• 제목/요약/키워드: Depth of Field

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Studies on the Germination of Chinese Milk Vetch(Astragalus sinicus L.) Seed (자운영(紫雲英)(Astragalus sinicus L.) 종자(種字)의 발아(發芽)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Kim, Chung Soo;Lee, Sok Young;Cho, Jin Wong;Kang, Nae Sung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 1992
  • This experiment was conducted to improve the germination when we sowed Chinese milk vetch (Astragalus sinicus L. Local vas. Jinjoo) in the up-land.. The results are summerized as follows 1. There is no difference on the germination of Chinese milk vetch from $15^{\circ}C$ to $35^{\circ}C$. Germination ratio is 7l%, speed is 60% and mean of germinating day. is about 4. But at $10^{\circ}C$ germination ratio and speed are decreased as 65%, 8% but mean of germinating day is increased as 8. 2. Chemicals used for improve of germination $KNO_3$, $H_2SO_4$, HCl, NaOCl, NaOH and GA were increased about 6~8% of germination ratio. 3. Germination in response to soil covering up depth, surface sowing showed 68% of germination and not more than 4cm the seed is germinated 60% but not less than 6cm, germination ratio is not more than 50%. 4. Soil water content needed in the germination is proper about 70~80% of field water capacity and the ratio is 65% but not. more than 40% germination ratio is not more than 31%. 5. Germination in response to seed treatment (1 day sbsorption /1 day dry) germination ratio is not decreased when it treated 2 times but not less than 3 times it decreased seriously and not less that: 5 times it decreased not more than 31%. 6. Germination in response to seed largement, small seed is not good for germination, so seeds harvested after the majority of the seed is ripened.

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A Criteria on Nitrate Concentration in Soil Solution and Leaf Petiole Juice for Fertigation of Cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.) under Greenhouse Cultivation (시설 오이의 관비재배를 위한 토양용액과 엽병즙액중 질산태 농도 기준 설정)

  • Lim, Jae-Hyun;Lee, In-Bog;Kim, Hong-Lim
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.316-325
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    • 2001
  • To develope a technique for efficiently managing fertilizer for cucumber, a quick test method to quantify nitrate content in soil solution and leaf petiole juice using a simple instrument was investigated. Among the nitrate analyzing instruments such as compact ion meter, nitrate ion meter, and test strip with reflectometer, the paper test-strip used in conjunction with a hand-held reflectometer was most closely correlated with ion chromatography method in nitrate content, and then it would be suggested with a tool that a farmer can use rapidly, conveniently and accurately for nitrate analysis in a field. Nitrate content in soil solution collected by porous cup was very variable on the lapsed time after drip irrigation and the sampling positions such as soil depth and the distance from dripper. As a result, a significant correlation between nitrate contents of soil solutions and 2M KCl soil extract was not found. However, nitrate content in soil solution extracted with a volume basis (soil:water=1:2) showed the highly significant correlation with that in 2M KCl extract. Nitrate contents of cucumber leaf petiole juices was greatly different between upper and lower leaves. Eleven to sixteen positioned-leaf would be a proper sampling position to determine nitrate content in leaf petiole for evaluating nutrient state by plant tissue analysis. From the secondary regression equations between nitrate contents of soil and petiole juice and the yield of cucumber, nitrate levels for real time diagnosis were estimated as $400mg\;l^{-1}$ soil solution by porous cup. $300mg\;l^{-1}$ in a soil volume extraction, and $1400mg\;l^{-1}$ in petiole juice from spring to summer season. In addition, the maximum yield of cucumber fruit in pot test was obtained in nitrate $1500mg\;l^{-1}$ level of petiole juice, which was similar to nitrate $1400mg\;l^{-1}$ in greenhouse trial.

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Application of SP Monitoring in the Pohang Geothermal Field (포항 지열 개발지역에서의 SP 장기 관측)

  • Lim Seong Keun;Lee Tae Jong;Song Yoonho;Song Sung-Ho;Yasukawa Kasumi;Cho Byong Wook;Song Young Soo
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.164-173
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    • 2004
  • To delineate geothermal water movement at the Pohang geothermal development site, Self-Potential (SP) survey and monitoring were carried out during pumping tests. Before drilling, background SP data have been gathered to figure out overall potential distribution of the site. The pumping test was performed in two separate periods: 24 hours in December 2003 and 72 hours in March 2004. SP monitoring started several days before the pumping tests with a 128-channel automatic recording system. The background SP survey showed a clear positive anomaly at the northern part of the boreholes, which may be interpreted as an up-flow Bone of the deep geothermal water due to electrokinetic potential generated by hydrothermal circulation. The first and second SP monitoring during the pumping tests performed to figure out the fluid flow in the geothermal reservoir but it was not easy to see clear variations of SP due to pumping and pumping stop. Since the area is covered by some 360 m-thick tertiary sediments with very low electrical resistivity (less than 10 ohm-m), the electrokinetic potential due to deep groundwater flow resulted in being seriously attenuated on the surface. However, when we compared the variation of SP with that of groundwater level and temperature of pumping water, we could identify some areas responsible to the pumping. Dominant SP changes are observed in the south-west part of the boreholes during both the preliminary and long-term pumping periods, where 3-D magnetotelluric survey showed low-resistivity anomaly at the depth of $600m\~1,000m$. Overall analysis suggests that there exist hydraulic connection through the southwestern part to the pumping well.

A Case Study On Digital Education Design In Foreign Countries By Analysis Education Condition (선진학교 교육현황 분석을 통한 디지털 교육매체 디자인 국외 사례 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Hee
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.30
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    • pp.201-219
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    • 2013
  • Development of digital media in education field at America, UK, Japan etc bring big progress on digital device if education. Japan bring huge progress on digital education by nationally. UK use huge a national budget at digital education development and Sweden which is advanced country of education and a welfare state. Especially UK and Sweden's digital education markets are full now aspect more high quality design. Korea which is advanced country of IT adopted digital text book 2007 with mathematics, through science and English digital text book through the state. Korea's digital text book is in a transition period. that needs case study of advanced country of education for setting design guide and educational effect to digital education media and device plan. All researches are based on LG europe design center at London. Analysis by using KJ method, survey of questionnaire, heuristic method at 4 schools in UK and Sweden. Through analytical researches want to more reality simulation at digital education, and high quality contents with digital socialization. co-work with analog, can get any where, anytime user want without any difficulty. Also interactive GUI design of digital education device to easy to access for user. When plan Digital text book content and design needs methodical design guide for target who students and environment an in-depth study of the appraisal and method. The results of the research are introduce the design plan as a basic research and giving useful design plan to make digital educational media in Korea industrial aspect.

A study on the optimization of tunnel support patterns using ANN and SVR algorithms (ANN 및 SVR 알고리즘을 활용한 최적 터널지보패턴 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Je-Kyum;Kim, YangKyun;Lee, Sean Seungwon
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.617-628
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    • 2022
  • A ground support pattern should be designed by properly integrating various support materials in accordance with the rock mass grade when constructing a tunnel, and a technical decision must be made in this process by professionals with vast construction experiences. However, designing supports at the early stage of tunnel design, such as feasibility study or basic design, may be very challenging due to the short timeline, insufficient budget, and deficiency of field data. Meanwhile, the design of the support pattern can be performed more quickly and reliably by utilizing the machine learning technique and the accumulated design data with the rapid increase in tunnel construction in South Korea. Therefore, in this study, the design data and ground exploration data of 48 road tunnels in South Korea were inspected, and data about 19 items, including eight input items (rock type, resistivity, depth, tunnel length, safety index by tunnel length, safety index by rick index, tunnel type, tunnel area) and 11 output items (rock mass grade, two items for shotcrete, three items for rock bolt, three items for steel support, two items for concrete lining), were collected to automatically determine the rock mass class and the support pattern. Three machine learning models (S1, A1, A2) were developed using two machine learning algorithms (SVR, ANN) and organized data. As a result, the A2 model, which applied different loss functions according to the output data format, showed the best performance. This study confirms the potential of support pattern design using machine learning, and it is expected that it will be able to improve the design model by continuously using the model in the actual design, compensating for its shortcomings, and improving its usability.

Accuracy Analysis of ADCP Stationary Discharge Measurement for Unmeasured Regions (ADCP 정지법 측정 시 미계측 영역의 유량 산정 정확도 분석)

  • Kim, Jongmin;Kim, Seojun;Son, Geunsoo;Kim, Dongsu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.7
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    • pp.553-566
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    • 2015
  • Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers(ADCPs) have capability to concurrently capitalize three-dimensional velocity vector and bathymetry with highly efficient and rapid manner, and thereby enabling ADCPs to document the hydrodynamic and morphologic data in very high spatial and temporal resolution better than other contemporary instruments. However, ADCPs are also limited in terms of the inevitable unmeasured regions near bottom, surface, and edges of a given cross-section. The velocity in those unmeasured regions are usually extrapolated or assumed for calculating flow discharge, which definitely affects the accuracy in the discharge assessment. This study aimed at scrutinizing a conventional extrapolation method(i.e., the 1/6 power law) for estimating the unmeasured regions to figure out the accuracy in ADCP discharge measurements. For the comparative analysis, we collected spatially dense velocity data using ADV as well as stationary ADCP in a real-scale straight river channel, and applied the 1/6 power law for testing its applicability in conjunction with the logarithmic law which is another representative velocity law. As results, the logarithmic law fitted better with actual velocity measurement than the 1/6 power law. In particular, the 1/6 power law showed a tendency to underestimate the velocity in the near surface region and overestimate in the near bottom region. This finding indicated that the 1/6 power law could be unsatisfactory to follow actual flow regime, thus that resulted discharge estimates in both unmeasured top and bottom region can give rise to discharge bias. Therefore, the logarithmic law should be considered as an alternative especially for the stationary ADCP discharge measurement. In addition, it was found that ADCP should be operated in at least more than 0.6 m of water depth in the left and right edges for better estimate edge discharges. In the future, similar comparative analysis might be required for the moving boat ADCP discharge measurement method, which has been more widely used in the field.

A Study on Hoslital Nurses' Preferred Duty Shift and Duty Hours (병원 간호사의 선호근무시간대에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Gyeong-Sik;Jeong, Geum-Hui
    • The Korean Nurse
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.77-96
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    • 1997
  • The duty shifts of hospital nurses not only affect nurses' physical and mental health but also present various personnel management problems which often result in high turnover rates. In this context a study was carried out from October to November 1995 for a period of two months to find out the status of hospital nurses' duty shift patterns, and preferred duty hours and fixed duty shifts. The study population was 867 RNs working in five general hospitals located in Seoul and its vicinity. The questionnaire developed by the writer was used for data collection. The response rate was 85.9 percent or 745 returns. The SAS program was used for data analysis with the computation of frequencies, percentages and Chi square test. The findings of the study are as follows: 1. General characteristics of the study population: 56 percent of respondents was (25 years group and 76.5 percent were "single": the predominant proportion of respondents was junior nursing college graduates(92.2%) and have less than 5 years nursing experience in hospitals(65.5%). For their future working plan in nursing profession, nearly 50% responded as uncertain The reasons given for their career plan was predominantly 'personal growth and development' rather than financial reasons. 2. The interval for rotations of duty stations was found to be mostly irregular(56.4%) while others reported as weekly(16.1%), monthly(12.9%), and fixed terms(4.6%). 3. The main problems related to duty shifts particularly the evening and night duty nurses reported were "not enough time for the family, " "afraid of security problems after the work when returning home late at night." and "lack of leisure time". "problems in physical and physiological adjustment." "problems in family life." "lack of time for interactions with fellow nurses" etc. 4. The forty percent of respondents reported to have '1-2 times' of duty shift rotations while all others reported that '0 time'. '2-3 times'. 'more than 3 times' etc. which suggest the irregularity in duty shift rotations. 5. The majority(62.8%) of study population found to favor the rotating system of duty stations. The reasons for favoring the rotation system were: the opportunity for "learning new things and personal development." "better human relations are possible. "better understanding in various duty stations." "changes in monotonous routine job" etc. The proportion of those disfavor the rotating 'system was 34.7 percent. giving the reasons of"it impedes development of specialization." "poor job performances." "stress factors" etc. Furthermore. respondents made the following comments in relation to the rotation of duty stations: the nurses should be given the opportunity to participate in the. decision making process: personal interest and aptitudes should be considered: regular intervals for the rotations or it should be planned in advance. etc. 6. For the future career plan. the older. married group with longer nursing experiences appeared to think the nursing as their lifetime career more likely than the younger. single group with shorter nursing experiences ($x^2=61.19.{\;}p=.000;{\;}x^2=41.55.{\;}p=.000$). The reason given for their future career plan regardless of length of future service, was predominantly "personal growth and development" rather than financial reasons. For further analysis, the group those with the shorter career plan appeared to claim "financial reasons" for their future career more readily than the group who consider the nursing job as their lifetime career$(x^2$= 11.73, p=.003) did. This finding suggests the need for careful .considerations in personnel management of nursing administration particularly when dealing with the nurses' career development. The majority of respondents preferred the fixed day shift. However, further analysis of those preferred evening shift by age and civil status, "< 25 years group"(15.1%) and "single group"(13.2) were more likely to favor the fixed evening shift than > 25 years(6.4%) and married(4.8%)groups. This differences were statistically significant ($x^2=14.54, {\;}p=.000;{\;}x^2=8.75, {\;}p=.003$). 7. A great majority of respondents(86.9% or n=647) found to prefer the day shifts. When the four different types of duty shifts(Types A. B. C, D) were presented, 55.0 percent of total respondents preferred the A type or the existing one followed by D type(22.7%). B type(12.4%) and C type(8.2%). 8. When the condition of monetary incentives for the evening(20% of salary) and night shifts(40% of. salary) of the existing duty type was presented. again the day shift appeared to be the most preferred one although the rate was slightly lower(66.4% against 86.9%). In the case of evening shift, with the same incentive, the preference rates for evening and night shifts increased from 11.0 to 22.4 percent and from 0.5 to 3.0 percent respectively. When the age variable was controlled. < 25 yrs group showed higher rates(31.6%. 4.8%) than those of > 25 yrs group(15.5%. 1.3%) respectively preferring the evening and night shifts(p=.000). The civil status also seemed to operate on the preferences of the duty shifts as the single group showed lower rate(69.0%) for day duty against 83. 6% of the married group. and higher rates for evening and night duties(27.2%. 15.1%) respectively against those of the married group(3.8%. 1.8%) while a higher proportion of the married group(83. 6%) preferred the day duties than the single group(69.0%). These differences were found to be statistically all significant(p=.001). 9. The findings on preferences of three different types of fixed duty hours namely, B, C. and D(with additional monetary incentives) are as follows in order of preference: B type(12hrs a day, 3days a wk): day shift(64.1%), evening shift(26.1%). night shift(6.5%) C type(12hrs a day. 4days a wk) : evening shift(49.2%). day shift(32.8%), night shift(11.5%) D type(10hrs a day. 4days a wk): showed the similar trend as B type. The findings of higher preferences on the evening and night duties when the incentives are given. as shown above, suggest the need for the introductions of different patterns of duty hours and incentive measures in order to overcome the difficulties in rostering the nursing duties. However, the interpretation of the above data, particularly the C type, needs cautions as the total number of respondents is very small(n=61). It requires further in-depth study. In conclusion. it seemed to suggest that the patterns of nurses duty hours and shifts in the most hospitals in the country have neither been tried for different duty types nor been flexible. The stereotype rostering system of three shifts and insensitiveness for personal life aspect of nurses seemed to be prevailing. This study seems to support that irregular and frequent rotations of duty shifts may be contributing factors for most nurses' maladjustment problems in physical and mental health. personal and family life which eventually may result in high turnover rates. In order to overcome the increasing problems in personnel management of hospital nurses particularly in rostering of evening and night duty shifts, which may related to eventual high turnover rates, the findings of this study strongly suggest the need for an introduction of new rostering systems including fixed duties and appropriate incentive measures for evenings and nights which the most nurses want to avoid, In considering the nursing care of inpatients is the round-the clock business. the practice of the nursing duty shift system is inevitable. In this context, based on the findings of this study. the following are recommended: 1. The further in-depth studies on duty shifts and hours need to be undertaken for the development of appropriate and effective rostering systems for hospital nurses. 2. An introduction of appropriate incentive measures for evening and night duty shifts along with organizational considerations such as the trials for preferred duty time bands, duty hours, and fixed duty shifts should be considered if good quality of care for the patients be maintained for the round the clock. This may require an initiation of systematic research and development activities in the field of hospital nursing administration as a part of permanent system in the hospital. 3. Planned and regular intervals, orientation and training, and professional and personal growth should be considered for the rotation of different duty stations or units. 4. In considering the higher degree of preferences in the duty type of "10hours a day, 4days a week" shown in this study, it would be worthwhile to undertake the R&D type studies in large hospital settings.

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Memory Organization for a Fuzzy Controller.

  • Jee, K.D.S.;Poluzzi, R.;Russo, B.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1993.06a
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    • pp.1041-1043
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    • 1993
  • Fuzzy logic based Control Theory has gained much interest in the industrial world, thanks to its ability to formalize and solve in a very natural way many problems that are very difficult to quantify at an analytical level. This paper shows a solution for treating membership function inside hardware circuits. The proposed hardware structure optimizes the memoried size by using particular form of the vectorial representation. The process of memorizing fuzzy sets, i.e. their membership function, has always been one of the more problematic issues for the hardware implementation, due to the quite large memory space that is needed. To simplify such an implementation, it is commonly [1,2,8,9,10,11] used to limit the membership functions either to those having triangular or trapezoidal shape, or pre-definite shape. These kinds of functions are able to cover a large spectrum of applications with a limited usage of memory, since they can be memorized by specifying very few parameters ( ight, base, critical points, etc.). This however results in a loss of computational power due to computation on the medium points. A solution to this problem is obtained by discretizing the universe of discourse U, i.e. by fixing a finite number of points and memorizing the value of the membership functions on such points [3,10,14,15]. Such a solution provides a satisfying computational speed, a very high precision of definitions and gives the users the opportunity to choose membership functions of any shape. However, a significant memory waste can as well be registered. It is indeed possible that for each of the given fuzzy sets many elements of the universe of discourse have a membership value equal to zero. It has also been noticed that almost in all cases common points among fuzzy sets, i.e. points with non null membership values are very few. More specifically, in many applications, for each element u of U, there exists at most three fuzzy sets for which the membership value is ot null [3,5,6,7,12,13]. Our proposal is based on such hypotheses. Moreover, we use a technique that even though it does not restrict the shapes of membership functions, it reduces strongly the computational time for the membership values and optimizes the function memorization. In figure 1 it is represented a term set whose characteristics are common for fuzzy controllers and to which we will refer in the following. The above term set has a universe of discourse with 128 elements (so to have a good resolution), 8 fuzzy sets that describe the term set, 32 levels of discretization for the membership values. Clearly, the number of bits necessary for the given specifications are 5 for 32 truth levels, 3 for 8 membership functions and 7 for 128 levels of resolution. The memory depth is given by the dimension of the universe of the discourse (128 in our case) and it will be represented by the memory rows. The length of a world of memory is defined by: Length = nem (dm(m)+dm(fm) Where: fm is the maximum number of non null values in every element of the universe of the discourse, dm(m) is the dimension of the values of the membership function m, dm(fm) is the dimension of the word to represent the index of the highest membership function. In our case then Length=24. The memory dimension is therefore 128*24 bits. If we had chosen to memorize all values of the membership functions we would have needed to memorize on each memory row the membership value of each element. Fuzzy sets word dimension is 8*5 bits. Therefore, the dimension of the memory would have been 128*40 bits. Coherently with our hypothesis, in fig. 1 each element of universe of the discourse has a non null membership value on at most three fuzzy sets. Focusing on the elements 32,64,96 of the universe of discourse, they will be memorized as follows: The computation of the rule weights is done by comparing those bits that represent the index of the membership function, with the word of the program memor . The output bus of the Program Memory (μCOD), is given as input a comparator (Combinatory Net). If the index is equal to the bus value then one of the non null weight derives from the rule and it is produced as output, otherwise the output is zero (fig. 2). It is clear, that the memory dimension of the antecedent is in this way reduced since only non null values are memorized. Moreover, the time performance of the system is equivalent to the performance of a system using vectorial memorization of all weights. The dimensioning of the word is influenced by some parameters of the input variable. The most important parameter is the maximum number membership functions (nfm) having a non null value in each element of the universe of discourse. From our study in the field of fuzzy system, we see that typically nfm 3 and there are at most 16 membership function. At any rate, such a value can be increased up to the physical dimensional limit of the antecedent memory. A less important role n the optimization process of the word dimension is played by the number of membership functions defined for each linguistic term. The table below shows the request word dimension as a function of such parameters and compares our proposed method with the method of vectorial memorization[10]. Summing up, the characteristics of our method are: Users are not restricted to membership functions with specific shapes. The number of the fuzzy sets and the resolution of the vertical axis have a very small influence in increasing memory space. Weight computations are done by combinatorial network and therefore the time performance of the system is equivalent to the one of the vectorial method. The number of non null membership values on any element of the universe of discourse is limited. Such a constraint is usually non very restrictive since many controllers obtain a good precision with only three non null weights. The method here briefly described has been adopted by our group in the design of an optimized version of the coprocessor described in [10].

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Studies on The Effects of Several Methods Irrigation Control Affecting The Growth and Yields of Rice Plants and Saving the Irrigation Water (관개조절의 몇가지 방식이 수함의 생육 및 수량과 관개수절약에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • 이창구
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.2322-2341
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    • 1971
  • The studies were conducted to determine the methods of irrigation control which is not only able to save the irrigation water as a adaptable measures for the insufficient irrigation water and the drought but also increase the yields of rice, in the paddy field which shows over percolating tendency through the couple years of 1968 and 1969 at Suwon. These experiments were carried with late maturing rice variety, Norim No. 6 and the major treatments in this experiments were filling the clay under surface soil, periodic irrigation and lining the Vinyl under the surface soil and three replicated completely randomized design was employed. Results obtained will be summarzed as follows. 1. Through the couple years, the plots tilled the clay under 15cm of the surface soil saved the irrigation water by 364% to 45% and 78% to 88% respectively. Particulary, the plot of filling the clay with 9cm thick under 15cm of the surface soil, saved the amount of irrigation water by 45% to 88% and also increased yields by 12% to 20% through the couple years. 2. The plots in which amount of 40mm of irrigation water is irrigated periodically from 5 to 8 days at the stages of tillering and ripening, saved theamount of irrigation water by 41% to 55% and also increased yields by 10% to 16% respectively through the couple years. 3. The plot lined the Vinyl under 15cm of the surface soil, saved the amount of irrigation water by 75% to 88% in accordance with the size of hole. The plot of lining the Vinyl with $3cm/m^2$ hole yielded almost same as the check plot, but in the case of lesser hole than above yielded less. 4. The plots inserted the Vinyl paper in 57cm depth and with 6cm height from the soil surface around the plot to prevent the ridge percolation reduced the amount of percolation by 25% to 33%. 5. The plot filled the wheat straw with 6cm thick under 15cm of the surface soil increased yields by 30% in former year but opposite results were gained in later year. 6. Generally, yields and yield components such as number of spikes of spikes per hill and number of grains per spike were decreased in 1969. These faots are considered to depend upon the rainy and cold weather in the stages of vigorous tillering and less sunshine in the stages of ripening. 7. The variation of characters among the plots will be summarized as follows. (1) Tallerplant height was found in the plots of clay filling and irrigation control. (2) longer culm length and higher yields were founds in the plots filled the clay with 9cm thick and controled the irrigation periodically froir 7 to 8 days. (3) Length of spike increased generally with yields but opposite tendency was found also. (4) Number of spikes per hill increased with yields in the plots of irrigation control. (5) Number of grains per spike increased with yields in the plots filled the clay with 9cm thick and controled irrigation periodically from 5 to 8 days. (6) Tendency of variation of 1000 grain weight is similar to Number of grains per spike. (7) Percentage of complete grains increased in the plot of clay filling and irrigation control.

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An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.79-96
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    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.