KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Investigating the Effects of Meteorological Disasters on Hydroelectric Power Generation Using a Structural Equation Modeling

구조방정식모형을 이용한 기상재해가 수력발전을 통한 전력 생산에 미치는 영향 분석

  • 김지영 (한양대학교 대학원 스마트시티공학과 ) ;
  • 변성호 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 유지영 (한양대학교(ERICA) 공학기술연구소) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교(ERICA) 건설환경공학과)
  • Received : 2022.06.30
  • Accepted : 2022.11.05
  • Published : 2023.02.01
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Recently, global warming has accelerated climate change, increased extreme weather phenomena, and increased the frequency and intensity of weather disasters, leading to increasing uncertainty about the power production of new and renewable energy that is sensitive to weather. In fact, it has been reported that a number of damage to hydroelectric power generation have occurred due to weather disasters. Therefore, using the hydroelectric power generation performance data of Chungju Dam, meteorological data of Chungju Meteorological Observatory, and operation data of Chungju Dam, this study investigated the effect of meteorological disasters on hydroelectric power generation through structural equation modeling considering the number and intensity of meteorological disasters per month. The results indicated that the increased drought occurrence affected the decreased hydroelectric power generation by about 38.3 %, however the increased hydroelectric power generation could not explained by the increased flood occurrence. In conclusion, an increased drought occurrence in future may significantly influence hydroelectric power generation.

최근 지구온난화로 인해 기후변화가 가속화되고, 극한 기상현상으로 인한 기상재해의 발생빈도와 강도 또한 증가하여, 날씨에 민감한 신재생에너지의 전력 생산에 대한 불확실성이 커지고 있다. 실제로 댐을 이용하는 수력발전소에서도 최근 기상재해로 인한 수력발전 피해가 다수 보고되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 충주댐 수력발전 실적 자료와 충주 기상관측소, 충주댐의 운영 자료를 바탕으로 기상재해의 월별 발생 횟수와 강도를 산정하여 구조방정식모형을 통해 가뭄과 홍수가 수력발전을 통한 전력 생산에 미치는 영향을 파악하였다. 이를 위해서는 충주댐 수력발전소 발전 실적 자료를 수집하고, 기상재해 관련 자료를 수집하였으며, 구조방정식모형을 통해 수력발전에 대한 기상재해의 영향을 분석하였다. 그 결과 가뭄 발생의 증가는 수력발전을 통한 전력 생산의 감소에 38.3 %의 영향이 있지만, 홍수 발생의 증가는 수력발전을 통한 전력 생산의 증가를 설명할 수 없었다. 미래에 가뭄 발생이 증가한다면 수력발전을 통한 전력 생산에 대한 영향 또한 커질 것이다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 결과물은 환경부의 재원으로 한국환경산업기술원의 가뭄 대응 물관리 혁신기술 개발사업의 지원을 받아 연구되었습니다 (2022003610001).

References

  1. Cuartas, L. A., Cunha, A. P. M. D. A., Alves, J. A., Parra, L. M. P., Deusdara-Leal, K., Costa, L. C. O., Molina, R. D., Amore, D., Broedel, E., Seluchi, M. E., Cunningham, C., Alvala, R. C. D. S. and Marengo, J. A. (2022). "Recent hydrological droughts in Brazil and their impact on hydropower generation." Water, Vol. 14, No. 4, 601.
  2. Fornell, C. and Larcker, D. F. (1981). "Evaluating structural equation models with unobservable variables and measurement error." Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 39-50. https://doi.org/10.2307/3151312
  3. Grady, C. and Dennis, L. (2022). Hydropower's future is clouded by droughts, floods and climate change - it's also essential to the US electric grid, The Conversation, Available at: https://theconversation.com/hydropowers-future-is-clouded-by-droughts-floods-and-climate-change-its-also-essential-to-the-us-electric-grid-182314 (Accessed: September 13, 2022).
  4. Hair, J. F., Sarstedt, M., Pieper, T. M. and Ringle, C. M. (2012). "The use of partial least squares structural equation modelling in strategic management research: A review of past practices and recommendations for future applications." Long Range Planning, Vol. 45, No. 5, pp. 320-340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lrp.2012.09.008
  5. Keophila, V., Promwungkwa, A. and Ngamsanroaj, K. (2019). "Effectiveness of cascades reservoir for flood control operation and electricity production in Nam Ngum river." Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Vol. 1175, No. 1, 012276.
  6. Kim, D. W., Yoo, J. Y., Son, H. J. and Kim, T. W. (2021). "The relationship of drought frequency and duration of time scales." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 54, No. 3, pp. 145-156 (in https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.3.145
  7. Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) (2020). Korean climate change assessment report 2020 (an abridged version) (in Korean).
  8. Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) (2022). Hydrological weather drought information system, Available at: https://hydro.kma.go.kr/front/intro.do (Accessed: Jan 2, 2023).
  9. Korea Power Exchange (KPX) (2022). Electric power statistics information system (ePSIS), Available at: https://epsis.kpx.or.kr/epsisnew/ (Accessed: Jan 2, 2023).
  10. K-water (2022). Public data open portal, Available at: https://opendata.kwater.or.kr/main.do (Accessed: Jan 2, 2023).
  11. SmartPLS (2022). SmartPLS3, Available at: https://www.smartpls.com/ (Accessed: Jan 2, 2023).
  12. Statistics Korea (2022). Korean statistical information service (KOSIS), Available at: https://kosis.kr/index/index.do (Accessed: Jan 2, 2023).
  13. Van Vliet, M. T., Sheffield, J., Wiberg, D. and Wood, E. F. (2016). "Impacts of recent drought and warm years on water resources and electricity supply worldwide." Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, No. 12, 124021.
  14. Yoo, J. Y., Kim, J. G., Han, J. W. and Kim, T. W. (2021). "Impact assessment between heatwave and drought based on PLS-SEM." KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research, KSCE, Vol. 41, No. 2, pp. 113-121 (in Korean).  https://doi.org/10.12652/KSCE.2021.41.2.0113