• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.236-243
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• 2019

Hydrologic time series has been analyzed and forecasted by using classical linear models. However, there is growing evidence of nonlinear structure in natural phenomena and hydrologic time series associated with their patterns and fluctuations. Therefore, the classical linear techniques for time series analysis and forecasting may not be appropriate for nonlinear processes. Daily streamflow series at St. Johns river near Cocoa, Florida, USA showed an interesting result of a low dimensional, nonlinear dynamical system but daily inflow at Soyang reservoir, South Korea showed stochastic property. Based on the chaotic dynamical characteristic, DVS (deterministic versus stochastic) algorithm is used for short-term forecasting, as well as for exploring the properties of the system. In addition to the use of DVS algorithm, a neural network scheme for the forecasting of the daily streamflow series can be used and the two techniques are compared in this study. As a result, the daily streamflow which has chaotic property showed much more accurate result in short term forecasting than stochastic data.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.65-72
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• 2019

More than 64% of Korea's land is occupied by mountain regions, which have terrain characteristics that make it vulnerable to mountain disasters. The trails of Taebaeksan Mountain National Park-the region considered in this study-are located in the vicinity of steep slopes, and therefore, the region is vulnerable to landslides and debris flow during heavy storms. In this study, a slope stability model, which is a deterministic analysis method, was used to examine the potential occurrence of landslides. According to the soil classification of the detailed soil map, the specific weight of soil, effective cohesion, internal friction angle of soil, effective soil depth, and ground slope were used as the parameters of the model, and slope stability was evaluated based on the DEM of a 1 m grid. The results of the slope stability analysis showed that the more hazardous the area was, the closer the ratio of groundwater/effective soil depth is to 1.0. Further, many of the private houses and commercial facilities in the lower part of the national park were shown to be exposed to danger.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.26 no.2D
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• pp.251-258
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• 2006

This study is to develop an estimation method of freeway design capacity through the analysis of time headway distribution in continuum flow. Traffic flow-speed diagram and time headway distribution plotted from individual vehicle data shows: a) a road capacity is not deterministic but stochastic, b) time headway distribution for each vehicle speed group follows pearson type V distribution. The freeway design capacity estimation model is developed by determining a minimum time headway for capacity with stochastic method. The estimated capacity values for each design speed are lower when design speed ${\leq}80km/h$, and higher when design speed ${\geq}106km/h$ in comparison with HCM(2000)'s values. In addition, The distinguish difference is that this model leads flexible application in planning level by defining the capacity as stochastic distribution. In detail, this model could prevent a disutility to add a lane for only one excess demand in a road planning level.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.121-131
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• 2014

The stability of rock slope is mainly controlled by the orientation and shear strength of discontinuties in rock mass. Therefore, in kinematic analysis, the orientation of the combination of discontinuities and slope face is examined to determine if certain modes of failure can be occurred. In previous kinematic analysis, a representative orientation of the slope face and mean orientation of discontinuity set were used as input parameters. However, since the orientations of slope face varies according to locations of measurement, the representative slope face orientation could cause misunderstanding for kinematic instability. In addition, since the orientations of each discontinuity are scattered in the same discontinuity set, there is the possibility that uncertainties are involved in the procedure of kinematic analysis. Therefore, in this study, the detailed digital topographic map was used to obtain the orientation of slope face. In addition, the probabilistic analysis approach was utilized to deal properly with the uncertainties in discontinuity orientation. The proposed approach was applied to steep slopes in mountain road located in Baehuryeong, Chunncheon city, Gangwon-Do. The analysis results obtained from the deterministic and probabilistic analysis were compared to check the feasibility of proposed the analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.507-518
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• 2021

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a key technology that has been seeing increasing use in studying the structural and functional innerworkings of the brain. Analyzing the variability of brain connectome through tractography analysis has been used to increase our understanding of disease pathology in humans. However, there lacks standardization of analysis methods for small animals such as mice, and lacks scientific consensus in regard to accurate preprocessing strategies and atlas-based neuroinformatics for images. In addition, it is difficult to acquire high resolution images for mice due to how significantly smaller a mouse brain is compared to that of humans. In this study, we present an Allen Mouse Brain Atlas-based image data analysis pipeline for structural connectivity analysis involving structural region segmentation using mouse brain structural images and diffusion tensor images. Each analysis method enabled the analysis of mouse brain image data using reliable software that has already been verified with human and mouse image data. In addition, the pipeline presented in this study is optimized for users to efficiently process data by organizing functions necessary for mouse tractography among complex analysis processes and various functions.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.47-56
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• 2020

In this study, three levels of W/B(Water to Binder) ratio (0.37, 0.42, 0.47) and substitution ratio of GGBFS (Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag) rate (0 %, 30 %, 50 %) were considered to perform RCPT (Rapid Chloride Diffusion Test) at the 1,095 aged day. Accelerated chloride diffusion coefficient and passed charge of each concrete mixture were assessed according to Tang's method and ASTM C 1202, and improving behaviors of durability performance with increasing aged days are analyzed based on the test results of previous aged days from the preceding study. As the age of concrete increases, the passed charge and diffusion coefficient have been significantly reduced, and especially the concrete specimens containing GGBFS showed a significantly more reduction than OPC(Ordinary Portland Cement) concrete specimen by latent hydraulic activity. In the case of OPC concrete's results of passed charge, at the 1,095 days, two of them were still in the "Moderate" class. So, if only OPC is used as the binder of concrete, the resistance performance for chloride attack is weak. In this study, the time-parameters (m) were derived based on the results of the accelerated chloride diffusion coefficient, and the deterministic and probabilistic analysis for service life were performed by assuming the design variable as a probability function. For probabilistic service life analysis, durability failure probabilities were calculated using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to evaluate service life. The service life of probabilistic method were lower than that of deterministic method, since the target value of PDF (Probability of Durability Failure) was set very low at 10 %. If the target value of PDF suitable for the purpose of using structure can be set and proper variability can be considered for each design variable, it is believed that more economical durability design can be made.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.21-32
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• 1991

The purpose of this paper is to develop a reliability model for slope stability of Earth-rockfill dams which accounts for all uncertainties encountered. The uncertain factors of the design variables include the cohesion, the angle of internal friction, and the porewater Pressure in each zone. More specifically, the model errors in estimating those variables are studied in depth. To reduce the uncertainties due to model errors, updated design variables are obtained using Bayesian Theory. For stability analysis, both the two-dimesional stability analysis and the three-dimensional stability analysis where the end effects and the system reliability concept are considered are used for the reliability calculations. The deterministic safety factor by the three-dimensional analysis is lager than that by the two-dimensional anlysis. However, the probability of failure by the three-dimensional analysis is about 3.5 times larger that by the two-dimensional analysis. It is because the system reliability concept is used in the three-dimensional analysis. The sensitivity analysis shows that the probability of failure is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the cohesion than that of the angle of internal friction.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.64-73
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• 2020

As Korean government and safety-related organizations make continuous efforts to reduce the number of industrial accidents, accident rate has steadily declined since 2010, thereby recording 0.48% in 2017. However, the number of fatalities due to industrial accidents was 1,987 in 2017, which means that more efforts should be made to reduce the number of industrial accidents. As an essential activity for enhancing the system safety, accident analysis can be effectively used for reducing the number of industrial accidents. Accident analysis aims to understand the process of an accident scenario and to identify the plausible causes of the accident. Accident analysis offers useful information for developing measures for preventing the recurrence of an accident or its similar accidents. However, it seems that the current practice of accident analysis in Korean manufacturing companies takes a simplistic accident model, which is based on a linear and deterministic cause-effect relation. Considering the actual complexities underlying accidents, this would be problematic; it could be more significant in the case of human error-related accidents. Accordingly, it is necessary to use a more elaborated accident model for addressing the complexity and nature of human-error related accidents more systematically. Regarding this, HFACS(Human Factors Analysis and Classification System) can be a viable accident analysis method. It is based on the Swiss cheese model and offers a range of causal factors of a human error-related accident, some of which can be judged as the plausible causes of an accident. HFACS has been widely used in several work domains(e.g. aviation and rail industry) and can be effectively used in Korean industries. However, as HFACS was originally developed in aviation industry, the taxonomy of causal factors may not be easily applied to accidents in Korean industries, particularly manufacturing companies. In addition, the typical characteristics of Korean industries need to be reflected as well. With this issue in mind, we developed HFACS-K as a method for analyzing accidents happening in Korean industries. This paper reports the process of developing HFACS-K, the structure and contents of HFACS-K, and a case study for demonstrating its usefulness.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.60 no.5
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• pp.375-387
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• 2023

The subsea power cables are increasingly important for harvesting renewable energies as we develop offshore wind farms located at a long distance from shore. Particularly, the continuous flexural motion of inter-array dynamic power cable of floating offshore wind turbine causes tremendous fatigue damages on the cable. As the subsea power cable consists of the helical structures with various components unlike a mooring line and a steel pipe riser, the fatigue analysis of the cables should be performed using special procedures that consider stick/slip phenomenon. This phenomenon occurs between inner helically wound components when they are tensioned or compressed by environmental loads and the floater motions. In particular, Vortex-induced vibration (VIV) can be generated by currents and have significant impacts on the fatigue life of the cable. In this study, the procedure for VIV fatigue analysis of the dynamic power cable has been established. Additionally, the respective roles of programs employed and required inputs and outputs are explained in detail. Demonstrations of case studies are provided under severely sheared currents to investigate the influences on amplitude variations of dynamic power cables caused by the excitation of high mode numbers. Finally, sensitivity studies have been performed to compare dynamic cable design parameters, specifically, structural damping ratio, higher order harmonics, and lift coefficients tables. In the future, one of the fundamental assumptions to assess the VIV response will be examined in detail, namely a narrow-banded Gaussian process derived from the VIV amplitudes. Although this approach is consistent with current industry standards, the level of consistency and the potential errors between the Gaussian process and the fatigue damage generated from deterministic time-domain results are to be confirmed to verify VIV fatigue analysis procedure for slender marine structures.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.101-113
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• 2010

Recently actual rainfall pattern is decreasing rainy days and increasing in rainfall intensity and the frequency of flood occurrence is also increased. To consider recent situation, Engineers use deterministic methods like a PMP(Probable Maximum Precipitation). If design storm wouldn't occur, increasing of design criteria is extravagant. In addition, the biggest structure cause trouble with residents and environmental problem. And then it is necessary to study considering probability of rainfall parameter in each sub-basin for design of water structure. In this study, stochastic rainfall patterns are generated by using log-ratio method, Johnson system and multivariate Monte Carlo simulation. Using the stochastic rainfall patterns, hydrological analysis, hydraulic analysis and 2nd flooding analysis were performed based on GIS for their applicability. The results of simulations are similar to the actual damage area so the methodology of this study should be used about making a flood risk map or regidental shunting rout map against the region.