• Title/Summary/Keyword: Direct Demand Model

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Leakage Detection of Water Distribution System using Adaptive Kalman Filter (적응 칼만필터를 이용한 상수관망의 누수감시 기법)

  • Kim, Seong-Won;Choi, Doo Yong;Bae, Cheol-Ho;Kim, Juhwan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.10
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    • pp.969-976
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    • 2013
  • Leakage in water distribution system causes social and economic losses by direct water loss into the ground, and additional energy demand for water supply. This research suggests a leak detection model of using adaptive Kalman filtering on real-time data of pipe flow. The proposed model takes into account hourly and daily variations of water demand. In addition, the model's prediction accuracy is improved by automatically calibrating the covariance of noise through innovation sequence. The adaptive Kalman filtering shows more accurate result than the existing Kalman method for virtual sine flow data. Then, the model is applied to data from two real district metered area in JE city. It is expected that the proposed model can be an effective tool for operating water supply system through detecting burst leakage and abnormal water usage.

China Shocks to Korea's ICT Exports

  • Ko, Dong-Whan
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.146-163
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - This paper examines China's impact on Korea's ICT exports considering the direct competition channel, the production shift channel, and the indirect demand channel at once. This paper also takes China's economic rebalancing into account and discusses whether it makes any differences in the effect of the three channels. Design/methodology - To quantify the effect of the three channels, I constructed a linear panel regression model and estimated it with various estimation methods including the system GMM. China's exports toward the same destination as Korea's exports, Korea's exports toward China, and the third countries' exports toward China respectively reflect the three channels. China's GVC indicators are included as well to evaluate the effect of further China's economic rebalancing. Since the present paper has a greater interest in the effect of China rather than the determinant of bilateral trade, a (fixed effect) panel model becomes more appropriate than the gravity model because timeinvariant variables in the gravity model, such as the distance and the language, are eliminated during the estimation process. Findings - The estimation results indicate that Chinese ICT exports are complementary to Korea's ICT exports in general. However, when markets are considered in subgroups, China's ICT exports could have a negative effect in the long run, especially for SITC75 and SITC76 markets, implying a possible competitive threat of China. The production shift effect turns significant during China's economic rebalancing in the markets for the advanced economies and the SITC76 product. China's indirect demand channel is also in effect significantly for the advanced economy and SITC75 commodities during China's economic rebalancing periods. In addition, this paper shows that China's transition toward upstream in the global value chain could have a positive impact on Korea's ICT exports, especially at the Asian market. Originality/value - The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, it focuses on the ICT industry for which Korea increasingly depends on China and China becomes a global hub of the GVC. Second, this paper quantitatively studies three channels in a model in contrast to the literature which mostly examines those channels separately and pays less attention to the GVC aspect. Third, by utilizing relatively recent data from the period of 2001-2017, this paper discusses whether China's economic rebalancing affects the three channels.

Analysis of Diversion Demands for the Rapid Railway (급행철도 도입에 따른 전환수요 분석)

  • Jeong, Byeong-Du;Kim, Hyeon;Hwang, Yeong-Gi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.131-140
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    • 2009
  • A diversity of railway network function enhancement projects such as the double tracking, electrification, and direct operation have been actively executed to improve the railway service. When the new rapid railway is provided, how many people will use it instead of other transports? How will the railway choice behavior be changed? Accordingly, in this paper, the applicability of diverted travel demand forecast method by Stated Preference(SP) and Transfer Price(TP) data was reviewed for Daegu metropolitan railway service. As the result of implementing the Revealed Preference(RP) and RP+SP model, the total travel time and travel cost parameters are of the right sign and are highly significant. In particular, when TP data is used as the complementary investigation of SP, the boundary value of diverted travel demand can be easily identified by railway fare and travel time service level. Therefore, it is considered that this will practically apply even in other regions as well as Daegu metropolitan railway.

Deformation Measurement of Roadbed in Full-scale Field Test to Determine an Optimum Trackbed of High-Speed Railway (고속철도 노반의 최적단면 결정을 위한 실대형 모형시험에서의 노반 변형 계측)

  • Jung, Young-Hoon;Kim, Hak-Sung;Byeon, Bo-Hyeon;Lee, Jin-Wook
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2011.10a
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    • pp.2821-2829
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    • 2011
  • Since the KTX was in operation in 2004, a number of researches on increasing the train speed have been conducted. Currently, the Honam High-speed train system is designed for the operation velocity of 350km/h. The societal demand expects higher operation speed, whereas the existing construction method and design specification are questioned in the KTX operation in the velocity over 350 km/h. In this study, a full-scale model test was conducted to obtain the preliminary data that is necessary to understand deformation characteristics of the reinforced road bed and the subgrade layers. In the full-scale model test, direct arrival seismic tests, crosshole seimic test, in-situ bender element test and sensing bar test were employed to measure the stiffness and deformation of the trackbed. The systematic analysis on the different set of measurements enhances the understanding of the behavior of the trackbed.

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Analysis of Loss Expectancy on Personal Information leakage using Quantitative Invest Decision Model (투자결정 모델을 활용한 개인정보유출의 기대손실 분석)

  • Kim, Jeong Yeon
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.93-106
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    • 2015
  • Providing trading partners with personal information to establish an e-commerce financial transaction is inevitable. Most e-commerce companies keep personal information and transaction data for user's convenience and develop additional services as their applications. However, keeping personal information increases the likelihood of identity theft causing direct or indirect damage while it may simplify repetitive financial transactions. This study introduces risk management methods based on quantitative and qualitative analysis including demand-supply curve model and Gordon & Loeb model to analyze the risks for security management. The empirical analysis with survey results from KISA (Korea Information Security Agency) shows that the root cause of different statistics of personal information leakage incidents according to core business of internet companies is the difference in their Loss Expectancy caused by them. Also we suggest disciplinary compensation and higher standard for personal information protection as a solution to prevent the variation of investment on it between individual companies.

Analysis of Non-Point Source Pollution Reduction using Water Sensitive Urban Design in Gimhae, South Korea (김해시 물 순환 개선 도시계획에 의한 비점오염물질 저감효과 분석)

  • Jung, Kang-Young;Kim, Shin;Kwon, Hun-Gak;Yang, Duk Seok;Kim, Kyosik;Jang, Kwang-Jin;Shin, Dong-Seok;Ahn, Jung-Min
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.25 no.11
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    • pp.1499-1509
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    • 2016
  • This study was performed to analyze the effects of a water circulation green area plan on non-point source pollution in Gimhae South Korea. A quantitative analysis of Arc-GIS data was conducted by applying a watershed model based on Fortran to investigate the changes to direct runoff and pollution load. Results showed that prior to the implementation of the water circulation green area plan in Gimhae, direct runoff was $444.05m^3/year$, total biological oxygen demand (BOD) pollution load was 21,696 kg/year, and total phosphorus (TP) pollution load was 1,743 kg/year. Implementation of the development plan was found to reduce direct runoff by 2.27%, BOD pollution load by 1.16% and TP pollution load by 0.19% annually. The reduction in direct runoff and non-point source pollution were attributed to improvements in the design of impermeable layers within the city.

Estimating O-D Trips Between Sub-divided Smaller Zones Within a Traffic Analysis Zone (대존 세분화에 따른 내부 소존 간의 O-D 통행량 추정 방법)

  • KIM, Jung In;KIM, Ikki
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.575-583
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    • 2015
  • The Korea Transport Institute (KOTI) builds the origin and destination(O-D) trip data with relatively smaller zone size such as Eup, Myeon, Dong administration unit districts in metropolitan area. Otherwise, O-D trip data was built by bigger size of traffic analysis zone(TAZ) such as Si, Gun, Gu administration unit districts for rural area. In some cases, it is needed to divide a zone into several sub-zones for rural area in order to analyze travel distribution pattern in detail for a certain highway and rail project. The study suggested a method to estimate O-D trips for sub-zones in the larger-size zones in rural area. Two different distribution models, direct demand model and gravity model, were calibrated for sub-zone's intra-zonal O-D trip pattern with metropolitan area O-D data which has smaller zone-size (sub-zone) data categorized by low, middle and high population density. The calibration results were compared between the two models. The gravity model with impedance function of power functional form was selected with better explanation for all groups in the metropolitan area. The adjusted $R^2$ was 0.7426, 0.6456 and 0.7194 for low, middle and high population density group, respectively. The suggested O-D trip estimating method is expected to produce enhanced trip patterns with sub-divided small zones.

Direct strength measurement of Timoshenko-beam model: Vibration analysis of double walled carbon nanotubes

  • Ghandourah, Emad;Hussain, Muzamal;Thobiani, Faisal Al;Hefni, Mohammed;Alghamdi, Sami
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.84 no.1
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    • pp.77-83
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    • 2022
  • In the last ten years, many researchers have studied the vibrations of carbon nanotubes using different beam theories. The nano- and micro-scale systems have wavy shape and there is a demand for a powerful tool to mathematically model waviness of those systems. In accordance with the above mentioned lack for the modeling of the waviness of the curved tiny structure, a novel approach is employed by implementing the Timoshenko-beam model. Owing to the small size of the micro beam, these structures are very appropriate for designing small instruments. The vibrations of double walled carbon nanotubes (DWCNTs) are developed using the Timoshenko-beam model in conjunction with the wave propagation approach under support conditions to calculate the fundamental frequencies of DWCNTs. The frequency influence is observed with different parameters. Vibrations of the double walled carbon nanotubes are investigated in order to find their vibrational modes with frequencies. The aspect ratios and half axial wave mode with small length are investigated. It is calculated that these frequencies and ratios are dependent upon the length scale and aspect ratio.

An Analysis on Consumers' Awareness of a Rural Specialties Exhibition Shop and the Design Development : Focusing on Rural Tourism Village (농촌 농특산품 전시판매시설 디자인 소비자 의식 분석 및 디자인 개발 - 농촌관광마을을 중심으로 -)

  • Jin, Hye-Ryeon;Seo, Ji-Ye;Jo, Lok-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.253-262
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    • 2014
  • This, an association research for design-improvement and model-development of exhibition shops at rural tourism communities, is to secure objective data by analyzing customers' awareness-tendency of and demand for agricultural-specialty exhibition shops. Survey-questions for finding out consumers' awareness-tendency and demand were determined through brainstorming of a professional council, 30 rural communities of which visit-rate by consumers is considerably high were selected for the recruit of 200 consumers. For investigation and analysis, survey and in-depth interview were carried out at the scene with the application of frequency analysis and summarization of their opinions, which revealed that they have a strong will to visit the rural tourism communities for the purchase of agricultural specialties along with the experience of learning-program and on-the-scene direct dealing and that their viewpoint on the direct dealing at the scene was very positive. Also it was confirmed hat their satisfaction with the purchase of agricultural specialties by on-the-scene direct dealing, their pleasure at the purchase, their satisfaction with services and their intention for re-purchase of them were very high while their satisfaction with the exhibition shops was very low. With on-the-scene survey, the consumers' opinions could be listened to in depth. Almost all of them said their satisfaction with the trip to those rural tourism communities was considerably high since they could go to those communities themselves to relieve the stress from their modern life, to experience healing and to see the goods on the scene. Their satisfaction also was attributed to the fact that they have enough trust in purchase along with feeling the warm-heartedness of rural residents. As to their awareness of exhibition shops, they showed a positive response to the on-the-scene direct dealing at rural communities while they, thinking that the space in those exhibition shops was not sufficiently wide, demanded for more systematic counters in more accessible and affordable exhibition shops so that they might be more satisfied with the exhibition shops. Their demand for the necessity of exhibition shops selling agricultural specialties was found to be over 80%, which indicates that the necessity is very high. As to the suitability of function, they have the opinion that the business at those shops had better be focused on sales since they have the understanding of information when they take a trip to the rural communities, while there was another opinion: since agricultural products are seasonal items they should be exhibited and sold at the same time. More than 90% of the respondents had a positive viewpoint on direct dealing of agricultural specialties on the scene, which showed that their response to it was very high. They preferred the permanent shops equipped with roll-around table-booths. In addition, it was revealed that they want systematic exhibition shops in rural communities because they frequent those communities for on-the-scene direct purchase. The preferred type and opinion resulting from estimation of consumers' demands have been reflected for development of practical designs. The structure of variable principles has been designed so that the types of display-case and table-booth might be created. The result of this study is a positive data as a design model which can be utilized at rural communities and will be commercialized for the verification of its validity.

A Study on Mixed RP/SP Models of Demand Forecasting for Rail Rapid Transit (급행철도 수요예측을 위한 RP와 SP 결합모형에 관한 연구)

  • Bae, Choon Bong;Jung, Byung Doo;Hwang, Young Ki;Kim, Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.5D
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    • pp.671-677
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    • 2011
  • A diversity of railway network function enhancement projects such as the double tracking, electrification, and direct operation have been actively executed to improve the railway service. When the new rapid transit is provided, how many people will use it instead of other transports? How will the railway choice behavior be changed? Accordingly, in this paper, the applicability of diverted travel demand forecast methods, by Revealed Preference(RP) and Stated Preference(SP) data was reviewed for Daegu metropolitan rail rapid transit service. As the result of combining RP and SP data, including the sequential and simultaneous approach, the total travel time and travel cost parameters are of the right sign and are highly significant. The simultaneous approach is more efficient in terms of the estimation of coefficients. In particular, methods to improve validity of the Mixed RP/SP models, when RP data is used proportionally, the diverted travel demand can be easily identified by railway fare and travel time service level. Therefore, it is considered that this will practically apply even in other regions as well as Daegu metropolitan railway.