• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.32-40
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• 2017

The current status of Performance-Based Design (PBD) implemented in 4 wide areas (Seoul, Gyeonggi, Incheon and Busan) over the past 5 years was reviewed with regard to the number of PBD implementation and target buildings. Then, detailed status related to fire scenarios, input information for fire simulation, and grid size were analyzed with the pre-review for the PBD. As a result, the domestic PBD was mainly applied to the mixed occupancy. In the fire simulations performed on the identical fire scenario and fire space, the maximum heat release rate (HRR) varied significantly depending on the PBD designer. Various combustibles were also considered for the identical fire source, and their combustion properties also showed considerable uncertainty. In addition, the applicability of accurate input information for predictive models of heat and smoke detectors was examined. Finally, the average grid size for the fire simulation using Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) was analyzed, and the improvement of PBD to minimize designer dependency was proposed.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.367-379
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• 2019

Purpose: This study aims to propose a framework for climate change risk management by analyzing characteristics of climate-induced disasters. Method: The recent global and domestic trends of loss and damage under natural disaster events and the characteristics of climate-induced disasters were analyzed to design a framework for climate change risk management. Results: In consideration of the uncertainty of climate risk and various spatio-temporal scales of climate disasters, a new framework is suggested for comprehensive climate risk management that includes risk assessment, goal setting, planning, monitoring and evaluation, learning and adjustment. The framework aims at an iterative process that is activated by stakeholder engagement. Conclusion: Pilot studies need to be conducted to revise and polish the framework in the future, and institutional arrangements should be prepared for the effective implementation of the comprehensive climate risk management.

• Journal of Digital Contents Society
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.1213-1216
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• 2017

Recently due to the increasing uncertainty of the disaster environment caused by climate change the effects of disasters have become larger due to the confluence and solidification diversification into disaster type and secondary damage. In this paper, we apply ICBMS through intelligent information technology and big data analysis to all processes of disaster safety management to minimize human, social, economic and environment damage from accidents or disasters, and prevention by control technology preparation by education and training expansion to remember by body, response by advanced technology of disaster response unmanned technology restoration by creation of local community environment ecosystem, investigation and analysis by intelligent information technology learn about disaster safety management 4.0. In addition, technical limitation and problems in the $4^{th}$ industrial revolution and the application of big data were analyzed and suggested alternatives and strategies to overcome.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.241-269
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• 2011

Solar flare and storm may give an adverse effect upon electromagnetic environment around the Earth, so that various kinds of satellite cease to normally function. This kind of space storm disaster is characterized by the uncertainty about when and what size. Recently the UN has been paying attention to this plausible disaster. Particularly the COPUOS has taken the view that this disaster would threaten the sustainable space environment. The precautionary principle, rooted and excercised in the environment protection filed, has been adopted in the case of disaster with uncertainty. The reports and opinions given by the expert and representatives of the member States have stated that the precautionary principle should be adopted for the purpose of dealing with this disaster. On the other hand, it is advanced that the principle has been already included in the space law principle enshrined in the 1967 Space Treaty. The Treaty has adopted the freedom of navigation and use of the outer space for the interest of all States as the basic principles. Sustainable environment is necessary for implementing the principle. Therefore, the rules for the protection of sustainable space environment should be based upon the space law principle.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.33-45
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• 2019

Compound disaster is the type that increases the impact affected by two or more hazard events, and attention to compound disaster and multi-hazards risk is growing due to potential damages which are difficult to predict. The objective of this study is to analyze the possible impacts of post-fire landslide scenario quantitatively by using TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis), a physics-based landslide model. In the case of wildfire, soil organic material and density are altered, and saturated hydraulic conductivity decrease because of soil exposed to high temperature. We have included the change of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity into the TRIGRS model through literature review. For a case study, we selected the area of $8km^2$ in Pyeongchang County. The landslide modeling process was calibrated before simulate the post-wildfire impact based on landslide inventory data to reduce uncertainty. As a result, the mean of the total factor of safety values in the case of landslide was 2.641 when rainfall duration is 1 hour with rainfall intensity of 100mm per day, while the mean value for the case of post-wildfire landslide was lower to 2.579, showing potential landslide occurrence areas appear more quickly in the compound disaster scenario. This study can be used to prevent potential losses caused by the compound disaster such as post-wildfire debris flow or landslides.

• Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
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• v.6
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• pp.39-49
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• 1995

The surface hydrology of large land areas is susceptible to several preferred stable states with transitions between stable states induced by stochastic fluctuation. This comes about due to the close couping of land surface and atmospheric interaction. An interesting and important issue is the duration of residence in each mode. Mean transition times between the stable modes are analyzed for different model parameters or climatic types. In an example situation of this differential equation exhibits a bimodal probability distribution of soil moisture states. Uncertainty analysis regarding the model parameters is performed using a Monte-Carlo simulation method. The method developed in this research may reveal some important characteristics of soil moisture or precipitation over a large area, in particular, those relating to abrupt change in soil moisture or preciptation having extremely variable duration.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.209-221
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• 2012

The flutter reliability analysis of long span bridges requires use of a software tool that predicts the uncertainty in a flutter response due to uncertainties in the model formulation and input parameters. Existing flutter analysis numerical codes are not capable of dealing with stochastic uncertainty in the analysis of long span bridges. The goal of the present work is to develop a software tool (FREASB) to enable designers to efficiently and accurately conduct flutter reliability analysis of long span bridges. The FREASB interfaces an open-source Matlab toolbox for structural reliability analysis (FERUM) with a typical deterministic flutter analysis code. The paper presents a brief introduction to the generalized first-order reliability method implemented in FREASB and key steps involved in coupling it with a typical deterministic flutter analysis code. A numerical example concerning flutter reliability analysis of a long span suspension bridge with a main span of 1385 m is presented to demonstrate the application and effectiveness of the methodology and the software.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.8
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• pp.2941-2959
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• 2022

The fire brigade non-suppression probability model is a major factor that should be considered in evaluating fire-induced risk through fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), and also uncertainty is a critical consideration in support of risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) fire protection decision-making. This study developed an optimal integrated probabilistic fire brigade non-suppression model considering uncertainty of parameters based on the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach on electrical fire which is one of the most risk significant contributors. The result shows that the log-normal probability model with a location parameter (µ) of 2.063 and a scale parameter (σ) of 1.879 is best fitting to the actual fire experience data. It gives optimal model adequacy performance with Bayesian information criterion (BIC) of -1601.766, residual sum of squares (RSS) of 2.51E-04, and mean squared error (MSE) of 2.08E-06. This optimal log-normal model shows the better performance of the model adequacy than the exponential probability model suggested in the current fire PRA methodology, with a decrease of 17.3% in BIC, 85.3% in RSS, and 85.3% in MSE. The outcomes of this study are expected to contribute to the improvement and securement of fire PRA realism in the support of decision-making for RIPB fire protection programs.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.475-487
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• 2024

Many uncertainties affect the stability assessment of rock structures. Some of these factors significantly influence technology decisions. Some of these factors belong to the geological domain, and spatial uncertainty measurements are useful for structural stability analysis. This paper presents an integrated approach to study the stability of rock structures, including spatial factors. This study models two main components: discrete structures (fault zones) and well known geotechnical parameters (rock quality indicators). The geostatistical modeling criterion are used to quantify geographic uncertainty by producing simulated maps and RQD values for multiple equally likely error regions. Slope stability theorem would be demonstrated by modeling local failure zones and RQDs. The approach proided is validated and finally, the slope stability analysis method and fuzzy Laypunov criterion are applied to mining projects with limited measurement data. The goals of this paper are towards access to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services, promotion of inclusive and sustainable urbanization and participation, implementation of sustainable and disaster-resilient buildings, sustainable human settlement planning and manage. Simulation results of linear and nonlinear structures show that the proposed method is able to identify structural parameters and their changes due to damage and unknown excitations. Therefore, the goal is believed to achieved in the near future by the ongoing development of AI and fuzzy theory.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.101-110
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• 2017

The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) presented the disaster prevention performance target rainfall (DPPTR) for disaster prevention. The estimation criteria for DPPTR is a 10 year cycle. On the other hand, the target rainfall recalculated every 10 years is difficult to reflect the current change in rainfall on climate change. In this study, the probability of precipitation using the recent rainfall data was prepared and the weights according to socio-economic criteria reflecting the urban characteristics and adjusted probability rainfall criteria were applied to the results. The difference between the existing target rainfall and recalculated result was compared. The input data for the estimated probability rainfall was selected from 6 points located in the rainfall observing station of Chungcheongnam-do, Daejeon region. As a result of the estimation, in the case of upward probability precipitation weight, some similar areas were observed. On the other hand, there were a few cases of upward or downward changes within 10 mm. Considering the rainfall variability and uncertainty due to climate change, the existing target rainfall does not present the condition properly. Therefore, hydrological designers need to calculate the target rainfall, reflecting the present condition.