• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.23 no.59
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• pp.43-51
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• 2000

Many organizations are currently adjusting the statistical forecasts with qualitative factors. However, so for a few forecasting system with adjustment process have been developed. They have difficulties in managing knowledge and estimating the quantity of adjustment. In this study, the forecasting support system adopting the frame based knowledge representation and containing the decision making scheme for adjustment is proposed to overcome these difficulties. According to the experiments, the proposed system improves the forecasting performance on gasoline case.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.113-122
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• 1995

Discussions are given to Korea all transport market and its intrinsic problems related to airport spatial distribution and facility capacities. Regional development impacts and demand forecasts are major variables for identifying a future direction for restructuring air transport market in Korea. A brief introduction is also given to the New Seoul International Airport(NSIA) that is expected to lead domestic and the North East Asia ail transport market.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.141-154
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• 2018

In order to meet the ever-increasing demand for international air travel, several plans are underway to open new airports and expand existing provincial airports. However, existing air demand forecasts have been based on the total air demand in Korea or the air demand among major cities. There is not much forecast of regional air demand considering local characteristics. In this study, the outbound air travel demand in the southeastern region of Korea was analyzed and the fixed-effects model using panel data was proposed as an optimal model that can reflect the inherent characteristics of metropolitan areas which are difficult to observe in reality. The results of model validation show that panel data analysis effectively addresses the spurious regression and unobserved heterogeneity that are difficult to handle in a model using only a few macroeconomic indicators with time series characteristics. Various statistical validation and conformance tests suggest that the fixed-effects model proposed in this study is superior to other econometric models in predicting demand for international demand in the southeastern region.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.275-284
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• 2016

Accurate electricity demand forecasts is essential in reducing energy spend and preventing imbalance of the power supply. In forcasting electricity demand, we considered double seasonal Holt-Winters model and TBATS model with sliding window. We selected a specific time zone as the reference line of daily electric demand because it is least likely to be influenced by external factors. The forecasting performance have been evaluated in terms of RMSE and MAPE criteria. We used the observations ranging January 4, 2009 to December 31 for testing data. For validation data, the records has been used between January 1, 2012 and December 29, 2012.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.419-442
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• 2020

The majority of the natural gas demand in South Korea is mainly determined by the heating demand. Accordingly, there is a distinct seasonality in which the gas demand increases in winter and decreases in summer. Moreover, the degree of sensitiveness to temperature on gas demand has changed over time. This study firstly introduces changing temperature response function (TRF) to capture effects of changing seasonality. The temperature effect (TE), estimated by integrating temperature response function with daily temperature density, represents for the amount of gas demand change due to variation of temperature distribution. Also, this study presents an innovative way in forecasting daily temperature density by employing functional principal component analysis based on daily max/min temperature forecasts for the five big cities in Korea. The forecast errors of the temperature density and gas demand are decreased by 50% and 80% respectively if we use the proposed forecasted density rather than the average daily temperature density.

• Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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• v.35 no.6
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• pp.129-136
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• 2020

Korea launched the world's first commercial 5G services in April 2019. Mobile traffic is expected to increase further with the acceleration of mobile-centric data utilization. It is one of the most important indexes of the growth of the mobile communications market, and it has a close relationship with frequency demand and supply, network management, and information communication policy. To overcome the limitations of an analytical solution due to the high complexity of the real world, this paper estimates the diffusion of 5G users using systemic thinking and the behavior of individual agents. Based on these demand forecasts, contributions to the establishment of strategic policies are suggested. For better understanding, global 5G predictions of subscribers and mobile traffic are also compared.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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• 2010.09a
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• pp.291-291
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• 2010

Emerging global economic growth and increasing demand for energy supply and demand imbalance and the excessive use of fossil fuels existing the rapidly increasing greenhouse gas emissions and resource depletion of global energy crisis is deepening. Accordingly, improvement of living conditions around and through the natural ecological preservation and the need for a comfortable life for the meeting the importance of energy management and consumption are emerging. Many in the field of architecture for energy-saving measures and conducts research and analysis from the early stages to verify the energy performance of BIM (Building Information Model) technology development and commercialization through the building's energy performance to an objective technology forecasts Analysis of the existing building energy performance in waste management also possible that "BIM-based green building process, the possibility of" suggested. In this study, BIM through the analysis of information using the structures for the management of waste, energy and physical data collected by Mapping it can effectively plan resources for recycling were analyzed.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.61 no.4
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• pp.534-541
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• 2012

This paper tries to elicit an optimal generation mix of Korea. Two approaches, using the screening curve method and taking advantage of a generation expansion planning tool, WASP-IV, are applied in getting the mix. The data used in this study is based on the 5th basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand. The Load Duration Curve, that is needed for applying Screening Curve Method(SCM), is made based on the load profile in 2010. In our using SCM, the nuclear plant's operation characteristic, carbon emission cost and spinning reserve are considered. In using WASP-IV to get the adequate generation mix, the base and target demand forecasts in the 5th basic plan are used and the carbon emission cost is also considered. In this paper, It introduces the domestic adequacy generation mix in 2024 though SCM and WASP-IV.

• The KSFM Journal of Fluid Machinery
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.52-62
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• 2008

All forecasts of a future energy demand anticipate an increase across the globe. With the increase of energy demand, the emission of $CO_2$ is also likely to increase by at least the same amount because energy supply will be based on fossil fuels, which is more apparent in a number of developing countries. In this context, the Micro Gas Turbine (MGT) is being considered as a promising solution. In order to propose a feasible concept of those technologies such as improving environmental effect and economics, we performed a sensitivity study for a biomass fueled MGT using a simulation model. The study consists of 1) the fundamental modeling using manufacturer's technical specifications, 2) the correction with the experimental data, and 3) the sensitivity study for system parameters. The simulation model was developed by PEPSE-GT 72, commercial steam/gas turbine simulation toolbox.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.77-83
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• 2002

본 연구에서는 가솔린 시계열 예측전문가들이 수요를 예측하고, 더 나아가 직감적으로 행하고 있는 보정과정을 자동화하기 위해 신경망을 사용한다. 가솔린 수요 예측분야에서 보정을 위해 사용되는 전형적인 판단요소는 정부 에너지 절약 정책, 에너지 산업의 파업, 공휴일 등이 있다. 주요 추세가 순환신경망에 의해 예측되고 이들 판단요소의 효과가 다층신경망에 의해 탐지되어 보정된다. 가솔린 수요에 대한 실험결과는 보정과정을 갖는 예측구조가 하나의 신경망을 사용하는 예측구조 보다 더 나은 예측력을 보였다. 그리고 본 연구에서 제시한 접근방법이 순환신경망이나 ARIMA 모델을 사용하는 것보다 더 나은 결과를 가졌다.