• Title/Summary/Keyword: Distribution reliability

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Development of the 'Three-stage' Bayesian procedure and a reliability data processing code (3단계 베이지안 처리절차 및 신뢰도 자료 처리 코드 개발)

  • 임태진
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 1994
  • A reliability data processing MPRDP (Multi-Purpose Reliability Data Processor) has been developed in FORTRAN language since Jan. 1992 at KAERI (Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute). The purpose of the research is to construct a reliability database(plant-specific as well as generic) by processing various kinds of reliability data in most objective and systematic fashion. To account for generic estimates in various compendia as well as generic plants' operating experience, we developed a 'three-stage' Bayesian procedure[1] by logically combining the 'two-stage' procedure[2] and the idea for processing generic estimates[3]. The first stage manipulates generic plant data to determine a set of estimates for generic parameters,e.g. the mean and the error factor, which accordingly defines a generic failure rate distribution. Then the second stage combines these estimates with the other ones proposed by various generic compendia (we call these generic book type data). This stage adopts another Bayesian procedure to determine the final generic failure rate distribution which is to be used as a priori distribution in the third stage. Then the third stage updates the generic distribution by plant-specific data resulting in a posterior failure rate distribution. Both running failure and demand failure data can be handled in this code. In accordance with the growing needs for a consistent and well-structured reliability database, we constructed a generic reliability database by the MPRDP code[4]. About 30 generic data sources were reviewed and available data were collected and screened from them. We processed reliability data for about 100 safety related components frequently modeled in PSA. The underlying distribution for the failure rate was assumed to be lognormal or gamma, according to the PSA convention. The dependencies among the generic sources were not considered at this time. This problem will be approached in further study.

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A Comparative Study on Reliability Attributes for Software Reliability Model Dependent on Lindley and Erlang Life Distribution (랜들리 및 어랑 수명분포에 의존한 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 대한 신뢰도 속성 비교 연구)

  • Yang, Tae-Jin
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.469-475
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    • 2017
  • Software reliability is one of the most basic and essential problems in software development. In order to detect the software failure phenomenon, the intensity function, which is the instantaneous failure rate in the non-homogeneous Poisson process, can have the property that it is constant, non-increasing or non-decreasing independently at the failure time. In this study, was compared the reliability performance of the software reliability model using the Landely lifetime distribution with the intensity function decreasing pattern and Erlang lifetime distribution from increasing to decreasing pattern in the software product testing process. In order to identify the software failure phenomenon, the parametric estimation was applied to the maximum likelihood estimation method. Therefore, in this paper, was compared and evaluated software reliability using software failure interval time data. As a result, the reliability of the Landely model is higher than that of the Erlang distribution model. But, in the Erlang distribution model, the higher the shape parameter, the higher the reliability. Through this study, the software design department will be able to help the software design by applying various life distribution and shape parameters, and providing software reliability attributes data and basic knowledge to software reliability model using software failure analysis.

A Comparative Study of Software finite Fault NHPP Model Considering Inverse Rayleigh and Rayleigh Distribution Property (역-레일리와 레일리 분포 특성을 이용한 유한고장 NHPP모형에 근거한 소프트웨어 신뢰성장 모형에 관한 비교연구)

  • Shin, Hyun Cheul;Kim, Hee Cheul
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2014
  • The inverse Rayleigh model distribution and Rayleigh distribution model were widely used in the field of reliability station. In this paper applied using the finite failure NHPP models in order to growth model. In other words, a large change in the course of the software is modified, and the occurrence of defects is almost inevitable reality. Finite failure NHPP software reliability models can have, in the literature, exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, proposes the inverse Rayleigh and Rayleigh software reliability growth model, which made out efficiency application for software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination($R^2$), for the sake of efficient model, were employed. In order to insurance for the reliability of data, Laplace trend test was employed. In many aspects, Rayleigh distribution model is more efficient than the reverse-Rayleigh distribution model was proved. From this paper, software developers have to consider the growth model by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can helped.

Development of Probability Distribution Estimation Program for Fatigue Crack Growth Lives (피로균열전파수명의 확률분포추정 프로그램 개발)

  • 김선진;안석환;윤성환
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.1058-1064
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, the development of probability distribution estimation program for fatigue crack growth lives was summarize. The probability distribution estimation program of life was developed to increase the reliability of life estimation. In this study, it is considered that the cause of scatter in fatigue crack growth data is due to material inhomogeneity. The material resistance to fatigue crack growth is modelled as a spatial stochastic process, which varies randomly along the crack path. We developed the GUI program to estimate the probability distribution and reliability using the non-Gaussian stochastic process method. This program can be used for the reliability assessment.

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The Comparison of Reliability for Change Single Loop Configuration in Radial Power Distribution System (수지상 배전계통을 단일루프로 구조 변경시 신뢰도 비교)

  • Lee, Hee-Tae;Kim, Jae-Chul;Kim, Ju-Yong
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.58 no.8
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    • pp.1472-1478
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    • 2009
  • The domestic power distribution system is operating in an open loop mode; however, it already has a loop structure. Power distribution systems must be changed for bi-directions power supply for smart networks due to a changing of paradigm in electric power industry. The simplest bi-directions distribution networks can make it closing of normally open switch. However, bi-directions power supply is very difficulty to be operated and there are many parts which it must study. This paper presented various models that are able to change a radial system for loop structures. Further, we compared the reliability index for each model by evaluating the amount of improvement reliability required in radial power distribution system. In addition, we calculated CIC(Customer Interruption Cost) for each model by comparing and analyzing.

A Study on the Reliability Evaluation in Regional Underground Distribution System (지역별 지중 배전계통 공급방식의 공급신뢰도 평가 기법)

  • Choi, Sang-Bong;Jeong, Seong-Hwan;Kim, Dae-Kyeong
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2001.05a
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    • pp.155-158
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    • 2001
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate properly reliability of underground distribution system taking into account domestic circumstance. Interruption time and number of interruption customer by distribution system based on actual condition in domestic utility are considered as important index to estimate reliability of underground distribution system. This paper presents evaluation results regarding the reliability of an underground distribution system using a model system as new urban area, evaluation results which is established whether automatic system is introduced or not are shown in detail.

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Analysis of Field Reliability Data with Supplementary Information on Degradation Data and Covariates (열화자료와 설명변수 정보를 고려한 사용현장 신뢰성 자료의 분석)

  • 서순근;하천수
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.63-83
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    • 2002
  • Degradation data can provide more reliability information than traditional failure-time data, especially products with few or no failures. This paper is concerned with a method of estimating lifetime distribution from field data with supplementary information on degradation data and covariates. When a distribution of degradation rate obtained by follow-up study for a portion of products that survive after-warranty follows a reciprocal-Weibull or lognormal distribution. A time-to-failure distribution of the product follows Weibull or lognormal distribution, respectively. A method of estimating lifetime parameters for this kind of data and their asymptotic properties are studied. Effects of after-warranty report probability, follow-up rate, and proportion of degradation data on pseudo maximum likelihood estimators of these parameters are investigated.

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Power Distribution System Equipment Failure Rate Analysis for Reliability Estimation (신뢰도 평가를 위한 배전계통 설비기기 고장률 분석)

  • Lee, Hee-Tae;Kim, Jae-Chul;Moon, Jong-Fil;Park, Chang-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of IIIuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers Conference
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    • 2004.05a
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    • pp.370-373
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    • 2004
  • The inside and outside of the country utilities considered that they focused energy and economic aspect for short-term in new environment change of restructure. but it need service reliability preservation and improvement countermeasure, that is no to use existent estimation method for reliability preservation. therefore, analyze the equipment failure rate for suitable reliability preservation through equipment failure rate analysis of power distribution r system and evaluated equipment that is composing power distribution system by the failure rate. This paper estimated failure causes and the TVFR(Time Varying Failure Rate) for main equipment that is composing power distribution system using Weibull distribution.

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Degradation reliability modeling of plain concrete for pavement under flexural fatigue loading

  • Jia, Yanshun;Liu, Guoqiang;Yang, Yunmeng;Gao, Ying;Yang, Tao;Tang, Fanlong
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.469-478
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to establish a new methodological framework for the evaluation of the evolution of the reliability of plain concrete for pavement vs number of cycles under flexural fatigue loading. According to the framework, a new method calculating the reliability was proposed through probability simulation in order to describe a random accumulation of fatigue damage, which combines reliability theory, one-to-one probability density functions transformation technique, cumulative fatigue damage theory and Weibull distribution theory. Then the statistical analysis of flexural fatigue performance of cement concrete tested was carried out utilizing Weibull distribution. Ultimately, the reliability for the tested cement concrete was obtained by the proposed method. Results indicate that the stochastic evolution behavior of concrete materials under fatigue loading can be captured by the established framework. The flexural fatigue life data of concrete at different stress levels is well described utilizing the two-parameter Weibull distribution. The evolution of reliability for concrete materials tested in this study develops by three stages and may corresponds to develop stages of cracking. The proposed method may also be available for the analysis of degradation behaviors under non-fatigue conditions.

Development of the Computational Model to Evaluate Integrated Reliability in Water Distribution Network (상수관망의 통합신뢰도 산정을 위한 해석모형의 개발)

  • Park, Jae-Hong;Han, Kun-Yeon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.105-115
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    • 2003
  • The computation model which evaluates combined hydraulic and mechanical reliability, is developed to analyze the integrated reliability in water distribution system. The hydraulic reliability is calculated by considering uncertain variables like water demand, hydraulic pressure, pipe roughness as random variables according to proper distribution type. The mechanical reliability is evaluated by analyzing the effect of pipe network with sequential failure of network components. The result of this study model applied to the real pipe network shows that this model can be used to simulate the uncertain factors effectively in real pipe network. Therefore, The pipe-line engineers can design and manage the network system with more quantitative reliability, through applying this model to reliable pipe network design and diagnosis of existing systems.