• Title/Summary/Keyword: Empirical Probability

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A Stochastic Combat Simulation Model with Heterogeneous Weapon Systems (확률과정을 따르는 혼합 무기체계 전투시뮬레이션 모델)

  • Chung, Yong-Hun;Hong, Yoon-Gee
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2009
  • The real data obtained from field exercises has a crucial role in modeling and simulation of a combat or a wargame. This becomes an important input especially in analyzing weapon systems realization. Many existing models have been using the mean value of the time between each fire. The firing data can be incorporated into a known probability distribution or used directly as an empirical distribution. Data of field exercises are very useful instead of the real combat outcomes. This study finds a new modeling approach and techniques to compare the data with the previously generated outcomes. This fundamental research work will continue to consider more of the various weapon systems, the sizes, and other tactical aspects.

Analyses of the Effects of Government Export Promotion Programs on Export Performance: Empirical Evidence for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Korea

  • Beom-Cheol Cin;Kuk-Hyun Choe
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.39-55
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study empirically examines the effect of the Korean government export promotion program (EPP) on small and medium-sized enterprise (SMEs) export performance using firm-level data. Unlike most previous studies that investigated some specific samples of firms, this study analyzes a vast amount of SME data of the Korean Small and Medium Business Administration over the period 2005 to 2008. Design/methodology - An endogeneity problem arises when a firm's probability of being selected is correlated with the likelihood of successfully implementing EPPs. To control for the endogeneity of the EPPs in a relatively short-period sample, we employ 2-Stage Residual Inclusion (2SRI) RE-Tobit and bivariate Tobit procedure. Findings - Analyses show that Korean government EPPs have positive significant effects on SME exports. Empirical results also show that SME export activities are significantly encouraged by R&D investment and capital intensity, but not obviously by labor productivity. Originality/value - This study provides evidence that SME capital intensity, R&D investment, and the number of workers are significant determinants to SME exporting activities, whereas per worker labor cost and employee education are not. These results imply that even for SMEs, firm size is a major factor in promoting exporting activities.

The Impact of Creativity and Innovativeness on Digital Entrepreneurship: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh

  • AKHTER, Ayeasha;KARIM, Md. Mobarak;ISLAM, K. M. Anwarul
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.77-82
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    • 2022
  • In Bangladesh, developing students' entrepreneurial intentions have received a lot of attention because of the country's current employment predicament and shifting labor market. Entrepreneurs play a critical part in a country's economic development. This study aims to examine the impact of creativity and innovation on students' intentions toward online entrepreneurship in Bangladesh. The participants in this study were Bangladeshi university students. Based on pre-tested constructs, a survey questionnaire was created. Convenience sampling, which is a common type of non-probability sampling, was used to choose participants for the sample. A total of 150 students from the public university took part in the survey, with 120 replies being accepted as complete, resulting in an 80 percent response rate. Hence, the sample size is 120. Internal consistency was determined using Cronbach's alpha, while correlation and hypothesis tests were analyzed using SPSS version 26.0. The results reveal that creativity and innovation have a statistically significant and positive impact on students' intentions to engage in online entrepreneurship. These two independent factors explained 75% of the variance in intention to engage in online entrepreneurship, resulting in empirical findings and solid information in the present body of knowledge. The study concludes with a conclusion and research implications for the future.

Probability Density Function of the Tidal Residuals in the Korean Coast (한반도 연안 조위편차의 확률밀도함수)

  • Cho, Hong-Yeon;Kang, Ju-Whan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2012
  • Tidal residual is being an important factor by the influence of the climate change in terms of the coastal safety and defense. It is one of the most important factor for the determination of the reference sea level in order to check the safety and performance of the coastal structures in company with the typhoon intensity variation. The probability density function (pdf) of tidal residuals in the Korean coasts have a non-ignorable skewness and high kurtosis. It is highly restricted to the application of the normal pdf assumption as an approximated pdf of tidal residuals. In this study, the pdf of tidal residuals estimated using the Kernel function is suggested as a more reliable and accurate pdf of tidal residuals than the normal function. This suggested pdf shows a good agreement with the empirical cumulative distribution function and histogram. It also gives the more accurate estimation result on the extreme values in comparison with the results based on the normal pdf assumption.

An Empirical Analysis on the Relation of Environmental and Financial Performances: Default Risk Approach (파산위험을 이용한 기업의 재무성과와 환경성과의 관계 분석)

  • Hong, Chung-Hun;Lee, Soo-Kyoung
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2006
  • As the social responsibility of corporations becomes more important, recently, many corporations have made constant efforts to preserve natural environment. Environmental investments had been traditionally thought as cost factors and sources of negative effects on a firm's financial performances. In this study, we explore the relation of financial and environmental performances of Korean corporations. We use default probability as well as ROE as indicators of financial performances. We find that there is positive correlation between ROE and environmental performance, and negative correlation between default probability and environmental performance. This implies that Korean corporations should recognize environmental investment as means of improving corporate value.

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Multivariate design estimations under copulas constructions. Stage-1: Parametrical density constructions for defining flood marginals for the Kelantan River basin, Malaysia

  • Latif, Shahid;Mustafa, Firuza
    • Ocean Systems Engineering
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.287-328
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    • 2019
  • Comprehensive understanding of the flood risk assessments via frequency analysis often demands multivariate designs under the different notations of return periods. Flood is a tri-variate random consequence, which often pointing the unreliability of univariate return period and demands for the joint dependency construction by accounting its multiple intercorrelated flood vectors i.e., flood peak, volume & durations. Selecting the most parsimonious probability functions for demonstrating univariate flood marginals distributions is often a mandatory pre-processing desire before the establishment of joint dependency. Especially under copulas methodology, which often allows the practitioner to model univariate marginals separately from their joint constructions. Parametric density approximations often hypothesized that the random samples must follow some specific or predefine probability density functions, which usually defines different estimates especially in the tail of distributions. Concentrations of the upper tail often seem interesting during flood modelling also, no evidence exhibited in favours of any fixed distributions, which often characterized through the trial and error procedure based on goodness-of-fit measures. On another side, model performance evaluations and selections of best-fitted distributions often demand precise investigations via comparing the relative sample reproducing capabilities otherwise, inconsistencies might reveal uncertainty. Also, the strength & weakness of different fitness statistics usually vary and having different extent during demonstrating gaps and dispensary among fitted distributions. In this literature, selections efforts of marginal distributions of flood variables are incorporated by employing an interactive set of parametric functions for event-based (or Block annual maxima) samples over the 50-years continuously-distributed streamflow characteristics for the Kelantan River basin at Gulliemard Bridge, Malaysia. Model fitness criteria are examined based on the degree of agreements between cumulative empirical and theoretical probabilities. Both the analytical as well as graphically visual inspections are undertaken to strengthen much decisive evidence in favour of best-fitted probability density.

Emergence and Structure of Complex Mutualistic Networks

  • Lee, KyoungEun;Jung, Nam;Lee, Hyun Min;Maeng, Seung Eun;Lee, Jae Woo
    • Proceedings of the National Institute of Ecology of the Republic of Korea
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.149-153
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    • 2022
  • The degree distribution of the plant-pollinator network was identified by analyzing the data in the ecosystem and reproduced by a model of the growing bipartite mutualistic networks. The degree distribution of pollinator shows power law or stretched exponential distribution, while plant usually shows stretched exponential distribution. In the growth model, the plant and the pollinator are selected with probability Pp and PA=1-Pp, respectively. The number of incoming links for the plant and the pollinator is lp and lA, respectively. The probability that the link of the plant selects the pollinator of the existing network given as $A_{k_i}=k^{{\lambda}_A}_i/{\sum}_i\;k^{{\lambda}_A}_i$, and the probability that the pollinator selects the plant is $P_{k_i}=k^{{\lambda}_p}_i/{\sum}_i\;k^{{\lambda}_p}_i$. When the nonlinear growth index is 𝛌X=1 (X=A or P), the degree distribution follows a power law, and if 0≤𝛌X<1, the degree distribution follows a stretched exponential distribution. The cumulative degree distributions of plants and pollinators of 14 empirical plant-pollinators included in Interaction Web Database were calculated. A set of parameters (PA,PP,lA,lP) that reproduces these cumulative degree distributions and a growth index 𝛌X (X=A or P) were obtained. We found that animal takes very heterogenous connections, whereas plant takes a more flexible connection network.

The Effect of Tax Investigation Probability on Accounting Transparency in KOSDAQ (코스닥 상장 기업의 세무조사 가능성이 회계투명성에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Su-Ji;Ahn, Mi-Gang
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.115-129
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - This study aimed to clarify the effects of tax investigation probability on accounting transparency in KOSDAQ firms by using financial statement. In particular, it was analyzed whether the characteristics of a firm's listed market have a discriminatory effect on the relationship between the tax investigation selection rate (or detection rate) and earnings management. Design/methodology/approach - This paper examines analyzed the effect of tax investigation of the National Tax Service on the earnings management. The sample includes 9,603 firms listed on KOSPI and KOSDAQ from 2011 to 2018, all of which are manufacturing firms. This study conducted correlation and multiple regression analyses to verify the relationship between tax investigation probability and earnings management. The possibility of a tax investigation is the selection rate and the detection rate, and the profit adjustment was estimated at discretionary amount. Findings - As a result of empirical analysis, both firms listed on KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets showed that the higher the tax investigation rates, the more significant the possibility of reducing the earnings management of discretionary accruals. Additionally it was found that in KOSDAQ markets firms, the tax investigation detection rates had a signigicant nagative effect on discretionary accruals. Research implications or Originality - It can be interpreted that firms with a high rates of receiving a tax investigation decrease earnings management consideration of expenses such as additional tax amount due to the tax audit or a decline in corporate image.

Financial Liberalization, Government Stability, and Currency Crises - Some Evidence from South Korea and Emerging Market Economies

  • Chiu, Eric M.P.
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.129-144
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - Recent empirical studies have reached mixed results on the effects of financial liberalization and currency crises. We argue that this relationship is likely to depend both on whether controls are primarily on the degrees of financial liberalization and on the stability of the government. Using the disaggregated data on financial liberalization recently developed by Abiad et al (2010) for a sample of 30 emerging countries over the period 1995-2015, we attempt to investigate the political economy determinants of currency crises. Design/methodology - Our empirical model considers the relationship between financial liberalization and currency crises for emerging market economies. This study employs the existing theoretical framework to identify the disaggregate level for financial liberalization across countries. Using a multivariate logit model, this study attempts to estimate the interrelationship among financial liberalization, government stability and currency crises complemented by a case study of South Korea. Findings - Our main findings can be summarized as follows: we find strong support for the proposition that more liberalized financial institutions are positively associated with the probability of currency crises especially under less stable governments, but reduce the risks of currency crises especially for more stable governments. We also examine the role of financial systems with the case of South Korea after Asian financial crises and the results are further supported and consistent with the empirical findings. Originality/value - Existing studies focus on the economic factors across countries. This paper instead attempts to evaluate the effects of financial liberalization and currency crises by incorporating political considerations with newly developed dataset on financial liberalization, which are essential to the understanding of the causes of currency crises.

Household Characteristics and Changes in Income Class: 1998~2001 (가구특성에 따른 소득계층 변화)

  • Kim, Geneuhc;Chung, Eui-Chul
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.91-115
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    • 2004
  • Based on household characteristics, this study analyzes the sources of changes in income class. Using KLI panel data in 1998 and 2001, household equivalent income is calculated and households whose income class is changed are identified. Various household characteristics are examined to understand which characteristics are influential in income class changes. Empirical estimations are carried out by employing an ordered probit model. Region of residence, age of household head, education level of the head, the number of employed family members in 1998, and a change in the number of employed family members are shown to be statistically significant. Calculation of marginal probability based on the ordered probit estimation results show that the probability of upward movement in income class decreases as a household lives in rural areas, while the probability of upward movement increases as the household's head is better educated, the number of employed family members are higher and there is a higher increase in the number of employed family members. Age of the head has mixed results; while the probability of upward movement in income class decreases as the head gets older for the households in middle and high income classes, that probability increases as the head is in the range of the 40s and the 50s in low income class households.

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