 000 population and case fatality rate was 1.76 percent 7. The mean of the duration from onset to diagnosis and carnation were 11.7$\pm$7.1 days and 25.1$\pm$13, 8 days respectively. 8. Main diagnostic method was almost the clinical examination B) Dysentery 1, Of all 925 patients surveyed, dysentery showed 44.4 percent 2. Age group from 0 to 9 years old showed the highest rate 3. High epidemic period of this disease was from April to August 4. As for the occupational distribution, unemployed showed the highest rate as 73.9 percent, followed by 17.7 person in farmers and 7.0 percent in student 5. the attack rate of agricultural area was higher than of fishing area 6. The mean of the duration from onset to diagnosis and crating duration were 10.4$\pm$4.3 days and 15.7$\pm$8.8 days respectively. 7. The morbidity rate and case fatality rate were 21.8 per 100.000 population and 1.46 percent, respectively. 8. Most of all patients were isolated in own house 9. Most of all patients (97.6%) were diagnosed by the clinical examination C) Diphtheria 1. As for the age distribution, 0-4 years old group showed the highest rate as 44.4 percent followed by 27.7 percent in 5-9 years old group and 22.2 percent in 10-14 years old group 3. Epidemic season was almost in autumn, winter and spring 3. The morbidity rate was 0.96 per 100.000 population and case fatality rate was high as 26.6 percent 4. 66.6 percent of this disease was isolated in their own house and the others were admitted in hospital D) Paratyphoid fever 1. Most of all patients were attacked below 20 years old 2. Epidemic season was almost was almost in late summer 3. The morbidity rate was 0.53 per 100.000 population 4. The mean of the duration from onset to diagnosis and crating duration were 18.3$\pm$1.3 day and 13.7$\pm$0.2 day. respectively.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.297-307
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• 2017

질병 확산 모형은 질병의 확산 과정을 모형화 함으로써 질병이 발생하고 퍼지는 시간 내에서 통제하기 위하여 활용하고자 하는 모형이다. 본 연구에서는 질병 확산 모형의 가장 대표적인 SIR 모형에 기본적인 확장 접근을 하여 접촉군 (exposed)이라는 단계를 추가한 SEIR 모형을 이용하여 모형 구축을 하였다. 이 모형은 감염 대상군 (susceptible)의 사람들이 질병에 노출 된 잠복기를 거쳐 일정 시간이 경과한 후 감염되어 감염군 (infected)으로 이동한 후 다시 회복군 (removed)으로 이동하는 모형이다. 이와 같이 질병에 감염된 후 감염력이 생기는 잠복기가 있는 경우에 연구에 활용될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 2015년 국내에서 발생한 메르스 코로나바이러스 (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus; MERS CoV)에 의한 호흡기 감염증 자료를 수집하였다. 질병의 확산 과정이 결정적이 아닌 확률적인 흐름을 따른다고 가정하여 포아송 확률과정을 따른다고 보고 확률적 화학반응 모형을 이용하여 모형을 구축하였다. 모형을 구현하기 위해서 SEIR 모형의 세 모수인 질병에 노출된 정도를 나타내는 접촉률 (exposed rate), 질병의 감염 정도를 나타내는 감염률 (transmission rate), 질병의 회복정도를 나타내는 회복률 (recovery rate)를 추정함으로써, SEIR 모형에 적합하고 전염병 확산에 대한 예측을 수행하였다. 또한 접촉군이 정확하게 관찰되지 않을 부분을 보완하기 위하여 접촉군을 생성하는 과정을 전체 모형 구축 과정에 추가하였다.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.294-301
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• 2022

Background: In the early stage of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, small- and midsized enterprises (SMEs) may be an important transmission consideration. The study aimed to identify the pattern of COVID-19 prevention measures during the outbreaks in Daegu and Gyeongsangbuk-do at the early stage of COVID-19. Moreover, we investigated whether SME size and past experiences affected the preventive measures implemented in the region. Methods: A survey detailing the general characteristics and implementation of 12 preventive activities was conducted in 122 SMEs in Daegu and Gyeongsangbuk-do. The survey was analyzed by size and operation period. Results: The study subjects consisted of 53 (43.4%) workplaces with 1-5 employees, 50 (40.9%) workplaces with 6-30 employees, and 19 (15.6%) workplaces with 31-49 employees. The lowest three items among those surveyed were 'symptomatic workers to stay home for 3-4 days' (17.2%), 'work remotely' (18.9%), and 'video meetings' (20.5%). There were significant differences in the rate of several preventive measures implemented. The larger sized SMEs, the higher the number of implementations (p < 0.01). The operation period had no significant relationship with the implementation of preventive measures. The same pattern was observed in multiple generalized linear regression with covariate adjustment. Conclusion: Preventive measures among SMEs with fewer than 50 employees were identified. Even within SMEs, a gap in preventive measures according to size was confirmed. To prevent the spread of infection and protect workers' right to health, different support for different sized SMEs is necessary.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제30권3_4호
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• pp.635-646
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• 2012

This paper is concerned with an SIRS epidemic model with spatial diffusion and time delay representing the length of the immunity period. By using a new cross iteration scheme and Schauder's fixed point theorem, we reduce the existence of traveling wave solutions to the existence of a pair of upper-lower solutions. By constructing a newfashioned pair of upper-lower solutions, we derive the existence of a traveling wave solution connecting the uninfected steady state and the infected steady state.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제27권3_4호
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• pp.779-793
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• 2009

This paper deals with a delayed SEIRS epidemic model with pulse vaccination and crowded incidence rate. Moreover, the case of vertical and horizontal transmission is considered. By using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, the exact infection-free periodic solution of the SEIRS model is obtained. Further, by employing the comparison arguments, we prove that under the condition that $R_*$ < 1 the infection-free periodic solution is globally attractive, and that under the condition that $R^*$ > 1 the disease is uniformly persistent, which means that after some period of time the disease will become endemic.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제53권1호
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• pp.9-15
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• 2011

Highly pathogenic avian influenza could not be identified visually. It takes time to identify the symptoms by its incubation period. Without taking a quick step, the diffusion area of HPAI has dramatically increased, the extent of damage becomes bigger. In network research, the algorithm of finding the central node on the network applied to various diffusion of epidemic problems, was used in control system of tracing the diffusion path, blocking central nodes. This study tried to make the diffusion of HPAI network model for the crowded farms area, and reduce the diffusion rate to control the high-risk farms.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.149-158
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• 2009

쯔쯔가무시증은 가을철 유행성 출혈열 중 80%이상을 차지하는 질병으로 1주에서 2주의 잠복기를 가지는 것으로 알려져 있다. 우리는 그 잠복기간의 확률분포가 감마분포라 가정하고 후향연산식을 이용하여, ${\hat{\mu}}=309.92$$, ${\hat{\sigma}}=14.154$인 정규분포를 따르는 감염자 분포를 추정하였다. 감염자는 10월에 집중적으로 분포하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 감염자 분포형태는 발병자 수가 11월동안 급격하게 증가하는 것에 기인한다. 본 연구에서 추정한 감염확률에 의해 미래의 유병자수를 계산한 결과 최대 1200명이었고 이는 매년 증가하는 발병자 수의 경향을 반영하지 못한 한계가 있다. 또한 우리는 전염병 모형으로 잘 알려져 있고 전염발전 단계간의 상호작용을 고려하는 SIRS 모형을 적용해 보았다. 모수는 초기값으로부터 잘 근사되어 수렴하는 값으로 추정하였다.

• Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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• 제48권5호
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• pp.500-505
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• 2005

목 적 : 소아 호흡기 감염의 주된 병원체인 M. pneumoniae는 일반적으로 4 내지 7년의 유행 주기를 가지는 것으로 알려져 있으나 M. pneumoniae 유행 기간 중 항체 양전율에 대한 정확한 국내 보고는 아직까지 없는 실정이다. 이에 저자들은 2003년 하반기 M. pneumoniae 유행 기간 전후로 항체 추적 검사를 시행하여 항체 양전율을 조사하고 나이, 초기 항체가, 아토피 유무가 항체 양전율에 미치는 영향을 알아보고자 본 연구를 시행하였다. 방 법 : 2003년 상반기 본원 외래를 방문하여 Mycoplasma 항체를 측정한 환아 중 혈청 항체가가 음성, 1 : 40, 1 : 80이었던 환아 191명을 대상으로 2004년 상반기에 추적 검사를 실시하였다. 추적 검사상 항체 역가가 4배 이상 증가한 경우를 항체 양전으로 정의하였고 항체 양전 여부에 따라 항체 양전군과 항체 비양전군으로 구분하였다. 혈청 항체 검사는 Serodia-Myco II 입자 응집법을 사용하여 시행하였다. 결 과 : 대상 환아들의 평균 나이는 $6.6{\pm}2.7$세였다. 남여 수는 각각 137명과 54명이었고 4세 이상 환아 중 아토피로 분류된 환아는 75명(44.6%)이었다. 대상 환아 중 항체 양전을 보인 환아는 83명(43.5%)이었다. 항체 양전군과 비양전군의 나이, 성별, 아토피 유무를 각각 비교하였을 때 두 군간의 유의한 차이는 보이지 않았다. 대상 환아들을 나이에 따라 네 군으로 나누어 비교하였을 때 각 군 사이 유의한 항체 양전율의 차이는 없었다. 초기 항체가가 음성, 1 : 40, 1 : 80이었던 환아들에서 항체 양전율은 각각 45.5%, 46.3%, 26.1%로 각 군 간 항체 양전율의 유의한 차이는 보이지 않았다. 아토피군과 비아토피군으로 나누어 비교하였을 때 항체 양전율은 각각 40.0%, 48.4%로 통계적으로 유의한 차이는 관찰되지 않았다. 결 론 : 2003년 하반기의 M. pneumoniae 유행 시기에 항체 양전율은 43.5%로 관찰되었으며 나이, 초기 항체가, 아토피 유무에 따른 항체 양전율의 차이는 없었다. 위 결과로 미루어 보아 M. pneumoniae 유행 시기에 소아 연령의 상당수에서 M. pneumoniae 감염에 이환되는 것으로 생각되며 M. pneumoniae의 혈청학적 역학 연구에 항체 양전율 조사가 유용하게 쓰일 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.