• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.423-453
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• 2010

This study aims at quantifying potential economic effects on the Korean economy of a China-Korea FTA and a Japan-Korea FTA using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Most of the previous studies on them used static CGE models. Key findings of this study are that a China-Korea FTA would lead to a higher increase in Korea's exports and economic growth than a Japan-Korea FTA and that both a China-Korea FTA and a Japan-Korea FTA would cause additional trade deficits to Korea, which would be minuscule compared to Korea' economic trade volume. Since potential economic impacts on Korea's industry output and exports by sector of a China-Korea FTA and a Japan-Korea FTA are forecast to be complementary, i.e., major sectors which would run trade deficits from a Japan-Korea FTA would run trade surpluses from a China-Korea FTA, a simultaneous pursuit of both a China-Korea FTA and a Japan-Korea FTA would be more desirable and beneficial to Korea. This study shows that a dynamic CGE model which can take explicit account of international capital mobility and ownership is required for more precise estimation of effects of the FTAs.

• Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.211-228
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• 2023

The Korea-US FTA was one of the most controversial FTAs Korea has ever signed and was expected to have a significant effect on the agriculture sector, especially the livestock industry. This study ex-post analyzed the impact of the Korea-US FTA on the Korean beef industry including the Jeonnam province using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. According to the scenario analysis results, if there was no Korea-US FTA, the beef imports would be reduced to as low as 0.24% to 4.19% compared to the Baseline applying existing Korea-US FTA beef tariff rates over the 2012 to 2022 periods. In addition, if there was no Korea-US FTA, the agricultural product value of Jeonnam and national Korean beef cattle would increase from 0.25% to 7.37% and 0.25% to 7.33%, respectively, compared to the Baseline. The results of the analysis are expected to be used as important information for policy establishment in preparation for CPTPP and supplementation of current FTA policies regarding Korean beef cattle not only for the central government but also Jeonnam province.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.468-480
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• 2016

As the existing FTAs' implementations are being accelerated, ex-post assessments, such as tariff schedules and agricultural trade analyses results, have been emerging as important national issues for the agricultural sector. Korea-Chile FTA is the first FTA in Korea, and more than ten years have passed since April 2004. It will be necessary to measure the impacts of the agreement on the domestic agricultural industry by analyzing concessions made on traded items of farm products on prices, agricultural trade, and so on. The purpose of this study is to prepare for the request for ex-post assessments on the agricultural sector by trade negotiation procedural law. Additionally, by providing policy direction for agricultural policy segments requiring amendments and supplements through an ex-post assessment, we can more objectively evaluate the conflicting arguments between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Current evaluation methods about ex-post impact assessment of FTA are generally comparison analysis on the change of trade balance before and after FTA implementation. However, this simple comparison analysis cannot be said to pure FTA effects and objective, tightening economic impact assessment of the FTA because of all combined situations such as effects of exchange rates, international macroeconomic changes, climate change, and the occurrence of pests. This research attempts to use dynamic analysis as its ex-post assessment methodology and is expected to contribute to future policy evaluation.

• Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.31-57
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• 2020

Korea-US FTA amendment became effective January 1, 2019 through several trade negotiations between the two countries. These amendments did not include changes in the agricultural sector. However, given the policy direction of the Trump administration, it is difficult to be certain that the existing Korea-US FTA on the agricultural sector will remain unchanged. This study examines the potential impact of changes in the US beef import tariff rates under the Korea-US FTA, which is progressively eliminated until 2026 using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. The modelling system is simulated with 100% decreases of tariff rates over 2020~2026 period and then compared to the baseline which is developed based on the current Korea-US FTA tariff rates. According to the scenario analyses results, 100% decreases of US beef tariff rate lowered Korean beef cattle production value up to 4.23%. Looking at this change in terms of absolute value rather than percentage, the total production value over 2020~2026 is expected to decrease by 815 billion won compared to Baseline. This reduction in production value in dynamic analysis is 67 billion won higher than the comparative static analysis.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.695-728
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• 2009

This study aims to conduct a quantitative assessment of potential economic impacts on the Korean economy of the concessions of the Korea-U.S. FTA (KORUS FTA) which was signed on April 1, 2007 using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, with all sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing sectors and services industry, considered for simulations. In addition, the timing of trade liberalization based on the concessions agreed on in the KORUS FTA talks for all sectors is explicitly considered. Major findings of this study are that Korea' real GDP would rise by 4.67%~4.99% by 2023 and the contribution of liberalization of services trade to Korea's economic growth would be 0.3%~0.62% points. Trade liberalization in service sectors would lead to lowered import prices and an increase in FDI, which are to contribute to an higher output and exports of sectors which make an intensive use of imported inputs and finally a higher economic growth of the Korean economy as a whole. For that to happen, a ratification of the KORUS FTA by the National Assembly of Korea and the U.S. Congress is required.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.7
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• pp.648-655
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• 2016

As the FTAs' implementations are accelerated, an Ex-post assessment, such as an analysis of the tariff schedule and agricultural trade has been emerging as an important national issue for an agricultural sector Korea-EU FTA, which was to be implemented in the five years from July 2016 as one of the giant FTA. The purpose of this study was to determine the demand of an ex-post assessment on agricultural sector as a trade negotiation procedural law. In addition, by providing policy direction for the agricultural policy part requiring amendments and supplements through ex-post assessment, the conflicting arguments between agricultural and non-agricultural sector can be evaluated more objectively. The current evaluation method on the economic impact ex-post assessment of a FTA is generally compared using the change in trade balance before and after the time of FTA implementation. On the other hand, this comparison cannot be said to be the pure FTA effects and objective, tightening economic impact assessment of the FTA in all combined situations, such as the effects of exchange rates and international macroeconomic changes and climate change & occurrence of pests. Over the last 4 years, however, Korea-EU FTA's total accumulated agricultural GDP loss was measured to be 2,178 billion by these research attempts with dynamic analysis as ex-post assessment methodology. The greatest impact was mainly livestock and pork followed by cereals and vegetables. In addition, this research is expected to contribute to policy evaluations in the future.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.9
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• pp.377-385
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• 2017

This study analyzed the impact of the implementation of 14 FTAs on the domestic agricultural sector through aneconomic post-impact assessment using the dynamic analysis method. As a result of the implementation of the FTAs, agricultural production decreased significantly, mainly in the livestock and fruit sectors. Most of the previous studieswere limited to the post-impact assessment of individual FTAs, which does not reflect the fact that the implementation of a number of FTAs results ina combinationof trade creation, trade transitions, and FTA accumulation effects. Therefore, this study provides amore objective and comprehensive evaluation of the effects of FTAs in the agricultural sector, and contributes to some extent to the evaluation of the policy directions necessary for revising and supplementing the domestic measures needed to supplement the FTAs. Of course, a more sophisticated analysis is needed to separate the impact of these complementary domestic measures and the performance of the general agricultural project.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.307-329
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• 2023

This paper studies how the free trade agreements (FTAs) have changed the dynamics of Korea's imports since 1996. Specifically, the dynamic regression analysis on the transition of trade liberalization discovers three main findings: (1) import values of Korea increase gradually as FTAs enter into force; (2) the extensive margins of import work as a major source of the trade effect in the transition episode of FTAs; (3) the extensive margins of import tend to increase even before FTAs enter into force. This noble forward-looking effect suggests some potential foreign exporters or exporting goods enter the Korean market, especially when FTAs negotiation starts. It supports the early entry behavior of potential exporters found in recent international trade literature.

• Journal of Mushroom
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.200-208
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• 2023

This study was conducted to investigate the reasons for the decreased importation of fresh Shiitake mushrooms into Korea after implementation of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Monthly time-series data from January 2009 to December 2022 were analyzed using regression analysis and vector autoregression (VAR) models to determine the relationship between the amounts of fresh and spawn Shiitake mushrooms imported. The analysis revealed that a major reason for the decreased importation of fresh Shiitake mushrooms was an increase in mushroom spawn imports after Korea-China FTA implementation. The same results were obtained from the VAR model analysis. However, in terms of the dynamic changes in amount of fresh shiitake mushrooms imported, it was confirmed that the impact of the change in mushroom spawn imports could increase the amount of Shiitake mushrooms imported.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.725-731
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• 2020

This study analyzed the impact of increasing orange imports on the domestic fruit markets, focusing on the period January to May when oranges were imported and sold intensively after implementation of the Korea-US FTA. In this study, only citrus fruits that compete with U.S. oranges were limited to domestic fruits; of these, Hallabong, which is consistent with consumption of U.S. oranges, was selected as an analysis target. A dynamic recursive simulation model was established to evaluate the ex-post effects of the Korea-U.S. FTA, and to conduct mid and long-term forecasts for the Hallabong market. In addition, major policy simulations were performed on the Hallabong market to assess the effect of each scenario. The ex-post impact evaluation reveals that between December and February, Hallabong had no effect on the seasonal tariff of oranges. However, from 2012 to 2017, the actual import decreased by 21.9 billion won annually due to the TRQ, with the accumulated 6-year decrease being 131.5 billion won. Major policy simulation analysis shows that the change in the unit cost of import due to the U.S orange crop and the increase of Hallabong export will help in expanding the market, and thus effectively increase income.