• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand estimation

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Supply and demand of nursing manpower for small and medium hospitals in rural area: nursing shortage versus wage disparity (중소병원의 간호인력 수급 논쟁: 인력난 vs 임금난)

  • Park, Kwang-Ok
    • Perspectives in Nursing Science
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.67-76
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    • 2009
  • Recently, small and medium-sized hospitals which are located in rural areas have many difficulties in securing high quality nurses. That is because working environments for nurses in small and medium-sized hospitals in rural areas are poor compared with those of big hospitals in urban. As a result, the migration of nurses from small and medium-sized hospitals in rural areas to big hospitals in urban is continuously happening. In general, big hospitals provide nurses with high level of salary and fringe benefits. To prevent the migration of nurses, chief executive officers of small & medium hospitals in rural areas have been interested in improving nurses' working conditions including wages. Also, they have raised nurses' salary and improved working conditions. But, basically these individualized efforts have some limit. In connection with this, medical interest groups have produced various voices in terms of interpretation and solutions for these issues. However, from the future perspectives, it seems evident that two approaches for both manpower supply and demand plans of nurses are necessary. They should contain not only accurate estimation of the supply-demand of nursing manpower but also the improvement of working conditions and wages of nurses. Estimation of nursing manpower supply-demand depends on the standards and criteria being used. Supply and demand may be met or not in accordance with the points emphasized on the decision. In the articles, issues regarding nursing manpower, levels of salary, other working conditions and social support system for child care are discussed. According to Joe's report (2005), most health institutions did not meet the guidelines of nurse staffing in Medical Law. The wages of nurse vary on every hospital and there is a big difference in wages' range. The average starting salary for a nurse is 22 million won a year. In case of tertiary hospitals, it reaches up to 30 million won a year. Nurse as a profession should have a strong responsibility and should take care of the patients for 24 hours with three working shifts. Also, most of them are female who have the burden of child rearing. Therefore, it is suggested to increase the salary, to provide comfortable working conditions, and to have social support system for nurses with household affairs.

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Web based Customer Power Demand Variation Estimation System using LSTM (LSTM을 이용한 웹기반 수용가별 전력수요 변동성 평가시스템)

  • Seo, Duck Hee;Lyu, Joonsoo;Choi, Eun Jeong;Cho, Soohwan;Kim, Dong Keun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.587-594
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to propose a power demand volatility evaluation system based on LSTM and not to verify the accuracy of the demand module which is a core module, but to recognize the sudden change of power pattern by using deeplearning in the actual power demand monitoring system. Then we confirm the availability of the module. Also, we tried to provide a visualized report so that the manager can determine the fluctuation of the power usage patten by applying it as a module to the web based system. It is confirmed that the power consumption data shows a certain pattern in the case of government offices and hospitals as a result of implementation of the volatility evaluation system. On the other hand, in areas with relatively low power consumption, such as residential facilities, it was not appropriate to evaluate the volatility.

Improvement of Railway Demand Forecasting Methodology under the Various Transit Fare Systems of Seoul Metropolitan Area (Focused on Mode Share) (수도권 대중교통 요금제의 다양화에 따른 철도 수요예측 방법론의 개선(수단분담을 중심으로))

  • Choe, Gi-Ju;Lee, Gyu-Jin;Ryu, In-Gon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.171-181
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    • 2010
  • The integrated transit fare system of Seoul metropolitan area has given positively evaluated with reduction of user cost and activating the transfer behavior from its opening year, July 2007. However, there were only few research about railway demand forecasting methodology, especially mode share, has conducted under the integrated fare system. This study focuses on the utility estimation by each mode under the integrated fare system, and on the coefficient actualization relates on travel time and travel cost estimation with Household Travel Survey Data 2006. Also the railway demand analysis methodology under various fare systems is presented. The methodology from this study is expected to improve accuracy and usefulness in railway demand analysis.

Customers' Needs Analysis for Investment Decision Making in Residential Facility for Retired Seniors (유료노인주거시설에 대한 투자 의사결정을 위한 수요자 요구 분석)

  • Chin, Mee-Youn;Choi, Jong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 2008
  • It is expected that the market of residential facility for retired seniors will be a new investment field for construction firms. This study describes the questionnaire survey analysis results of potential customers' demand for the facility. For comparison purpose, direct construction cost was estimated by estimation experts. In addition, a case analysis was conducted to compare direct cost and indirect project cost with the experts' estimation. According to the questionnaire survey analysis, it is observed that there were significant differences in demand between groups which are classified by the regions, living expenditures, the level of property ownership and the scales of residence. From an investor's perspective, investment decision on residential facility for retired seniors should be made considering bothe the level of returns which can be generated from the investment and the customers' needs.

A Study on the Estimation of Human Damage Caused by the LP Gas Flame in Enclosure using Probit Model

  • Leem, Sa-Hwan;Huh, Yong-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.43-48
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    • 2009
  • The energetic and environmental problems have been getting serious after the revolution of modern industry. Therefore, demand of gas as an eco-friendly energy source is increasing. With the demand of gas, the use of gas is also increased, so injury and loss of life by the fire have been increasing every year. Hence the influence on flame caused by Vapor Cloud Explosion in enclosure of experimental booth was calculated by using the API regulations. And the accident damage was estimated by applying the influence on the adjacent structures and people into the PROBIT model. According to the probit analysis, the spot which is 5meter away from the flame has nearly 100% of the damage probability by the first-degree burn, 27.8% of the damage probability by the second-degree burn and 14.5% of the death probability by the fire.

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Weekly maximum power demand forecasting using model in consideration of temperature estimation (기온예상치를 고려한 모델에 의한 주간최대전력수요예측)

  • 고희석;이충식;김종달;최종규
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.511-516
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    • 1996
  • In this paper, weekly maximum power demand forecasting method in consideration of temperature estimation using a time series model was presented. The method removing weekly, seasonal variations on the load and irregularities variation due to unknown factor was presented. The forecasting model that represent the relations between load and temperature which get a numeral expected temperature based on the past 30 years(1961~1990) temperature was constructed. Effect of holiday was removed by using a weekday change ratio, and irregularities variation was removed by using an autoregressive model. The results of load forecasting show the ability of the method in forecasting with good accuracy without suffering from the effect of seasons and holidays. Percentage error load forecasting of all seasons except summer was obtained below 2 percentage. (author). refs., figs., tabs.

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Demand estimation for the establishment of maritime safety education and training center in Youngnam region of Korea (영남권 해양안전교육센터 구축을 위한 수요추정)

  • Lim, Sangseop
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2021.01a
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    • pp.327-328
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    • 2021
  • 본 논문은 2014년 세월호 사고 이후 해양재난사고에 대한 국민들의 경각심이 고조되었으며 해양레저인구증가로 인한 해양사고가 증가되는 상황에서 사고예방 및 해양안전문화 고취를 위한 해양안전교육센터 구축하고자 수요추정을 수행하였다. 특히, 우리나라 대부분의 해양안전체험관과 유사한 체험관들은 대부분 전라, 경기지역에 분포하고 있어 지역 편향을 해소하는 차원에서 동남권 안전센터 구축이 필요한 상황이며 해양레저 및 해양산업의 중심이 영남권에 위치하고 있기 때문에 안전교육센터의 구축의 정책적인 타당성이 있다. 본 논문에서는 해양안전교육센터 수요추정을 중력모형을 활용하여 수행하였으며 사회경제적인 타당성의 근거로서 활용이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

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Estimation of kerosene demand function using time series data (시계열 자료를 이용한 등유수요함수 추정)

  • Jeong, Dong-Won;Hwang, Byoung-Soh;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.245-249
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    • 2013
  • This paper attempts to estimate the kerosene demand function in Korea over the period 1981-2012. As the kerosene demand function provides us information on the pattern of consumer's kerosene consumption, it can be usefully utilized in predicting the impact of policy variables such as kerosene price and forecasting the demand for kerosene. We apply least absolute deviations and least median squares estimation methods as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the kerosene demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the kerosene demand are estimated to be -0.468 and 0.409, respectively. They are statisitically significant at the 1% level. The short-run price and income elasticities portray that demand for kerosene is price- and income-inelastic. This implies that the kerosene is indispensable goods to human-being's life, thus the kerosene demand would not be promptly adjusted to responding to price and/or income change. However, long-run price and income elasticities reveal that the demand for kerosene is price- and income-elastic in the long-run.

Calculation Methods of Parking Demand for Housing Using Parking Basic Units Analysis (주차원단위 분석을 통한 주택의 주차수요산정기법 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2008
  • Rapid urbanization causes a variety of transportation problems, including parking. Then transportation engineers would get involved in trying to solve parking problem. Estimation of parking demand is essential for finding a solution to the parking problem. Estimation of parking demand generally uses the "parking basic unit"; however, the parking basic unit does not totally determine parking demand. This study analyzes the problems with using the parking basic unit with a field investigation and the establishment of a new parking demand calculation model. Parking basic units estimated from the mean parking basic unit method are higher than those resulting from a regression analysis. However, parking basic units resulting from these methods fail to satisfy parking demand in many buildings. Analysis results for a cumulative distribution of parking basic units are reasonable if they satisfy 88% of parking demand in buildings. However, parking basic units that satisfy 88% of parking demand in buildings is a problem in some areas with an oversupply of parking lots. Ultimately, this study establishes a parking demand calculation model.

Research Trend for Improvement of Freight Demand Estimation Methods (화물수요추정방법 개선을 위한 국내외 연구동향 분석 연구)

  • Shin, Seung-Jin;Park, Dong-Joo;Oh, Jeong-Taek;Kim, Si-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.45-58
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    • 2012
  • The traditional four-step demand model has limits in that it cannot reasonably reflect the logistic characteristics of freight transportation system. This is likely to cause problems when estimating the effects of logistics facilities. In order to enhance the reliability and availability of the freight demand estimation procedure it is needed to develop freight demand model which takes into account the logistic characteristics of firms. In the late 1990s, a number of researches on freight demand model considering logistics behaviors began in Europe while a few studies in the area have been conducted recently in Korea. This paper reviews recent advances of the freight model developments in the context of logistic behavior consideration. The main topics include 1) commodity classification, 2) P/C(Production- Consumption) estimation, 3) logistics network representation, 4) logistics chain model, and 5) commodity flow survey. In addition, this paper proposes future direction of the freight demand models with respect to the consideration of logistics characteristics.