• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.209-217
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• 2021

Although forest fires are more often triggered by artificial causes than by natural causes, the combustion conditions that spread forest fire damage over a large area are affected by natural phenomena. Therefore, using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), which can analyze the dependent and causal relationships between various factors, this study evaluated the causal relationships and relative influences between forest fire, weather, and drought, taking Gangwon Province as our sample region. The results indicated that the impact of drought on forest fires was 27 % and that of the weather was 38 %. In addition, forest fires in spring accounted for about 60 % of total forest fires. This indicatesthat along with meteorological factors, the autumn and winter droughts in the previous year affected forest fires. In assessing the risk of forest fires, if severe meteorological droughts occur in autumn and winter, the probability of forest fires may increase in the spring of the following year.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.427-436
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• 2020

It is uncertain how global climate change will influence future drought characteristics over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to project the future droughts using climate change and land use change scenarios over the Korean peninsula with the land surface modeling system, i.e., Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro). The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 are used as future climate scenarios and the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), specifically SSP2, is adopted for the land use scenario. The using Threshold Level Method (TLM), we identify future hydrological and ecological drought events with runoff and Net Primary Productivity (NPP), respectively, and assess drought characteristics of durations and intensities in different scenarios. Results show that the duration of drought is longer over RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future (2031-2050) and RCP8.5-SSP2 (2080-2099) for the far future for hydrological drought. On the other hand, RCP2.6-SSP2 for the far future and RCP8.5-SSP2 for the near future show longer duration for ecological drought. In addition, the drought intensities in both hydrological and ecological drought show different characteristics with the drought duration. The intensity of the hydrological droughts was greatly affected by threshold level methods and RCP2.6-SSP2 for far future shows the severest intensity. However, for ecological drought, the difference of the intensity among the threshold level is not significant and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future show the severest intensity. This study suggests a possible future drought characteristics is in the Korea peninsula using combined climate and land use changes, which will help the community to understand and manage the future drought risks.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.33-41
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• 2023

Recently, global warming has accelerated climate change, increased extreme weather phenomena, and increased the frequency and intensity of weather disasters, leading to increasing uncertainty about the power production of new and renewable energy that is sensitive to weather. In fact, it has been reported that a number of damage to hydroelectric power generation have occurred due to weather disasters. Therefore, using the hydroelectric power generation performance data of Chungju Dam, meteorological data of Chungju Meteorological Observatory, and operation data of Chungju Dam, this study investigated the effect of meteorological disasters on hydroelectric power generation through structural equation modeling considering the number and intensity of meteorological disasters per month. The results indicated that the increased drought occurrence affected the decreased hydroelectric power generation by about 38.3 %, however the increased hydroelectric power generation could not explained by the increased flood occurrence. In conclusion, an increased drought occurrence in future may significantly influence hydroelectric power generation.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.55 no.3
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• pp.13-24
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• 2013

Agriculture is affected directly by climate conditions and changes, and it is necessary to understand the impact of climate change on agricultural reservoirs which are the main water resources for paddy fields in Korea. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the anti-drought capacity including water supply capability (WSC) and drought response ability (DRA) of agricultural reservoirs based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of CanESM2 (The Second Generation Earth System Model) provided by CCCma (Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis). The WSC and DRA were estimated using frequency analysis and runs theory. The six reservoirs (Yooshin, Nogok, Kumsung, Songgok, Gapyung, Seoma) were selected considering geographical characteristics and design criteria of reservoir capacity. In case of Seoma reservoir, more than 10 year drought return period (DRP), the variation of the WSC was estimated larger than the others. In case of Yooshin reservior (2~5 DRP) DRC was decreased in 2025s under RCP8.5. These results could be utilized for agricultural reservoirs management and future design criteria considering climate change impacts on paddy irrigation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.51-51
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• 2019

기후변화 따라 과거에 경험하지 못했던 이상 수문기상 및 기상재해가 유발되며, 그 피해의 규모는 매년 증가한다. 그 중 가뭄은 미국 해양기상청(NOAA)이 선정한 20세기 최대 자연재해 중 상위 5위 안에 랭크되었으며 가뭄의 피해와 영향력은 막대하다고 언급하였다. 가뭄은 발생과정과 피해 영향에 따라 기상학적, 농업적, 수문학적, 사회경제학적 가뭄으로 구분할 수 있으며 직 간접적으로 영향을 미치고 기상학적 가뭄에서 수문학적 가뭄 등으로 가뭄의 종류가 변화되며 이를 가뭄전이라고 부른다,. 본 연구에서는 기상학적 가뭄에서 수문학적 가뭄으로 전이되는 과정을 분석하기 위하여 Weather Research and Forecasting and Model Hydrological modeling extension package (WRF-Hydro) 모형을 한반도 대상으로 구축하였다. 모형의 정확성을 향상시키기 위해 충주댐, 소양강댐, 용담댐, 남강댐의 유입량과 모형 유출량을 비교 분석하였으며, 유출에 영향을 미치는 지면 유출, 표면 거칠기와 같은 파라미터를 보정하여 주었다. 위와 같이 구축, 보정된 모형을 활용하여 모의된 유출량을 이용하여 수문학적 가뭄지수 Standardized Streamflow Drought Index(SSFI)를 도출하여 기상학적 가뭄지수 Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)와 비교하여 기상학적 가뭄이 수문학적 가뭄으로 전이되는 과정을 가뭄의 빈도, 강도, 특성 등에 초점을 맞추어 분석하였다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.12
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• pp.985-999
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• 2019

Over the last decade, droughts have become more severe and frequent in many regions, and several studies have been conducted to explore the recent drought. Copula-based bivariate drought frequency analysis has been widely used to evaluate drought risk in the context of point frequency analysis. However, the relatively significant uncertainties in the parameters are problematic when available data are limited. For this reason, the primary purpose of this study is to develop a regional drought frequency model based on the Copula function. All parameters, including marginal and copula functions in the regional frequency model, were estimated simultaneously. Here, we present a case study of recent drought 2013-2015 over the Han-River watershed where severe drought risk is consistently found to increase. The proposed model provided a reliable way to significantly reduce the uncertainty of parameters with a Bayesian modeling framework. The uncertainty of the joint return period in the regional frequency analysis is nearly three times lower than that of the point frequency analysis. Accordingly, DIC values in the regional frequency analysis model are significantly decreased by 15. The results confirm that the proposed model is not only reliably representing characteristics of historical droughts and dependencies between drought variables, but also providing the efficacy of understanding regional drought characteristics.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 1992.07a
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• pp.411-418
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• 1992

The purpose of this study is to develop dynamic-stochastic models that can forecast the inflow into reservoir during low/drought periods and flood periods. For the formulation of the models, the discrete transfer function is utilized to construct the deterministic characteristics, and the ARIMA model is utilized to construct the stochastic characteristics of residuals. The stochastic variations and structures of time series on hydrological data are examined by employing the auto/cross covariance function and auto/cross correlation function. Also, general modeling processes and forecasting method are used the model building methods of Box and Jenkins. For the verifications and applications of the developed models, the Chungju multi-purpose reservoir which is located in the South Han river systems is selected. Input data required are the current and past reservoir inflow and Yungchun water levels. In order to transform the water level at Yungchon into streamflows, the water level-streamflows rating curves at low/drought periods and flood periods are estimated. The models are calibrated with the flood periods of 1988 and 1989 and hourly data for 1990 flood are analyzed. Also, for the low/drought periods, daily data of 1988 and 1989 are calibrated, and daily data for 1989 are analyzed.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.112-119
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• 2009

Based on the study of soil water dynamics, this study is to suggest an advanced stochastic soil water model for future study for drought application. One distinguishable remark of this study is the derivation of soil water dynamic controling equation for 3-stage loss functions in order to understand the temporal behaviour of soil water with reaction to the precipitation. In terms of modeling, a model with rather simpler structure can be applied to regenerate the key characteristics of soil water behavior, and especially the probabilistic solution of the derived soil water dynamic equation can be helpful to provide better and clearer understanding of soil water behavior. Moreover, this study will be the future cornerstone of applying to more realistic phenomenon such as drought management.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.8
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• pp.569-582
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• 2020

Recently, Korea has faced a change in the pattern of water use due to urbanization, which has caused difficulties in understanding the rainfall-runoff process and optimizing the allocation of available water resources. In this perspective, spatially downscaled analysis of the water balance is required for the efficient operation of water resources in the National Water Management Plan and the River Basin Water Resource Management Plan. However, the existing water balance analysis does not fully consider water circulation and availability in the basin, thus, the obtained results provide limited information in terms of decision making. This study aims at developing a novel water circulation analysis model that is designed to support a quasi-real-time assessment of water availability along the river. The water circulation model proposed in this study improved the problems that appear in the existing water balance analysis. More importantly, the results showed a significant improvement over the existing model, especially in the low flow simulation. The proposed modeling framework is expected to provide primary information for more realistic hydrological drought monitoring and drought countermeasures by providing streamflow information in quasi-real-time through a more accurate natural flow estimation approach with highly complex network.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.84-87
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• 2011

This paper describes the application of the three sustainable design elements for a residential project in the county of Los Angeles, USA. The first design element is the green building design in which a base model will be created using the Autodesk REVIT MEP program for the analysis by Building Information Modeling (BIM) for the energy analysis modeling process to determine the energy savings for each of the recommended design features. The second element is the Low Impact Development design for the site design using specialty material and structural devices for infiltration and recycling of storm water for reuse. The third element is the application of drought tolerant plant species in the site's landscaping design as a means to conserve water. The construction cost associated with the application of these three elements will be reviewed to determine the practicality and effectiveness of this sustainable design approach.