• Journal of the Korean Society of Combustion
• /
• v.9 no.2
• /
• pp.18-29
• /
• 2004

Partial quenching structure of diffusion flames in a turbulent mixing layer has been investigated by the method of flame hole dynamics in oder to develope a prediction model for the phenomenon of turbulent flame lift off. The present study is specifically aimed to remedy the shortcoming of the stiff transition of the conditioned partial burning probability across the crossover condition by employing the level-set method which enables us to include the effect of finite flame edge propagation speed. In light of the level-set simulation results with two models for the edge propagation speed, the stabilizing conditions for turbulent lifted flame are suggested. The flame hole dynamics combined with the level-set method yields a temporally evolving turbulent extinction process and its partial quenching characteristics is compared with the results of the previous model employing the flame-hole random walk mapping based on three critical scalar dissipation rates. The probability to encounter reacting state, conditioned with scalar dissipation rate, demonstrated that the conditional probability has a rather gradual transition across the crossover scalar dissipation rate. Such a smooth transition is attributed to the finite response of the flame edge propagation.

• Korean Journal of Logic
• /
• v.15 no.2
• /
• pp.223-250
• /
• 2012

The reference-class problem is known as a problem that frequentism on the nature of probability is supposed to encounter. Alan H$\acute{a}$jek argues that other theories on the nature of probability also meet this problem inevitably and claims that we can resolve the problem by regarding conditional probabilities as primitive. In this paper I shall present an adequate way of understanding the reference-class problem and its philosophical implications by scrutinizing his argument. H$\acute{a}$jek's claim is to be classified into the following two: (i) probability is relative to its reference class and (ii) what is known as the 'Ratio' analysis of conditional probability is wrong. H$\acute{a}$jek believes that these two are to be closely related but I believe these two should be separated. Moreover, I shall claim that we should accept the former but not the latter. Finally, regarding the identity condition of reference class I shall distinguish the extensional criterion from the non-extensional one. I shall claim that the non-extensional criterion is the right one for the identity condition of reference class by arguing that the reference-class problem should be regarded as an instance of the qua-problem.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
• /
• v.42 no.1
• /
• pp.128-139
• /
• 2017

Vehicular Ad hoc Network (VANET) is one of technologies to realize various ITS services for safe driving and efficient traffic control. However, data delivery in VANETs is complicated due to high mobility and unreliable wireless transmission. In this paper, we develop a novel forwarding scheme to deliver packets in a reliable and timely manner. The proposed forwarding scheme uses traffic statistics to predict the encounter of two vehicles, and optimize its forwarding decision by taking into consideration the probability of successful transmission between them at the encounter place. We evaluate our scheme through simulations and show that our proposed scheme provides reliable data delivery in VANETs.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.22 no.2
• /
• pp.120-125
• /
• 2010

A Monte-Carlo simulation method is proposed which can take uncertainties of scale and location parameters of Gumbel distribution into account straightforwardly in evaluating significant design wave heights with respect to return periods. The uncertainties of design wave heights may directly depend on the amounts of uncertainties of scale parameter and those distributions may be followed by Gumbel distribution. In case of that the expected values of maximum significant wave height during lifetime of structures are considered to be the design wave heights, more uncertainties are happened than in those evaluated according to return periods with encounter probability concepts. In addition, reliability analyses on the armor units are carried out to investigate into the effects of the uncertainties of design wave heights on the probability of failure. The failure probabilities of armor units to 5% damage level for 50 return periods are evaluated and compared according to the methods of taking uncertainties of design wave heights into account. It is found that the probabilities of failure may be distributed into wide ranges of bounds when the uncertainties of design wave heights are assumed to be same as those of annual maximum significant wave heights.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
• /
• v.16 no.2
• /
• pp.135-147
• /
• 1990

A nuclear power plant can be viewed as a large complex man-machine system where high system reliability is obtained by ensuring that sub-systems are designed to operate at a very high level of performance. The chance of severe accident involving at least partial core-melt is very low but once it happens the consequence is very catastrophic. The prediction of risk in low probability, high-risk incidents must be examined in the contest of general engineering knowledge and operational experience. Engineering knowledge forms part of the prior information that must be quantified and then updated by statistical evidence gathered from operational experience. Recently, Bayesian procedures have been used to estimate rate of accident and to predict future risks. The Bayesian procedure has advantages in that it efficiently incorporates experts opinions and, if properly applied, it adaptively updates the model parameters such as the rate or probability of accidents. But at the same time it has the disadvantages of computational complexity. The predictive distribution for the time to next incident can not always be expected to end up with a nice closed form even with conjugate priors. Thus we often encounter a numerical integration problem with high dimensions to obtain a predictive distribution, which is practically unsolvable for a model that involves many parameters. In order to circumvent this difficulty, we propose a method of approximation that essentially breaks down a problem involving many integrations into several repetitive steps so that each step involves only a small number of integrations.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• v.38 no.3
• /
• pp.165-173
• /
• 2021

Apophis is a near-Earth object with a diameter of approximately 340 m, which will come closer to the Earth than a geostationary orbit in 2029, offering a unique opportunity for characterizing the object during the upcoming encounter. Therefore, Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute has a plan to propose a space mission to explore the Apophis asteroid using scientific instruments such as a laser altimeter. In this study, we evaluate the performance metrics of a laser altimeter using a pseudorandom noise modulation technique for the Apophis mission, in terms of detection probability and ranging accuracy. The closed-form expression of detection probability is provided using the cross correlation between the received pulse trains and pseudo-random binary sequence. And the new ranging accuracy model using Gaussian error propagation is also derived by considering the sampling rate. The operation range is significantly limited by thermal noise rather than background noise, owing to not only the low power laser but also the avalanche photodiode in the analog mode operation. However, it is demonstrated from the numerical simulation that the laser altimeter can achieve the ranging performance required for a proximity operation mode, which employs commercially available components onboard CubeSat-scale satellites for optical communications.

• Journal of Photoscience
• /
• v.10 no.3
• /
• pp.225-229
• /
• 2003

The fluorescence quenching of 5-methyl-3-phenyl-2-[s-oxadiazol-2'-thionen5'-yl] indole by carbon tetrachloride ($CCl_4$) and aniline in different solvents viz., dioxane, benzene, toluene, methanol, propanol has been carried out at room temperature to understand the role of quenching mechanisms. The Stern-Volmer plots have been found to be linear. As probability of quenching per encounter 'p' is less than unity, and the activation energy for quenching 'E$_{a}$' is greater than the activation energy of diffusion 'E$_{d}$', it is inferred that the fluorescence of quenching mechanism is not due to material diffusion alone.e.e.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 1992.10a
• /
• pp.541-547
• /
• 1992

The phased array antenna has the ability to perform adaptive sampling by directing the radar beam without inertia in any direction. The adaptive sampling capability of the phased array antenna allows each sampling time interval to be varied for each target, depending on the acceleration of each target at any time. In this paper we design a three-dimensional adaptive tracking algorithm for the phased array radar system with a given set of measurement parameters. The tracking algorithm avoids taking unnecessarily frequent samples, while keeping the angular prediction error within a fraction of antenna beamwidth so that the probability of detection will not be degraded during a track update illuminations. In our algorithm, the target model and the sampling rate are selected depending on the target range and the target maneuver status which is determined by a maneuver detector. A detailed simulation is conducted to test the validity of our tracking algorithm for encounter geometries under various conditions of maneuver.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.13 no.1
• /
• pp.61-72
• /
• 2006

When using the well-known variance estimator of Sen (1953) and Yates and Grundy (1953) in inclusion probability proportional to size sampling, we often encounter the problems due to the calculation of the joint probabilities. Sarndal (1996) and Knottnerus (2003) proposed alternative strategies for variance estimation to avoid those problems in the traditional method. We discuss some of practical issues that arise when they are used. Also, we describe the traditional strategy using a sampling procedure available in a statistical software. It would be one of the attractive choices for design-based variance estimation.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.6 no.3
• /
• pp.947-956
• /
• 1999

We define a crossing point $x_0$ such that f(x)$\geq$g(x) for x$\leq$$x_0$ and f(x)$\leq$g(x) for x>$x_0$ where f and g are probability density functions. We may encounter suchy situation when we compare two histograms from two independent observations. For example two contingency tables where initially admitted students and actually enrolled students are classified according to their high school ranking may show such situation, In this paper we consider maximum likelihood estimation of cell probabilities when a crossing point exists, We first assume a known crossing point and find an estimator. The estimation procedure for the case of unknown crossing point is just a straightforward extension. A real data is analyzed for an illustrative purpose.