• 제목/요약/키워드: Engineering Judgment Model

검색결과 111건 처리시간 0.17초

New reliability framework for assessment of existing concrete bridge structures

  • Mahdi Ben Ftima;Bruno Massicotte;David Conciatori
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • 제89권4호
    • /
    • pp.399-409
    • /
    • 2024
  • Assessment of existing concrete bridges is a challenge for owners. It has greater economic impact when compared to designing new bridges. When using conventional linear analyses, judgment of the engineer is required to understand the behavior of redundant structures after the first element in the structural system reaches its ultimate capacity. The alternative is to use a predictive tool such as advanced nonlinear finite element analyses (ANFEA) to assess the overall structural behavior. This paper proposes a new reliability framework for the assessment of existing bridge structures using ANFEA. A general framework defined in previous works, accounting for material uncertainties and concrete model performance, is adapted to the context of the assessment of existing bridges. A "shifted" reliability problem is defined under the assumption of quasi-deterministic dead load effects. The overall exercise is viewed as a progressive pushover analysis up to structural failure, where the actual safety index is compared at each event to a target reliability index.

Evidential Analytic Hierarchy Process Dependence Assessment Methodology in Human Reliability Analysis

  • Chen, Luyuan;Zhou, Xinyi;Xiao, Fuyuan;Deng, Yong;Mahadevan, Sankaran
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제49권1호
    • /
    • pp.113-123
    • /
    • 2017
  • In human reliability analysis, dependence assessment is an important issue in risky large complex systems, such as operation of a nuclear power plant. Many existing methods depend on an expert's judgment, which contributes to the subjectivity and restrictions of results. Recently, a computational method, based on the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory and analytic hierarchy process, has been proposed to handle the dependence in human reliability analysis. The model can deal with uncertainty in an analyst's judgment and reduce the subjectivity in the evaluation process. However, the computation is heavy and complicated to some degree. The most important issue is that the existing method is in a positive aspect, which may cause an underestimation of the risk. In this study, a new evidential analytic hierarchy process dependence assessment methodology, based on the improvement of existing methods, has been proposed, which is expected to be easier and more effective.

모바일 디바이스의 원인불명고장에 관한 비용 추정 (Mobile Device NDF(No Defect Found) Cost Estimation)

  • 이제왕;이정우;한창희
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
    • /
    • 제44권2호
    • /
    • pp.102-114
    • /
    • 2021
  • NDF (No Defect Found) is a phenomenon in which defects have been found in the manufacturing, operation and use of a product or facility, but phenomenon of defects is not reproduced in the subsequent investigation system or the cause of the defects cannot be identified. Recently, with the development of the fourth industrial revolution, convergence of hardware and software technologies in various fields is spreading to products such as aircraft, home appliances, and mobile devices, and the number of parts is increasing due to functional convergence. The application of such convergence technologies and the increase in the number of parts are major factors that lead to an increase in NDF phenomena. NDF phenomena have a significant negative impact on cost, reliability, and reliability for both manufacturers, service providers and operators. On the other hand, due to the nature of NDF phenomena such as difficult and intermittent cause identification and ambiguity in judgment, it is common to underestimate the cost of NDF or fail to take appropriate countermeasures in corporate management. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a methodology for estimating NDF costs by the PAF model which is a quality cost analysis model and ABC (Activity Based Costing) technique. The methodology of this study suggests a detailed procedure and the concept to accurately estimate the NDF costs, using ABC analysis, accounting system information, and IT system data. In addition case studies have validated the methodology. We think this could be a valid methodology to refer to when estimating the cost of other parts. And, it is meaningful to provide important judgment information in the decision-making process based on quality management and ultimately reduce NDF costs by visualizing them separately by major variable factors.

시뮬레이션과 퍼지비선형계획 및 신경망 기법을 이용한 경제적 절삭공정 모델 (Economic Machining Process Models Using Simulation, Fuzzy Non-Linear Programming and Neural-Networks)

  • 이영해;양병희;전성진
    • 대한산업공학회지
    • /
    • 제23권1호
    • /
    • pp.39-54
    • /
    • 1997
  • This paper presents four process models for machining processes : 1) an economical mathematical model of machining process, 2) a prediction model for surface roughness, 3) a decision model for fuzzy cutting conditions, and 4) a judgment model of machinability with automatic selection of cutting conditions. Each model was developed the economic machining, and these models were applied to theories widely studied in industrial engineering which are nonlinear programming, computer simulation, fuzzy theory, and neural networks. The results of this paper emphasize the human oriented domain of a nonlinear programming problem. From a viewpoint of the decision maker, fuzzy nonlinear programming modeling seems to be apparently more flexible, more acceptable, and more reliable for uncertain, ill-defined, and vague problem situations.

  • PDF

Seismic capacity evaluation of fire-damaged cabinet facility in a nuclear power plant

  • Nahar, Tahmina Tasnim;Rahman, Md Motiur;Kim, Dookie
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제53권4호
    • /
    • pp.1331-1344
    • /
    • 2021
  • This study is to evaluate the seismic capacity of the fire-damaged cabinet facility in a nuclear power plant (NPP). A prototype of an electrical cabinet is modeled using OpenSees for the numerical simulation. To capture the nonlinear behavior of the cabinet, the constitutive law of the material model under the fire environment is considered. The experimental record from the impact hammer test is extracted trough the frequency-domain decomposition (FDD) method, which is used to verify the effectiveness of the numerical model through modal assurance criteria (MAC). Assuming different temperatures, the nonlinear time history analysis is conducted using a set of fifty earthquakes and the seismic outputs are investigated by the fragility analysis. To get a threshold of intensity measure, the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is adopted for uncertainty reduction purposes. Finally, a capacity estimation model has been proposed through the investigation, which will be helpful for the engineer or NPP operator to evaluate the fire-damaged cabinet strength under seismic excitation. This capacity model is presented in terms of the High Confidence of Low Probability of Failure (HCLPF) point. The results are validated by the proper judgment and can be used to analyze the influences of fire on the electrical cabinet.

A two-phase model for usability evaluation of software user interfaces

  • Lim, Chee-Hwan;Park, Kyung-S.
    • 대한인간공학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 대한인간공학회 1997년도 추계학술대회논문집
    • /
    • pp.313-319
    • /
    • 1997
  • There is currently a focus on usability of interactive computer software. Previous research in software ergonomics has indicated the importance of evaluating the usability of software user interfaces. Software developers, interface designers or human foctors engineers often confront the task of comparative evaluation among systems, versions or interface designs. This study presents a structured model for comparative evaluation of user interface designs using usability criteria and measures. The proposed model consists of twomain phases : the prescreening phase ad the evaluation phase. The first phase involves expert judgment-based approach with qualitative criteria. The prescreening phase uses absolute measurement analytic hierarchy process to filter possible altermative interfaces to a reasonable subset. The second phase involves user-based approach such as usability testing, with quantitative criteria. The objective of the evaluation phase is to evaluate a subset of altermatives using objective measures. A set of criteria and measures for evaluating the usability of computer software designs is presented. The proposed model provides practitioners with a structured approach to select the best interface based on usability criteria and measures.

  • PDF

도로의 경사도에 따른 자율주행 가속도 추정 모델 (Autonomous Driving Acceleration Estimation Model According to the Slope of the Road)

  • 박경욱;허명선;오영철;한지형;정화현;유병용
    • 대한임베디드공학회논문지
    • /
    • 제16권6호
    • /
    • pp.285-292
    • /
    • 2021
  • Autonomous vehicles are divided into an upper controller that calculates control value through cognitive judgment and a lower controller that appropriately transmits its control value to an actuator. Here, the longitudinal control in a lower controller has a problem as the road slopes due to the property of the Acceleration sensor to output the acceleration as the slope of the device. Therefore, in this paper, a sigmoid function is proposed to determine the slope to compensate for this problem. Through the experiment, Checked performance by comparing the existing table model with the proposed model.

PROBABILISTIC MEASUREMENT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL COST ESTIMATES

  • Seokyon Hwang
    • 국제학술발표논문집
    • /
    • The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
    • /
    • pp.488-493
    • /
    • 2013
  • Accurate initial cost estimates are essential to effective management of construction projects where many decisions are made in the course of project management by referencing the estimates. In practice, the initial estimates are frequently derived from historical actual cost data, for which standard distribution-based techniques are widely applied in the construction industry to account for risk associated with the estimates. This approach assumes the same probability distribution of estimate errors for any selected estimates. This assumption, however, is not always satisfied. In order to account for the probabilistic nature of estimate errors, an alternative method for measuring the risk associated with a selected initial estimate is developed by applying the Bayesian probability approach. An application example include demonstrates how the method is implemented. A hypothesis test is conducted to reveal the robustness of the Bayesian probability model. The method is envisioned to effectively complement cost estimating methods that are currently in use by providing benefits as follows: (1) it effectively accounts for the probabilistic nature of errors in estimates; (2) it is easy to implement by using historical estimates and actual costs that are readily available in most construction companies; and (3) it minimizes subjective judgment by using quantitative data only.

  • PDF

An Evaluative Study of the Operational Safety of High-Speed Railway Stations Based on IEM-Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment Theory

  • Wang, Li;Jin, Chunling;Xu, Chongqi
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
    • /
    • 제16권5호
    • /
    • pp.1064-1073
    • /
    • 2020
  • The general situation of system composition and safety management of high-speed railway terminal is investigated and a comprehensive evaluation index system of operational security is established on the basis of railway laws and regulations and previous research results to evaluate the operational security management of the high-speed railway terminal objectively and scientifically. Index weight is determined by introducing interval eigenvalue method (IEM), which aims to reduce the dependence of judgment matrix on consistency test and improve judgment accuracy. Operational security status of a high-speed railway terminal in northwest China is analyzed using the traditional model of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and a general technique idea and references for the operational security evaluation of the high-speed railway terminal are provided. IEM is introduced to determine the weight of each index, overcomes shortcomings of traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and improves the accuracy and scientificity of the comprehensive evaluation. Risk factors, such as terrorist attacks, bad weather, and building fires, are intentionally avoided in the selection of evaluation indicators due to the complexity of risk factors in the operation of high-speed railway passenger stations and limitation of the length of the paper. However, such risk factors should be considered in the follow-up studies.

철도사상 사고위험도 평가 모델 개발에 관한 연구 (Development of Risk Evaluation Models for Railway Casualty Accidents)

  • 박찬우;김민수;왕종배;최돈범
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국철도학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.1499-1504
    • /
    • 2008
  • This study shows risk-based evaluation results of casualty accidents for passengers, railway staffs and MOP(Member of public) on the national railway in South Korea. To evaluate risk of these accidents, the hazardous events and the hazardous factors were identified by the review of the accident history and engineering interpretation of the accident behavior. A probability evaluation model for each hazardous event which was based on the accident appearance scenario was developed by using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique. The probability for each hazardous event was evaluated from the historical data and structured expert judgment. In addition, the severity assessment model utilized by the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) technique was composed of the accident progress scenarios. And the severity for the hazardous events was estimated using fatalities and weighted injuries. The risk assessment model developed can be effectively utilized in defining the risk reduction measures in connection with the option analysis.

  • PDF