• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.158-169
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• 2012

Sabah has experienced a rapid decline in the extent of forest cover. The precise impact of habitat loss on the conservation status of the plants of Sabah is uncertain. In this study we use the niche modelling algorithm MAXENT to construct preliminary, revised and final ecological niche models for Dipterocarpus lamellatus and Dipterocarpus ochraceus and combined these models with data on current land-use to derive conservation assessments for each species. Preliminary models were based on herbarium data alone. Ground surveys were conducted to evaluate the performance of these preliminary models, and a revised niche model was generated from the combined herbarium and ground survey data. The final model was obtained by constraining the predictions of the revised models by filters. The range overlap between the preliminary and revised models was 0.47 for D. lamellatus and 0.39 for D. ochraceus, suggesting poor agreement between them. There was substantial variation in estimates of habitat loss for D. ochraceus, among the preliminary, revised and constrained models, and this has the potential to lead to incorrect threat assessments. From these estimates of habitat loss, the historic distribution and estimates of population size we determine that both species should be classified as Critically Endangered under IUCN Red List guidelines. Our results suggest that ground-truthing of ecological niche models is essential, especially if the models are being used for conservation decision making.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.219-233
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• 2013

We employed the ecological niche modeling framework using GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production) to model the current and future geographic distribution of Pinus densiflora based on environmental predictor variable datasets such as climate data including the RCP 8.5 emission climate change scenario, geographic and topographic characteristics, soil and geological properties, and MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) at 4 $km^2$ resolution. National Forest Inventory (NFI) derived occurrence and abundance records from about 4,000 survey sites across the whole country were used for response variables. The current and future potential geographic distribution of Pinus densiflora, one of the tree species dominating the present Korean forest was modeled and mapped. Future models under RCP 8.5 scenarios for Pinus densiflora suggest large areas predicted under current climate conditions may be contracted by 2090 showing range shifts northward and to higher altitudes. Area Under Curve (AUC) values of the modeled result was 0.67. Overall, the results of this study were successful in showing the current distribution of major tree species and projecting their future changes. However, there are still many possible limitations and uncertainties arising from the select of the presence-absence data and the environmental predictor variables for model input. Nevertheless, ecological niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of the tree species to climate change. The final models in this study may be used to identify potential distribution of the tree species based on the future climate scenarios, which can help forest managers to decide where to allocate effort in the management of forest ecosystem under climate change in Korea.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.348-357
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• 2015

The main purpose of this study is to understand the potential geographic distribution of P. koraiensis, which is known to be one of major economic tree species, based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 scenarios and current geographic distribution from National Forest Inventory(NFI) data using ecological niche modeling. P. koraiensis abundance data extracted from NFI were utilized to estimate current geographic distribution. Also, GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production) model, one of the ecological niche models, was applied to estimate potential geographic distribution and to project future changes. Environmental explanatory variables showing Area Under Curve (AUC) value bigger than 0.6 were selected and constructed into the final model by running the model for each of the 27 variables. The results of the model validation which was performed based on confusion matrix statistics, showed quite high suitability. Currently P. koraiensis is distributed widely from 300m to 1,200m in altitude and from south to north as a result of national greening project in 1970s although major populations are found in elevated and northern area. The results of this study were successful in showing the current distribution of P. koraiensis and projecting their future changes. Future model for P. koraiensis suggest large areas predicted under current climate conditions may be contracted by 2090s showing dramatic habitat loss. Considering the increasing status of atmospheric $CO_2$ and air temperature in Korea, P. koraiensis seems to experience the significant decrease of potential distribution range in the future. The final model in this study may be used to identify climate change impacts on distribution of P. koraiensis in Korea, and a deeper understanding of its correlation may be helpful when planning afforestation strategies.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.94-98
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• 2016

Calamus andamanicus Kurz is one of the commercially important solitary rattans endemic to Andaman and Nicobar islands. The habitat suitability modeling program, MaxEnt, was used to predict the potential ecological niches of this species, based on bioclimatic variables. The study revealed high potential distribution of C. andamanicus across both Andaman and Nicobar islands. Of the 33 spatially unique points, 21 points were recorded from South and North Andamans and 12 from Great Nicobar Islands. The islands like Little Andaman, North Sentinel, Little Nicobar, Tllangchong, Teressa were also predicted positive even though this rattan is not recorded from these islands. Mean diurnal range, higher precipitation in the wettest month of the year, annual precipitation and precipitation in the driest month are the main predictors of this species distribution.

• Proceedings of the National Institute of Ecology of the Republic of Korea
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.79-85
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• 2023

The Tibetan Plateau is home to the only alpine crane species, the black-necked crane (Grus nigricollis). Conservation efforts are severely hampered by a lack of knowledge on the spatial distribution and breeding habitats of this species. The ecological niche modeling framework used to predict the spatial distribution of this species, based on the maximum entropy and occurrence record data, allowed us to generate a species-specific spatial distribution map in Ladakh, Trans-Himalaya, India. The model was created by assimilating species occurrence data from 486 geographical sites with 24 topographic and bioclimatic variables. Fourteen variables helped forecast the distribution of black-necked cranes by 96.2%. The area under the curve score for the model training data was high (0.98), indicating the accuracy and predictive performance of the model. Of the total study area, the areas with high and moderate habitat suitability for black-necked cranes were anticipated to be 8,156 km² and 6,759 km², respectively. The area with high habitat suitability within the protected areas was 5,335 km². The spatial distribution predicted using our model showed that the majority of speculated conservation areas bordered the existing protected areas of the Changthang Wildlife Sanctuary. Hence, we believe, that by increasing the current study area, we can account for these gaps in conservation areas, more effectively.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.96-109
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• 2024

Background: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government initiated the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project including regeneration and afforestation approaches. An effort was made to assess the distribution characteristics of afforested species under present and future climatic scenarios using ecological niche modelling. For sustainable forest management, landscape ecology can play a significant role. A significant change in the potential distribution of tree species is expected globally with changing climate. Ecological niche modeling provides the valuable information about the current and future distribution of species that can play crucial role in deciding the potential sites for afforestation which can be used by government institutes for afforestation programs. In this context, the potential distribution of 8 tree species, Cedrus deodara, Dalbergia sissoo, Juglans regia, Pinus wallichiana, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Senegalia modesta, Populus ciliata, and Vachellia nilotica was modeled. Results: Maxent species distribution model was used to predict current and future distribution of tree species using bioclimatic variables along with soil type and elevation. Future climate scenarios, shared socio-economic pathways (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 were considered for the years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. The model predicted high risk of decreasing potential distribution under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios for years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, respectively. Recent afforestation conservation sites of these 8 tree species do not fall within their predicted potential habitat for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. Conclusions: Each tree species responded independently in terms of its potential habitat to future climatic conditions. Cedrus deodara and P. ciliata are predicted to migrate to higher altitude towards north in present and future climate scenarios. Habitat of D. sissoo, P. wallichiana, J. regia, and V. nilotica is practiced to be declined in future climate scenarios. Eucalyptus camaldulensis is expected to be expanded its suitability area in future with eastward shift. Senegalia modesta habitat increased in the middle of the century but decreased afterwards in later half of the century. The changing and shifting forests create challenges for sustainable landscapes. Therefore, the study is an attempt to provide management tools for monitoring the climate change-driven shifting of forest landscapes.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.53 no.4
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• pp.427-435
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• 2020

The most important thing to successfully restore an oak forest is finding suitable climatic conditions and topographic factors for the oak species to be introduced. In this study, in order to find suitable environmental conditions for the five dominant oak trees on the Korean Peninsula, we carried out analysing the information on the location of forest vegetation on the Korean Peninsula. The range of annual mean temperature of the five oak trees was narrow in the order of Q. mongolica (7.7~14.3℃), Q. variabilis (9.2~13.8℃), Q. acutissima (10.5~14.3℃), Q. serrata (11.4~13.7℃), Q. aliena (11.0~12.9℃). The range of annual precipitation of oaks was narrow in order of Q. mongolica (1072.7~1780.9 mm), Q. variablis (1066.6~1554.9 mm), Q. acustissima (1036.5~1504.8 mm), Q. serrata (1062.6~1504.7 mm). The range of altitude was in order of Q. mongolica (147~1388m), Q. serrata (93~950m), Q. variabilis(90~913m), Q. acustissima (60~516m), Q. aliena (55~465 m). The range of slope was in the order of Q. mongolica (8~56°), Q. variabilis(5~52°), Q. serrata (11~45°), Q. aliena (15~38°), Q. acustissima (16~37°). These results are considered to be very useful in the case of ecological restoration using deciduous oak trees on the Korean Peninsula.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.130-142
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• 2021

Background: Climate change is occurring rapidly around the world, and is predicted to have a large impact on biodiversity. Various studies have shown that climate change can alter the geographical distribution of wild bees. As climate change affects the species distribution and causes range shift, the degree of range shift and the quality of the habitats are becoming more important for securing the species diversity. In addition, those pollinator insects are contributing not only to shaping the natural ecosystem but also to increased crop production. The distributional and habitat quality changes of wild bees are of utmost importance in the climate change era. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on distributional and habitat quality changes of five wild bees in northwestern regions of Iran under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We used species distribution models to predict the potential range shift of these species in the year 2070. Result: The effects of climate change on different species are different, and the increase in temperature mainly expands the distribution ranges of wild bees, except for one species that is estimated to have a reduced potential range. Therefore, the increase in temperature would force wild bees to shift to higher latitudes. There was also significant uncertainty in the use of different models and the number of environmental layers employed in the modeling of habitat suitability. Conclusion: The increase in temperature caused the expansion of species distribution and wider areas would be available to the studied species in the future. However, not all of this possible range may include high-quality habitats, and wild bees may limit their niche to suitable habitats. On the other hand, the movement of species to higher latitudes will cause a mismatch between farms and suitable areas for wild bees, and as a result, farmers will face a shortage of pollination from wild bees. We suggest that farmers in these areas be aware of the effects of climate change on agricultural production and consider the use of managed bees in the future.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.8-13
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• 2017

This study was conducted to develop an agent-based computing platform enabling simulation of on-farm produce contamination by enteric foodborne pathogens, which is herein called PPMCS (Preharvest Produce Microbial Contamination Simulator). Also, fecal contamination of preharvest produce was simulated using PPMCS. Although Agent-based Modeling and Simulation, the tool applied in this study, is rather popular in where socio-economical human behaviors or ecological fate of animals in their niche are to be predicted, the incidence of on-farm produce contamination which are thought to be sporadic has never been simulated using this tool. The agents in PPMCS including crop, animal as a source of fecal contamination, and fly as a vector spreading the fecal contamination are given their intrinsic behaviors that are set to be executed at certain probability. Once all these agents are on-set following the intrinsic behavioral rules, consequences as the sum of all the behaviors in the system can be monitored real-time. When fecal contamination of preharvest produce was simulated in PPMCS as numbers of animals, flies, and initially contaminated plants change, the number of animals intruding cropping area affected most on the number of contaminated plants at harvest. For further application, the behaviors and variables of the agents are adjustable depending on user's own scenario of interest. This feature allows PPMCS to be utilized in where different simulating conditions are tested.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.171-180
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• 2012

The field of wildlife habitat conservation research has attracted attention as integrated biodiversity management strategies. Considering the status of the species surveying data and the environmental variables in Korea, the GARP and Maxent models optimized for presence-only data could be one of the most suitable models in habitat modeling. For make sure applicability in the domestic environment we applied the machine learning species distribution model for analyzing habitats of the Korea water deer($Hydropotes$ $inermis$ $argyropus$) in the $Sapgyocheon$ watershed, $Chungcheong$ province. We used the $3^{rd}$ National Natural Environment Survey data and 10 environment variables by literature review for the modelling. Analysis results showed that habitats for the Korea water deer were predicted 16.3%(Maxent) and 27.1%(GARP), respectively. In terms of accuracy(training/test) the Maxent(0.85/0.69) was higher than the GARP(0.65/0.61), and the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient result of the Maxent(${\rho}$=0.71, p<0.01) was higher than the result of GARP(${\rho}$=0.55, p<0.05). However results could be depended on sites and target species, therefore selection of the appropriate model considering on the situation will be important to analyzing habitats.