• International Journal of Railway
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.5-9
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• 2015

Reliability based limit state design method is replacing traditional deterministic designs such as allowable stress design and/or ultimate strength design methods in world trends. European design code(Eurocode) has adopted limit state design, and Korea road bridge design standard has also recently been transferred to limit state design method. In this trend, Korea railroad design standard is also preparing for adopting the same design concept. While safety factors are determined empirically in traditional design, load combinations as well as load factors are determined by solving limit state equations. General partial safety factors are evaluated by using AFORM(Advanced First Order Reliability Method) in the reliability based limit state design method. In this study sensitivity analysis is carried out for a dead load factor and a live load factor. Relative precisions of the dead load and the live load factors are discussed prior to the AFORM analysis. Furthermore the sectional forces of design and the material quantities required by two different design methods are compared for a PSC box girder railway bridge.

• Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.99-112
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• 2019

A quantum light source is an essential element for quantum information technology, including quantum communication, quantum sensor, and quantum computer. Quantum light sources including photon number state, entangled state, and squeezed state can be divided into two types according to the generation mechanism, namely single emitter and non-linear based systems. The single emitter platform contains atom/ion trap, solid-state defect/color center, two-dimensional material, and semiconductor quantum dot, which can emit deterministic photons. The non-linear based platform contains spontaneous parametric down-conversion and spontaneous four-wave mixing, which can emit probabilistic photon pairs. For each platform, we give an overview of the recent research trends of the generation, manipulation, and integration of single photon and entangled photon sources. The characteristics of quantum light sources are investigated for each platform. In addition, we briefly introduce quantum sensing, quantum communication, and quantum computing applications based on quantum light sources. We discuss the challenges and prospects of quantum light sources for quantum information technology.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.205-223
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• 2021

In this paper, we study a method to determine the existence of unit roots by using the adaptive lasso. The previously proposed method that applied the adaptive lasso to the original time series has low power when there is an unknown trend. Therefore, we propose a modified version that fits the ADF regression model without deterministic component using the adaptive lasso to the detrended series instead of the original series. Our Monte Carlo simulation experiments show that the modified method improves the power over the original method and works well in large samples.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.152-167
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• 2011

MODIS/Terra level 3 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data from 2001 to 2008 have been analyzed to understand long-term aerosol and cloud optical properties, and their relationships around Korea. Interestingly, cloud fraction(CF) has the similar annual variation to aerosol optical depth (${\tau}_a$) without any temporal significant trend. Horizontal distributions of ${\tau}_a$ showed the substantial horizontal gradient from China to Korea, especially with the strong difference over the Yellow Sea, which could represent the evidence of the anthropogenic influence from China in the perspective of long-term average. Specifically the negative correlations between ${\tau}_a$ and liquid-phase cloud effective radius ($r_e$) were shown on the monthly-average basis, only in summer with significant associations over the Yellow Sea, but not in the other seasons and/or specific regions. Relationship between ${\tau}_a$ and CF for the low-level liquid-phase clouds exhibited the overall positive correlation, being consistent with cloud lifetime effect. Meanwhile static stability showed no deterministic relationships with ${\tau}_a$ as well as CF. The dependence of aerosol-cloud relationship on the meteorological conditions should be examined more in detail with the satellite remote sensing and reanalysis data.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.269-278
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• 1997

Operating rules, the basic principle of reservoir operation, are mostly developed from maximum or minimum, mean inflow series so that those rules cannot be used in practical operating situations to estimate the expected benefits or provide the operating policies for uncertainty conditions. Many operating rules based on the deterministic method that considers all operation variables including inflows as known variables can not reflect to uncertainties of inflow variations. Explicit operating rules can be developed for improving the weakness. In this method, stochastic trend of inflow series, one of the reservoir operation variables, can be directly method, the stochastic technique was applied to develop reservoir operating rule. In this study, stochastic dynamic programming using the concepts was applied to develop optimal operating rule for the Chungju reservoir system. The developed operating rules are regarded as a practical usage because the operating policy is following up the basic concept of Lag-1 Markov except for flood season. This method can provide reservoir operating rule using the previous stage's inflow and the current stage's beginning storage when the current stage's inflow cannot be predicted properly.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2009.03a
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• pp.759-767
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• 2009

Recently, there is a trend to introduce a reliability approach to the design of al large scale improvement of weak ground due to the uncertainty of the influence factors in the consolidation. Since the reliability analysis is not easily adopted to geotechnical engineers because of some difficulties in working up the theories, Duncan(2000) proposed a simplified method for using reliability method to goetechnical problems. In this study, the applicability of Duncan's simplified reliability approach is evaluated by comparing the traditional reliability results with Duncan's. In the sensitivity analysis, the two results were quite similar. However, the probability of failure showed an error range of 20~50% and further Duncan's approach could not make a distinction for the distribution of geotechnical random variables. The simplified reliability method seems to be used properly in preliminary design if it is used supplementary with the deterministic method.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.56 no.5
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• pp.707-726
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• 2015

There is a growing trend of considering uncertainty in optimization process since last few decades. In this regard, Robust Design Optimization (RDO) scheme has gained increasing momentum because of its virtue of improving performance of structure by minimizing the variation of performance and ensuring necessary safety and feasibility of constraint under uncertainty. In the present study, RDO of reinforced concrete folded plate and shell structure has been carried out incorporating uncertainty in the relevant parameters by Monte Carlo Simulation. Folded plate and shell structures are among the new generation popular structures often used in aesthetically appealing constructions. However, RDO study of such important structures is observed to be scarce. The optimization problem is formulated as cost minimization problem subjected to the force and displacements constraints considering dead, live and wind load. Then, the RDO is framed by simultaneously optimizing the expected value and the variation of the performance function using weighted sum approach. The robustness in constraint is ensured by adding suitable penalty term and through a target reliability index. The RDO problem is solved by Sequential Quadratic Programming. Subsequently, the results of the RDO are compared with conventional deterministic design approach. The parametric study implies that robust designs can be achieved by sacrificing only small increment in initial cost, but at the same time, considerable quality and guarantee of the structural behaviour can be ensured by the RDO solutions.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.241-255
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• 2020

Background: The stem exclusion stage is a stage of forest development that is important for understanding the subsequent understory reinitiation stage and maturation stage during which horizontal heterogeneity is formed. Over the past 11 years (2009-2019), we observed a deciduous broad-leaved forest in the Albongbunji Basin in Ulleungdo, South Korea in its stem exclusion stage, where Fagus engleriana (Engler's beech) is the dominant species, thereby analyzing the changes in the structure (density and size distributions), function (biomass and species richness), and demographics. Results: The mean stem density data presented a bell-shaped curve with initially increasing, peaking, and subsequently decreasing trends in stem density over time, and the mean biomass data showed a sigmoidal pattern indicating that the rate of biomass accumulation slowed over time. Changes in the density and biomass of Fagus engleriana showed a similar trend to the changes in density and biomass at the community level, which is indicative of the strong influence of this species on the changing patterns of forest structure and function. Around 2015, a shift between recruitment and mortality rates was observed. Deterministic processes were the predominant cause of tree mortality in our study; however, soil deposition that began in 2017 in some of the quadrats resulted in an increase in the contribution of stochastic processes (15% in 2019) to tree mortality. The development of horizontal heterogeneity was observed in forest gaps. Conclusions: Our observations showed a dramatic shift between the recruitment and mortality rates in the stem exclusion stage, and that disturbance increases the uncertainty in forest development increases. The minor changes in species composition are likely linked to regional species pool and the limited role of the life-history strategy of species such as shade tolerance and habitat affinity. Our midterm records of ecological succession exhibited detailed demographic dynamics and contributed to the improvement of an ecological perspective in the stem exclusion stage.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.477-489
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• 2021

COVID-19 has spread seriously around the world in 2020 and it is still significantly affecting our whole daily life. Currently, the whole world is still undergoing the pandemic and South Korea is no exception to it. During the pandemic, South Korea had several events that prevented or accelerated its spread. To establish the prevention policies for infectious diseases, it is very important to evaluate the intervention effect of such events. The susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is often used to describe the dynamic behavior of the spread of infectious diseases through ordinary differential equations. However, the SIR model is a deterministic model without considering the uncertainty of observed data. To consider the uncertainty in the SIR model, the Bayesian approach can be employed, and this approach allows us to evaluate the intervention effects by time-varying functions of the infection rate in the SIR model. In this study, we describe the time trend of the spread of COVID-19 in South Korea and investigate the intervention effects for the events using the stochastic SIR model based on the Bayesian approach.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.249-264
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• 2011

A multi-Gaussian kriging approach extended to space-time domain is presented for uncertainty modeling as well as time-series mapping of environmental variables. Within a multi-Gaussian framework, normal score transformed environmental variables are first decomposed into deterministic trend and stochastic residual components. After local temporal trend models are constructed, the parameters of the models are estimated and interpolated in space. Space-time correlation structures of stationary residual components are quantified using a product-sum space-time variogram model. The ccdf is modeled at all grid locations using this space-time variogram model and space-time kriging. Finally, e-type estimates and conditional variances are computed from the ccdf models for spatial mapping and uncertainty analysis, respectively. The proposed approach is illustrated through a case of time-series Particulate Matter 10 ($PM_{10}$) concentration mapping in Incheon Metropolitan city using monthly $PM_{10}$ concentrations at 13 stations for 3 years. It is shown that the proposed approach would generate reliable time-series $PM_{10}$ concentration maps with less mean bias and better prediction capability, compared to conventional spatial-only ordinary kriging. It is also demonstrated that the conditional variances and the probability exceeding a certain thresholding value would be useful information sources for interpretation.