• Title/Summary/Keyword: Employment Decision

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A Study on the J. Calvin's thought of Economy and Management and its modern Application - with a Application Viewpoint of Distribution & Logistics Sectors - (존 칼빈의 경제, 경영 사상과 현대적 적용에 대한 연구 - 유통, 물류에의 적용 관점 -)

  • Kim, Hong-Seop
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.147-169
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    • 2015
  • Our society has been changed so rapidly and we have achieved industrialization and democratization swiftly. On our Economic growth and democratization, it is appraised that Christian Thought and western Capitalism thoughts have been one of the important factors. John Calvin, well known Reformer and thinker of Protestant, as M. Weber assessed, contributed greatly to the progress of Capitalism. He was a Religion Reformer as M. Luther and especially a thinker and man of deed, who affected large areas of human life such as Religion, Economy, Society and Politics. Calvin understood Economy is the main issue of theology and Economic activities can be a position which may restore the correct relationship of God and Man. This Paper aimed to survey, synthesize and systemize the Economy and Management thought of J. Calvin. On these changing current society, it surveyed if His thoughts that has long history, can be applicable or not and Where and How it may. Calvin's Thought not only on his age caused important changes and Reformation but now suggests critical milestones. His Thoughts of Love, Justice, and Fairness based on the Bible have been evaluated as the universal truth and important criteria. Until nowadays his Philosophy has composed critical Principles of decision making rules of Economy and Management and National policies. Especially today, when economy has been more emphasized as a center of our lives, His Thought suggests momentous directions on various Human Life such as Justice and Fairness, deepening of gap between poor and rich, expansion of conflicts among social classes, employment and wages, freedom of markets and its balance, and public good of land use. Reviewing Calvin's Economy and Management thoughts as meaningful basis on the our and world Economy which became worse caused by world monetary crisis and Europe financial crisis that aroused by world Economy globalization and expansion of neo-liberalism, this Paper suggested some future directions. And for the practical sectors, Distribution and Logistics, it proposed some issues and Directions, considering the impacts of His thoughts on the Industries. Nevertheless it can deliver some contributions, as a literature research, it reveals some limitations that it may contain lacking of practical investigations and cases on economy and management fields. In the future, more detailed and deeper research on the practical and situations of economy and management shall be needed.

Perceptions of Caregivers and Medical Staff toward DNR and AD (Do Not Resuscitate (DNR)와 Advance Directives (AD)에 대한 환자 보호자와 의료인의 인식)

  • Lee, Sun Ra;Shin, Dong-Soo;Choi, Yong-Jun
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.66-74
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: This study is aimed to investigate perceptions of caregivers and medical staff toward do not resuscitate (DNR) and advance directives (AD). Methods: Participants were 141 caregivers and 272 medical staff members from five general hospitals. A questionnaire used for the study consisted of 20 items: 14 about DNR perceptions, three about AD, one each for age, gender and employment. Results: Both medical staff and caregivers strongly recognized the need for DNR and AD, and the level of recognition was higher with medical staff than caregivers (DNR ${\chi}^2=44.56$, P=0.001; AD ${\chi}^2=16.23$, P=0.001). The main reason for the recognition was to alleviate sufferings of patients in the terminal phase. In most cases, DNR and AD were filled out when patients with terminal conditions were admitted, and patients made the decisions by consulting with their guardians. Medical staff better recognized the need and for growing demand for guidelines for the DNR and AD decision making process than caregivers (${\chi}^2=7.41$, P=0.0025). Conclusion: This study showed that patients highly rely on their caregivers when making decisions for DNR and AD. Thus, it is important that patients and caregivers are provided with objective information about the decisions. Since participants' strong support for DNR and AD was mainly aimed at alleviating patients' suffering, further study is needed in the association with hospice care. Medical staff also needs to understand the different views held by caregivers and fully consider the disparity when informing patients/caregivers to make the DNR and AD decisions.

The Outcome of the 6th ICAO Worldwide Air Transport Conference and Fair Competition Policy in International Air Transport (국제항공운송의 최근 동향과 항공운송의 공정경쟁정책 -ICAO 제6차 세계항공운송회의 결과를 중심으로-)

  • Shin, Dong-Chun
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.97-114
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    • 2013
  • The 6th Worldwide Air Transport Conference was held in Montreal in March 2013 under the auspices of ICAO. This conference, which has been held every ten years, is dealing with virtually every issue of international air transport, and aiming at updating ICAO policy in order to ensure long-term growth of international civil aviation. Last conference which took place in 2003 focused on the liberalization of air transport, and the 6th conference shifted its focus from whether to push for liberalization, to how to implement it. The main agenda items for the 6th conference was liberalization, safeguards, ownership, fair competition, airports and air navigation facilities, charges, and ICAO policy. The liberalization, and in particular progressive liberalization has been a main theme over the past decades. In the process leading to liberalization, there needs to be the expansion of market access, easing regulation on ownership and control of airlines. Furthermore, the provision of enough infrastructure such as airport and air navigation facilities may be contributing factor to remove impediments to liberalization. However, out of concern as for undermining interests of consumer and the weak, when liberalization is proceeding in a sudden and radical manner, there should be safeguards so as to ensure market participation by developing countries, consumer protection, and economical and transparent decision on taxes and charges. Fair competition which differs from promoting competition in the market, is a policy in order to protect the weak players and consumers from monopoly and oligopoly. The Korean delegation submitted 3 WPs (WP/85, 86 and 87) and 1 IP, and presented WPs, at the conference, which were a lot compared with previous occasions. A paradigm shift was emphasized to expedite the process of liberalization at the 6th conference. The reality is that with many previous recommendations to stress the importance of liberalization, and to urge States to change their attitudes, the pace of the liberalization has been very slow and staggering. The liberalization of air transport will contribute to the growth of air transport and related industry, to create new employment, promoting tourism and regional development, and further to facilitating mutual understanding and exchange, which will also lead to making a barrier-free world. In this context, it is expected that the next conference will also evaluate the on-going process of liberalization.

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A Survey on the Understanding of Breast-feeding in Pregnant Woman (임신시 모유수유에 대한 인식조사)

  • Seo, Jeong Wan;Kim, Yong Joo;Lee, Kee Hyoung;Kim, Jae Young;Sim, Jay G;Kim, Hae Soon;Ko, Jae Sung;Bae, Sun Hwan;Park, Hye Sook;Park, Beom Soo
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.575-587
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    • 2002
  • Objective : To investigate the understanding of breast-feeding in pregnant woman and the proper way of encouraging breast-feeding. Methods : Each questionnaire included items about demographic characteristics and the understanding of breast-feeding. The questionnaires were filled up by pregnant women visiting obstetric clinics in Seoul and its vicinities, Busan, Choongjoo and Chungjoo from July 2001 to August 2001. One thousand, two hundred ninety questionnaires were analysed by Chi square tests and multiple logistic regressions. Results : The majority of pregnant women(87.4%) planned breast-feeding. Forty three percent of them had plans to breast-feed for 4-6 months. There were no differences in the level of education, the family size and the source of information about breast-feeding in planning to breast-feed (P>0.05). The main reasons for not choosing to breast-feed were returns to work(41.3%), previous failures of breast-feeding(17.4%), concerns about insufficient amount of breast milk(10.9%), breast and nipple problems(10.3%) and maternal illness(9.4%). The average score on the test of the understanding about breast-feeding was 59.7/100. The average scores on the understanding about the methods and advantages of breast-feeding were 45.3/100 and 86.1/100, respectively. The maternal status of employment, previous history of breast-feeding, the time of decision to breastfeed, person advocating breast-feeding and the understanding on the advantages of breast-feeding were significant determinant factors in planning to breast-feed(P<0.05). Conclusion : Pediatricians should take steps to make an effort to increase the breast-feeding rate and to encourage breast-feeding by timely education. Beyond the medical field, political and social supports for breast-feeding are urgently needed.

WHICH INFORMATION MOVES PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM DAYS WITH DIVIDEND AND EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS AND INSIDER TRADING

  • Kim, Chan-Wung;Lee, Jae-Ha
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.233-265
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    • 1996
  • We examine the impact of public and private information on price movements using the thirty DJIA stocks and twenty-one NASDAQ stocks. We find that the standard deviation of daily returns on information days (dividend announcement, earnings announcement, insider purchase, or insider sale) is much higher than on no-information days. Both public information matters at the NYSE, probably due to masked identification of insiders. Earnings announcement has the greatest impact for both DJIA and NASDAQ stocks, and there is some evidence of positive impact of insider asle on return volatility of NASDAQ stocks. There has been considerable debate, e.g., French and Roll (1986), over whether market volatility is due to public information or private information-the latter gathered through costly search and only revealed through trading. Public information is composed of (1) marketwide public information such as regularly scheduled federal economic announcements (e.g., employment, GNP, leading indicators) and (2) company-specific public information such as dividend and earnings announcements. Policy makers and corporate insiders have a better access to marketwide private information (e.g., a new monetary policy decision made in the Federal Reserve Board meeting) and company-specific private information, respectively, compated to the general public. Ederington and Lee (1993) show that marketwide public information accounts for most of the observed volatility patterns in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets. Company-specific public information is explored by Patell and Wolfson (1984) and Jennings and Starks (1985). They show that dividend and earnings announcements induce higher than normal volatility in equity prices. Kyle (1985), Admati and Pfleiderer (1988), Barclay, Litzenberger and Warner (1990), Foster and Viswanathan (1990), Back (1992), and Barclay and Warner (1993) show that the private information help by informed traders and revealed through trading influences market volatility. Cornell and Sirri (1992)' and Meulbroek (1992) investigate the actual insider trading activities in a tender offer case and the prosecuted illegal trading cased, respectively. This paper examines the aggregate and individual impact of marketwide information, company-specific public information, and company-specific private information on equity prices. Specifically, we use the thirty common stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and twenty one National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) common stocks to examine how their prices react to information. Marketwide information (public and private) is estimated by the movement in the Standard and Poors (S & P) 500 Index price for the DJIA stocks and the movement in the NASDAQ Composite Index price for the NASDAQ stocks. Divedend and earnings announcements are used as a subset of company-specific public information. The trading activity of corporate insiders (major corporate officers, members of the board of directors, and owners of at least 10 percent of any equity class) with an access to private information can be cannot legally trade on private information. Therefore, most insider transactions are not necessarily based on private information. Nevertheless, we hypothesize that market participants observe how insiders trade in order to infer any information that they cannot possess because insiders tend to buy (sell) when they have good (bad) information about their company. For example, Damodaran and Liu (1993) show that insiders of real estate investment trusts buy (sell) after they receive favorable (unfavorable) appraisal news before the information in these appraisals is released to the public. Price discovery in a competitive multiple-dealership market (NASDAQ) would be different from that in a monopolistic specialist system (NYSE). Consequently, we hypothesize that NASDAQ stocks are affected more by private information (or more precisely, insider trading) than the DJIA stocks. In the next section, we describe our choices of the fifty-one stocks and the public and private information set. We also discuss institutional differences between the NYSE and the NASDAQ market. In Section II, we examine the implications of public and private information for the volatility of daily returns of each stock. In Section III, we turn to the question of the relative importance of individual elements of our information set. Further analysis of the five DJIA stocks and the four NASDAQ stocks that are most sensitive to earnings announcements is given in Section IV, and our results are summarized in Section V.

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Analysis of Industrial Linkage Effects for Farm Land Base Development Project -With respect to the Hwangrak Benefited Area with Reservoir - (농업생산기반 정비사업의 산업연관효과분석 -황락 저수지지구를 중심으로-)

  • Lim, Jae Hwan;Han, Seok Ho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.77-93
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    • 1999
  • This study is aiming at identifying the foreward and backward lingkage effects of the farm land base development project. Korean Government has continuously carried out farmland base development projets including the integrated agricultural development projects. large and medium scale irrigation projects and the comprehensive development of the four big river basin including tidal land reclamation and estuary dam construction for the all weather farming since 1962. the starting year of the five year economic development plans. Consequently the irrigation rate of paddy fields in Korea reached to 75% in 1998 and to escalate the irrigation rate, the Government had procured heavy investment fund from IBRD. IMF and OECF etc. To cope with the agricultural problems like trade liberalization in accordance with WTO policy, the government has tried to solve such problems as new farmland base development policy, preservation of the farmland and expansion of farmland to meet self-sufficiency of foods in the future. Especially, farmland base development projects have been challanged to environmental and ecological problems in evaluating economic benefits and costs where the value of non-market goods have not been included in those. Up to data, in evaluating benefits and costs of the projects, farmland base development projects have been confined to direct incremental value of farm products and it's related costs. Therefore the projects'efficiency as a decision making criteria has shown the low level of economic efficiencies. In estimating economic efficiencies including Leontiefs input-output analysis of the projects could not be founded in Korea at present. Accordingly this study is aimed at achieving and identifying the following objectives. (1) To identify the problems related to the financial supports of the Government in implementing the proposed projects. (2) To estimated backward and foreward linkage effects of the proposed project from the view point of national economy as a whole. To achieve the objectives, Hwangrak benefited area with reservoir which is located in Seosan-haemi Disticts, Chungnam Province were selected as a case study. The main results of the study are summarized as follows : a. The present value of investment and O & M cost were amounted to 3,510million won and the present value of the value added in related industries was estimated at 5.913million won for the period of economic life of 70 years. b. The total discounted value of farm products in the concerned industries derived by the project was estimated at 10,495million won and the foreward and backward linkage effects of the project were amounted to 6,760 and 5,126million won respectively. c. The total number of employment opportunities derived from the related industries for the period of project life were 3,136 man/year. d. Farmland base development projects were showed that the backward linkage effects estimated by index of the sensitivity dispersion were larger than the forward linkage effect estimated by index of the power of dispersion. On the other hand, the forward linkage effect of rice production value during project life was larger than the backward linkage effect e. The rate of creation of new job opportunity by means of implementing civil engineering works were shown high in itself rather than any other fields. and the linkage effects of production of the project investment were mainly derived from the metal and non-metal fields. f. According to the industrial linkage effect analysis, farmland base development projects were identified economically feasible from the view point of national economy as a whole even though the economic efficiencies of the project was outstandingly decreased owing to delaying construction period and increasing project costs.

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The Infuence of Venture Club Activity by University Student's Goal-Oriented Behavior Model on Self-determination and Startup Intention: Focused on the Medaiation Effects of Big 5 (벤처동아리활동 대학생의 목표 지향적 행동모델이 자기결정성 및 창업의지에 미치는 영향: 성격 5요인의 매개효과)

  • Park, Hwa Soon;Byun, Sang Hea
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.79-93
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    • 2021
  • The question of why do you want to start a "start?" Is the most basic step in trying to do something. In other words, previous studies have shown that the degree of confidence in an individual's decision affects the setting of a specific purpose. Based on this, this study aims to provide basic data for deriving the direction of entrepreneurship education in college students by analyzing the effects of goal-oriented behavioral model on college students' self-determination and intention to start a business through the 5 factor model. To achieve the purpose of the study, a self-report questionnaire was conducted from October 01 to November 11, 2019 for university students attending located in Gyeonggi-do, Seoul. A total of 150 questionnaires were distributed, and 125 parts were used for the final analysis, except 25 parts with insincere responses or errors. Data were analyzed using SPSS Win 24, and reliability, validity analysis, frequency analysis, One-way ANOVA and regression analysis were performed, and three-step regression analysis and Sobel verification were performed for mediating effects. The summary of the study is as follows. First, the influence of university students' goal-oriented behavioral model on self-determination showed that attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral controls had statistically significant positive effects, and positive and negative expectations were statistically significant. Did not affect. Therefore, the higher the attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control, the higher the university students' self-determination. Second, the influence of college students' goal-oriented behavioral model on the intention to start a business was as follows.). As a result, the higher the perceived behavioral control and positive expectation, the higher the intention to start up. Third, regression model 1 showed that the behavioral control and positive expectation sentiment among the goal-oriented behavioral model had a significant positive influence on the college students' intention to start a business. Affected. Regression model II added the parameters of the 5 factor model, which increased 2.5% of explanatory power than the first regression model. Perceived behavioral control and positive expectations had a statistically significant positive effect, negative expectations had a statistically significant negative effect, and among the 5 factor model, openness had a statistically significant positive (+) Affected. From these results, it can be seen that the Big Five personality factors have a mediating effect on the relationship between goal-oriented behavior model and intention to start up. This study confirmed that the goal-oriented behavioral model of college students is an important variable in implementing self-determination and intention to start a business. In addition, by using his Big 5 personality factors as positive feedback, he has proved to play an important role by identifying the mediation role that can be set, planned and utilized to plan and achieve his life. The result of this study is that college students are interested in the intention of individual start-ups, so they are not freed from difficult employment difficulties. It is intended to provide basic data useful in the age of creation of government.

The Effect of AD Noises Caused by AD Model Selection on Brand Awareness and Brand Attitudes (광고 모델 관련 광고 노이즈가 브랜드 인지도와 브랜드 태도에 미치는 영향)

  • Chung, Jai-Hak;Lee, Sang-Mi
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.89-114
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    • 2008
  • Most of the extant studies on communication effects have been devoted to the typical issue, "what types of communication activities are more effective for brand awareness or brand attitudes?" However, little research has addressed another question on communication decisions, "what makes communication activities less effective?" Our study focuses on factors negatively influenced on the efficiency of communication activities, especially of Advertising. Some studies have introduced concepts closely related to our topic such as consumer confusion, brand confusion, or belief confusion. Studies on product belief confusion have found some factors misleading consumers to misunderstand the physical features of products. Studies on brand confusion have uncovered factors making consumers confused on brand names. Studies on advertising confusion have tested the effects of ad models' employed by many other firms for different products on communication efficiency. We address a new concept, Ad noises, which are any factors interfering with consumers exposed to a particular advertisement in understanding messages provided by advertisements. The objective of this study is to understand the effects of ad noises caused by ad models on brand awareness and brand attitude. There are many different types of AD noises. Particularly, we study the effects of AD noises generated from ad model selection decision. Many companies want to employ celebrities as AD models while the number of celebrities who command a high degree of public and media attention are limited. Inevitably, several firms have been adopting the same celebrities as their AD models for different products. If the same AD model is adopted for TV commercials for different products, consumers exposed to those TV commercials are likely to fail to be aware of the target brand due to interference of TV commercials, for other products, employing the same AD model. This is an ad noise caused by employing ad models who have been exposed to consumers in other advertisements, which is the first type of ad noises studied in this research. Another type of AD noises is related to the decision of AD model replacement for the same product advertising. Firms sometimes launch another TV commercial for the same products. Some firms employ the same AD model for the new TV commercial for the same product and other firms employ new AD models for the new TV commercials for the same product. The typical problem with the replacement of AD models is the possibility of interfering with consumers in understanding messages of the TV commercial due to the dissimilarity of the old and new AD models. We studied the effects of these two types of ad noises, which are the typical factors influencing on the effect of communication: (1) ad noises caused by employing ad models who have been exposed to consumers in other advertisements and (2) ad noises caused by changing ad models with different images for same products. First, we measure the negative influence of AD noises on brand awareness and attitudes, in order to provide the importance of studying AD noises. Furthermore, our study unveiled the mediating conditions(variables) which can increase or decrease the effects of ad noises on brand awareness and attitudes. We study the effects of three mediating variables for ad noises caused by employing ad models who have been exposed to consumers in other advertisements: (1) the fit between product image and AD model image, (2) similarity between AD model images in multiple TV commercials employing the same AD model, and (3) similarity between products of which TV commercial employed the same AD model. We analyze the effects of another three mediating variables for ad noises caused by changing ad models with different images for same products: (1) the fit of old and new AD models for the same product, (2) similarity between AD model images in old and new TV commercials for the same product, and (3) concept similarity between old and new TV commercials for the same product. We summarized the empirical results from a field survey as follows. The employment of ad models who have been used in advertisements for other products has negative effects on both brand awareness and attitudes. our empirical study shows that it is possible to reduce the negative effects of ad models used for other products by choosing ad models whose images are relevant to the images of target products for the advertisement, by requiring ad models of images which are different from those of ad models in other advertisements, or by choosing ad models who have been shown in advertisements for other products which are not similar to the target product. The change of ad models for the same product advertisement can positively influence on brand awareness but positively on brand attitudes. Furthermore, the effects of ad model change can be weakened or strengthened depending on the relevancy of new ad models, the similarity of previous and current ad models, and the consistency of the previous and current ad messages.

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A Conceptual Review of the Transaction Costs within a Distribution Channel (유통경로내의 거래비용에 대한 개념적 고찰)

  • Kwon, Young-Sik;Mun, Jang-Sil
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2012
  • This paper undertakes a conceptual review of transaction cost to broaden the understanding of the transaction cost analysis (TCA) approach. More than 40 years have passed since Coase's fundamental insight that transaction, coordination, and contracting costs must be considered explicitly in explaining the extent of vertical integration. Coase (1937) forced economists to identify previously neglected constraints on the trading process to foster efficient intrafirm, rather than interfirm, transactions. The transaction cost approach to economic organization study regards transactions as the basic units of analysis and holds that understanding transaction cost economy is central to organizational study. The approach applies to determining efficient boundaries, as between firms and markets, and to internal transaction organization, including employment relations design. TCA, developed principally by Oliver Williamson (1975,1979,1981a) blends institutional economics, organizational theory, and contract law. Further progress in transaction costs research awaits the identification of critical dimensions in which transaction costs differ and an examination of the economizing properties of alternative institutional modes for organizing transactions. The crucial investment distinction is: To what degree are transaction-specific (non-marketable) expenses incurred? Unspecialized items pose few hazards, since buyers can turn toalternative sources, and suppliers can sell output intended for one order to other buyers. Non-marketability problems arise when specific parties' identities have important cost-bearing consequences. Transactions of this kind are labeled idiosyncratic. The summarized results of the review are as follows. First, firms' distribution decisions often prompt examination of the make-or-buy question: Should a marketing activity be performed within the organization by company employees or contracted to an external agent? Second, manufacturers introducing an industrial product to a foreign market face a difficult decision. Should the product be marketed primarily by captive agents (the company sales force and distribution division) or independent intermediaries (outside sales agents and distribution)? Third, the authors develop a theoretical extension to the basic transaction cost model by combining insights from various theories with the TCA approach. Fourth, other such extensions are likely required for the general model to be applied to different channel situations. It is naive to assume the basic model appliesacross markedly different channel contexts without modifications and extensions. Although this study contributes to scholastic research, it is limited by several factors. First, the theoretical perspective of TCA has attracted considerable recent interest in the area of marketing channels. The analysis aims to match the properties of efficient governance structures with the attributes of the transaction. Second, empirical evidence about TCA's basic propositions is sketchy. Apart from Anderson's (1985) study of the vertical integration of the selling function and John's (1984) study of opportunism by franchised dealers, virtually no marketing studies involving the constructs implicated in the analysis have been reported. We hope, therefore, that further research will clarify distinctions between the different aspects of specific assets. Another important line of future research is the integration of efficiency-oriented TCA with organizational approaches that emphasize specific assets' conceptual definition and industry structure. Finally, research of transaction costs, uncertainty, opportunism, and switching costs is critical to future study.

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DEVELOPMENT OF STATEWIDE TRUCK TRAFFIC FORECASTING METHOD BY USING LIMITED O-D SURVEY DATA (한정된 O-D조사자료를 이용한 주 전체의 트럭교통예측방법 개발)

  • 박만배
    • Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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    • 1995.02a
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    • pp.101-113
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    • 1995
  • The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

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