• Title/Summary/Keyword: Empirical Learning

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Classification Algorithm-based Prediction Performance of Order Imbalance Information on Short-Term Stock Price (분류 알고리즘 기반 주문 불균형 정보의 단기 주가 예측 성과)

  • Kim, S.W.
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.157-177
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    • 2022
  • Investors are trading stocks by keeping a close watch on the order information submitted by domestic and foreign investors in real time through Limit Order Book information, so-called price current provided by securities firms. Will order information released in the Limit Order Book be useful in stock price prediction? This study analyzes whether it is significant as a predictor of future stock price up or down when order imbalances appear as investors' buying and selling orders are concentrated to one side during intra-day trading time. Using classification algorithms, this study improved the prediction accuracy of the order imbalance information on the short-term price up and down trend, that is the closing price up and down of the day. Day trading strategies are proposed using the predicted price trends of the classification algorithms and the trading performances are analyzed through empirical analysis. The 5-minute KOSPI200 Index Futures data were analyzed for 4,564 days from January 19, 2004 to June 30, 2022. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, order imbalance information has a significant impact on the current stock prices. Second, the order imbalance information observed in the early morning has a significant forecasting power on the price trends from the early morning to the market closing time. Third, the Support Vector Machines algorithm showed the highest prediction accuracy on the day's closing price trends using the order imbalance information at 54.1%. Fourth, the order imbalance information measured at an early time of day had higher prediction accuracy than the order imbalance information measured at a later time of day. Fifth, the trading performances of the day trading strategies using the prediction results of the classification algorithms on the price up and down trends were higher than that of the benchmark trading strategy. Sixth, except for the K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm, all investment performances using the classification algorithms showed average higher total profits than that of the benchmark strategy. Seventh, the trading performances using the predictive results of the Logical Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and XGBoost algorithms showed higher results than the benchmark strategy in the Sharpe Ratio, which evaluates both profitability and risk. This study has an academic difference from existing studies in that it documented the economic value of the total buy & sell order volume information among the Limit Order Book information. The empirical results of this study are also valuable to the market participants from a trading perspective. In future studies, it is necessary to improve the performance of the trading strategy using more accurate price prediction results by expanding to deep learning models which are actively being studied for predicting stock prices recently.

An Empirical Study on the Effect of CRM System on the Performance of Pharmaceutical Companies (고객관계관리 시스템의 수준이 BSC 관점에서의 기업성과에 미치는 영향 : 제약회사를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Hyun-Jung;Park, Jong-Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.43-65
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    • 2010
  • Facing a complex environment driven by a decade, many companies are adopting new strategic frameworks such as Customer Relationship Management system to achieve sustainable profitability as well as overcome serious competition for survival. In many business areas, CRM system advanced a great deal in a matter of continuous compensating the defect and overall integration. However, pharmaceutical companies in Korea were slow to accept them for usesince they still have a tendency of holding fast to traditional way of sales and marketing based on individual networks of sales representatives. In the circumstance, this article tried to empirically address current status of CRM system as well as the effects of the system on the performance of pharmaceutical companies by applying BSC method's four perspectives, from financial, customer, learning and growth and internal process. Survey by e-mail and post to employers and employees who were working in pharma firms were undergone for the purpose. Total 113 cases among collected 140 ones were used for the statistical analysis by SPSS ver. 15 package. Reliability, Factor analysis, regression were done. This study revealed that CRM system had a significant effect on improving financial and non-financial performance of pharmaceutical companies as expected. Proposed regression model fits well and among them, CRM marketing information system shed the light on substantial impact on companies' outcome given profitability, growth and investment. Useful analytical information by CRM marketing information system appears to enable pharmaceutical firms to set up effective marketing and sales strategies, these result in favorable financial performance by enhancing values for stakeholderseventually, not to mention short-term profit and/or mid-term potential to growth. CRM system depicted its influence on not only financial performance, but also non-financial fruit of pharmaceutical companies. Further analysis for each component showed that CRM marketing information system were able to demonstrate statistically significant effect on the performance like the result of financial outcome. CRM system is believed to provide the companies with efficient way of customers managing by valuable standardized business process prompt coping with specific customers' needs. It consequently induces customer satisfaction and retentionto improve performance for long period. That is, there is a virtuous circle for creating value as the cornerstone for sustainable growth. However, the research failed to put forward to evidence to support hypothesis regarding favorable influence of CRM sales representative's records assessment system and CRM customer analysis system on the management performance. The analysis is regarded to reflect the lack of understanding of sales people and respondents between actual work duties and far-sighted goal in strategic analysis framework. Ordinary salesmen seem to dedicate short-term goal for the purpose of meeting sales target, receiving incentive bonus in a manner-of-fact style, as such, they tend to avail themselves of personal network and sales and promotional expense rather than CRM system. The study finding proposed a link between CRM information system and performance. It empirically indicated that pharmaceutical companies had been implementing CRM system as an effective strategic business framework in order for more balanced achievements based on the grounded understanding of both CRM system and integrated performance. It suggests a positive impact of supportive CRM system on firm performance, especially for pharmaceutical industry through the initial empirical evidence. Also, it brings out unmet needs for more practical system design, improvement of employees' awareness, increase of system utilization in the field. On the basis of the insight from this exploratory study, confirmatory research by more appropriate measurement tool and increased sample size should be further examined.

The Impact of Work Experience of Related Domain on the 'Good Quality Startup' : K-Ventures Case Study (관련 기업 근무경험이 '질 좋은 청년창업'에 미치는 영향 : K벤처스 투자기업 사례를 중심으로)

  • Park, Wonmi;Choi, Suyoung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.141-155
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    • 2014
  • This study examines the effect of previous work experience on the long-lived venture firm called 'Good Quality startup'. The research explores entrepreneurs of 16 mobile application startups that were invested by the venture capital, 'K-ventures', through the resource-based view. The results show that all of entrepreneurs had previous experiences of their business domain. They accumulated human resources such as technology capabilities, knowledge of domain, know-how, networking through learning-by-doing. Entrepreneur's human resources are the key factors for opportunity recognition and realisation process; and it is also on the ground that venture capital determines investment. Venture capital provides financial resources, management support and strong network for venture firm. Technology resources, financial resources, know-how and networking are the core managerial resources to be a long-lived venture firm called 'Good Quality Startup'. This research is an exploratory case study based on previous experience and 'good quality entrepreneurship'. The empirical study hereafter is needed.

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The Correlation Influences by the Quality of Product Pivoting Boot Camp and its level of Training Satisfaction on the Applying Will to Their Real Business of High-tech Ventures in the Early Stage of Growth (창업도약기업 제품개선훈련프로그램의 품질과 전반적 만족도가 현업적용의지에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Kim, Myung-Seuk;Yang, Young-Seok;Hwangbo, Yun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2018
  • This paper define the research problem as the jeopardized situation of most startups in early chasm. Korean government have put more policy focus on helping these startups to jump over the chasm. One of the effective policy measures helps these startups defining the core competencies validated from target customers, in-housing them effectively, and therefore enhancing the level of differentiation against the competitors by "Product Pivoting Training Boots Camp." It ultimately give the key nudge to startups in struggling with unsold products after initial launch to the market. This paper carried out the empirical test to the target sample of startups participating in this camp. In particular, this research analyze the level of satisfaction of startups, as move along with characteristics of the participant and training program, going through this camp whether it enhance their will of application into real business case. The survey were delivered and collected from 203 startups in attending "Product Pivoting Academy, the following program of Startup Jump-up package policy module. The research result shows that all startups participating in this academy were so much satisfied and motivated strongly to take the training process into applying real business case in order to increase sales. The quality of the training program and the characteristics of the participants had mediating variable effects on the will of application with respect to the level of satisfaction. It imply that the program should put more attention on improving coaches' nudge and learning motivation of participants to enhance the level program satisfaction.

An cows using BSC founder for a study on the management and business consulting (BSC를 이용한 소상공인 창업자를 위한 자영업컨설팅 경영성과에 관한 연구)

  • An, Seong Hui;Jo, Yoon Ah;Jo, In Seog
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.39-49
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    • 2015
  • Thus this study looked into existing literature focusing on generalities, and after literature studies, hypothesis was set up to solve the problems in the study. According to literature examination, self employed consulting was found to be comprised of four areas: awareness, reliability, satisfaction, and utilization, while consulting could be divided into four customer perspectives: customer, financial, internal processing, and learning and growth. An empirical study was conducted to verify the causal relationship between these causes, and we describe the findings of the study on the business management performance pursuant to self employed business consulting as follows: In this study, we examine an overall business management performance measurement by adopting the four variables of self employed business consulting, and enhance the chance of success by having systematic access to business establishment. In conclusion, in order to increase the success rate of the small business start-up, it is important to choose such items that fit the founder's experience and the characteristics of the business zone, and a successful founding of a business will be accomplished only when sufficient funding is combined with successful running, therefore, most importantly, striking a balance between the factors should start with the founder as the center, and there must be professional business knowledge and technical assistance by the business start-up support agency.

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The Effect of Failure Experiences on Exploratory Innovation Activities: A Longitudinal Study of The Korean Pharmaceutical Industry (실패경험이 기술혁신 활동과 기술개발 성과에 미치는 영향: 국내 제약 산업을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jaegun;Huh, Moon-Goo
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.69-97
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    • 2018
  • This study explored the influence of failure experience of Korean pharmaceutical industries on the innovative activities of corporations from the perspectives of R&D and knowledge search. Previous studies have defined the cause of the failure or studied the reasons for the decline. However, studies analyzing the influence of failure on the innovative activities of corporations are rare. This study set a research period of 10 years for the Korean pharmaceutical industry to conduct a longitudinal analysis of the influence of the influence of failure on innovation activities and the influence of innovation activities on radical innovation. A summary of the research results is as follows. Firstly, failure of corporations induce exploratory innovation activities, and the extent differs greatly from the size of financial slack resource. Secondly, experiences of corporations' failure were not significant from the perspective of knowledge search. Thirdly, the interaction between the corporation's exploratory innovation activities and knowledge search had a positive (+) relationship with radical innovation performance. This study is significant in that it suggested empirical evidence by verifying the positive influence of failure to learning and innovation unlike previous researches viewing failure negatively, and suggested the direction of future studies based on these research results.

The Flood Water Stage Prediction based on Neural Networks Method in Stream Gauge Station (하천수위표지점에서 신경망기법을 이용한 홍수위의 예측)

  • Kim, Seong-Won;Salas, Jose-D.
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.247-262
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, the WSANN(Water Stage Analysis with Neural Network) model was presented so as to predict flood water stage at Jindong which has been the major stream gauging station in Nakdong river basin. The WSANN model used the improved backpropagation training algorithm which was complemented by the momentum method, improvement of initial condition and adaptive-learning rate and the data which were used for this study were classified into training and testing data sets. An empirical equation was derived to determine optimal hidden layer node between the hidden layer node and threshold iteration number. And, the calibration of the WSANN model was performed by the four training data sets. As a result of calibration, the WSANN22 and WSANN32 model were selected for the optimal models which would be used for model verification. The model verification was carried out so as to evaluate model fitness with the two-untrained testing data sets. And, flood water stages were reasonably predicted through the results of statistical analysis. As results of this study, further research activities are needed for the construction of a real-time warning of the impending flood and for the control of flood water stage with neural network method in river basin. basin.

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Electronic Games Appropriated for the Classrooms: A Proposal of the Questionnaire Containing 17 Questions (교실로 들어온 전자오락게임: 게임에 관한 열일곱 가지 질문)

  • Park, Sung-Bong
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.156-172
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    • 2008
  • The point of departure is the Popularity of the electronic games among the youth generation. This study attempts to make up a questionnaire containing the questions which are intended for the youth generation realistically and at the same time in a meaningful way pedagogically. Any researcher who wants to understand the youth culture at the present time is necessary to approach the youth generation in a positive attitude of learning, so asking the questions to the youth generation is as important as having the answers. That is to say, this paper is not a statistical analysis of the questionnaire, nor a empirical research of youth's reception of the electronic games. Now that the emphasis of the paper is located on the very way of approaching the youth generation concerning the electronic games, this study starts with the university students in the first place because they are in a more advantageous milieu for conversation in the classroom on the subject. To be sure, this study will be able to cover the whole area of primary, junior or senior high-school by way of some modifications. Conclusively, this paper aims at providing with practical ideas of teaching, which immediately can be appropriated into the classroom by the teachers in the actual field, and drawing attention to the potential educational contents of the cultural products. Furthermore, the questionnaire proposed in the paper is meant for the first step towards the aesthetics of the electronic games with a view to the game-imagination.

Computational estimation of the earthquake response for fibre reinforced concrete rectangular columns

  • Liu, Chanjuan;Wu, Xinling;Wakil, Karzan;Jermsittiparsert, Kittisak;Ho, Lanh Si;Alabduljabbar, Hisham;Alaskar, Abdulaziz;Alrshoudi, Fahed;Alyousef, Rayed;Mohamed, Abdeliazim Mustafa
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.743-767
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    • 2020
  • Due to the impressive flexural performance, enhanced compressive strength and more constrained crack propagation, Fibre-reinforced concrete (FRC) have been widely employed in the construction application. Majority of experimental studies have focused on the seismic behavior of FRC columns. Based on the valid experimental data obtained from the previous studies, the current study has evaluated the seismic response and compressive strength of FRC rectangular columns while following hybrid metaheuristic techniques. Due to the non-linearity of seismic data, Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) has been incorporated with metaheuristic algorithms. 317 different datasets from FRC column tests has been applied as one database in order to determine the most influential factor on the ultimate strengths of FRC rectangular columns subjected to the simulated seismic loading. ANFIS has been used with the incorporation of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Genetic algorithm (GA). For the analysis of the attained results, Extreme learning machine (ELM) as an authentic prediction method has been concurrently used. The variable selection procedure is to choose the most dominant parameters affecting the ultimate strengths of FRC rectangular columns subjected to simulated seismic loading. Accordingly, the results have shown that ANFIS-PSO has successfully predicted the seismic lateral load with R2 = 0.857 and 0.902 for the test and train phase, respectively, nominated as the lateral load prediction estimator. On the other hand, in case of compressive strength prediction, ELM is to predict the compressive strength with R2 = 0.657 and 0.862 for test and train phase, respectively. The results have shown that the seismic lateral force trend is more predictable than the compressive strength of FRC rectangular columns, in which the best results belong to the lateral force prediction. Compressive strength prediction has illustrated a significant deviation above 40 Mpa which could be related to the considerable non-linearity and possible empirical shortcomings. Finally, employing ANFIS-GA and ANFIS-PSO techniques to evaluate the seismic response of FRC are a promising reliable approach to be replaced for high cost and time-consuming experimental tests.

Analysis of Physics Terminology in Science Textbooks for Teaching Science Words (과학 용어 교육을 위한 과학 교과서 수록 물리 용어 분석)

  • Yun, Eunjeong;Park, Yunebae
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.735-750
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to relieve the difficulties caused by science terminology in science learning and increasing the efficiency of science education. The reason why students experience difficulties in science terminology is because science words are used without being filtered by a criteria and students have not had the opportunity to be educated properly in science terminology. As a way to solve this problem, we propose establishing a criteria about the science words used in science education and to teach the science words systematically to the students under the criteria. In this study, we used the method of empirical linguistics that investigate the science terminologies actually used in science education to establish a criteria for science words. As a basic research for this, we analyzed all words contained in the physics section of science textbooks for elementary and secondary schools. And then, we collected all words used in the physics section of science textbook, and selected the science words for teaching, and rated them by grade. As a result, a total of 930 physics terms were selected as the science words for grade 3 to 10. The numbers of physics terms per grade were as follows: 66 words for the 3rd grade, 38 words for the 4th grade, 35 words for the 5th grade, 28 words for the 6th grade, 203 words for the 7th grade, 135 words for the 8th grade, 123 words for the 9th grade, and 302 words for the 10th grade.