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http://dx.doi.org/10.9765/KSCOE.2017.29.1.62

Confidence Interval Estimation of the Earthquake Magnitude for Seismic Design using the KMA Earthquake Data  

Cho, Hong Yeon (Ocean Data Science Lab., Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology)
Lee, Gi-Seop (Dept. of Oceanography, Pusan National Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers / v.29, no.1, 2017 , pp. 62-66 More about this Journal
Abstract
The interest on the potential earthquake magnitude and the request on the earthquake-resistant design examination for coastal structures are emerged because of the recently occurred magnitude 5.8 earthquake in Gyeoung-Ju, Korea. In this study, the magnitude and its confidence intervals with the return periods are estimated using the KMA earthquake magnitude data (over 3.5 and 4.0 in magnitude) by the non-parametric extreme value analysis. In case of using the "over 4.0" data set, the estimated magnitudes on the 50- and 100-years return periods are 5.81 and 5.94, respectively. Their 90% confidence intervals are estimated to be 5.52-6.11, 5.62-6.29, respectively. Even though the estimated magnitudes have limitations not considering the spatial distribution, it can be used to check the stability of the diverse coastal structures in the perspective of the life design because the potential magnitude and its confidence intervals in Korea are estimated based on the available 38-years data by the extreme value analysis.
Keywords
Earthquake magnitude; return period; extreme value analysis; confidence intervals; Kernel distribution function; coastal structures;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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