• Title/Summary/Keyword: Energy Consumption Prediction

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Solar radiation forecasting using boosting decision tree and recurrent neural networks

  • Hyojeoung, Kim;Sujin, Park;Sahm, Kim
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.709-719
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    • 2022
  • Recently, as the importance of environmental protection has emerged, interest in new and renewable energy is also increasing worldwide. In particular, the solar energy sector accounts for the highest production rate among new and renewable energy in Korea due to its infinite resources, easy installation and maintenance, and eco-friendly characteristics such as low noise emission levels and less pollutants during power generation. However, although climate prediction is essential since solar power is affected by weather and climate change, solar radiation, which is closely related to solar power, is not currently forecasted by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Solar radiation prediction can be the basis for establishing a reasonable new and renewable energy operation plan, and it is very important because it can be used not only in solar power but also in other fields such as power consumption prediction. Therefore, this study was conducted for the purpose of improving the accuracy of solar radiation. Solar radiation was predicted by a total of three weather variables, temperature, humidity, and cloudiness, and solar radiation outside the atmosphere, and the results were compared using various models. The CatBoost model was best obtained by fitting and comparing the Boosting series (XGB, CatBoost) and RNN series (Simple RNN, LSTM, GRU) models. In addition, the results were further improved through Time series cross-validation.

The Method of Quantitative Analysis Based on Big Data Analysis for Explanatory Variables Containing Uncertainty of Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings - Focused on Apartment in Seoul Korea (주거용 건물의 에너지 실사용량의 불확실성을 내포한 설명변수 인자에 대한 빅데이터 분석 기반의 정량화 방법 - 서울지역의 공동주택을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Jun-Woo;Ahn, Seung-Ho;Park, Byung-Hee;Ko, Jung-Lim;Shin, Jee-Woong
    • KIEAE Journal
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.75-81
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The energy consumption of apartment units is affected by the lifestyle of the residents rather than system technology. In this study the numerical analysis of assumed energy consumption correlation factors with arbitrary value due to uncertainty. It is intended to be used as a simulation correction value which can be utilized as a predicted value of actual energy usage. The correction value of the simulation is set in the developed form of the existing process that derives the actual usage amount. The simulation results used in the existing evaluation system are used to maintain the useful value as the current system evaluation scale and predict the actual capacity. Method: The method of the study is to statistically analyze the data frames of all complexes capable of collecting the annual energy usage and to reconstruct the population by adding the variables that are expected to be correlated. Repeat the data frame configuration with variables that are assumed to be highly correlated with energy use levels. Determine whether there is correlation or not. The intensity of the external characteristics of the building equipment related to the energy consumption is presented as the quantitative value. Result: The correlation between electricity consumption and trading price since 2010 is analyzed as (Correlation coefficient 0.82). These results are higher than (Correlation coefficient 0.79), which is the correlation between residential area and trading price. This paper signifies the starting point of the methodology that broadens the field of view of verification of simulation feasibility limited to the prediction technique focused on the simulation tool and the element technology scope.The diversified phenomenon reproduction method develops the existing energy simulation method.It can be completed with a simulation methodology that can infer actual energy consumption.

Performance Prediction on the Application of a Ground-Source Heat Pump(GSHP) System in an Office Building (업무용 건물의 지열 히트펌프 시스템에 대한 성능 예측)

  • Sohn, Byonghu;Kwon, Han Sol
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.26 no.9
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    • pp.409-415
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    • 2014
  • Ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems have become an efficient alternative to conventional cooling and heating methods due to their higher energy efficiency. These systems use the ground as a heat source and the heat sink for cooling mode operation. The purpose of this simulation study is to evaluate the performance of a hypothetical GSHP system in an office building and to assess the energy saving effect against the existing HVAC systems (boiler and turbo chiller). We collected monthly energy consumption data from an actual office building ($32,488m^2$) in Seoul, and created a model to calculate the hourly building loads with EnergyPlus. In addition, we used GLD (Ground Loop Design) V8.0, a GSHP system design and simulation software tool, to evaluate hourly and monthly performance of the GSHP system. The energy consumption for the GSHP system based on the hourly simulation results were estimated to be 582.6 MWh/year for cooling and 593.2 MWh/year for heating, while those for the existing HVAC systems were found to be 674.5 MWh/year and 2,496.4 MWh/year, respectively. The seasonal performance factor (SPF) of the GSHP system was also calculated to be in the range of 3.37~4.28.

An Energy Consumption Prediction Model for Smart Factory Using Data Mining Algorithms (데이터 마이닝 기반 스마트 공장 에너지 소모 예측 모델)

  • Sathishkumar, VE;Lee, Myeongbae;Lim, Jonghyun;Kim, Yubin;Shin, Changsun;Park, Jangwoo;Cho, Yongyun
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.153-160
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    • 2020
  • Energy Consumption Predictions for Industries has a prominent role to play in the energy management and control system as dynamic and seasonal changes are occurring in energy demand and supply. This paper introduces and explores the steel industry's predictive models of energy consumption. The data used includes lagging and leading reactive power lagging and leading current variable, emission of carbon dioxide (tCO2) and load type. Four statistical models are trained and tested in the test set: (a) Linear Regression (LR), (b) Radial Kernel Support Vector Machine (SVM RBF), (c) Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and (d) Random Forest (RF). Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used for calculating regression model predictive performance. When using all the predictors, the best model RF can provide RMSE value 7.33 in the test set.

Prediction of Power Consumptions Based on Gated Recurrent Unit for Internet of Energy (에너지 인터넷을 위한 GRU기반 전력사용량 예측)

  • Lee, Dong-gu;Sun, Young-Ghyu;Sim, Is-sac;Hwang, Yu-Min;Kim, Sooh-wan;Kim, Jin-Young
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.120-126
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    • 2019
  • Recently, accurate prediction of power consumption based on machine learning techniques in Internet of Energy (IoE) has been actively studied using the large amount of electricity data acquired from advanced metering infrastructure (AMI). In this paper, we propose a deep learning model based on Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) as an artificial intelligence (AI) network that can effectively perform pattern recognition of time series data such as the power consumption, and analyze performance of the prediction based on real household power usage data. In the performance analysis, performance comparison between the proposed GRU-based learning model and the conventional learning model of Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) is described. In the simulation results, mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), forecast skill score, normalized root mean square error (RMSE), and normalized mean bias error (NMBE) are used as performance evaluation indexes, and we confirm that the performance of the prediction of the proposed GRU-based learning model is greatly improved.

A Study on Lighting Energy Prediction by Using Daylight during Daytime (자연채광 이용에 따른 조명에너지 예측방법에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Yu-Gun;Kim, Jeong-Tai
    • Solar Energy
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 1991
  • Lighting is one of the largest energy consumption in commercial building. For saving such lighting energy, integrated lighting system with daylight and artificial lighting has been suggested. In such system, perimeter zone can be illuminated by daylighting and the deep area of room by artificial lighting. So, the study aimed to develope of lighting energy prediction nomograph by turnning-off depth and lighting control systems during daytime. For the purpose, energy nomo-graph has been developed to apply to side-lit office building and the use and limitation of the nomograph has been discussed.

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Performance Analysis of a Hybrid Desiccant Cooling System for Residential Air Conditioning in the Seoul Region under the Climate Scenarios SSP5 and SSP1 (기후 시나리오 SSP5와 SSP1에서의 2100년 서울 지역에서의 여름철 주택 냉방을 위한 하이브리드 제습 냉방 시스템 성능 분석)

  • YULHO LEE;SUNGJIN PARK
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.773-784
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    • 2023
  • In this study, a comparative analysis between an electric heat pump cooling system and a hybrid desiccant cooling system is conducted. Desiccant cooling is a thermal driven system with potentially lower electric power consumption than electric heat pump. Hybrid desiccant cooling system simulation includes components such as a desiccant rotor, direct and indirect evaporative coolers, heat exchangers, fans, and a heat pump system. Using dynamic simulations by climate conditions, house cooling temperatures and power consumption for both systems are analyzed for 16 days period in the summer season under climate scenarios for the year 2100 prediction. The results reveal that the hybrid desiccant cooling system exhibits a 5-18% reduction in electric consumption compared to the heat pump system.

Hybrid Scheme of Data Cache Design for Reducing Energy Consumption in High Performance Embedded Processor (고성능 내장형 프로세서의 에너지 소비 감소를 위한 데이타 캐쉬 통합 설계 방법)

  • Shim, Sung-Hoon;Kim, Cheol-Hong;Jhang, Seong-Tae;Jhon, Chu-Shik
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.166-177
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    • 2006
  • The cache size tends to grow in the embedded processor as technology scales to smaller transistors and lower supply voltages. However, larger cache size demands more energy. Accordingly, the ratio of the cache energy consumption to the total processor energy is growing. Many cache energy schemes have been proposed for reducing the cache energy consumption. However, these previous schemes are concerned with one side for reducing the cache energy consumption, dynamic cache energy only, or static cache energy only. In this paper, we propose a hybrid scheme for reducing dynamic and static cache energy, simultaneously. for this hybrid scheme, we adopt two existing techniques to reduce static cache energy consumption, drowsy cache technique, and to reduce dynamic cache energy consumption, way-prediction technique. Additionally, we propose a early wake-up technique based on program counter to reduce penalty caused by applying drowsy cache technique. We focus on level 1 data cache. The hybrid scheme can reduce static and dynamic cache energy consumption simultaneously, furthermore our early wake-up scheme can reduce extra program execution cycles caused by applying the hybrid scheme.

A Study on Control and Monitoring System for Building Energy Management System

  • Oh, Jin-Seok;Bae, Soo-Young
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.335-340
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    • 2011
  • Building energy saving is one of the most important issues in these days. Control algorithm for energy saving should be designed properly to reduce power consumption in building. Recently, building energy system consists of hybrid energy system coupling with RE (Renewable Energy) source. In this paper, an optimum control algorithm for building energy saving is applied to BEMS (Building Energy Management System) by using an outdoor air temperature prediction strategy. BEMS coupling with renewable energy can control HVAC (Heating, Ventilating and Air-Conditioning) system effectively. In order to verify the effectiveness of building energy saving, BEMS was tested for several months at a laboratorial chamber with an air conditioner, fan and heater. To this end BEMS embedded control algorithm has been tested successfully.

Forecasted Weather based Weather Data File Generation Techniques for Real-time Building Simulation (실시간 빌딩 시뮬레이션을 위한 예측 기상 기반의 기상 데이터 파일 작성 기법)

  • Kwak, Young-Hoon;Jeong, Yong-Woo;Han, Hey-Sim;Jang, Cheol-Yong;Huh, Jung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.8-18
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    • 2014
  • Building simulation is used in a variety of sectors. In its early years, building simulation was mainly used in the design phase of a building for basic functions. Recently, however, it has become increasingly important during the operating phase, for commissioning and facility management. Most building simulation tools are used to estimate the thermal environment and energy consumption performance, and hence, they require the inputting of hourly weather data. A building simulation used for prediction should take into account the use of standard weather data. Weather data, which is used as input for a building simulation, plays a crucial role in the prediction performance, and hence, the selection of appropriate weather data is considered highly important. The present study proposed a technique for generating real-time weather data files, as opposed to the standard weather data files, which are required for running the building simulation. The forecasted weather elements provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the elements produced by the calculations, those utilizing the built-in functions of Energy Plus, and those that use standard values are combined for hourly input. The real-time weather data files generated using the technique proposed in the present study have been validated to compare with measured data and simulated data via EnergyPlus. The results of the present study are expected to increase the prediction accuracy of building control simulation results in the future.