KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Evaluating Impact Factors of Forest Fire Occurrences in Gangwon Province Using PLS-SEM: A Focus on Drought and Meteorological Factors

PLS-SEM을 이용한 강원도 산불 발생의 영향 요인 평가 : 가뭄 및 기상학적 요인을 중심으로

  • 유지영 (한양대학교(ERICA) 공학기술연구소) ;
  • 한정우 (텍사스 A&M 대학교 생명농업공학과) ;
  • 김동욱 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교(ERICA) 건설환경공학과)
  • Received : 2020.09.11
  • Accepted : 2020.11.27
  • Published : 2021.06.01
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Abstract

Although forest fires are more often triggered by artificial causes than by natural causes, the combustion conditions that spread forest fire damage over a large area are affected by natural phenomena. Therefore, using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), which can analyze the dependent and causal relationships between various factors, this study evaluated the causal relationships and relative influences between forest fire, weather, and drought, taking Gangwon Province as our sample region. The results indicated that the impact of drought on forest fires was 27 % and that of the weather was 38 %. In addition, forest fires in spring accounted for about 60 % of total forest fires. This indicatesthat along with meteorological factors, the autumn and winter droughts in the previous year affected forest fires. In assessing the risk of forest fires, if severe meteorological droughts occur in autumn and winter, the probability of forest fires may increase in the spring of the following year.

산불은 대부분 인위적인 원인에 의해 발생되지만, 산불의 피해가 대규모로 확산하는 연소 조건은 자연현상에 의해 영향을 받게 된다. 본 연구에서는 여러 인자 사이의 의존 및 인과관계를 분석할 수 있는 부분최소제곱 구조방정식 모형(PLS-SEM)을 이용하여 기상 및 가뭄이 산불 발생에 미치는 인과관계와 영향 정도를 평가하였다. 그 결과 지난 2015년부터 약 5년 기간 동안 발생한 강원도 산불에 미치는 가뭄의 영향은 27 %, 기상학적 영향은 38 %로 확인되었다. 또한, 강원도에서 발생한 산불 중에서 봄철에 발생한 산불은 약 60 %의 비율을 차지하며, 이는 기상학적 요인과 더불어 이전 연도의 가을과 겨울철 가뭄이 산불 발생에 영향을 미치는 것으로 해석된다. 산불 발생위험을 평가하는 데 있어 극심한 기상학적 가뭄이 가을과 겨울철에 발생했다면, 이듬해 봄에는 산불의 발생확률은 증가할 가능성이 있다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 행정안전부 재난안전 취약핵심역량 도약기술 개발사업(2020-MOIS33-006)과 한국연구재단의 개인기초연구사업(NRF-2020R1C1C1014636)의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임.

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