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A New Algorithm for Automated Modeling of Seasonal Time Series Using Box-Jenkins Techniques

  • Song, Qiang;Esogbue, Augustine O.
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.9-22
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    • 2008
  • As an extension of a previous work by the authors (Song and Esogbue, 2006), a new algorithm for automated modeling of nonstationary seasonal time series is presented in this paper. Issues relative to the methodology for building automatically seasonal time series models and periodic time series models are addressed. This is achieved by inspecting the trend, estimating the seasonality, determining the orders of the model, and estimating the parameters. As in our previous work, the major instruments used in the model identification process are correlograms of the modeling errors while the least square method is used for parameter estimation. We provide numerical illustrations of the performance of the new algorithms with respect to building both seasonal time series and periodic time series models. Additionally, we consider forecasting and exercise the models on some sample time series problems found in the literature as well as real life problems drawn from the retail industry. In each instance, the models are built automatically avoiding the necessity of any human intervention.

How Can Customer Experience on CDJ Be Shaped?: Can Rose Be Tamed?

  • Lee, Sang mi;Han, Sang man
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.87-105
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    • 2020
  • With the development of Information Technology, customers require promptly higher quality products and services. Companies try to make newly digital marketing strategies, but there are no empirical researches on them. This article empirically presents a new perspective that companies can shape the customer decision journey ahead by coordinating customer experience. In this article, based on Elaborated Likelihood Model (ELM) theory, customer experience consists of the emotional or cognitive experience. We surveyed about 200 subjects (N = 217) in their 20s and 30s based on the International Music Industry Association's Music Listening 2019 report, then analyzed four different models (before personalization-cognitive experience, before personalization-emotional experience, after personalization- cognitive experience, after personalization-emotional experience) by JASP and R Studio. We conducted Structural Equation Model (SEM) and paired t-test. Personalization factors are about recommendation systems in Spotify. The results of survey represent that companies can shape the Customer Decision Journey (CDJ) ahead especially through enhance cognitive experience. It empirically proves Elaborated Likelihood Model (ELM). The conclusion can be drawn that 'pulling' customer experience can be a new marketing strategies in the digital era.

Extension of theoretical approaches for the shear strength of reinforced concrete beams with corroded stirrups

  • Pier Paolo Rossi;Nino Spinella
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.33-52
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    • 2023
  • This paper proposes and validates the extension of two models, previously formulated for the evaluation of the shear strength of reinforced concrete members with un-corroded reinforcements, to the case of beams with corroded stirrups. These extended models are based on the plasticity theory (this model has been proposed in the past by one of the authors) and on the simplified modified compression field theory. The response of these models is compared with that of the compression chord capacity model, which has recently been embedded with modifications that simulate the effects of steel corrosion. These latter modifications are first discussed and then introduced into the other two models. An existing database of slender and non-slender beams tested in laboratory by other researchers is revised and improved. Finally, all the considered models are applied to the selected specimens and a comparison is drawn between the shear strength resulting from the considered models and the shear strength resulting from the laboratory tests. The effects of corrosion on some important parameters of the ultimate shear response of the reinforced concrete beams are also discussed.

Organizational Commitment of Hospital Employees -Testing a Causal Model in Korean Hospitals- (병원근무자의 직장애착에 관한 연구 -한 인과모형의 검증을 중심으로-)

  • 서영준
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.173-201
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    • 1995
  • A causal model of organizational commitment on the basis of Western literature was tested with a sample of 1,164 employees from two university hospitals in Korea. The model contains three groups of determinants : environmental variables(job opportunity, spouse support, and parent support), psychological variables(met expectations, work involvement, positive affectivity, and negative affectivity), and structural variables(job autonomy, work unit control, routinization, supervisor support, coworker support, role ambiguity, role conflict, workload, resource inadequacy, distributive justice, promotional chances, job security, job hazarda, and pay). The data were colleted with questionnaires and analyzed with the LISREL maximum likelihood method. It is found that (1) the following variables, listed in order of size, have significant total effects on organizational commitment : job satisfaction, met expectations, supervisor support, job security, routinization, job opportunity, negative affectivity, work involvement, distributive justice, and promotional opportunity, (2) the model explains fifty-nine percent of the variance in organizational commitment, and (3) the link with expectancy theory is justified by the results for met expectations. Two conclusions can be drawn from these findings. First, the model of organizational commitment appears to be generalizable to Korean hospitals. Second, the model of organizational commitment should include such theoretical variables as environmental, psychological, and structural factors.

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A Theoretical Approach of Social Ecological Model for School Health Promotion Program (학교 건강증진 사업을 위한 사회생태학적 모형의 이론적 접근)

  • Jung, Sang-Hyuk;Yoon, Hee-Sang
    • The Journal of Korean Society for School & Community Health Education
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    • v.7
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    • pp.87-99
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    • 2006
  • Objectives: This study is to draw the design of the program which is improve school health promotion participation by applying the Social Ecological Model based on the literature review on the health promotion. Methods: Literature review was carried out based on 5 factors of social ecological model using computer search engines of Google, ProQuest, and Riss4U. Results; Social Ecological Model is consist of individual, interpersonal, institutional/organizational, community, and policy. Individual sphere is drawn from Health Belief Model, interpersonal sphere is Social Support Theory, institutional/ organizational sphere is institutional resources theory, community sphere is community model, and policy sphere is Social Marketing Theory. The literature review show that the important variables affecting health promotion exist in each sphere. Individual sphere has social economic status, age, sex, sensitivity and specificity of illness, self-efficacy. Interpersonal sphere has support and use of family, friend and neighbor. Institutional/Organizational sphere has environment service reliability and utility. Conclusions: Community sphere has distance, neighborhood safety, interrelationship among institutions. Policy sphere has cost, legislation advertisement, lobby and concern and leadership of Institution.

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Analysis of Infiltration Area using Prediction Model of Infiltration Risk based on Geospatial Information (지형공간정보 기반의 침투위험도 예측 모델을 이용한 최적침투지역 분석)

  • Shin, Nae-Ho;Oh, Myoung-Ho;Choe, Ho-Rim;Chung, Dong-Yoon;Lee, Yong-Woong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.199-205
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    • 2009
  • A simple and effective analysis method is presented for predicting the best infiltration area. Based on geospatial information, numerical estimation barometer for degree of infiltration risk has been derived. The dominant geospatial features influencing infiltration risk have been found to be area altitude, degree of surface gradient, relative direction of surface gradient to the surveillance line, degree of surface gradient repetition, regional forest information. Each feature has been numerically expressed corresponding to the degree of infiltration risk of that area. Four different detection probability maps of infiltration risk for the surveillance area are drawn on the actual map with respect to the numerically expressed five dominant factors of infiltration risks. By combining the four detection probability maps, the complete picture of thr best infiltration area has been drawn. By using the map and the analytic method the effectiveness of surveillance operation can be improved.

Prediction of ECC tensile stress-strain curves based on modified fiber bridging relations considering fiber distribution characteristics

  • Lee, Bang Yeon;Kim, Jin-Keun;Kim, Yun Yong
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.455-468
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    • 2010
  • This paper presents a prediction and simulation method of tensile stress-strain curves of Engineered Cementitious Composites (ECC). For this purpose, the bridging stress and crack opening relations were obtained by the fiber bridging constitutive law which is quantitatively able to consider the fiber distribution characteristics. And then, a multi-linear model is employed for a simplification of the bridging stress and crack opening relation. In addition, to account the variability of material properties, randomly distributed properties drawn from a normal distribution with 95% confidence are assigned to each element which is determined on the basis of crack spacing. To consider the variation of crack spacing, randomly distributed crack spacing is drawn from the probability density function of fiber inclined angle calculated based on sectional image analysis. An equation for calculation of the crack spacing that takes into quantitative consideration the dimensions and fiber distribution was also derived. Subsequently, a series of simulations of ECC tensile stress-strain curves was performed. The simulation results exhibit obvious strain hardening behavior associated with multiple cracking, which correspond well with test results.

A Development of the Construction Manual for the Prefabricated Temporary Housing in Subway Stations (지하철역의 조립식 임시주거 시공 매뉴얼 개발 연구)

  • Kim, Eun Young;Jang, Soon Gak;Hwang, Eun Kyoung
    • Journal of the Korean housing association
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2015
  • Following natural disasters, there is a need to develop temporary housing through the rapid installation of mass-produced prefabricated housing. This study has developed a model construction manual for prefabricated temporary housing installable in underground spaces. First, the temporary housing prototype was drawn based on opinion poll results from earlier studies. $4.32m^2$ was calculated as the basic unit of the temporary housing living space for one person. Units included panel type, box type and mixed-type, for a variety of field conditions and scales. In order to enable space expansion and movement desirable to the user, the prototype was combination of panel and box types. The drawn prototype was utilized as the basic design template for producing prototypes and for the manual. Second, the possibility of utilizing subway stations as temporary housing was verified through the production of the prototype, and the construction process was summarized in the manual. The manual was developed in the form of a checklist to provide a guideline for users to build with prefab materials.

A Study on the Credential System of Librarian in Korea (사서자격제도 개선안 연구)

  • Jeong, Dong-Youl
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.5-29
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest alternative credential system of librarian in Korea. For this purpose, the study analyzes various aspects of credential system in order to find out characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses. The data used in this study are drawn from current situations and problems analysis, critical literature review case study of six countries, and questionnaire survey analysis. Four different kinds of model are suggested. Those are 'Internal Competency Model', 'Minimum Credits Model', ‘Licence Examination Model', 'Graduate School Model'. This study also suggests further research to develop more adequate credential system of librarian in Korea.

Statistical Analysis and Prediction for Behaviors of Tracked Vehicle Traveling on Soft Soil Using Response Surface Methodology (반응표면법에 의한 연약지반 차량 거동의 통계적 분석 및 예측)

  • Lee Tae-Hee;Jung Jae-Jun;Hong Sup;Km Hyung-Woo;Choi Jong-Su
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.20 no.3 s.70
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    • pp.54-60
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    • 2006
  • For optimal design of a deep-sea ocean mining collector system, based on self-propelled mining vehicle, it is imperative to develop and validate the dynamic model of a tracked vehicle traveling on soft deep seabed. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the fidelity of the dynamic simulation model by means of response surface methodology. Various statistical techniques related to response surface methodology, such as outlier analysis, detection of interaction effect, analysis of variance, inference of the significance of design variables, and global sensitivity analysis, are examined. To obtain a plausible response surface model, maximum entropy sampling is adopted. From statistical analysis and prediction for dynamic responses of the tracked vehicle, conclusions will be drawn about the accuracy of the dynamic model and the performance of the response surface model.