• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.384-384
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• 2023

To enable the government and local authorities to anticipate the public's response to emergency measures, it is crucial to formulate theories on residents' behavioral reactions and establish appropriate evaluation models that cater to local conditions. However, prior research has primarily relied on simple surveys to assess individual disaster preparedness progress, while in the United States, the National Household Survey explores the behavior, attitudes, and motivations of citizens. Nonetheless, relying on simple survey analyses presents limitations. Therefore, our study aims to develop a social science behavioral analysis model that includes risk perception and emergency preparedness evaluation items for drought. We will achieve this by examining both domestic and foreign behavioral models. The ultimate goal is to present an effective response strategy for managing drought risk that incorporates the developed model. The drought risk perception and behavioral model employed in this study involves evaluating individual risk perception of drought disasters, individual effectiveness, and motivation analysis for drought disasters, government satisfaction with drought disaster management, and individual acceptance of drought prevention policies.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제41권10호
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• pp.1045-1058
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• 2008

가뭄은 장시간동안 강수의 부족으로 발생하는 자연현상이며, 지역에 따라 해마다 여러 가지 피해를 발생시키고 있다. 특히 1994$\sim$1995년과 2001년에 발생한 가뭄은 피해가 매우 심각하였으며 중.소규모의 저수지가 바닥을 드러냈을 뿐 아니라 상당한 경제적인 손실도 발생하였다. 하지만 가뭄관리계획에 의해 저수지를 통한 최적의 물 공급방안을 제시함으로써 이러한 피해들을 최소화 시킬 수 있을 것이다. 본 연구에서는 최적의 저수지 운영을 위한 전문가시스템을 개발하여 수문학적 가뭄지수인(Modified Surface Water Supply Index, MSWSI) 값과 저수지 유입량과의 연계를 통한 가상가뭄모의운영(Virtual Drought Exercise, VDE)을 실시한 후 도출된 결과를 바탕으로 가뭄단계에 따른 댐 운영대안을 제시하였다. 가상가뭄모의운영으로 여러 가지 가뭄사상에 대한 효과적인 장 단기 대안을 도출할 수 있었으며 가뭄기간동안 최적의 물 공급방안을 준비하는데 효과적으로 사용될 수 있을 것이라고 판단된다.

• 물과 미래
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.221-233
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• 1996

본 연구에서는 가뭄지수를 간단하고, 신뢰성 있고 그리고 쉽게 구할 수 있는 방법을 제안함으로써, 가뭄식 도시지역의 생활용수 및 공업용수의 부족에 대비한 용수수급대책 마련에 이용할 수 있도록 하였다. 가뭄지수 산정은 Phillips 가뭄지수법을 이용하였다. Phillips 가뭄지수법은 월강수량의 초과확률에 근거를 두지만, 실시간 현 가뭄 상황을 파악할 필요가 있을 경우 일강수량자료를 이용할 수 있어 실용성이 아주 컸다. 적용성 검토를 위해 주요 공업지역인 울산시와 포항시의 생활용수 수급체계를 이용하였으며, 그 우수성이 확인되었다. 따라서 본 연구성과는 다른 도시 지역에서의 비상가뭄대책 수립에도 매우 유용한 방법으로 사용될 수 있다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.375-384
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• 2003

우리나라는 거의 5년마다 심한 가뭄이 발생하고 있고 과거에 발생한 많은 가뭄의 경험으로 제도적 측면에서 중앙정부, 지방정부 및 물 관리기관의 제휴에 의하여 원활한 가뭄대책을 수행하고 있다. 그러나 이들 가뭄 대책은 가뭄이 심하게 진행된 상황에서 이루어지는 경우가 많이 발생하고 있다. 이와 같은 원인은 체계적인 가뭄 모니터링과 가뭄단계 기준의 미비에서 찾을 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄지수의 시공간적인 해석과 과거 정부의 가뭄대책을 통하여 경보를 위한 가뭄단계 기준을 설정하였다. 가뭄단계는 준비, 주의, 경보 및 비상의 4단계로 분류하였고 각 단계에 해당되는 가뭄지수의 범위 및 가뭄면적을 제시하였다. 또한 Web 기반으로 개발된 가뭄 모니터링 시스템을 제시하였다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제61권3호
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• pp.1-14
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• 2019

North Korea has frequently suffered from extreme agricultural crop droughts, which have led to food shortages, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The increasing frequency of extreme droughts, due to global warming and climate change, has increased the importance of enhancing the national capacity for drought management. Historically, a meteorological drought index based on data collected from weather stations has been widely used. But it has limitations in terms of the distribution of weather stations and the spatial pattern of drought impacts. Satellite-based data can be obtained with the same accuracy and at regular intervals, and is useful for long-term change analysis and environmental monitoring and wide area access in time and space. The Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), a satellite-based drought index using the ratio of potential and actual evaporation, is being used to detect drought response as a index of the droughts occurring rapidly over short periods of time. It is more accurate and provides faster analysis of drought conditions compared to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). In this study, we analyze drought events during 2015-2017 in North Korea using the ESI satellite-based drought index to determine drought response by comparing with it with the SPI and SPEI drought indices.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제63권4호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2021

Agricultural drought is a natural phenomenon that is not easy to observe and predict and is difficult to quantify. In South Korea, the amount of agricultural water used is large and the types of use are varied, so even if an agricultural drought occurs due to insufficient precipitation, the drought actually felt in the irrigated area is it can be temporally and spatially different. In order to interpret the general drought in the past, drought disasters were evaluated using single indicators such as drought damage area, precipitation shortage status, and drought index, and a comprehensive drought management system is needed through drought diagnosis survey. Therefore, we intend to conduct research on agricultural drought assessment and diagnosis using re-evaluation of agricultural facilities and irrigation water supply network due to changes in various conditions such as climate change, irrigation canal network, and evaluation of water supply capacity of agricultural facilities. In this study, agricultural drought diagnosis was conducted on two agricultural reservoirs located in Sangju, Gyeongsangbuk-do, with structural or non-structural evaluations to increase spatiotemporal water supply and efficiency in terms of water shortages. The results of the agricultural drought diagnosis evaluation can be used to identify irrigated areas and canal network vulnerable to drought and to prioritize drought response.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.31-45
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• 2018

This study implemented the prediction of drought properties (number of drought events, intensity, duration) using the user-oriented systematical procedures of downscaling climate change scenarios based the multiple global climate models (GCMs), AIMS (APCC Integrated Modeling Solution) program. The drought properties were defined and estimated with Effective Drought Index (EDI). The optimal 10 models among 29 GCMs were selected, by the estimation of the spatial and temporal reproducibility about the five climate change indices related with precipitation. In addition, Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) as the downscaling technique is much better in describing the observed precipitation events than Spatial Disaggregation Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM). Even though the procedure was systematically applied, there are still limitations in describing the observed spatial precipitation properties well due to the offset of spatial variability in multi-model ensemble (MME) analysis. As a result, the farther into the future, the duration and the number of drought generation will be decreased, while the intensity of drought will be increased. Regionally, the drought at the central regions of the Korean Peninsula is expected to be mitigated, while that at the southern regions are expected to be severe.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제57권1호
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• pp.45-58
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• 2024

기후변화로 인해 가뭄의 빈도, 심도 및 지속기간 등이 증가함에 따라 가뭄 위험도가 높아질 것으로 전망되고 있다. 가뭄 위험도는 수문기상학적 요인뿐만 아니라 용수의 공급 및 수요와 관련 있다. 최근에는 기후변화와 함께 사회경제적인 요인도 가뭄 위험도를 높이는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 따라서 미래에 발생가능한 심각한 가뭄에 적절히 대응하기 위하여 다양한 조건에서의 가뭄 위험도를 전망할 필요가 있다. 또한, 다양한 시나리오를 고려하는 것은 미래의 가뭄 위험도 전망이 가지는 불확실성을 줄이는데 도움이 될 것이다. 본 연구에서는 한국의 160개 시군구에 대한 기후변화 시나리오와 인구 및 용수 수요량 등을 고려하여 가뭄 시나리오를 작성하고 이에 따른 가뭄 위험도를 전망하였으며, 가뭄 위험도 전망 결과를 토대로 가뭄 위험 단계를 재설정하였다. 그 결과 한국의 가뭄 위험도는 과거에 비해 2020, 2025 및 2030년에서 모두 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 특히, 기준 및 고위 시나리오에 따르면 2030년에는 가뭄 위험도가 과거보다 약 2배 정도 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 산정된 가뭄 전망 결과를 새로운 가뭄 위험 단계에 적용한 결과, 기준 및 고위 시나리오에서는 2020년 및 2030년에 한국 대부분의 지역에서 대응(V) 단계로 나타났다.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제46권4호
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• pp.999-1006
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• 2019

Recently, the quantitative management of agricultural water supply, which is the main source for water consumption in Korea, has become more important due to the effective water management organization of the Korean government. In this study, the estimation method for irrigation supply based on agricultural reservoir storage data was improved compared to previous research, in which drought year selection was unclear, and the outlier data for the rainfall-irrigation supply were not eliminated in the regression analysis. In this study, the drought year was selected by the ratio of annual precipitation to mean annual precipitation and the storage rate observed before the start of irrigation. The outlier data for the rainfall-irrigation supply were eliminated by the Grubbs & Beck test. The proposed method was applied to nine agricultural reservoirs for validation. As a result, the ratio of annual precipitation to mean annual precipitation is less than 53% and the storage rate observed before the start of irrigation is less than 55% it was judged to be the drought year. In addition, the drought supply factor, K, was found to be 0.70 on average, showing closer results to the observed reservoir rates. This shows that water management at the real is appling drought year practice. It was shown that the performance of the proposed method was satisfactory with NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) and R² (coefficient of determiniation) except for a few cases.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권1호
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• pp.37-45
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• 2015

Recent droughts in South Korea have had large economic and environmental impacts across the country. Changes in rainfall and hydrologic patterns due to climate change can potentially increase the occurrence of extreme droughts and affect the future availability of water resources. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate drought vulnerability for water resources planning and management, and identify the appropriate mitigation actions to conduct a drought risk analysis in the context of climate change. The objective of this study is changes in the temporal trends of drought characteristics in South Korea to examine drought impacts under climate change. First, the changes of drought occurrence were analyzed by applying the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations, and were analyzed for the past 30 years (1981-2010), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios (2011-2100). Second, the changes on the temporal trends of drought characteristics were performed using run theory, which was used to compare drought duration, severity, and magnitude to allow for quantitative evaluations under past and future climate conditions. These results show the high influence of climate change on drought phenomenon, and will contribute to water resources management and drought countermeasures to climate change.