• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand risk

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Risk assessment of steel and steel-concrete composite 3D buildings considering sources of uncertainty

  • Lagaros, Nikos D.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.19-43
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    • 2014
  • A risk assessment framework for evaluating building structures is implemented in this study. This framework allows considering sources of uncertainty both on structural capacity and seismic demand. In particular randomness on seismic load, incident angle, material properties, floor mass and structural damping are considered; in addition the choice of fibre modelling versus plastic hinge model is also considered as a source of uncertainty. The main objective of this work is to study the contribution of these sources of uncertainty on the fragilities of steel and steel-reinforced concrete composite 3D building structures. The fragility curves are expressed in the form of a two-parameter lognormal distribution where vertical statistics in conjunction with metaheuristic optimization are implemented for calculating the two parameters.

A Study on the Risk Assessment in LPG Transportation by Tank Lorry (LPG 탱크로리 수송중 위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 이재준;김윤화;윤성렬;엄성인;백종배;고재욱
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.86-92
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    • 1997
  • Demand of LPG and LNG will increase continuously due to high calories, clearness, and convenience for usage. These gases are used widely for power plants, industrial plants, and domestic fuel. But accidents related with gas are increasing in proportion to increment of gas usage. Especially LPG has high ignitability due to weak dispersion to air and accumulation at low place because LPG is heavier than air. There are many hazards during transportation as well as production, storage, and usage of LPG. Commonly, tank lorry is used for inland transportation of LPG. If tank lorry were to raise leakage incidents and then LPG released during transporting, the accidents cause serious effects on the environment as well as human damage of surrounding area. In this study, therefore, hazards which cause LPG of tank lorry to leak during transportation were identified and risk of LPG transportation was assessed quantitatively. Also, the result of this study might be a useful measure for predicting damage and preparing safe transportation strategies of LPG tank lorry.

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A Basic Study on Financial Analysis Model Development by Applying Optimization Method in Residential Officetel. (최적화 기법을 활용한 주거형 오피스텔 프로젝트 수지 분석 모델 개발 기초연구)

  • Jang, Junho;Kim, Kyeong Ryoung;Ha, sungeun;Son, Kiyoung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.159-160
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    • 2018
  • The domestic construction industry is changing its preference for demand and supply along with urbanization and economic development. Accordingly, initial risk assessments is more important than before. Currently, the research related to risk analysis except for apartment studies is insufficient. Therefore, the objective is to suggest a basic study on financial analysis model development by applying optimization method in residential officetel. To achieve the objective. first, the previous studies are investigated. Second, the causal loop diagram is structured based on the collected data. Third, the financial model is developed by using optimization method. In the future, the proposed model can be helpful whether or not conduct execution of an officetel development project to the decision makers.

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The probability approach for the personal risk calculation of the passenger due to a tunnel fire (터널 화재시 승객의 개인적 위험도 계산에 대한 확률적 접근)

  • Kim, Dong-Jin;Hwang, Young-Ha;Jang, Yong-Jun
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.1246-1254
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    • 2008
  • The land transportation is the most common way to transport passengers as well as freight among other mode of transportations and consequently more likely to be constructed for faster and convenient travel In this regard, the demand for tunnel constructions will be increasing and the safety inside the tunnel will be considered major concern more than ever. In this paper, we show probabilistic methodology to calculate the personal risk of each evacuee starting from a different location in a tunnel on fire. Passenger evacuation time and smoke spread time are both assumed to be continuous random variables having specific distributions. The evacuation of passengers at each location and the safety facilities inside the tunnel are also crucial factors to calculate the probability of death.

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Portfolio Management with the Business Cycle and Bayesian Learning (경기주기와 베이지안 학습(Bayesian learning) 기법을 고려한 개인의 자산관리 연구)

  • Park, Seyoung;Lee, Hyun-Tak;Rhee, Yuna;Jang, Bong-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.49-66
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    • 2014
  • This paper studies optimal consumption and investment behaviors of an individual when risky asset returns and her income are affected by the business cycle. The investor considers the incomplete information risk of unobservable macroeconomic conditions and updates her belief of expected risky asset returns through Bayesian learning. We find that the optimal investment strategy, certainty equivalent wealth, and portfolio hedging demand significantly depend on the belief about the macroeconomic conditions.

Suitability of stochastic models for mortality projection in Korea: a follow-up discussion

  • Le, Thu Thi Ngoc;Kwon, Hyuk-Sung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.171-188
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    • 2021
  • Due to an increased demand for longevity risk analysis, various stochastic models have been suggested to evaluate uncertainly in estimated life expectancy and the associated value of future annuity payments. Recently updated data allow us to analyze mortality for a longer historical period and extended age ranges. This study followed up previous case studies using up-to-date empirical data on Korean mortality and the recently developed R package StMoMo for stochastic mortality models analysis. The suitability of stochastic mortality models, focusing on retirement ages, was investigated with goodness-of-fit, validity of models, and ability of generating reasonable sets of simulation paths of future mortality. Comparisons were made across various types of models. Based on the selected models, the variability of important estimated measures associated with pension, annuity, and reverse mortgage were quantified using simulations.

ASSESSING THE RISK-POOLING EFFECT OF WAREHOUSE INVENTORY IN A ONE-WAREHOUSE N-RETAINER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

  • Park, Sangwook
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1998.10a
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    • pp.392-395
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    • 1998
  • This paper suggests the“infinite-retailer model”to approximate expected backorders per cycle of the One-warehouse N-retailer distribution system where the warehouse holds back some of the replenishment quantity to satisfy retailer backorders at the end of the cycle through direct shipping to customers. The main objective is to show the functional relationship between the warehouse inventory and the expected backorders per cycle. We illustrate the relationship using a uniform demand case.

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Characteristics and Risk Factors of High Caries Risk Group in 12-year-old Children Using Data from the 2015 Children's Oral Health Survey (2015년 아동구강건강실태조사 자료를 이용한 12세 아동의 치아우식증 고위험군의 특성과 위험 요인 분석)

  • Kim, Kayoung;Kim, Ah-Hyeon;An, So-Youn
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.327-336
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the characteristics of the high caries risk group of 12-year-old children in Korea. Oral health status and interview data were collected from 23,089 children aged 12 years who participated in the 2015 Korean Children's Oral Health Survey. Subjects were classified into high-risk and low-risk groups according to the Significant caries (SiC) index, and the influence of each variable was analyzed. As a result of the study, the SiC index of the high-risk group was 5.08, which was about 9.6 times higher than the low-risk group. The risk factors associated with the high-risk group were in the order of the number of sealant teeth, dental treatment demand for the past year, perceived oral health status, gender, region, frequency of snack intake per day, and use of oral hygiene aids. In order to improve the oral health of children, appropriate preventive treatment and oral health education should be carried out with reference to the items indicated as risk factors in the high-risk group of dental caries.

Risk Assessment of Stationary Hydrogen Refueling Station by Section in Dispenser Module (고정식 수소충전소에서의 Dispenser Module 내 구역별 위험성 평가)

  • SangJin Lim;MinGi Kim;Su Kim;YoonHo Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.76-85
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    • 2023
  • Demand for hydrogen as a renewable energy resource is increasing. However, unlike conventional fossil fuels, hydrogen requires a dedicated refueling station for fuel supply. A risk assessment of hydrogen refueling stations must be undertaken to secure the infrastructure. Therefore, in this study, a risk assessment for hydrogen refueling stations was conducted through both qualitative and quantitative risk assessments. For the qualitative evaluation, the hydrogen dispenser module was evaluated as two nodes using the hazard and operability (HAZOP) analysis. The risk due to filter clogging and high-pressure accidents was evaluated to be high according to the criticality estimation matrix. For the quantitative risk assessment, the Hydrogen Korea Risk Assessment Module (Hy-KoRAM) was used to indicate the shape of the fire and the range of damage impact, and to evaluate the individual and social risks. The individual risk level was determined of to be as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP). Additional safety measures proposed include placing the hydrogen refueling station about 100m away from public facilities. The social risk level was derived as 1E-04/year, with a frequency of approximately 10 deaths, falling within the ALARP range. As a result of the qualitative and quantitative risk assessments, additional safety measures for the process and a safety improvement plan are proposed through the establishment of a restricted area near the hydrogen refueling station.

An Empirical Study on the Determinants of e-Trust in Import Agency Service Mall (수입대행몰에서 e-신뢰의 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Chae-Hun;Song, Sun-Yok
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.3-24
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    • 2009
  • Import Agency Service Mall, providing customers not only with convenient shopping experiences but also with purchasing, warehousing, shipping, and customs clearance services, have been playing a significant role in rapidly transforming Korean consumers into global consumers. The consumers' great demand for foreign goods(services) has created Import Agency Service Mall(referred to hereafter as IASM) as a new business model of distribution and consumption, which seems to be grown rapidly. This empirical research investigates online shoppers for their trust dimensions for IASM. Consequences of the research are as follows: First, perceived reputation, web-site quality have influenced upon e-trust dimension of the IASM. Second, the level of e-trust consumers is more higher, and then the level of perceived risk is more lower. Third, perceived risk have not influenced upon intention to reuse the IASM. Fourth, the level of e-trust consumers is more higher, and then the level of intention to reuse the IASM is more higher. It is necessary for IASM to be developed its reputation and web-site quality in order to obtain customer's trust. Accordingly, this research will be helping IASM have insight for marketing strategies, and constantly should be studied about action and mind of consumer.

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