• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.35 no.1
• /
• pp.119-129
• /
• 2022

In this paper, we predict the earthquake magnitudes which were recently occurred in Gyeongju and Pohang, using statistical methods based on historical data. For this purpose, we use the five-year block maximum data of 1392~1771 period, which has a relatively high annual density, among the historical earthquake magnitude data of the Chosun Dynasty. Then, we present the prediction and analysis of earthquake magnitudes for the return level over return period in the Chosun Dynasty using the extreme value theory based on the distribution of generalized extreme values (GEV). We use maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and L-moments estimation for parameters of GEV distribution. In particular, this study also demonstrates via the goodness-of-fit tests that the GEV distribution can be an appropriate analytical model for these historical earthquake magnitude data.

• International Journal of High-Rise Buildings
• /
• v.1 no.3
• /
• pp.203-209
• /
• 2012

The purpose of this paper is to present the state of practice being used in the Philippines for the performance-based seismic design of reinforced concrete tall buildings. Initially, the overall methodology follows "An Alternative Procedure for Seismic Analysis and Design of Tall Buildings Located in the Los Angeles Region, 2008", which was developed by Los Angeles Tall Buildings Structural Design Council. After 2010, the design procedure follows "Tall Buildings Initiative, Guidelines for Performance-Based Seismic Design of Tall Buildings, 2010" developed by Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER). After the completion of preliminary design in accordance with code-based design procedures, the performance of the building is checked for serviceable behaviour for frequent earthquakes (50% probability of exceedance in 30 years, i.e,, with 43-year return period) and very low probability of collapse under extremely rare earthquakes (2% of probability of exceedance in 50 years, i.e., 2475-year return period). In the analysis, finite element models with various complexity and refinements are used in different types of analyses using, linear-static, multi-mode pushover, and nonlinear-dynamic analyses, as appropriate. Site-specific seismic input ground motions are used to check the level of performance under the potential hazard, which is likely to be experienced. Sample project conducted using performance-based seismic design procedures is also briefly presented.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
• /
• v.15 no.6
• /
• pp.67-80
• /
• 2011

This paper presents the results of shaking table tests on a 1:5 scale 10-story R.C. wall-type residential building model. The following conclusions are drawn based on the test results. (1) The model responded linear elastically under the excitations simulating an earthquake with a return period of 50 years, and showed a nonlinear response under the excitations simulating the design earthquake of Korea. (2) The model showed a significant strength drop under the maximum considered earthquake, with a return period of 2400 years. (3) The major portion of the resistance to lateral inertia forces came from the walls used for the elevator and stair case. (4) Finally, the damage and failure modes appear to be due to the flexural behavior of walls and slabs. A significant deterioration of stiffness and an elongation of the fundamental periods were observed under increased earthquake excitations.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.29 no.1
• /
• pp.62-66
• /
• 2017

The interest on the potential earthquake magnitude and the request on the earthquake-resistant design examination for coastal structures are emerged because of the recently occurred magnitude 5.8 earthquake in Gyeoung-Ju, Korea. In this study, the magnitude and its confidence intervals with the return periods are estimated using the KMA earthquake magnitude data (over 3.5 and 4.0 in magnitude) by the non-parametric extreme value analysis. In case of using the "over 4.0" data set, the estimated magnitudes on the 50- and 100-years return periods are 5.81 and 5.94, respectively. Their 90% confidence intervals are estimated to be 5.52-6.11, 5.62-6.29, respectively. Even though the estimated magnitudes have limitations not considering the spatial distribution, it can be used to check the stability of the diverse coastal structures in the perspective of the life design because the potential magnitude and its confidence intervals in Korea are estimated based on the available 38-years data by the extreme value analysis.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.33 no.1
• /
• pp.107-114
• /
• 2020

Extreme value distributions have often been used for the analysis (e.g., prediction of return level) of data which are observed from natural disaster. By the extreme value theory, the block maxima asymptotically follow the generalized extreme value distribution as sample size increases; however, this may not hold in a small sample case. For solving this problem, this paper proposes the use of a log-logistic (LLG) distribution whose validity is evaluated through goodness-of-fit test and model selection. The proposed method is illustrated with data from annual maximum earthquake magnitudes of China. Here, we present the predicted return level and confidence interval according to each return period using LLG distribution.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.13 no.4
• /
• pp.365-375
• /
• 2017

Seismic risk management has two main technical aspects: to recommend the construction of high-performance buildings and other structures using earthquake-resistant designs or evaluate existing ones, and to prepare emergency plans using realistic seismic scenarios. An overview of seismic risk assessment methodologies in Croatia is provided with details regarding the components of the assessment procedures: hazard, vulnerability and exposure. For Croatia, hazard is presented with two maps and it is expressed in terms of the peak horizontal ground acceleration during an earthquake, with the return period of 95 or 475 years. A standard building typology catalogue for Croatia has not been prepared yet, but a database for the fourth largest city in Croatia is currently in its initial stage. Two methods for earthquake vulnerability assessment are applied and compared. The first is a relatively simple and fast analysis of potential seismic vulnerability proposed by Croatian researchers using damage index (DI) as a numerical value indicating the level of structural damage, while the second is the Macroseismic method.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
• /
• v.20 no.5
• /
• pp.5-12
• /
• 2019

On November 15, 2017, a unpredictable liquefaction damage was occurred at the $M_L=5.4$ Pohang earthquake and after, many researches have been conducted in Korea. In Korea, where there were no cases of earthquake damage, it has been extremely neglectable in preparing earthquake risk maps and building earthquake systems that corresponded to prevention and preparation. Since it is almost impossible to observe signs and symptoms of drought, floods, and typhoons in advance, it is very effective to predict the impacts and magnitudes of seismic events. In this study, 14,040 borehole data were collected in the metropolitan area and liquefaction evaluation was performed using the amplification factor. Based on this data, liquefaction hazard maps were prepared for ground accelerations of 0.06 g, 0.14 g, 0.22 g, and 0.30 g, including 200years return period to 4,800years return period. Also, the correlation analysis between the earthquake acceleration and LPI was carried out to draw a real-time predictable liquefaction hazard map. As a result, 707 correlation equations in every cells in GIS map were proposed. Finally, the simulation for liquefaction risk mapping against artificial earthquake was performed in the metropolitan area using the proposed correlation equations.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.17-22
• /
• 2010

In this study, a tsunami hazard curve was determined for a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a tsunami event at a Nuclear Power Plant site. A Tsunami catalogue was developed by using the historical tsunami record prior to 1900 and the instrumental tsunami record after 1900. For the evaluation of the return period of the tsunami run-up height, power-law, upper-truncated power law and exponential function were considered for the assessment of regression curves and each result was compared. Although there were in total only 9 tsunami records on the east coast of Korea during the time period of the tsunami catalogue, there is no research like this about tsunami hazard curve evaluation, so this research lays a foundation for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA)

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
• /
• 2001.05a
• /
• pp.565-570
• /
• 2001

Base shear and roof drift relation was acquired from experiment of 3 story ordinary moment resisting frame which was designed using gravity loads. To evaluate the dynamic behavior of the frame, analytical model was generated from experimental result. Dynamic analysis was performed using the analytical model subjected to earthquake ground motions with 500, 1000, and 2400 years of return period. And capacity spectrum method was adopted to find the performance points of the frame. Both dynamic analysis and CSM showed that the performance of the frame meet the life safety objectives suggested by FEMA 273 and ATC 40.

• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• v.19 no.5
• /
• pp.379-393
• /
• 2020

The purpose of this study is to first evaluate the seismic behavior of ageing arch bridges by using the Intensity Measure - based demand and DCFD format, which is referred to as the fragility-hazard format. Then, an investigation is performed for their seismic vulnerability. Analytical models are created for bridges concerning different features and these models are subjected to Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) analysis using a set of 22 earthquake records. The hazard curve and results of IDA analysis are employed to evaluate the return period of exceeding the limit states in the IM-based probabilistic performance-based context. Subsequently, the fragility-hazard format is used to assess factored demand, factored capacity, and the ratio of the factored demand to the factored capacity of the models with respect to different performance objectives. Finally, the vulnerability curves are obtained for the investigated bridges in terms of the loss ratio. The results revealed that decreasing the span length of the unreinforced arch bridges leads to the increase in the return period of exceeding various limit states and factored capacity and decrease in the displacement demand, the probability of failure, the factored demand, as well as the factored demand to factored capacity ratios, loss ratio, and seismic vulnerability. Finally, it is derived that the probability of the need for rehabilitation increases by an increase in the span length of the models.