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http://dx.doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2016.27.2.275

Electricity forecasting model using specific time zone  

Shin, YiRe (Wise institute, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies)
Yoon, Sanghoo (Department of Computer Science and Statistics, Daegu University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society / v.27, no.2, 2016 , pp. 275-284 More about this Journal
Abstract
Accurate electricity demand forecasts is essential in reducing energy spend and preventing imbalance of the power supply. In forcasting electricity demand, we considered double seasonal Holt-Winters model and TBATS model with sliding window. We selected a specific time zone as the reference line of daily electric demand because it is least likely to be influenced by external factors. The forecasting performance have been evaluated in terms of RMSE and MAPE criteria. We used the observations ranging January 4, 2009 to December 31 for testing data. For validation data, the records has been used between January 1, 2012 and December 29, 2012.
Keywords
Electricity demand forecasting; multiple seasonal exponential smoothing; reference line; sliding window;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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