• Title/Summary/Keyword: Environmental Impact Assessment prediction

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Prediction of Land-cover Change in the Gongju Areas using Fuzzy Logic and Geo-spatial Information (퍼지 논리와 지리공간정보를 이용한 공주지역 토지피복 변화 예측)

  • Jang, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.387-402
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    • 2005
  • In this study, we tried to predict the change of future land-cover and relationships between land-cover change and geo-spatial information in the Gongju area by using fuzzy logic operation. Quantitative evaluation of prediction models was carried out using a prediction rate curve using. Based on the analysis of correlations between the geo-spatial information and land-cover change, the class with the highest correlation was extracted. Fuzzy operations were used to predict land-cover change and determine the land-cover prediction maps that were the most suitable. It was predicted that in urban areas, the urban expansion of old and new towns would occur centering on the Gem-river, and that urbanization of areas along the interchange and national roads would also expand. Among agricultural areas, areas adjacent to national roads connected to small tributaries of the Gem-river and neighboring areas would likely experience changes. Most of the forest areas are located in southeast and from this result we can guess why the wide chestnut-tree cultivation complex is located in these areas and the possibility of forest damage is very high. As a result of validation using the prediction rate curve, it was indicated that among fuzzy operators, the maximum fuzzy operator was the most suitable for analyzing land-cover change in urban and agricultural areas. Other fuzzy operators resulted in the similar prediction capabilities. However, in the prediction rate curve of integrated models for land-cover prediction in the forest areas, most fuzzy operators resulted in poorer prediction capabilities. Thus, it is necessary to apply new thematic maps or prediction models in connection with the effective prediction of changes in the forest areas.

A Simulation Study on Future Climate Change Considering Potential Forest Distribution Change in Landcover (잠재 산림분포 변화를 고려한 토지이용도가 장래 기후변화에 미치는 영향 모사)

  • Kim, Jea-Chul;Lee, Chong Bum;Choi, Sungho
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.105-117
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    • 2012
  • Future climate according to land-use change was simulated by regional climate model. The goal of study was to predict the distribution of meteorological elements using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF). The KME (Korea Ministry of Environment) medium-category land-use classification was used as dominant vegetation types. Meteorological modeling requires higher and more sophisticated land-use and initialization data. The WRF model simulations with HyTAG land-use indicated certain change in potential vegetation distribution in the future (2086-2088). Compared to the past (1986-1988) distribution, coniferous forest area was decreased in metropolitan and areas with complex terrain. The research shows a possibility to simulate regional climate with high resolution. As a result, the future climate was predicted to $4.5^{\circ}$ which was $0.5^{\circ}$ higher than prediction by Meteorological Administration. To improve future prediction of regional area, regional climate model with HyTAG as well as high resolution initial values such as urban growth and CO2 flux simulation would be desirable.

A Review on Environmental Impact Assessment and Policy Utilization through the Establishment of Ecological Outlook and Evaluation System (자연생태 전망평가체계 마련을 통한 환경영향평가 및 정책 활용방안 고찰)

  • Who-Seung Lee
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.363-376
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    • 2023
  • As the risk of biodiversity reduction and extinction becomes serious due to climate change and indiscriminate development, the importance of conservation of the natural environment and ecosystem is increasing. In this situation, Ireviewed that overseas cases of the ecological outlook and evaluation system aimed at providing information on natural resources and ecosystem change. As a results, other countries showed that various research institutes have been carrying on field surveys by classification group, but it was different from us that the investigated data are collected and managed in an integrated manner and repeatedly provided within a short period of time. In addition, it was analyzed that it was highly utilized in policy and environmental impact assessment by providing evaluation-based prediction and outlook information along with basic survey data. Based on this, the limitations of information use in our wildlife surveys and environmental impacts assessments were analyzed, and the estabilishment of a ecology outlook and evaluation system and policy support measures were considered. In addition, based on the proposed outlook and evaluation system preparation plan, a policy direction that can be effectively used in domestic natural ecosystem policies was proposed.

Put English Title Here (새마을열차 환경소음 예측식 성능 비교에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Jun-Ho;Koh, Hyo-In;Kim, Jae-Chul
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.105-108
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    • 2007
  • Recently, due to the high interests for well being life, claims about noise ad vibration are increased very rapidly. Therefore more reliable and exact evaluation of noise impact has been required. Until now in Korea, only one prediction equation for the assessment of railway environmental noise was used. But that equation has many limits and weak points because of the update was not performed from 1993. So in this study, the performance of another equation proposed by authors was compared to the former. As a result, proposed prediction equation may be used to evaluate the impact of railway noise in the future.

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Prediction of Landslides Occurrence Probability under Climate Change using MaxEnt Model (MaxEnt 모형을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 산사태 발생가능성 예측)

  • Kim, Hogul;Lee, Dong-Kun;Mo, Yongwon;Kil, Sungho;Park, Chan;Lee, Soojae
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2013
  • Occurrence of landslides has been increasing due to extreme weather events(e.g. heavy rainfall, torrential rains) by climate change. Pyeongchang, Korea had seriously been damaged by landslides caused by a typhoon, Ewiniar in 2006. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of landslides are increasing in summer due to torrential rain. Therefore, risk assessment and adaptation measure is urgently needed to build resilience. To support landslide adaptation measures, this study predicted landslides occurrence using MaxEnt model and suggested susceptibility map of landslides. Precipitation data of RCP 8.5 Climate change scenarios were used to analyze an impact of increase in rainfall in the future. In 2050 and 2090, the probability of landslides occurrence was predicted to increase. These were due to an increase in heavy rainfall and cumulative rainfall. As a result of analysis, factors that has major impact on landslide appeared to be climate factors, prediction accuracy of the model was very high(92%). In the future Pyeongchang will have serious rainfall compare to 2006 and more intense landslides area expected to increase. This study will help to establish adaptation measure against landslides due to heavy rainfall.

A Study on Suitability of Road Traffic Noise Map for Environmental Noise Impact Assessment (환경소음 영향평가 시 도로교통 소음지도의 적용성 검토 연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Yoon;Park, Sang-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.311-316
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    • 2008
  • It is needed to assess the impact of the road traffic noise for city planning. In Korea, the current noise impact assessment h3s not yet considered the impacts of the multiple reflection, the deflection and the ground attenuation caused by buildings and other obstacles. A noise map is useful tool to solve this problems. But before everything else, suitability of noise map must be assessed for variety of geometry conditions. In this study, we assessed suitability of road traffic noise map by compared measured noise levels with predicted noise levels from each road traffic noise map for Site A, B and C.

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Simulation of Water Pollution Accident with Water Quality Model (수질모형을 이용한 수질오염사고의 모의분석)

  • Choi, Hyun Gu;Park, Jun Hyung;Han, Kun Yeun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.177-186
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    • 2014
  • Depending on the change of lifestyle and the improvement of people's living standards and rapid industrialization, urbanization of recent, demand for water is increasing rapidly. So emissions of domestic wastewater and various industrial waste water has increased, and water quality is worsening day by day. Therefore, in order to provide a measure against the occurrence of water pollution accident, this study was tried to simulate water pollution accident. This study simulated 2008 Gimcheon phenol accident using 1,2-D model, and analyze scenario for prevent of water pollution accident. Consequently the developed 1-D model presents high reappearance when compared with 2-D model, and has been able to obtain results in a short simulation run time. This study will contribute to the water pollution incident response prediction system and water quality analysis in the future.

A Method for Improvement of Tide and Tidal Current Prediction Accuracy (조위 및 조류 예측 정확도의 개선 방법)

  • Jung, Tae-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.234-240
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    • 2010
  • In order to predict coastal environmental changes caused by coastal development and effectively manage marine environment, the exact information about water level changes and hydrodynamic circulation is essential. However, most of the environmental impact assessment has been using only limited tidal constituents in the numerical tide model to predict the real tide and tidal currents caused by the synthesis of many other tidal constituents, which causes an error in the environmental impact assessment. In this study, a method, which uses the limited tidal constituents at the offshore open boundaries and the observed tide at the inner or nearby point to predict the real tide in the model domain accurately, is suggested. Tidal and tidal currents predicted by the suggested method agreed well with the observations.

Real-time Water Quality Prediction for Evaluation of Influent Characteristics in a Full-scale Sewerage Treatment Plant (하수처리장 유입수의 특성평가를 위한 실시간 수질예측)

  • Kim, Youn-Kwon;Chae, Soo-Kwon;Han, In-Sun;Kim, Ju-Hwan
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.617-623
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    • 2010
  • It is the most important subject to figure out characteristics of the wastewater inflows of sewerage treatment plant(STP) when situation models are applied to operation of the biological processes and in the automatic control based on ICA(Instrument, Control and Automation). For the purposes, real-time influent monitoring method has been applied by using on-line monitoring equipments for the process optimization in conventional STP. Since, the influent of STP is consist of complex components such as, COD, BOD, TN, $NH_4$-N, $NO_3$-N, TP and $PO_4$-P. MRA2(Microbial Respiration Analyzer 2), which is capable of real-time analyzing of wastewater characteristics is used to overcome the limitations and defects of conventional online monitoring equipments in this study. Rapidity, accuracy and stability of developed MRA2 are evaluated and compared with the results from on-line monitoring equipments for seven months after installation in Full-scale STP.

Methodological Status and Improvement of Additional Evaluation of Health Impact Items in Environmental Impact Assessment (환경영향평가서 내 건강영향 항목 추가·평가의 방법론적 현황과 개선)

  • Ha, Jongsik
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.453-466
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    • 2020
  • The addition and evaluation of health impact items in Environmental Impact Assessment document are written in hygiene and public health items only for specific development projects and are being reviewed. However, after the publication of the evaluation manual on the addition and evaluation of health impact items in 2011, there is a demand for continuous methodology and improvement plans despite partial improvement. Therefore, in order to propose a methodological improvement of the evaluation manual, this technical paper identified detailed improvement requirements based on the consultation opinions on hygiene and public health items, and investigated and suggested ways to solve this problem by reviewing the contents of the research so far. As for the improvement requirements, the contents related to mitigation plan, post management, effect prediction, assessment, and present-condition investigation were presented in Environmental Impact Assessment documents for the entire development project at a frequency of 93%, 85%, 80%, 74%, and 67%, respectively. Particularly, the detailed improvement requirements related to mitigation plan consisted of an establishment direction and a management of development project. Considering the current evaluation manual and the frequency of improvement requirements, this paper proposed concrete methods or improvement plans for major methodologies for each classification of hygiene and public health items. Furthermore, a comprehensive evaluation methodology related to whether a project is implemented was proposed, which is not provided in the current assessment manual.