• Title/Summary/Keyword: Economic Risk

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Classification Algorithm-based Prediction Performance of Order Imbalance Information on Short-Term Stock Price (분류 알고리즘 기반 주문 불균형 정보의 단기 주가 예측 성과)

  • Kim, S.W.
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.157-177
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    • 2022
  • Investors are trading stocks by keeping a close watch on the order information submitted by domestic and foreign investors in real time through Limit Order Book information, so-called price current provided by securities firms. Will order information released in the Limit Order Book be useful in stock price prediction? This study analyzes whether it is significant as a predictor of future stock price up or down when order imbalances appear as investors' buying and selling orders are concentrated to one side during intra-day trading time. Using classification algorithms, this study improved the prediction accuracy of the order imbalance information on the short-term price up and down trend, that is the closing price up and down of the day. Day trading strategies are proposed using the predicted price trends of the classification algorithms and the trading performances are analyzed through empirical analysis. The 5-minute KOSPI200 Index Futures data were analyzed for 4,564 days from January 19, 2004 to June 30, 2022. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, order imbalance information has a significant impact on the current stock prices. Second, the order imbalance information observed in the early morning has a significant forecasting power on the price trends from the early morning to the market closing time. Third, the Support Vector Machines algorithm showed the highest prediction accuracy on the day's closing price trends using the order imbalance information at 54.1%. Fourth, the order imbalance information measured at an early time of day had higher prediction accuracy than the order imbalance information measured at a later time of day. Fifth, the trading performances of the day trading strategies using the prediction results of the classification algorithms on the price up and down trends were higher than that of the benchmark trading strategy. Sixth, except for the K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm, all investment performances using the classification algorithms showed average higher total profits than that of the benchmark strategy. Seventh, the trading performances using the predictive results of the Logical Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and XGBoost algorithms showed higher results than the benchmark strategy in the Sharpe Ratio, which evaluates both profitability and risk. This study has an academic difference from existing studies in that it documented the economic value of the total buy & sell order volume information among the Limit Order Book information. The empirical results of this study are also valuable to the market participants from a trading perspective. In future studies, it is necessary to improve the performance of the trading strategy using more accurate price prediction results by expanding to deep learning models which are actively being studied for predicting stock prices recently.

Development of Social Entrepreneurship Multidimensional Model and Framework: Focusing on the Cooperation Orientation of Social Enterprises (사회적기업가정신 다차원 모형 및 프레임워크: 사회적기업의 협력지향성을 중심으로)

  • Cho, Han Jun;Sung, Chang Soo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the unique entrepreneurial behavioral attributes of social enterprises that are distinct from for-profit enterprises at the organizational level, derive a social entrepreneurship model that reflects the unique characteristics of social enterprises as strategic decision-making and organizational behavioral tendencies. In order to effectively achieve the purpose of this study, previous studies were reviewed, and qualitative studies were conducted using the grounded theory method based on this. In this study, social entrepreneurship was identified as five sub-factors through a series of analysis processes, and 'Social value orientation; Innovativeness; Pro-activeness; Risk taking; Cooperation orientation' was newly proposed. It also proposed a new social entrepreneurship framework that integrates and explains the multidimensional model of social entrepreneurship by reviewing and connecting the relationships between each sub-factor of the research model. The 'social entrepreneurship framework' classified the social entrepreneurship model into 'pro-social motivation', 'pro-social behavior', and 'entrepreneurial behavior' attributes and explained them by linking them with each sub-factor that constitutes social entrepreneurship. The most remarkable difference between this study and previous studies is that it identified and added 'Cooperation orientation' as a sub-factor constituting social entrepreneurship from the organizational-level behavioral point of view. Through this study, 'Cooperation orientation' was identified as a major behavioral tendency for social enterprises to materialize pro-social motivation, strengthen the economic foundation of business activities, and improve the efficiency of business operations. 'Cooperation orientation' is a major behavioral tendency that strengthens the legitimacy of business activities between pro-social motivation and profit-seeking of social enterprises, improves the performance of social value creation activities, and overcomes the difficulties of resource constraints through cooperation with the outside and improves operational efficiency. In addition, it was confirmed that 'Cooperation orientation' is a major behavioral tendency of social enterprises that is manifested simultaneously in social value-oriented activities and entrepreneurial activities pursuing profit. The 'Cooperation orientation' newly identified in the study supplements the previous research, increases the explanatory power of the theory of social entrepreneurship, and provides the basis for theoretical expansion to subsequent researchers.

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Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis Response Capacities by Countries (코로나19 팬데믹 위기 대응 역량의 국가별 비교분석)

  • Yoon Hyeon Lee
    • The Journal of Korean Society for School & Community Health Education
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 2024
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to analyze each country's infectious disease response capacities and, based on this, find areas for improvement in Korea's infectious disease management response. Methods: First, the capacity to respond to the COVID-19 infectious disease was analyzed by country using the SPAR scores of 96 countries around the world released by WHO in 2022. Second, we analyzed each country's specific COVID-19 quarantine performance using Our World in Data and the Global Health Security Index (GHSI). Results: First, the quarantine intensity index on January 24, 2021 was the highest in the Southeast Asia branch at 67.6, which had strong quarantine measures, and the lowest at 44.5 in the Africa branch. As of December 31, 2022, the quarantine intensity index in Europe was significantly lowered to 11.6. Second, the factor that influenced the SPAR indicator on the total number of patients per million population was national laboratory (C4), p=.027, and the factor that influenced the total number of deaths per million population was infection prevention and control (C9), p=.005., Risk Communication and Community Participation (C10) p=.040. The influential factor on GDP per capita was infection prevention and control (C9) p=.009, and the influential factor on GHSI was infection prevention and control (C9) p=.002. Conclusion: The research findings indicate that it was difficult to find a correlation between the SPAR, which is each country's self-assessment of their infectious disease capacities, and the number of COVID-19 cases or the intensity of pandemic responses. However, mortality rates, as well as factors such as the Global Health Security Index (GHSI) and national income, appear to be somewhat influenced. For future improvements in infectious disease management and response in our country, it is necessary to develop pandemic strategies that can reduce socio-economic costs based on more scientific and reliable data like JEE or GHSI, especially in preparation for potential unknown emerging infectious diseases. Based on this, proactive decision-making led by a control tower of experts and effective health communication are also required to respond to public health crises at a national level.

Betweenness Centrality-based Evacuation Vulnerability Analysis for Subway Stations: Case Study on Gwanggyo Central Station (매개 중심성 기반 지하철 역사 재난 대피 취약성 분석: 광교중앙역 사례연구)

  • Jeong, Ji Won;Ahn, Seungjun;Yoo, Min-Taek
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.407-416
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    • 2024
  • Over the past 20 years, there has been a rapid increase in the number and size of subway stations and underground structures worldwide, and the importance of safety for subway users has also continuously grown. Subway stations, due to their structural characteristics, have limited visibility and escape routes in disaster situations, posing a high risk of human casualties and economic losses. Therefore, an analysis of disaster vulnerabilities is essential not only for existing subway systems but also for deep underground facilities like GTX. This paper presents a case study applying a betweenness centrality-based disaster vulnerability analysis framework to the case of Gwanggyo Central Station. The analysis of Gwanggyo Central Station's base model and various disaster scenarios revealed that the betweenness centrality distribution is symmetrical, following the symmetrical spatial structure of the station, with high centrality concentrated in the central areas of basement levels one and two. These areas exhibited values more than 220% above the average, indicating a high likelihood of bottleneck phenomena during evacuation in disaster situations. To mitigate this vulnerability, scenarios were proposed to distribute evacuation flows concentrated in the central areas, enhancing the usability of peripheral areas as evacuation routes by connecting staircases continuously. This modification, when considered, showed a decrease in centrality concentration, confirming that the proposed addition of evacuation paths could effectively contribute to dispersing the flow of evacuation in Gwanggyo Central Station. This case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed framework for assessing evacuation vulnerability in enhancing subway station user safety and can be effectively applied in disaster response and management plans for major underground facilities.

Geology and Mineralization of Las Bambas Cu Mine in Apurimac Porphyry Copper Metallogenic Belt, Peru (페루 아뿌리막 반암동 광화대내 라스 밤바스 구리 광산의 지질과 광화작용)

  • Bong Chul Yoo;Jorge Acosta
    • Korean Journal of Mineralogy and Petrology
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.77-85
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    • 2024
  • Recently, the world has been declaring global carbon neutrality to curb carbon emissions, a major factor in global warming. Therfore, high-tech and clean energy industries such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, batteries, and semiconductors are rapidly developing. The Korean government selected total 33 critical minerals on based of evaluating the supply risk and economic impact of raw minerals essential for national high-tech industries (semiconductors, secondary battery, etc). Among these critical minerals, Copper, Zinc and lead have been used as basic materials in human life from the past to the present and in addition, they are currently used as an essential material for mobile phones, electric vehicles, and batteries. So, I would like to introduce the Las Bambas copper mine within Apurimac porphyry copper metallogenic belt of Peru, which have the world's 2nd (copper), 4th (zinc) and 5th (lead) largest reserves of these critical minerals. Las Bambas copper mine is the world's largest mine with copper reserves of more than 1 billion tons and is joint venture project mine invested by MMG (Minerals and Metals Group, 62.5%), Guoxin international investment company (22.5%) and CITIC metal company (15.0%). This mine mainly produces copper and also produces gold, silver and molybdenum as a by-product. The ore grade of this mine has 0.77% Cu, 0.06 g/t Au, 3.93 g/t Ag and 178 ppm Mo. Mineral resource and ore reserve of this mine have 10.5 million ton Cu (0.61% Cu) and 6.9 million ton Cu (0.73% Cu). So, this mine life is about more than 20 years. The copper mineralization of this mine occurs as skarn type and vein type related with lower limestone of Ferrobamba formation and Cenozoic monzonites.

An Overview of the Rationale of Monetary and Banking Intervention: The Role of the Central Bank in Money and Banking Revisited (화폐(貨幣)·금융개입(金融介入)의 이론적(理論的) 근거(根據)에 대한 고찰(考察) : 중앙은행(中央銀行)의 존립근거(存立根據)에 대한 개관(槪觀))

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.71-94
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    • 1990
  • This paper reviews the rationale of monetary and banking intervention by an outside authority, either the government or the central bank, and seeks to delineate clearly the optimal limits to the monetary and banking deregulation currently underway in Korea as well as on a global scale. Furthermore, this paper seeks to establish an objective and balanced view on the role of the central bank, especially in light of the current discussion on the restructuring of Korea's central bank, which has been severely contaminated by interest-group politics. The discussion begins with the recognition that the modern free banking school and the new monetary economics are becoming formidable challenges to the traditional role of the government or the central bank in the monetary and banking sector. The paper reviews six arguments that have traditionally been presented to support intervention: (1) the possibility of an over-issue of bank notes under free banking instead of central banking; (2) externalities in and the public good nature of the use of money; (3) economies of scale and natural monopoly in producing money; (4) the need for macro stabilization policy due to the instability of the real sector; (5) the external effects of bank failure due to the inherent instability of the existing banking system; and (6) protection for small banknote users and depositors. Based on an analysis of the above arguments, the paper speculates on the optimal role of the government or central bank in the monetary and banking system and the optimal degree of monetary and banking deregulation. By contrast to the arguments for free banking or laissez-faire monetary systems, which become fashionable in recent years, monopoly and intervention by the government or central bank in the outside money system can be both necessary and optimal. In this case, of course, an over-issue of fiat money may be possible due to political considerations, but this issue is beyond the scope of this paper. On the other hand, the issue of inside monies based on outside money could indeed be provided for optimally under market competition by private institutions. A competitive system in issuing inside monies would help realize, to the maxim urn extent possible, external economies generated by using a single outside money. According to this reasoning, free banking activities will prevail in the inside money system, while a government monopoly will prevail in the outside money system. This speculation, then, also implies that the monetary and banking deregulation currently underway should and most likely will be limited to the inside money system, which could be liberalized to the fullest degree. It is also implied that it will be impractical to deregulate the outside money system and to allow market competition to provide outside money, in accordance with the arguments of the free banking school and the new monetary economics. Furthermore, the role of the government or central bank in this new environment will not be significantly different from their current roles. As far as the supply of fiat money continues to be monopolized by the government, the control of the supply of base money and such related responsibilities as monetary policy (argument(4)) and the lender of the last resort (argument (5)) will naturally be assigned to the outside money supplier. However, a mechanism for controlling an over-issue of fiat money by a monopolistic supplier will definitely be called for (argument(1)). A monetary policy based on a certain policy rule could be one possibility. More importantly, the deregulation of the inside money system would further increase the systemic risk inherent in the current fractional banking system, while enhancing the efficiency of the system (argument (5)). In this context, the role of the lender of the last resort would again become an instrument of paramount importance in alleviating liquidity crises in the early stages, thereby disallowing the possibility of a widespread bank run. Similarly, prudential banking supervision would also help maintain the safety and soundness of the fully deregulated banking system. These functions would also help protect depositors from losses due to bank failures (argument (6)). Finally, these speculations suggest that government or central bank authorities have probably been too conservative on the issue of the deregulation of the financial system, beyond the caution necessary to preserve system safety. Rather, only the fullest deregulation of the inside money system seems to guarantee the maximum enjoyment of external economies in the single outside money system.

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Eating Traits and General Psychopathology of Korean Males Who Show High Score on the Korean Version of Eating Attitudes Test-26 (한국판(韓國版) 식사태도(食事態度) 검사(檢査)-26에서 고득점(高得點)을 보인 한국(韓國) 일반(一般) 남성군(男性群)의 식사특성(食事特性)과 일반정신병리(一般精神病理))

  • Han, Ki-Seok;Lee, Young-Ho;Rhee, Min-Kyu;Park, Se-Hyun;Sohn, Chang-Ho;Chung, Young-Cho;Hong, Sung-Kook;Lee, Byung-Kwan;Chang, Phi-Lip;Yoon, A-Rhee
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.87-102
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    • 1999
  • Objectives : The purposes of this study were to estimate the prevalence rate of eating disorders in Korean males and to clarify their characteristics in sociodemograhic data, the eating traits, and general psychopathology through the comparison with those of female high scored group on the Korean version of Eating Attitudes Test-26(KEAT-26). Methods : Using a multi-stage questionnaire sampling method including area sampling, proportionated stratified sampling, and quota sampling, we surveyed a total of 4,400 Korean adults over 18 in a nationwide area(9 kus, 10 middle or small cities, and 17 kuns), obtaining usable responses on 3,896. Of the 3,062 subjects(1249 males and 1813 females) who were available for analysis, we ascertained 52 males and 208 females who had high score($\geq$ cutoff point 21) on the KEAT-26. Results : 1) The proportion of this high score group was 1.7% in male and 6.8% in female with a sex ratio(male versus female) of 1 : 4. 2) The mean age was higher in the male group than in the female group, although it was not statistically significant(p=0.0514). Mean Body Mass Index(BMI) of the male group was significantly higher than that of female group, and the number of male subjects with below 20 of BMI was also significantly lower than in the female group. 3) There were no significant difference in past history of physical illness between two groups. However, frequency of smoking and alcohol use, and mean amount of alcohol consumption per month were significantly higher in the male group than in the female group. There were no significant differences between the two groups on various socio-demographic correlates such as economic status, total duration of education, number of family, marital status, religious status, and area of residence, but the exception of being occupational status. 4) The 'Eating Habits Scale' score and score of 'preference for vegetables and fish, and dislike for sweet-tasting food' of the male group were significantly lower than those of the female group. Although there was no significant difference between the two groups in total scores of the KEAT-26, the mean score on 'pursuit of thinness' subscale was higher in the female group than in the male group, while scores of 'food preoccupation' and 'self-control' subscales were higher in the male group than in the female group. 5) Scores on 'psychoticism' was significantly higher in the male group than in the female group, although there were no significant differences between the two groups on 'locus of control for weight', 'depression' and 'hypochondriasis'. Conclusion : These results support a possibility of a high prevalence of eating disorders in Korean males. These results suggest that eating related characteristics of high scorer on the EAT are different by sex in spite of the same high score on the EAT, and also suggest that male patients with eating disorders have more serious personality pathology than female patients with eating disorders.

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The Causes of Conflict and the Effect of Control Mechanisms on Conflict Resolution between Manufacturer and Supplier (제조-공급자간 갈등 원인과 거래조정 방식의 갈등관리 효과)

  • Rhee, Jin Hwa
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.55-80
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    • 2012
  • I. Introduction Developing the relationships between companies is very important issue to ensure a competitive advantage in today's business environment (Bleeke & Ernst 1991; Mohr & Spekman 1994; Powell 1990). Partnerships between companies are based on having same goals, pursuing mutual understanding, and having a professional level of interdependence. By having such a partnerships and cooperative efforts between companies, they will achieve efficiency and effectiveness of their business (Mohr and Spekman, 1994). However, it is difficult to expect these ideal results only in the B2B corporate transaction. According to agency theory which is the well-accepted theory in various fields of business strategy, organization, and marketing, the two independent companies have fundamentally different corporate purposes. Also there is a higher chance of developing opportunism and conflict due to natures of human(organization), such as self-interest, bounded rationality, risk aversion, and environment factor as imbalance of information (Eisenhardt 1989). That is, especially partnerships between principal(or buyer) and agent(or supplier) of companies within supply chain, the business contract itself will not provide competitive advantage. But managing partnership between companies is the key to success. Therefore, managing partnership between manufacturer and supplier, and finding causes of conflict are essential to improve B2B performance. In conclusion, based on prior researches and Agency theory, this study will clarify how business hazards cause conflicts on supply chain and then identify how developed conflicts have been managed by two control mechanisms. II. Research model III. Method In order to validate our research model, this study gathered questionnaires from small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs). In Korea, SMEs mean the firms whose employee is under 300 and capital is under 8 billion won(about 7.2 million dollar). We asked the manufacturer's perception about the relationship with the biggest supplier, and our key informants are denied to a person responsible for buying(ex)CEO, executives, managers of purchasing department, and so on). In detail, we contact by telephone to our initial sample(about 1,200 firms) and introduce our research motivation and send our questionnaires by e-mail, mail, and direct survey. Finally we received 361 data and eliminate 32 inappropriate questionnaires. We use 329 manufactures' data on analysis. The purpose of this study is to identify the anticipant role of business hazard (environmental dynamism, asset specificity) and investigate the moderating effect of control mechanism(formal control, social control) on conflict-performance relationship. To find out moderating effect of control methods, we need to compare the regression weight between low versus. high group(about level of exercised control methods). Therefore we choose the structural equation modeling method that is proper to do multi-group analysis. The data analysis is performed by AMOS 17.0 software, and model fits are good statically (CMIN/DF=1.982, p<.000, CFI=.936, IFI=.937, RMSEA=.056). IV. Result V. Discussion Results show that the higher environmental dynamism and asset specificity(on particular supplier) buyer(manufacturer) has, the more B2B conflict exists. And this conflict affect relationship quality and financial outcomes negatively. In addition, social control and formal control could weaken the negative effect of conflict on relationship quality significantly. However, unlikely to assure conflict resolution effect of control mechanisms on relationship quality, financial outcomes are changed by neither social control nor formal control. We could explain this results with the characteristics of our sample, SMEs(Small and Medium sized Enterprises). Financial outcomes of these SMEs(manufacturer or principal) are affected by their customer(usually major company) more easily than their supplier(or agent). And, in recent few years, most of companies have suffered from financial problems because of global economic recession. It means that it is hard to evaluate the contribution of supplier(agent). Therefore we also support the suggestion of Gladstein(1984), Poppo & Zenger(2002) that relational performance variable can capture the focal outcomes of relationship(exchange) better than financial performance variable. This study has some implications that it tests the sources of conflict and investigates the effect of resolution methods of B2B conflict empirically. And, especially, it finds out the significant moderating effect of formal control which past B2B management studies have ignored in Korea.

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The Reserch on Actual Condition of Crime of Arson Which Occurs in Korea and Its Countermeasures (방화범죄의 실태와 그 대책 - 관심도와 동기의 다양화에 대한 대응 -)

  • Choi, Jong-Tae
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.1
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    • pp.371-408
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    • 1997
  • This article is the reserch on actual condition of crime of arson which occurs in Korea and its countermeasures. The the presented problem in this article are that (1) we have generally very low rate concern about the crime of arson contrary to realistic problems of rapid increase of crime of arson (2) as such criminal motives became so diverse as to the economic or criminal purpose unlike characteristic and mental deficiency of old days, and to countermeasure these problems effectively it presentation the necessity of systemantic research. Based on analysis of reality of arson, the tendency of this arson in Korea in the ratio of increase is said to be higher than those in violence crime or general fire rate. and further its rate is far more greater than those of the U.S.A. and Japan. Arson is considered to be a method of using fire as crime and in case of presently residence to be the abject, it is a public offense crime which aqccompany fatality in human life. This is the well It now fact to all of us. And further in order to presentation to the crime of arson, strictness of criminal law (criminal law No, 164 and 169, and fire protection law No. 110 and 111) and classification of arsonist as felony are institutionary reinforced to punish with certainty of possibility, Therefore, as tendency of arson has been increased compared to other nations, it is necessary to supplement strategical policy to bring out overall concerns of the seriousness of risk and damage of arson, which have been resulted from the lack of understanding. In characteristics analysis of crime of arson, (1) It is now reveald that, in the past such crime rate appeared far more within the boundary of town or city areas in the past, presently increased rate of arsons in rural areas are far more than in the town or small city areas, thereby showing characteristics of crime of arson extending nation wide. (2) general timetable of arson shows that night more than day time rate, and reveald that is trait behavior in secrecy.(3) arsonists are usually arrested at site or by victim or report of third person(82,9%).Investigation activities or self surrenders rate only 11.2%. The time span of arrest is normally the same day of arson and at times it takes more than one year to arrest. This reveals its necessity to prepare for long period of time for arrest, (4) age rate of arson is in their thirties mostly as compared to homicide, robbery and adultery, and considerable numbers of arsons are in old age of over fifties. It reveals age rate is increased (5) Over half of the arsonists are below the junior high school (6) the rate of convicts by thier records is based on first offenders primarily and secondly more than 4 time convicts. This apparently shows necessity of effective correctional education policy for their social assimilation together with re-investigation of human education at the primary and secondary education system in thier life. The examples of motivation for arosnits, such as personal animosity, fury, monetary swindle, luscious purpose and other aims of destroying of proof, and other social resistance, violence including ways of threatening, beside the motives of individual defects, are diverse and arsonic suicide and specifically suicidal accompany together keenly manifested. When we take this fact with the criminal theory, it really reveals arsons of crime are increasing and its casualities are serious and a point as a way of suicide is the anomie theory of Durkheim and comensurate with the theory of that of Merton, Specifically in the arson of industrial complex, it is revealed that one with revolutionary motive or revolting motive would do the arsonic act. For the policy of prevention of arsons, professional research work in organizational cooperation for preventive activities is conducted in municipal or city wise functions in the name of Parson Taskforces and beside a variety of research institutes in federal government have been operating effectively to countermeasure in many fields of research. Franch and Sweden beside the U.S. set up a overall operation of fire prevention research funtions and have obtained very successful result. Japan also put their research likewise for countermeasure. In this research as a way of preventive fire policy, first, it is necessary to accomodate the legal preventitive activities for fire prevention in judicial side and as an administrative side, (1) precise statistic management of crime of arson (2) establishment of professional research functions or a corporate (3) improvement of system for cooperative structural team for investigation of fires and menpower organization of professional members. Secondly, social mentality in individual prospect, recognition of fires by arson and youth education of such effect, educational program for development and practical promotion. Thirdly, in view of environmental side, the ways of actual performance by programming with the establishment of cooperative advancement in local social function elements with administrative office, habitants, school facilities and newspapers measures (2) establishment of personal protection where weak menpowers are displayed in special fire prevention measures. These measures are presented for prevention of crime of arson. The control of crime and prevention shall be prepared as a means of self defence by the principle of self responsibility Specifically arsonists usually aims at the comparatively weak control of fire prevention is prevalent and it is therefore necessary to prepare individual facilities with their spontaneous management of fire prevention instead of public municipal funtures of local geverment. As Clifford L. Karchmer asserted instead of concerns about who would commit arson, what portion of area would be the target of the arson. It is effective to minister spontaveously the fire prevention measure in his facility with the consideration of characteristics of arson. On the other hand, it is necessary for the concerned personnel of local goverment and groups to distribute to the local society in timely manner for new information about the fire prevention, thus contribute to effective result of fire prevention result. In consideration of these factors, it is inevitable to never let coincide with the phemonemon of arsons in similar or mimic features as recognized that these could prevail just an epedemic as a strong imitational attitude. In processing of policy to encounter these problems, it is necessary to place priority of city policy to enhancement of overall concerns toward the definitive essense of crime of arson.

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Scale and Scope Economies and Prospect for the Korea's Banking Industry (우리나라 은행산업(銀行産業)의 효율성분석(效率性分析)과 제도개선방안(制度改善方案))

  • Jwa, Sung-hee
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.109-153
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    • 1992
  • This paper estimates a translog cost function for the Korea's banking industry and derives various implications on the prospect for the Korean banking structure in the future based on the estimated efficiency indicators for the banking sector. The Korean banking industry is permitted to operate trust business to the full extent and the security business to a limited extent, while it is formally subjected to the strict, specialized banking system. Security underwriting and investment businesses are allowed in a very limited extent only for stocks and bonds of maturity longer than three year and only up to 100 percent of the bank paid-in capital. Until the end of 1991, the ceiling was only up to 25 percent of the total balance of the demand deposits. However, they are prohibited from the security brokerage business. While the in-house integration of security businesses with the traditional business of deposit and commercial lending is restrictively regulated as such, Korean banks can enter the security business by establishing subsidiaries in the industry. This paper, therefore, estimates the efficiency indicators as well as the cost functions, identifying the in-house integrated trust business and security investment business as important banking activities, for various cases where both the production and the intermediation function approaches in modelling the financial intermediaries are separately applied, and the banking businesses of deposit, lending and security investment as one group and the trust businesses as another group are separately and integrally analyzed. The estimation results of the efficiency indicators for various cases are summarized in Table 1 and Table 2. First, security businesses exhibit economies of scale but also economies of scope with traditional banking activities, which implies that in-house integration of the banking and security businesses may not be a nonoptimal banking structure. Therefore, this result further implies that the transformation of Korea's banking system from the current, specialized system to the universal banking system will not impede the improvement of the banking industry's efficiency. Second, the lending businesses turn out to be subjected to diseconomies of scale, while exhibiting unclear evidence for economies of scope. In sum, it implies potential efficiency gain of the continued in-house integration of the lending activity. Third, the continued integration of the trust businesses seems to contribute to improving the efficiency of the banking businesses, since the trust businesses exhibit economies of scope. Fourth, deposit services and fee-based activities, such as foreign exchange and credit card businesses, exhibit economies of scale but constant returns to scope, which implies, the possibility of separating those businesses from other banking and trust activities. The recent trend of the credit card business being operated separately from other banking activities by an independent identity in Korea as well as in the global banking market seems to be consistent with this finding. Then, how can the possibility of separating deposit services from the remaining activities be interpreted? If one insists a strict definition of commercial banking that is confined to deposit and commercial lending activities, separating the deposit service will suggest a resolution or a disappearance of banking, itself. Recently, however, there has been a suggestion that separating banks' deposit and lending activities by allowing a depository institution which specialize in deposit taking and investing deposit fund only in the safest securities such as government securities to administer the deposit activity will alleviate the risk of a bank run. This method, in turn, will help improve the safety of the payment system (Robert E. Litan, What should Banks Do? Washington, D.C., The Brookings Institution, 1987). In this context, the possibility of separating the deposit activity will imply that a new type of depository institution will arise naturally without contradicting the efficiency of the banking businesses, as the size of the banking market grows in the future. Moreover, it is also interesting to see additional evidences confirming this statement that deposit taking and security business are cost complementarity but deposit taking and lending businesses are cost substitute (see Table 2 for cost complementarity relationship in Korea's banking industry). Finally, it has been observed that the Korea's banking industry is lacking in the characteristics of natural monopoly. Therefore, it may not be optimal to encourage the merger and acquisition in the banking industry only for the purpose of improving the efficiency.

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