• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand analysis

Search Result 6,689, Processing Time 0.036 seconds

Detection of Phantom Transaction using Data Mining: The Case of Agricultural Product Wholesale Market (데이터마이닝을 이용한 허위거래 예측 모형: 농산물 도매시장 사례)

  • Lee, Seon Ah;Chang, Namsik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.161-177
    • /
    • 2015
  • With the rapid evolution of technology, the size, number, and the type of databases has increased concomitantly, so data mining approaches face many challenging applications from databases. One such application is discovery of fraud patterns from agricultural product wholesale transaction instances. The agricultural product wholesale market in Korea is huge, and vast numbers of transactions have been made every day. The demand for agricultural products continues to grow, and the use of electronic auction systems raises the efficiency of operations of wholesale market. Certainly, the number of unusual transactions is also assumed to be increased in proportion to the trading amount, where an unusual transaction is often the first sign of fraud. However, it is very difficult to identify and detect these transactions and the corresponding fraud occurred in agricultural product wholesale market because the types of fraud are more intelligent than ever before. The fraud can be detected by verifying the overall transaction records manually, but it requires significant amount of human resources, and ultimately is not a practical approach. Frauds also can be revealed by victim's report or complaint. But there are usually no victims in the agricultural product wholesale frauds because they are committed by collusion of an auction company and an intermediary wholesaler. Nevertheless, it is required to monitor transaction records continuously and to make an effort to prevent any fraud, because the fraud not only disturbs the fair trade order of the market but also reduces the credibility of the market rapidly. Applying data mining to such an environment is very useful since it can discover unknown fraud patterns or features from a large volume of transaction data properly. The objective of this research is to empirically investigate the factors necessary to detect fraud transactions in an agricultural product wholesale market by developing a data mining based fraud detection model. One of major frauds is the phantom transaction, which is a colluding transaction by the seller(auction company or forwarder) and buyer(intermediary wholesaler) to commit the fraud transaction. They pretend to fulfill the transaction by recording false data in the online transaction processing system without actually selling products, and the seller receives money from the buyer. This leads to the overstatement of sales performance and illegal money transfers, which reduces the credibility of market. This paper reviews the environment of wholesale market such as types of transactions, roles of participants of the market, and various types and characteristics of frauds, and introduces the whole process of developing the phantom transaction detection model. The process consists of the following 4 modules: (1) Data cleaning and standardization (2) Statistical data analysis such as distribution and correlation analysis, (3) Construction of classification model using decision-tree induction approach, (4) Verification of the model in terms of hit ratio. We collected real data from 6 associations of agricultural producers in metropolitan markets. Final model with a decision-tree induction approach revealed that monthly average trading price of item offered by forwarders is a key variable in detecting the phantom transaction. The verification procedure also confirmed the suitability of the results. However, even though the performance of the results of this research is satisfactory, sensitive issues are still remained for improving classification accuracy and conciseness of rules. One such issue is the robustness of data mining model. Data mining is very much data-oriented, so data mining models tend to be very sensitive to changes of data or situations. Thus, it is evident that this non-robustness of data mining model requires continuous remodeling as data or situation changes. We hope that this paper suggest valuable guideline to organizations and companies that consider introducing or constructing a fraud detection model in the future.

Analysis of the Elderly Travel Characteristics and Travel Behavior with Daily Activity Schedules (the Case of Seoul, Korea) (활동 스케줄 분석을 통한 고령자의 통행특성과 통행행태에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Sang-Eon;Jeong, Jin-Hyeok;Kim, Sun-Gwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.24 no.5 s.91
    • /
    • pp.89-108
    • /
    • 2006
  • Korea has been entering the ageing society as the population of age over 65 shared over 7% since the year 2000. The ageing society needs to have transportation facility considering elderly people's travel behavior. This study aims to understand the elderly people's travel behavior using recent data in Korea. The activity schedule approach begins with travel outcomes are part of an activitv scheduling decision. For tho?e approach. used discrete choice models (especially. Nested Logit Model) to address the basic modeling problem capturing decision interaction among the many choice dimensions of the immense activity schedule choice set The day activity schedule is viewed as a sot of tours and at-home activity episodes tied togather with overarching day activity pattern using the Seoul Metropolitan Area Transportation Survey data, which was conducted in June, 2002. Decisions about a specific tour in the schedule are conditioned by the choice of day activity pattern. The day activity scheduling model estimated in this study consists of tours interrelated in a day activity pattern. The day activity pattern model represents the basic decision of activity participation and priorities and places each activity in a configuration of tours and at-home episodes. Each pattern alternative is defined by the primary activity of the day, whether the primary activity occurs at home or away, and the type of tour for the primary activity. In travel mode choice of the elderly and non-workers, especially, travel cost was found to be important in understanding interpersonal variations in mode choice behavior though, travel time was found to be less important factor in choosing travel mode. In addition, although, generally, the elderly was likely to choose transit mode, private mode was preferred for the elderly over 75 years old owing to weakened physical health for such things as going up and down of stairs. Therefore. as entering the ageing society, transit mode should be invested heavily in transportation facility Planning tor improving elderly transportation service. Although the model has not yet been validated in before-and-after prediction studies. this study gives strong evidence of its behavioral soundness, current practicality. and potential for improving reliability of transportation Projects superior to those of the best existing systems in Korea.

A Study of Fish Community on Up and Downstream of Hwabuk Dam Under Construction in the Upper Wie Stream. (위천 상류에 건설 중인 화북댐 상 하류 어류군집에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Jin-Won;Kim, Hee-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • v.42 no.2
    • /
    • pp.260-269
    • /
    • 2009
  • Hwabuk Dam has been under construction to reduce flood damage in Nakdong River watershed and to supply stable water for middle area of Gyeongbuk Province. Therefore, fish investigation in up and downstream of the dam was conducted from 2004 to 2008 in order to determine any negative effect on fish community due to dam construction and to use as fundamental data for conserving species diversity and maintaining stream health. According to data analysis on water quality, temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, suspended solids, and total E-coli had seasonal variation, but they did not significantly differ in sites. However, biological and chemical oxygen demand, chlorophyll-a, nitrogen, and phosphorus representing organic matter and nutrient concentration were higher in upper site and decreased to lower site so that they differed by site. Concentration of arsenic among the heavy metals was less than 0.05 mg $L^{-1}$, which is regulated for protection of human health in water quality standard, except for 0.092 mg $L^{-1}$ in June 2005. During the study period, the total number of fish caught from the 6 sites was 10,263 representing 7 families 19 species. Among them, dominant and subdominant species were Korean chub (Zacco koreanus, 62.5%) and Chinese minnow (Rhynchocypris oxycephalus, 10.6%) which inhabit mostly in mid and upper streams, Korea. Among the 19 species, Korean endemic species were 9 species (47.4%) including Korean slender gudgeon (Squalidus gracilis majimae), Korean dark sleeper (Odontobutis platycephala), and Korean shiner (Coreoleuciscus splendidus). There was several individuals of the $1^{st}$-class endangered species, Naktong nose loach (Koreocobitis nahtongensis), caught in 2005${\sim}$2007, and no introduced species of fish was found in entire sampling period. According to result of community analysis, dominance index decreased toward lower site, but diversity and richness indices increased toward lower site. The equation of length-weight relationship on the dominant species was TW=0.000003$(TL)^{3.2603}$. The parameter b in the equation was greater than 3.0 indicating good nutritional condition in the populations. Compared to populations of Korean chub in other streams, the population in Hwabuk Dam watershed had higher mean of condition factor by size indicating better growth rate. With fish fauna and multi-metric health assessment model in each sampling attempt, index of biotic integrity (IBI) was evaluated and it resulted mostly in good (26${\sim}$35) and excellent (36${\sim}$40) condition in all sites, and the mean of IBI was the highest in site 5. The results indicate that it is very important to study not only environmental impact assessment with fish composition but also stream health assessment in order to conserve healthy aquatic ecosystem.

A Study on the Establishment and Operation of a Regulatory Response Framework in connection with the Regulatory Strength of the Licensing Policy for New Medical Devices -Focusing on the Application of FMEA- (의료기기 신제품의 인허가정책 규제강도에 연계한 규제대응 프레임워크 수립 및 운영에 관한 연구 - FMEA 적용을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Gyosu;Ru, Gyuha;Kim, Yeonhee
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
    • /
    • v.28 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-26
    • /
    • 2020
  • Due to the spread of Corona 19 around the world, Infectious Disease Medicine and New Medical Devices such as Diagnostic Agent are being rapidly developed and launched, and for the fast supply and demand of these, each country has eased import regulations or has implemented policies for fast approval(NIDS, 2020). On the other hand, New Developed Medical Devices that are not related to New Infectious Diseases, they are still entering the market through strict licensing and licensing regulations, such as delay and cancellation in the test inspection process, etc. Therefore, This Study specialized in the government-managed laws encountered when New Medical Devices enter the market, derive Factors influencing the Strength of Regulations, analyzes the Strength of Regulations, and proposes a Regulatory Response Framework. The Research Method was conducted by Literature Research, was applied by Failure Mode and Effects Analysis(FMEA) Method, Expert Interview(1st): Idea Collection, Expert Interview(2nd): Validation, and Priority through the Application Process of FMEA Method. A Method of Quantifying the Intensity of Regulation was proposed by multiplying the Impact of the Influencing Factors for each stage of regulation and the Burden Impact for each type of Regulatory Affairs to find the Importance of the Regulatory Factors and multiplying the Severity of the Regulatory Impact. The Implications are that major overseas countries and the Korean government are actively responding with Special Regulatory Policies and Mitigation Policies for fast licensing of New Developed Medical Devices in accordance with Corona 19. It is expected that the direction for improvement of regulations and measures to respond to regulations will be implemented so that a more proactive and preemptive response to the regulatory process of the licensing policy for New Devices can be achieved.

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Effect Analysis by Cool Biz and Warm Biz (쿨맵시 및 온맵시 복장 착용에 의한 온실가스 감축 효과 분석)

  • Yeo, So-Young;Ryu, Ji-Yeon;Lee, Sue-Been;Kim, Dai-Gon;Hong, Yoo-Deog;Seong, Mi-Ae;Lee, Kyoung-Mi
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
    • /
    • v.2 no.2
    • /
    • pp.93-106
    • /
    • 2011
  • Republic of Korea officially announced its mid term reduction target which reduce about 30% of BAU GHG emission by 2020 in the 15th meeting of UNFCCC(COP 15) held in Copenhagen, Denmark 2009. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to understand the serious of climate change and take part in GHG reduction not only industry but also the nation. However, such positive participation in green life which may cause inconvenient of the life of the people. It should be accomplished with providing reliable information. This study suggests the scientific potentialities of GHG emission by guideline on low carbon life and green life to form and change a lifestyle suitable for coping with climate change. And also, this study quantitate the GHG reduction which may reduce demand for air conditioning by cool biz and warm biz. In Korea, this campaign has become known as 'CoolMaebsi' by Ministry of Environmental of Korea. 'CoolMaebsi' is a compound word of 'Cool' which means feel refreshed, and 'Maebsi' is a Korean word which means attire. Though this campaign is effective and significant to reduce the GHG emission yet there were no study on quantitative analysis. Therefore this study calculated reduced energy consumption and potential GHG emission by measuring variation of skin temperature. As the result, wearing warm biz and cool biz have an effect of reducing not only the energy consumption but also GHG emission. To achieve the low carbon society, it is necessary to improve the energy saving system and introduce the policy which guide to change a life style.

Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.33-49
    • /
    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

Analysis the Appropriate Schedule for the Installment Payment Amount and Establishment of the Post sale System and Policy in the Apartment Construction (공동주택 건설사업에서 후분양의 제도 및 정책 수립을 위한 분담금 납부 적정시기 분석)

  • Yoon, Inhwan;Bae, Byungyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.59-65
    • /
    • 2021
  • Since the 2016 "Housing Act Partial Amendment" and the "2018 Housing Comprehensive Amendment Plan", interest in the pre sale system and post sale system of apartment houses has been on the rise. In order to compare the advantages and disadvantages of the pre sale system and the post sale system of apartment houses, and to establish the basis for the institutional policy of the post sale system, a questionnaire survey method was used for tenants of the apartment house from the public side, and issues of time and cost. The time series analysis method is intended to suggest an appropriate time for payment of contributions. Accordingly, through a review of existing theories and literature, the post sale system of public and private institutions was organized, and through a questionnaire survey, the path to securing pre sale money, product information of the model house, and the degree of awareness of the effect of the post sale system were investigated. For the post sale fund support and payment method, it is necessary to increase the commercial line for existing financiers from the user's point of view, and it is necessary to operate in consideration of the economic power of the pre sale market by region. Both 60% post sale and 80% post sale have a price range of up to KRW 10 million, and the total interest rate is 5.0%, and the annual interest rate is about 2.8% for 60% post sale, and about 2.1% for 80% post sale, which is lower than the current 3.1%. I need an interest rate. The research is a perception survey targeting a total of 5,213 households in a sample of after sale apartments in public institutions. As the actual values are analyzed using a time series on the effects of market supply and demand and market prices, there is a limit to applying them to prospective residents of private apartments. In addition, to respond to first time tenants, a questionnaire survey was conducted on five complexes that have moved in within the last five years.

The Demand Analysis of Water Purification of Groundwater for the Horticultural Water Supply (시설원예 용수 공급을 위한 지하수 정수 요구도 분석)

  • Lee, Taeseok;Son, Jinkwan;Jin, Yujeong;Lee, Donggwan;Jang, Jaekyung;Paek, Yee;Lim, Ryugap
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.21 no.12
    • /
    • pp.510-523
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study analyzed groundwater quality in hydroponic cultivation facilities. Through this study, the possibility of groundwater use was evaluated according to the quality of the groundwater for hydroponic cultivation facilities. Good groundwater quality, on average, is pH 6.61, EC 0.27 dS/m, NO3-N 7.64 mg/L, NH4+-N 0.80 mg/L, PO4-P 0.09 mg/L, K+ 6.26 mg/L, Ca2+ 18.57 mg/L, Mg2+ 4.38 mg/L, Na+ 20.85 mg/L, etc. All of these satisfy the water quality standard for raw water in nutrient cultivation. But in the case of farmers experiencing problems with groundwater quality, most of the items exceeded the water quality standard. As a result of the analysis, it was judged that purifying groundwater of unsuitable quality for crop cultivation, and using it as raw water, was effective in terms of water quality and soil purification. If an agricultural water purification system is constructed based on the results of this study, it is judged that the design will be easy because the items to be treated can be estimated. If a purification system is established, it can use groundwater directly in the facility and for horticulture. These study results will be available for use in sustainable agriculture and environments.

A Study on the Quality Control of Transvaginal Ultrasound Transducer using ATS-539 Ultrasound Phantom (ATS-539 초음파 팬텀을 이용한 경질 초음파 검사용 탐촉자의 정도관리에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Ji Hye;Heo, Yeong Cheol;Kim, Yon min;Han, Dong Kyoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
    • /
    • v.15 no.4
    • /
    • pp.463-472
    • /
    • 2021
  • Demand for examinations using transvaginal transducer with high frequencies is increasing to observe pelvic organs in gynecological ultrasound tests. However, the quality control of the replacement probe in clinical trials is not properly implemented and the evaluation criteria have not been established. Therefore, 58 transvaginal transducers and 20 convex transducers were applied to the ATS-539 ultrasound phantom for 20 ultrasound devices currently in clinical use to obtain their respective images and measure them quantitatively and qualitatively. For quantitative measurements, vertical measurement, horizontal measurement, and focal zone and qualitative measurements, dead zone, axial·lateral resolution, sensitivity, functional resolution, gray scale·dynamic range were performed. Quantitative statistical analysis showed significant differences between the two transducers in the lateral measurement and local area (p<0.05). qualitative comparative analysis showed differences in sensitivity and functional resolution. This occurs due to the difference in frequency between transducers and the transducer's injection geometry. Based on the above experiments, the tolerance for horizontal measurement is raised to 10% (±8 mm), the tolerance for sensitivity is observed up to 6 cm deep, which is 12 cm deep,which is the level of the third quartile (75%). The permissible range of functional resolution is up to 6 (12 cm), 6 (12 cm), 11 (11 cm), 9 (9 cm), 6 (6 cm) target, which is the level of the third quartile (75%). It is considered reasonable to adjust the depth of targets in gray scale·dynamic range to measure at a depth of 2 cm, which is 50% of the depth of 4 cm. As above, the criteria for evaluating the quality of transvaginal transducer for use in the past have been proposed and it is expected that this study will be used as a basic data for the production of phantom exclusively for transvaginal transducer in the future.

A Study on the Influence of Workers' Aspiration for Academic Needs on Participation in University Education (근로자의 학업욕구 열망이 대학교육 참여에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ji-Hun;Mun, Bok-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
    • /
    • v.15 no.3
    • /
    • pp.231-241
    • /
    • 2021
  • This study intended to present strategies and implications for attracting new students and customized education to university officials through research on the participation of workers' academic aspirations in university education. Thus, variables were derived by analyzing prior data, and causal settings between variables and questionnaires were developed. Subject to the survey, 331 workers interested in participating in university education were collected through interpersonal interviews. The collected data were dataized, and reliability and feasibility verification and frequency analysis were conducted. Finally, we validate the fit of the structural equation model and the causal relationship for each concept. Therefore, the results of the validation show the following implications. First, university officials should be motivated by a mentor and mentee system with experienced people who have switched to a suitable vocational group through university education. It will also be necessary to develop and disseminate programs so that they can continue to develop themselves for the future. To this end, it will be necessary to help them understand their aptitude and strengths through consultation with experts. Second, university officials should strengthen public relations so that prospective students can know the cases and information of the job transformation of the admitted workers through recommendations. It will also be necessary to develop university education programs that can self-develop, accept various ideas through "public contest", and provide accurate information about university education to workers through re-processing. Third, university officials should provide workers with a program that allows them to catch two rabbits: job transformation and self-improvement through university education. In other words, it is necessary to stimulate the motivation of workers by providing various information such as visiting advanced overseas companies, obtaining various certificates, moving between departments of blue-collar and white-collar, and transfer opportunities. Fourth, university officials should actively promote university education programs related to this by participating in university education and receiving systematic education and the flow of social environment. Finally, university officials will need to consult and promote workers so that they can self-develop when they participate in college education, and they will have to figure out what they need for self-development through demand surveys and analysis.